Prismark Presentation for CPCA (7_27_15)

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PRISMARK PRESENTATION PREPARED FOR: CPCA Shenzhen, China July 27, 2015 EXPANDING CHINESE PCB INDUSTRY AND GLOBAL MARKET UPDATE PREPARED BY: PRISMARK

1 PRISMARK PRESENTATION PREPARED FOR: CPCA Shenzhen, China July 27, 2015 EXPANDING CHINESE PCB INDUSTRY AND GLOBAL MARKET UPDATE PREPARED BY: PRISMARK PARTNERS LLC 130 Main Street Cold Spring Harbor NY Tel: Fax: Prismark Partners LLC 1

2 315.9/239jd Computer ELECTRONICS SYSTEMS MARKET FORECAST 14/13 % Growth 15/14 % Growth E 2015F 2019F CAAGR PC $ $ $264 $ % Server/Storage $ $ $107 $ % Other $ $ $117 $ % Mobile Phones $ $ $384 $ % Communications Infrastructure $ $ $153 $ % Other $ $ $25 $25 1.1% Consumer $ $ $157 $ % Automotive $ $ $201 $ % Industrial $ $ $135 $ % Industrial/Medical PV $ $ $34 $48 8.9% Medical $ $ $99 $ % Military/Aerospace $ $ $130 $ %... Total ($Bn) $1, % $1, % $1,806 $2, % (3.5% ex. PV) Prismark Partners LLC 2

3 OVERALL ELECTRONICS MARKET SUMMARY JULY /239bp Near zero growth is seen at system level for 1H 2015 vs 1H 2014 Exceptions are Apple and Huawei, each with ~30% growth largely at expense of others Select leading OEM Electronics revenue was down -1.7% in Q1 vs Q PC market including tablet expected to see mid to high single digit percentage unit declines in 2015 Mobile phone growth in 2015 likely to come mostly from Apple, Huawei, and Xiaomi Most other suppliers are seeing flat or declining sales in 1H China smartphone market seems saturated. Growth in 2015 coming from emerging economies Automotive production units continue modest growth, but electronics sales value from Tier 1 players was down in Q Communication and data storage infrastructure were initially expected to be strong, but Q results were mixed 4G base station installation in China of 1H 2015 was slower than expected Industrial motor drive and defense were flat or had single digit revenue declines in Q1 vs last year Medical electronics still expect 4-5% value growth for 2015 Prismark Partners LLC 3

4 ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY OUTLOOK Global stagnant economic development has constrained the expansion of electronics industry. 2014: GDP growth 3.3%; Electronics 3.4%. Semiconductor 9.9%, PCB 2.3% 2015E: GDP 3.5%; Electronics 2% to 3.5%; Semiconductor -2% to 2%; PCB/Substrate/FPC 0% to -3%. For the past 7 years, the electronics industry was largely driven by consumerfacing products, applications and segments, including global infrastructure to access network. Software and user interface experience have become more critical than hardware features or functionality. Consequences: Winners take all, Volatile seasonality cycle, Time-to-market, Low cost 2015 Themes: Apple and Huawei, PC declines, Smartphone market deceleration, Inventory adjustment, Strong US dollar. What is next? Future is hard to predict, and major technology innovation has become much more costly and difficult. Consumer driven, high-speed wireless connectivity, green energy, function integration, portable, and social media are the potential themes. Prismark Partners LLC 4

5 715.9/239bp PCB MARKET OUTLOOK JULY 2015 PCB demand was weak from April onward Potential recovery from August to November Expect market decline of 0% to -3% in dollars for full year PCB supply chain in Korea remains weak in 1H 2015 CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) demand was mostly weak in 1H Recovery in August is expected Multilayer PCB down across most end segments. Automotive and aerospace only stable ones so far Google among others are pushing out PCB orders by 1 to 2 months Apple and Huawei are drivers of HDI and FPC boards. Supply chains for other smartphone companies were either flat or slow Packaging substrate market was weak in 1H 2015 Declining in PC demand and weak networking market Qualcomm, NVIDIA, AMD, and MediaTek have been soft Inventory adjustment Prismark Partners LLC 5

6 $Bn $35 $30 $ /2019 PCB PRODUCTION PROFILES GROWTH 3.1% CAAGR $25.5 Americas Europe Japan China Asia (Ex. Japan, Ex. China) $21.8 $20 $15 $10 2.8% CAAGR $9.5 $ % CAAGR 1.3% CAAGR $10.0 $8.3 $7.6 $ % CAAGR $13.8 $11.5 $5 kc kk-growth F F F F F Commodity Multilayers Microvia *Package Flex (Paper, Composite, PCBs Substrates Rigid Glass) March 2015 Prismark Partners LLC 6

7 315.3/044kk PCB PRODUCTION FORECAST BY PRODUCT TYPE / E/ E 2019F CAAGR Commodity $8, % $8,242 0% to -5% $8,425 $9, % Multilayer $21, % $21,833 0% to -5% $22,511 $25, % Microvia $8, % $8,288 0% to 2% $8,552 $9, % Silicon Platform $7, % $7,598 0% to -5% $7,638 $8, % Flex $11, % $11,476 2% to 5% $11,878 $13, % TOTAL $56, % $57,437 1% to -3% $59,005 $66, % June 2015 Prismark Partners LLC 7

8 515.3/044skc S. Korea 14.5% GEOGRAPHIC MIGRATION OF PCB PRODUCTION 2013 Americas ROW 5.4% Europe 7.4% 3.9% Japan 12.5% S. Korea 13.3% ROW 7.4% 2014E Americas Americas 5.2% Europe Europe ROW 4.3% 3.1% 3.9% 8.5% Japan 7.5% Japan 11.4% S. Korea 13.0% 2019F Taiwan 12.7% Taiwan 13.2% Taiwan 13.2% China 43.7% China 45.6% China 50.3% Total: $56,152M Total: $57,437M Total: $66,868M / E 2019F CAAGR Americas $3, % $2,977 $2, % Europe $2, % $2,219 $2, % Japan $6, % $6,531 $5, % China $24, % $26,203 $33, % Taiwan $7, % $7,586 $8, % Korea $8, % $7,645 $8, % ROW $4, % $4,276 $5, % Global Total $56, % $57,437 $66, % May 2015 Prismark Partners LLC 8

9 PCB MANUFACTURING BY COMPANY ORIGIN CHINESE PCB COMPANIES CONTINUE TO GAIN SHARE ROW, SEA 2.5% Americas 10.4% ROW, SEA 2.6% Americas 10.1% Taiwan 28.4% Europe 5.1% Taiwan 29.3% Europe 5.1% N skc-comporig Japan 20.2% Japan 19.3% Korea 15.5% Korea China Mainland 14.3% China HK 13.3% 4.6% China HK 4.5% China Mainland 14.8% TOTAL: $56,151M TOTAL: $57,437M Prismark Partners LLC 9

10 LEADING PCB MANUFACTURERS Sales (US$M) HQ Prismark Partners LLC / Business Focus and Direction 1 Nippon Mektron Japan $2,240 $2,632 $2, % $2,997 Geographically diversified; sales including assembly value 2 Zhen Ding (Foxconn) Taiwan $1,505 $1,880 $2, % $2,496 Expanded Aggressively in Flexible PCB 3 UMTC (with Subtron) Taiwan $2,370 $2,377 $2, % $2,149 Focus on IC substrates, HDI boards, and China manufacturing 4 Young Poong (Inc. KCC and Interflex)* Korea $1,255 $1,555 $2, % $1,650 Leading FPC supplier group in Korea 5 SEMCO Korea $1,445 $1,867 $1, % $1,551 Focusing on IC substrates, HDI and Rigid/Flex Production 6 Ibiden Japan $2,126 $2,094 $1, % $1,455 Majority of sales from substrates; expansion HDI production in Malaysia 7 Tripod Taiwan $1,395 $1,325 $1, % $1,400 HDI, memory modules and multilayer boards 8 TTM US $1,428 $1,350 $1, % $1,326 Leading US quick turn PCB and defense supplier plus China Production (Meadville). Will merge with Viasystems 9 Sumitomo Electric Industry (SEI) Japan $880 $1,184 $1, % $1,279 Flexible circuit manufacturer 10 Daeduck Group Korea $970 $1,080 $1, % $1,222 Diversified product offerings; Aggressive IC substrate supplier 11 Nan Ya PCB Taiwan $1,290 $975 $1, % $1,154 Majority of sales from IC substrates 12 Compeq Taiwan $811 $905 $1, % $1,116 Leading HDI producer and expanding rigid/flex business 13 Viasystems US $1,135 $1,080 $1, % $1,050 Focus on automotive markets and high layercount PCBs, Quick turn production in US. Will merge with TTM. 14 Kingboard (E&E) China/HK $1,040 $935 $ % $965 Vertically integrated with materials 15 PSA (HannStar and GBM) Taiwan $1,290 $1,100 $ % $958 Specializes in automotive, notebook PC motherboards 16 AT&S Europe $690 $698 $ % $829 Largest European PCB company and leading HDI supplier in China. Investing in IC substrates. 17 Kinsus (with Piotek) Taiwan $782 $746 $ % $824 Includes Piotek - substrate production 18 LG Innotek Korea $625 $666 $ % $802 Diversified product offerings including COF substrates, HDI, and flexible PCBs 19 TPT (Taiwan PCB Techvest) Taiwan $544 $748 $ % $790 Focus on display market and conventional PCBs 20 Meiko Japan $740 $695 $ % $749 Expanding in China and Vietnam; strong automotive sector 21 Flextronics-Multek USA/ Producer of HDI and advanced ML boards with production focus $840 $780 $ % $730 Singapore in China 22 Chin Poon Taiwan $540 $593 $ % $701 Focus on automotive and consumer electronics 23 Gold Circuits Taiwan $572 $510 $ % $664 Leading notebook PC motherboard and advanced ML board supplier. 24 Shinko Japan $900 $870 $ % $663 Advanced IC substrate supplier 25 WUS Taiwan $630 $645 $ % $659 Focus on high layercount boards 26 Nitto Denko Japan $566 $523 $ % $654 Flexible circuit manufacturer 27 Simmtech Korea $552 $559 $ % $632 PCB and substrate manufacturer focus on memory products. 28 MFLEX USA $830 $870 $ % $631 Flex circuit manufacturing in China. 29 CMK Japan $845 $845 $ % $605 Conventional PCB for automotive market 30 Shennan PCB China $300 $369 $ % $593 Focus on high layercount. Expansion in Wuxi. TOTAL $31,136 $32,456 $32, % $33,296 March /316skc

11 2014 年 1-12 月中国 PCB 企业发展状况此次接受问卷调查并提供有效数据的有 85 家厂商. 在 2014 年 1~12 月的产品总产量约为 9002 万平方米, 比去年同期增长 6.0%; 销售总额达 760 亿人民币 ( 约 124 亿美元 ), 同比增长 8.2% 按产值计算, 这 85 家企业代表了约 47.5% 的 2014 全年中国大陆 PCB 生产产值 (261 亿美元 ), 其中包含 63 家内资 PCB 公司和 22 家外资企业他们的产品销售额占比分别为 53% 和 47%, 比 2013 年同期增长率分别为 12.4% 和 3.9% 15 家大型 PCB 企业在 2014 年的总销售额达到 241 亿人民币, 占着 62 家内资 PCB 企业销售额总和的 61%, 同比增长 14.2% 19 家中型 PCB 企业 2014 年的总销售额达到 102 亿人民币, 相较 2013 年的总销售额 92.7 亿人民币增长了 10.2% 2014 年多层板产量和销售额比去年同期分别增长 12.1% 和 15.2% 从产品产量来看, 内资 PCB 企业大量扩产, 增幅高达 19.7%, 而外资 PCB 企业基本维持不变, 增幅为 3.4% 从产品销售额来看, 内资和外资 PCB 厂商也都获得两位数以上的, 分别为 16.8% 和 14.5% 内资 PCB 企业虽然在 HDI 生产方面起步较晚, 规模不大, 但近几年保持高速增长, 预计未来几年生产比重将进一步夸大 2014 年内资 HDI 产量增长 31.4%, 销售额增长 17.9% FPC 双面板和多层 / 刚挠结合板在 2014 年的产量和销售额大幅提高. Prismark Partners LLC 11

12 2014 年 1-12 月中国 PCB 厂商合计 PCB 公司类别产品产量 ( m2 ) 产品销售额 ( 亿 RMB) 内资 55,872,889 62,974, % % 外资 29,087,071 27,051, % % 合计 84,959,961 90,026, % % Prismark Partners LLC 12

13 2014 年 1-12 月中国内资 PCB 厂商合计 2013 Sales 2014 Sales Growth 产品产量 ( m2 ) Growth 2014 ASP Companies ( 亿 RMB) ( 亿 RMB) % % (RMB/m 2 ) Large PCB Companies (Sales >$150M) % 28,567,327 33,210, % Medium PCB Companies (Sales $50M to $150M) % 12,155,461 14,276, % Small PCB Companies (Sales <$50M) % 15,093,999 15,282, % Total % 55,816,786 62,770, % Prismark Partners LLC 13

14 LEADING CHINESE PCB COMPANIES 615.3/316skc Chinese Name English Name Revenues (w/o tax) (10,000 RMB) Growth (%) Revenues (US$M) Prismark Partners LLC 14 Growth (%) 深南电路有限公司 Shennan Circuit 261, , % $425 $ % 珠海方正印刷电路板发展有限公司 Founder PCB (Zhuhai) 233, , % $380 $ % 深圳市景旺电子股份有限公司 Shenzhen Kinwong Electronic 173, , % $282 $ % 五株科技股份有限公司 Shenzhen Wuzhu Technology 183, , % $298 $ % 汕头超声印制板公司 CCTC (Goworld) 174, , % $284 $ % 深圳市崇达电路技术股份有限公司 Shenzhen Suntak Circuit Technology 124, , % $203 $ % 广东兴达鸿业电子有限公司 Guangdong Xingda Hongye PCB Co. 142, , % $231 $ % 深圳市兴森快捷电路科技股份有限公司 China Fastprint 124, , % $203 $ % 东莞生益电子有限公司 Dongguan Shengyi Electronics 121, , % $197 $ % 昆山华新电子集团有限公司 Kunshan Huaxin Electronics 107, , % $175 $ % 胜宏科技 ( 惠州 ) 股份有限公司 Victory Giant Technology (Huizhou) 98, , % $159 $ % 奥士康精密电路 ( 惠州 ) 有限公司 Aoshikang Group 74, , % $121 $ % 博敏电子股份有限公司 Bomin Electronics 98, , % $159 $ % 广东超华科技股份有限公司 Guangdong Chaohua Tech 81, , % $133 $ % 江苏苏杭电子有限公司 Suhang Electronic 88, , % $144 $ % 厦门弘信电子科技股份有限公司 Hon-Flex 67, , % $109 $ % 常州海弘 / 澳弘电子有限公司 Aohong Electronics 60, , % $98 $ % 安捷利实业有限公司 AKM 64, , % $105 $ % 永捷电子 ( 深圳 ) 有限公司 HT Circuits (Shenzhen) 55, , % $91 $98 8.1% 广州杰赛科技股份有限公司电子电路分公司 GCI Science & Technology PCB Div. 60, , % $99 $97-1.8% 深圳市精诚达电路科技股份有限公司 Shenzhen Jingchengda Circuit Technology 45, , % $74 $ % 深圳市新宇腾跃电子有限公司 Shenzhen Zhongxing Xinyu 41, , % $68 $ % 深圳市金百泽电子科技股份有限公司 Shenzhen King Brother 40, , % $66 $ % 北京凯迪思电路板有限公司 Beijing KDS 51, , % $83 $86 4.1% 恩达电路 ( 深圳 ) 有限公司 Yan Tat Printed Circuit (Shenzhen) 46, , % $75 $ % 天津普林电路股份有限公司 Tianjin Printronics Circuit 50, , % $82 $81-1.3%

15 PRODUCTION VALUE GROWTH OF CHINESE PCB COMPANIES Inputs: Number of Companies Sales ( 亿 RMB) Growth (%) 2014 Share (%) SS Rigid Board % 7.3% DS Rigid Board % 23.8% Multilayer Rigid Board % 46.4% HDI Board % 8.2% IC Substrate % 2.0% SS FPC Board % 1.2% DS FPC Board % 8.7% Multilayer/Rigid-Flex Board % 2.4% Total % 100.0% Prismark Partners LLC 15

16 PRODUCTION VOLUME EXPANSION OF CHINESE PCB COMPANIES Inputs: Number of Companies 产品产量 ( m2 ) Growth (%) 2014 Share (%) SS Rigid Board 34 20,782,576 19,922, % 33.7% DS Rigid Board 47 17,127,446 17,974, % 30.4% Multilayer Rigid Board 39 13,633,740 16,323, % 27.6% HDI Board 11 1,323,416 1,738, % 2.9% IC Substrate 3 51,315 96, % 0.2% SS FPC Board , , % 1.1% DS FPC Board 17 1,654,650 2,150, % 3.6% Multilayer/Rigid-Flex Board , , % 0.4% Total 55,667,262 59,104, % 100.0% Prismark Partners LLC 16

17 CHINESE PCB COMPANIES PRODUCT MIX COMPARISON 60.0% 50.0% Chinese PCB Companies China Total Production Global Product Mix kc715.cpca-mix 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Commodity Rigid Multilayer Rigid HDI Board IC Substrates FPC Circuits, Prismark Prismark Partners LLC 17

18 PCB 公司产品产量 ( m2 ) 类别 2014 年 1-12 月刚性单面板业务产品销售额 ( 亿 RMB) 内资 20,782,576 19,922, % % 外资 3,401,863 3,468, % % 合计 4,184,439 23,391, % % PCB 公司产品产量 ( m2 ) 类别 2014 年 1-12 月刚性双面板业务产品销售额 ( 亿 RMB) 内资 17,127,446 17,974, % % 外资 4,266,439 4,498, % % 合计 21,393,885 22,473, % % Prismark Partners LLC 18

19 PCB 公司类别 2014 年 1-12 月刚性常规多层板业务产品产量 ( m2 ) 产品销售额 ( 亿 RMB) 内资 13,633,740 16,323, % % 外资 12,145,257 12,562, % % 合计 25,778,997 28,885, % % PCB 公司产品产量 ( m2 ) 类别 2014 年 1-12 月 HDI 板业务产品销售额 ( 亿 RMB) 内资 1,323,416 1,738, % % 外资 2,689,067 2,629, % % 合计 4,012,483 4,368, % % Prismark Partners LLC 19

20 PCB 公司产品产量 ( m2 ) 类别 2014 年 1-6 月 FPC 单面板业务产品销售额 ( 亿 RMB) 内资 908, , % % 外资 1,059, , % % 合计 1,968,112 1,550, % % PCB 公司产品产量 ( m2 ) 类别 2014 年 1-6 月 FPC 双面板业务产品销售额 ( 亿 RMB) 内资 1,654,650 2,150, % % 外资 577, , % % 合计 2,231,650 2,840, % % Prismark Partners LLC 20

21 PCB 公司类别 2014 年 1-2 月 FPC 多层 / 刚挠结合板业务产品产量 ( m2 ) 产品销售额 ( 亿 RMB) 内资 185, , % % 外资 140, , % % 合计 325, , % % PCB 公司产品产量 ( m2 ) 类别 2014 年 1-12 月 IC 载板业务产品销售额 ( 亿 RMB) 内资 51,315 96, % % 外资合计 51,315 96, % % Prismark Partners LLC 21

22 2014 年 1-12 月 PCB 和相关公司人工和管理费用占比 PCB 公司人工费用占比类别管理费用占比内资 14.7% 14.9% 0.2% 8.9% 8.5% -0.4% 外资 14.7% 15.5% 0.9% 7.1% 7.5% 0.4% 合计 14.7% 15.2% 0.4% 8.3% 8.2% -0.1% 相关公司 6.1% 7.2% 1.0% 4.8% 5.4% 0.5% 2014 年 1-12 月 PCB 和相关公司利润率和人均产值 PCB 公司毛利润率净利润率人均产值 (RMB) 类别内资 18.7% 18.4% -0.3% 7.0% 7.2% 0.2% 394, , % 外资 16.4% 14.9% -1.5% 5.1% 4.1% -1.0% 395, , % 合计 17.9% 17.3% -0.6% 6.3% 6.1% -0.2% 394, , % 相关公司 8.2% 9.0% 0.8% 4.6% 4.3% -0.3% 1,147, , % Prismark Partners LLC 22

23 2014 年 1-12 月 CCL 业务 Products 产品产量 ( m2 ) 产品销售额 ( 亿 RMB) Composite CCL 12,781,532 13,370, % % FR-4 CCL 42,998,823 47,093, % % Halogen-free CCL 6,892,428 6,966, % % High T g CCL 5,777,624 6,637, % % Specialty CCL 1,294, , % % CCL Total 168,495, ,085, % % Prepreg 107,299, ,595, % % Prismark Partners LLC 23

24 Outlook of PCB Industry in China China will continue to be the leading production site of the PCB industry in the next few years. Capacity expansion in China by multinational companies has become more cautious and selective, Chinese PCB suppliers, on the other hand, are expected to grow aggressively in coming years. Local Chinese PCB companies are likely to expand by leveraging growing local demands and supporting equity market along with their competitive advantages in management, cost control and close proximity of established supply chain to gain global production share. High labor cost will force both local and multinational companies to adjust their product mix and to implement more automated processing. Chinese companies need to place more capital, technology and man power investments in HDI, substrate, and advanced flexible boards. There are challenges, however: Increasing labor cost Risky technology investment Challenging process and quality control of advanced products Customers relationship Prismark Partners LLC 24

25 THANK YOU Prismark Partners LLC 25

全球PCB產值趨勢分析

全球PCB產值趨勢分析 World PCB Production M USD 70,000 World Production Growth 30.00% 60,000 23.8% 58,310 60,640 20.00% 50,000 40,000 11.40% 42,707 5.30% -1.01% 33,098 32,764 34,490 14.30% 39,410 12.03% 7.59% 47,503 42,402