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1 7 5 Vol. 7 No Journal of Food Safety and Quality May, 2016 周萍萍 1, 张磊 1, 焦阳 2, 刘爱东 (1., ; 2., ) 1* 摘要 : 目的, 方法 16, (Delphi), Excel 2010 SPSS 17.0 结果,, 7, 2 ; 3, ; 2 LD 50, : 结论 7 关键词 : ; ; ; Establishment of risk classification index system of chemical hazards in imported food by Delphi method ZHOU Ping-Ping 1, ZHANG Lei 1, JIAO Yang 2, LIU Ai-Dong 1* (1. China National Center for Food Safety Risk Assessment, Beijing , China; 2. General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine of the People's Republic of China, Beijing , China) ABSTRACT: Objective To establish a risk classification index system of chemical hazards for imported food, so as to provide technical supports for the risk management of imported food. Methods Preliminary framework and 16 indicators were formulated based on literature review and expert consensus. By the modified Delphi method, the risk classification indexes made into questionnaire and expert consultation were conducted. Indicators were scored according to their importance and feasibility. Weights of indicators were calculated by Excel 2010 and SPSS Results After twice Delphi consultation, experts opinions tended to be uniform. The risk classification index system including 2 top level indicators (both severity and likelihood), 3 second level indicators (acute toxicity, long-term toxicity and detection rate of batches of hazardous chemical substance in unqualified imported food), and 2 third level indicators (including rat oral median lethal dose (LD 50 ) and health-based guidance value or carcinogenicity, mutagenicity, reproductive toxicity, neurotoxicity, chronic toxicity, which expressed various toxicity category 基金项目 : (2015BAK36B04); (2015K179). Fund: Supported by National Key Technology Support Program(2015BAK36B04) and the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine of the People s Republic of China Science and Technology Project (2015K179). * 通讯作者 :,, liuaidong@cfsa.net.cn *Corresponding author: LIU Ai-Dong, Associate Professor, China National Center for Food Safety Risk Assessment, Building 2, 37 Guangqu Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 10022, China. liuaidong@cfsa.net.cn

46 结论 7 关键词 : ; ; ; Establishment of risk classification index system of chemical hazards in imported food by Delphi method ZHOU Ping-Ping 1, ZHANG Lei 1, JIAO Yang 2, LIU Ai-Dong 1* (1.

2 5, : 2115 indicators) was established. Their weights were 0.52, 0.48, 0.37, 0.30, 0.33, 0.54 and 0.46, respectively. Conclusion Seven indicators selected have a certain significance for risk management working of food safety. KEY WORDS: Delphi method; imported food; chemical hazards substance; risk classification 1 引言,,,,,,,,,, [1], [2], 2 资料与方法 2.1 研究方法,, 16,, 2,, [3] [4] [4], 专家遴选 30,, ; 统计分析 Excel 2010, Excel 2010 SPSS 17.0 (); (); Kendall (Kendall s coefficient of concordance W)( ) [5-7] 2 : [8-10] 2.4 评价指标筛选方法,,, SPSS 17.0 >3.50, >20%, <0.25 [8,11] 3 结果 3.1 专家的基本情况和权威程度,, 10, 88% C α, C S 1, C α 0.721; C S 0.763; C r =(C α +C S )/2=( )/2=0.742 C r 0.70 [4],,, 30, 表 1 指标重要性和可操作性等级判断依据熟悉程度评分表 Table 1 Scores of indicator importance and feasibility level, judgments basis and familiarity

KEY WORDS: Delphi method; imported food; chemical hazards substance; risk classification 1 引言,,,,,,,,,, [1], [2], 2 资料与方法 2.1 研究方法,, 16,, 2,, [3] [4] [4], 1 2.2 专家遴选 30,, ; 10 2.

3 专家的积极程度 30, 30, 100.0%; 30, 27, 90.0%, 3.3 专家意见的协调程度, (W) ,, W 0.446, (W) x 指标体系的筛选与修订 16, 2, 8, 6, : ; 11 20%; ,, , 4, ( ), 确定评价指标的权重 : X 1 4.9/( )= Table 2 表 2 两轮咨询专家意见协调程度 Expertise coordination level in 2 rounds of consultation (W) x 2 P (W) x 2 P (n=30) (n=27) Table 3 表 3 第一轮专家问卷中指标重要性和可操作性评分 (n=30) Scores of importance and feasibility level of indicators in the first round of expert questionnaire(n=30) (%) (%)

330 148.494 0.000 0.339 152.626 0.000 (n=27) 7 0.446 72.318 0.

4 5, : 2117 续表 3 (%) (%) LD : ; : ; ; /; ; (, ) ,, Table 4 表 4 经两轮专家咨询后确定的进口食品中化学性危害物质风险分级指标及权重值 Risk classification indicators of chemical hazards in imported food and their weights after 2 rounds of expert consultation X X X X X LD 50 X : ; : ; ; /; ; X 讨论 4.1 德尔菲专家咨询法的应用 [12],,,,,,,,, (0.742)( 100.0% 90.0 %), 4.2 风险的定义及分级指标体系的拟定, [13] 2,

indicators of chemical hazards in imported food and their weights after 2 rounds of expert consultation X 1 4.9 0.52 X 2 4.4 0.48 X 3 4.9 0.37 X 4 3.9 0.30 X 5 4.

5 2118 7,,,, 2 [1,12,14],, 2,,,,,, LD 50 ;, ( / ) [15], (acceptable daily intake, ADI) (tolerable daily intake, TDI) ;, / (International Agency for Research on Cancer, IARC) (European Union, EU)EU ( )(EPA) EU,, 2 [16] - 2 :,, ;,, 2,,,,,,, 参考文献 [1],. -- () [M]. :, Chen JS, Fan YX. Food safety risk analysis a guide for national food safety authorities (FAO) [M]. Beijing: People's Medical Publishing House, [2] European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). Scientific Opinion on the development of a risk ranking toolbox for the EFSA BIOHAZ Panel 1 EFSA Panel on Biological Hazards [EB/OL] ocuments/3939.pdf [3],,,. Delphi [J]., 2014, 18(4): Wu GS, Li Y, Liu LY, et al. Study on medical risk identification tools evaluation based on Delphi method [J]. Chin Hospitals, 2014, 18(4): [4]. PPH [D]. :, Wang JY PPH treatment of hemorrhoids Integrative Nursing Path based on Delphi Method [D]. Beijing: Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, [5],,. [J]., 2014, 43(9): Xu Q, Xu D, Li FS. Application of Delphi method to establish the development of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, "fast", "slow" evaluation criteria [J]. Chongqing Med, 2014, 43(9): [6]. [D]. :, Deng F. Evaluation on mental health legislation by Delphi method [D]. Changsha: Central South University, [7],,. Kendall w SPSS [J]., 2010, 31(7): Cheng C, Liu YZ, Wang RD. The test for Kendall s coefficient of concordance w conducted by SPSS [J]. J Taishan Med Coll, 2010, 31(7): [8],. Delphi [J]., 2011, 20(4): Ren HL, Li Q. Study of the establishment of index evaluation system of the risk of post-marketing drugs with Delphi Method [J]. Chin J Pharmacoepidemiol, 2011, 20(4): [9],,,. [J]., 2016, (1): Wei YD, Zhang RJ, Zhang XW, et al. Using Delphi method to establish evaluation indicator system for the emergency response capability of centers for disease control and prevention [J] Zhejiang J Prev Med, 2016,

Beijing: People's Medical Publishing House, 2008. [2] European Food Safety Authority (EFSA).

6 5, : 2119 (1): [10],,,. Delphi [J]., 2010, 10(8): SUN Y, WANG XH, LU XY, et al. A primary study on applying Delphi method for performance appraisal indicators of nursing staff in general hospitals of first-class[j] Chin Nurs Manag, 2010,10(8): [11] ; ; ; [J]., 2015, 35(2): LIU J; HE WY; FANG PQ. Construction of the risk factors evaluation indicator for surgical operation by Delphi method [J]. Chin Hospital Manag, 2015, 35(2): [12]. (Delphi) [D]. : (), Ye F. A study on the descriptive definition and evaluation criterion of subhealth using modified Delphi method [D]. Beijing: Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, [13],. [J]., 2007, (3): Zhang G, Hu YN. Educational equipment evaluation based on comprehensive evaluation theory [J]. Edu Technol Equip China, 2007, (3): [14] Pamela AE, Zachary FL. Risk matrix user's guide version 2.2 [EB/OL]. ( ). [15] Food and Drug Administration. Quantitative risk assessment on the public health impact of pathogenic vibrio parahaemolyticus in raw oysters [Z]. [16] Ontario Ministry of Agriculture and Food. Draft Food Safety Universe Database. A Semi-Quantitative Risk Assessment Tool Food Safety Universe Database Ontario Ministry of Agriculture and Food [EB/OL] 作者简介 ( 责任编辑 : 姚菲 ) 周萍萍, 副研究员, 主要研究方向为食品安全与食品化学性风险评估 zhoupingping@cfsa.net.cn 刘爱东, 副研究员, 主要研究方向为食品安全 liuzhaoping@cfsa.net.cn

, 2015, 35(2): 51 53. LIU J; HE WY; FANG PQ. Construction of the risk factors evaluation indicator for surgical operation by Delphi method [J]. Chin Hospital Manag, 2015, 35(2): 51 53. [12].

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