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1 CHINA POPULATION RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT Vol. 28 No J MA Limei SHI Dan PEI Qingbing. Low-carbon transformation of China s energy in renewable energy development and feasible path J. China population resources and environment CGE GDP % 100% F A DOI /cpre CCUS % % % % KAYA malimeicass@ 163. com shidan01@ 163. com 15JGA M

2 CGE 1 NBR The National Bureau of Asian Research % 18% 9. 0% 15. 3% 5. 9% 0. 7% % GDP 15 OLG - CGE 35% GDP 6 OECD Duro Padilla 7 KAYA 2 Theil Kaya CO 2 GDP CO 2 2% ~ 3% 2013 GDP ~ Ocal Aslan 9 1 Apergis Salim GDP GDP GDP GDP 2005 GDP 9

3 C i = P i G i /P i EC i /G i C i /EC i 3 EC i i G i /P i GDP EC i /G i C i /EC i 3 C i /P i = G i /P i EC i /G i C i /EC i 4 GDP GDP Yamaji 1 KAYA Fig. 1 Per capita carbon dioxide emissions of major countries GDP 2 3 KAYA GDP 2 KAYA KAYA GDP GDP GDP 2 GDP GDP KAYA 2. 2 KAYA GDP KAYA % 1995 GDP C y C x = P y G /P P y / G /P x C /G y / C /G x x ΔC y 1 i C x GDP C i = P i G i /P i C i /G i 2 2 GDP % C P G GDP x y GDP GDP ΔP GDP y P x 10

4 % % % 36% 52% % % 43. 9% 46. 1% % 57. 6% % % 36. 4% 62. 5% Fig. 2 2 KAYA KAYA decomposition of carbon emissions from major countries CO 2 KAYA IEA 11

5 % 40% 54% % 5% 0. 4% % 8% 2% % 19 30% % GDP 50% 60% 55% % GDP % % % % % 1 Tab. 1 Comparison of industrial structure evolution between China and Japan ~ ~ ~ ~ 2 39 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1 40 ~ ~ 66 1 ~ 1 32 ~ ~ 71 12

6 % 2035 GDP GDP GDP % 6% 2 Tab. 2 Proportion of clean energy consumption in major countries /% /% /% 25 ~ 23 5 ~ 4 4 ~ ~ 37 5 ~ ~ 2 16 ~ ~ 9 1 ~ 5 11 ~ 16 3 ~ 40 9 ~ 5 6 ~ 15 3 ~ 13 6 ~ 5 22 ~ 30 4 ~ 6 4 ~ ~ 34 8 ~ 6 2 ~ 5 22 ~ 20 9 ~ 1 5 ~ ~ ~ 41 5 ~ 8 15 ~ ~ 2 5 ~ 6 EIA U. S. Energy Information Administration WDI CGE CCUS 1 Tab. 3 3 Comparison of carbon emission drivers CO 2 /t GDP / $ /kg / $ % WDI 13

7 CO 2 IPCC Bao Constant Elasticity of Transformation CET CES 3 CGE S Bao 21 10% 2. 0% Hotelling 75% % 48% 1. 5% 0. 1% 2 S % - 20% % 3. 76% 60% 3 S % % CGE p c c t p c o t p c g t p c n t p c r t CO 2 CGE p o c t p o o t p o g t p o n t p o r t 5 P = p g c t p g o t p g g t p g n t p g r t p n c t p n o t p n g t p n n t p n r t Constant Elasticity of Substitution CES p r c t p r o t p r g t p r n t p r r t c o g n r p c c t 20 CES p c o t Y i t = α c i t CX ρ E i i t + α n i t NX ρ E i i t + α r CO 2i t = 5 f = 1C f Energy f t i 5 6 9% 0. 3% i t RX ρ E i i t 1 /ρ E i P Y i t CX i t NX i t RX i t i t t t + T 1 P α t i 0 α c i t + α n i t + α r i t = 1 ρ E i = 1 P 0 ρ E i - 1 /σ E i σ E i i 3 i CO 2 1 p c c t = 1 p c o t = 0 p c g t = 0 p c n t = 0 p c r t = 0 CO 2i t i t CO 2 c f 2 p c c t < 1 p o c t = 0 p g c t = 0 p n c t = 0 p r c t = p c c t s 0 t + T - s 0 p c o t = s 0 t + T - s 0 t + s g t + T - s g t + s n t + T - s n t + s r t + T - s r p c c t < p c c t s g t + T - s g p p c g t 0 c g t = s 0 t + T - s 0 t + s g t + T - s g t + s n t + T - s n t + s r t + T - s r 3 p c n t p c c t s n t + T - s n p c n t = p c r t 0 s 0 t + T - s 0 t + s g t + T - s g t + s n t + T - s n t + s r t + T - s r 1 - p c c t s r t + T - s r p c r t = s 0 t + T - s 0 t + s g t + T - s g t + s n t + T - s n t + s r t + T - s r t 14

8 P S* 2025 = S 2014 P 28 Φ = p 1 /11 S* t + 1 = S t Φ 2020 S * CGE 2010 IMF World Economic Outlook Database S2 S3 S CO 2 S S GDP Felipe S Tab. 4 4 Carbon emissions and economic development in various scenarios CO 2 / t GDP /10 4 GDP / S S S GDP kw 3. 8 kw 2 kw 1 kw kw 15

9 % % GDP 4. 2 GDP 1 GDP % 4 GDP 4. 1 GDP 31 CGE References 1 World Wildlife Fund. China s future generation 2. 0 R. Beijing WWF R Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission. China 2050 high renewable energy penetration scenario and roadmap study R M Chinese Academy of Engineering Project Team. China energy medium and GDP long term development strategy research comprehensive volume M. Beijing Science Press J SHI Dan WANG Lei. Energy revolution 16

10 and its effects on economic development J. Industrial economy research J WANG Lanti CAI Guotian ZHAO Daiqing. An analysis of China s renewable energy technology innovation based on patent perspective ZHANG Xiaodi LIU Xueyue. Carbon tax and development of renewable energy research growth and welfare effect J. Research on science and technology management economic measures for CO 2 reduction in Japan J. Energy policy 6. OECD J SHAO Qinglong RAO Lei. An analysis of the influencing factors of renewable energy innovation an empirical test based on OECD countries J. Soft science DURO J A PADILLA E. International inequalities in per capita CO 2 emissions a decomposition methodology by Kaya factors J. Energy economics CO 2 J FENG Xiangzhao ZOU Ji. Economic analysis of CO 2 emission trend in China J. China population resources and environment OCAL O ASLAN A. Renewable energy consumption-economic growth nexus in Turkey J. Renewable and sustainable energy reviews APERGIS N SALIM R. Renewable energy consumption and unemployment evidence from a sample of 80 countries and nonlinear estimates J. Applied economics J. System engineering - theory and practice J QI 355. Shaozhou LI Yang. Does renewable energy consumption drive 21 BAO Q TANG L ZHANG Z X. Impacts of border carbon economic growth an empirical study based on EU J. World adjustments on China s sectoral emission simulations with a economic studies J review LIN Boqiang LI Jianglong. China s energy structure transition under environmental governance constraints based on coal and carbon dioxide peak analysis J. Social sciences in China J DU Xiangwan LIU Xiaolong YANG Bo et al. An international comparative study of China s energy development space J. Chinese engineering science J J. DU Xiangwan YANG Bo LIU Xiaolong et al. Decoupling analysis of China s economic development energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission J. China population resources and environment OLG-CGE J. analysis based on OLG-CGE model J. China industrial economics YAMAJI K MATSUHASHI R NAGATA Y et al. A study on 17. J SHI Dan MA Cuiping. Analysis on the driving factors of China s energy demand and the effect of energy conservation and emission reduction J. Contemporary finance and economics KUCERA D MILBERG W. Deindustrialization and changes in manufacturing trade factor content calculations for J. Review of world economics M GAO Bo. Economic ideology and Japanese industrial policy M. Translated by AN Jia. Shanghai Shanghai People s Publishing House CGE J TANG Ling BAO Qin WANG Mingxi. Suspension of nuclear power project approval and achievement of China s emission reduction target based on CGE model analysis dynamic computable general equilibrium model J. China economic 22. CGE J ZHANG Youguo. Performance comparison of carbon strength and total constraint an analysis based on CGE model J. World economy M Research Group of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Economic blue book analysis and forecast of China s economic situation in 2015 M. Beijing Social Science Literature Publishing House LI Shantong. Prospects of China s economic growth in the twelfth five-year plan period to 2030 J. Economic research reference M WANG Feng. Driving factors of 17

11 China s carbon emission growth and evaluation of emission reduction policy M. Beijing Economic Science Press FELIPE J ABDON A KUMAR U. Tracking the middle-income trap what is it who is in it and why J. SSRN electronic journal D. 31. J QIN Jia. Medium income trap theory SHI Dan. Promoting the development of low experience and China s development D. Tianjin Nankai University M HUANG Qunhui HE Jun et al. Real industrial policy historical experience and latest practice of developed countries to promote industrial development M. Beijing Economic Management Press M RIFKIN J. The third industrial revolution how the new economic model changed the world M. Translated by ZHANG Tiwei SUN Yuning. Beijing China CITIC Press MARKILLIE P. The third industrial revolution N. The economist carbon industrialization with energy transformation J. China national conditions and strength SU Q H WANG Q X WANG D J et al. Spatial and temporal variation of energy carbon emissions in Yantai from 2001 to 2011 J. Chinese journal of population resources and environment LIU Y ZHOU M F FENG S H et al. Rebound effect and its decomposition an analysis based on energy types in China J. Chinese journal of population resources and environment Low-carbon transformation of China s energy in renewable energy development and feasible path MA Li-mei 1 2 SHI Dan 2 PEI Qing-bing 3 1. China Center for Special Economic Zone Research Shenzhen University Shenzhen Guangdong China 2. Institute of Industrial Economics Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Beijing China 3. Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission Beijing China Abstract In the context of the new round of industrial revolution the third round energy revolution is quietly occurring and China is now on the crossroads of energy transformation. Most of existing studies on the path of energy transformation focus on energy transformation itself ignoring the important feature of linking energy transition to the stage of economic development that is what kind of energy transformation program will have the costs in the near future can be absorbed by the economic system and in the long term can promote the sustainable economic growth In view of this this paper uses CGE model and transnational comparisons to study China s energy transformation and economic development. Based on the results the feasible path of China s energy transformation is divided into three stages. During China s economy enters the new normal is experiencing economic growth shift period structural adjustment pain period and early stimulating policy digestion period which is called three-superimposed stage but also an important period across the middle income trap. In this period the government should take moderate means on energy transformation because high proportion of renewable energy development will have a great negative impact on the economy which is not feasible. During it is the period which will determine the direction of energy transformation. We can either set up a higher proportion targets of renewable energy development or the fossil energy may still dominant the energy system due to its clean itself potential. The direction of transformation should be closely linked with the new round of industrial revolution. During it is the mature period of energy transformation and renewable energy development will enter a new stage. China s energy system may have two possibilities. One is that by 2050 renewable energy accounted for more than 60% in the primary energy consumption structure. The other is that in some areas renewable energy can provide 100% of energy consumption and in the entire energy supply system fossil energy and non-fossil energy will equally share the market. Key words 18 energy transformation industry revolution renewable energy middle income trap low-carbon development

by industrial structure evolution from 1952 to 2007 and its influence effect was first acceleration and then deceleration second the effects of indust

by industrial structure evolution from 1952 to 2007 and its influence effect was first acceleration and then deceleration second the effects of indust 2011 2 1 1 2 3 4 1. 100101 2. 100124 3. 100039 4. 650092 - - - 3 GDP U 20-30 60% 10% TK01 A 1002-9753 2011 02-0042 - 10 Analysis on Character and Potential of Energy Saving and Carbon Reducing by Structure