:,,,,,, 0 70 Blanchard Fischer (1989 ;,1998),: P t = E t P t +1 + cx t (1) T : P t = c 6 i E t x t + i + T+1 E t P t + T+1 < 1 x (1Π )

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1 : 3 ( 00433) :,,,,,,,,,,, :,,00 1 %, 19 %, , 1811 %, 514,,,,1998, ,, %; 3 %,: %,( ), 3316 %, 5 50 %,?,??? 3, ;,! 34

2 :,,,,,, 0 70 Blanchard Fischer (1989 ;,1998),: P t = E t P t +1 + cx t (1) T : P t = c 6 i E t x t + i + T+1 E t P t + T+1 < 1 x (1Π ) - 1, i = 0 T,c 6 E t x t + i t = 0 P 3, lim E t P t + T+1 T = 0, P t = P 3, P 3, b t b t =E t b t + l, P t = P 3 + b t (1),b t < 1,lim E t b t + i = - i b t b t > 0, b t < 0, b t i, b t = P t - P 3, b t, Blanchard Fischer,, :,; ; (), (,;,),,Tirole (198,1985) Weil (1987) Tirole (198), Tirole (1985) Weil (1987) (Diamond OLG Model),;,, () (Shiller,1981),,,, Flavin (1983) Marsh Merton (1986) ;Merton (1987),West (1987), { x n, n 1} (Martingale),n,E( x n ) < E( x n + 1 x 1, x,, x n ) = x n,romer (000),,,,, 35

3 :,Flood Garber (1980),,!,, ( ) ;,,, 0 80, Campbell Kyle (1988) ;De Long(1990) ;Allen Gorton (1991),, ; Allen (1993),,,, Wong(1998),, (Herding Effect) Krugman (1999),,, Allen (1998), (00) Allen,,,,,,,, ;, ;, :,, ;, : P 3 :P 3,,, YD, : G PH,; 1, : maxe t U s = H t+ i 6 {ln G t + i t = 0 : + ln ( E t P t + i H t + i ) }, s. t. G t + i + E t P t + i H t + i = YD ( E t P t + i H t + i ) s = YD,DD s ( 1) () , < 1,, 36

4 003 3 B, : (0 1), r (r,,) ; 1,,, c ( ) : maxe t s = H t+ i 6 E t P t + i H t + i - i = 0 ch t + i - r B, s. t. ch t + i = : ( E t P t + i ) s = ch t + i (1 + r) (3),,SS s ( 1) () (3) ( E t P t + i ) s = P s, u G = PH u PH G = 1 ; s = B (1 + r),, : P 3 = c (1 + r) YD : r ( L ),,, Ps 1 ( Ps, ) ; (0 << 1) : maxe t U l = H t+ i 6 ln[ G t + i - (1 + r) L t + i - 1 Ps ] + ln ( E t P t + i H t + i ) i = 0 s. t. G t + i + E t P t + i H t + i = YD + L t + i, L t + i = ( E t P t + i H t + i ),( L t + i - 1 = L t + i = L) : ( E t P t + i H t + i ) l = YD (1 + r) Ps (),1 - + (1 + r)ps < 1,0 << 1 Ps < r,( E t P t + i H t + i ) l > ( E t P t + i H t + i ) s,, DD s DD l (1) Ps < 1 Ps, 1 + r P max,p max,, Ps P P max,: Ps = Pro{ P P max } = P max 0 h ( P) dp ( h ( P),) (4) (5),B,,,U = lng + ln[ PH - (1 + r)l 3 Ps], 37

5 : (5) : ( E t P t + i H t + i ) l = YD + ( E t P t + i H t + i ) [1 - (1 + r) Ps ] = YD + L t + i [1 - (1 + r) Ps ] G t + i = YD + (1 + r) Ps L t + i, NG = G - (1 + r) Ps L = YD Ps < r,, Ps r,, 1 P 3 P,SS s, (3),, P P 3?, u NG = u NPH YDΠ + [1 - (1 + r) Ps ]L YDΠ > 1,, ;, ( ), P,,,,,, Pr 1 P min, P P min,pr = Pro{ P P min } = + P min h ( P) dp : maxe t l = H t+ i 6 i = 0 E t P t + i H t + i - ch t + i - rb - (1 + r) L t + i - 1 Pr, s. t. ch t + i = B + L t + i : ( E t P t + i ) l = ch t + i [1 + (1 + r) Pr] (6) r (3),(1 + r) Pr > r,pr > 1 + r,, SS l r (1) Pr > 1 + r, : l = ch [1 + (1 + r) Pr] - ch Π - rb - (1 + r) Pr L = ( B + L) [1 + (1 + r) Pr] - (1 + r) B - [1 + (1 + r) Pr]L = B [1 - r + (1 + r) Pr] + L [1 + (1 + r) Pr] B + L, l min r = ( B + L) (1 + r),,pr > 1 + r l > l min Pr = Pro{ P P min } = + h ( P) dp,, P min, P min,,,, P Blanchard Fischer (1989 ;,1998) E( ) = Pr 3 [ R - (1 + r)l ],R,;R,, 38

6 003 3 (1), 1, : 1 ( ) :,0 < < 1 Ps < r Pr > r, P P 3,, P = P 3 + b ; b b t = E t b t + i, : bπp 3, (5) (6) : P = c[1 + (1 + r) Pr] YD [1 - + (1 + r)ps ],(4) P 3 = P - P 3 P 3 = c (1 + r) YD b : P 3 = r + Pr (1 + r)ps - 1 1,d ( bπp 3 ) dr < 0, d ( bπp 3 ) d > 0,, ( ) b c YD,,, YD,,,,,,, : 1, Ps < r Pr > r 1 + r Ps = Pro{ P P max } = P max h ( P) dp,^p 0 ^P h ( P) dp = 0 < r P max < ^P Pr = Pro{ P P min } = + P min P P max P min h ( P) dp > 1 (), Ps 1 + r r 1 + r P min < ^P () :, P min P P max, P max < ^P,, ;P min < ^P, P P max ^P,, 1 (Ps < 1Π(1 + r) ) : (1), r R > r, 1 Ps < 1Π(1 + R) Pr > rπ(1 + R),,() 1,r 5 %, 951 %,418 %,,,1 39

7 : P mim P ^P,, P min P max ^P, r ^P, P max ^P, ; (5), P max YD,r, YD r P max,p P max,,, (6) c r ( ),c,, c ; r,p min, P min ^P, 1 : (c) ( YD) () (r) ( ) Π Π Π Π (1) P max ^P Π Π Π Π () ^P P ma Π Π (3) P min P ^P Π,, :1, (00), , , 1,,, ( ),,, : 40

8 Krugman(1999) (1) , 1395,, ; 1988 FSLIC, (( J ) 1983,,1991 ;6195 %, 3016 % %,, ; () 1986 ; 1999 ; Krug man, 1998 ; % 711 % S&L,,, 000) (, 000), , 1990,, 315 % : ( Krug man, 1998 ; 681, % ; ; (1990 3,,, ) 000 ; (,,;,1999 ; 4 000) :,,000 ;, :, ; ; 1990,,,,001), ,,,, , 80,0 %, ; , %, ,, ;, ( (, 1998 ; , Krugman, 1998 ;,001 ;, 00) ) 5,1996 ;, , 35 %,3 %, 4 % ; % 40 % ;,, 30 %, 41

9 : (),1997, (,001 ;,000), Tirole (198,1985) Weil (1987),, :, (),, ;,,,,,,, ( ), (),(,1995 ;,1998 ;,00),,, Pr Ps,, (),,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,1999 :,,,1998 : ( ) (1989 ),,,1999 :,,,,00 :,10,001 :, 4,000 :,,,,00 :,9,00 : (),0,1999 : :,, J,1991 :,,000 :,,,1995 :,11,000 :,,001 :, 10,001 :,,00 :, 8,00 :, 4

10 003 3,00 :,,001 :,,1998 :,4,000 :, 11,001 :,,00 :,10,00 :, 7 Allen, F. and Gorton, G., 1991,Rational Finite Bubbles, NBER Working Paper, No. w3707. Allen, F. Morris, S. and Postlewaite, A., 1993,Finite Bubbles with Short Sale Constraints and Asymmetric Information, Journal of Eco nomic Theory, Vol. 61, P06 9. Allen, F. and Gale, D., 1998,Bubbles and Crises, Working Paper, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Campbell, J. Y. and Kyle, A. S., 1988,Smart Money, Noise Trading, and Stock Price Behavior, NBER Technical Working Paper 7. DeLong, J. B., Shleifer, A., Summers, L. H. and Waldmann, R. J. 1990,Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 45, P Flavin, Marjorie, 1983,Excess Volatility in the Financial Markets : a Reassessment of the Empirical Evidence, Journal of Political Econo my, Vol. 91, P Flood, R. and Garber, P., 1980,Market Fundamentals versus Price Level Bubbles : The First Tests, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 88, P Marsh, T. and Merton, R., 1986,Dividend Variability and Variance Bounds Tests for the Rationality of Stock Market Prices, American Economic Review, Vol. 76, P Merton, Robert,1987,On the Current Sate of the Stock Market Rationality Hypothesis, in Rudiger Dornbusch et al. (eds. ) Macroeconom ics and Finance : Essays in Honor of Franco Modigliani, Cambridge, MA : MIT Press. Romer, David, 001, Advanced Macroeconomics (nd ed. ), The McGrawHill Co., Inc. Shiller, Robert, 1981,Do Stock Prices Move too Much to Be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?, American Economic Review, Vol. 71, P Tirole, Jean, 198,On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations, Econometrica, Vol. 50, P Tirole, Jean, 1985,Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations, Econometrica, Vol. 53, P Weil, Philippe, 1987,Confidence and the Real Value of Money in Overlapping Generation Models, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 10, P1. West, Kenneth, 1987,A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 10, P Wong Karjiu, 1998,Housing Market Bubbles and Currency Crisis : The Case of Thailand, Presented at the International Conference on The Asian Crisis : The Economics FrontHeld in Seattle, December ( : ) ( :) 43

11 InterGovernmental Transferment and Regional Economic Convergence in China Ma Shuanyou & Yu Hongxia ( Institute of Finance and Trade Economics,CASS) As an important policy for government to stimulate backward regions to develop, Intergovernmental transferment since the tax sharing system was established in 1994 in China is tested in terms of regional economic convergence, which concludes that it does not have effects on narrowing the provincial disparity, then the reason is explained by an empirical analysis of grants assignment in to its factors, and finally some policy suggestion is brought forward. Key Words : Intergovernmental transferment ;Western development ; Regional convergence JEL Classification : H700,H740,H10 An Analysis of Rational Bubbles in the Real Asset Market Yuan Zhigang and Fan Xiaoyan ( Economic Department,Fudan University) To promote the healthy development of Chinese real asset market,it is very crucial to prevent it from bubbling up. Based on the ra tionales of rational bubbles,we construct a local RAM equilibrium model and propose the relative conditions for the birth and exist ence as well as the burst of the rational bubbles. The model provides a simplified and comprehensive explanation on all the effects in forming rational bubbles by the individual s rational expectation,the bank s financing and the government s policies. Meanwhile the model is well consistent with several prominent cases of real asset bubbles in the past. Finally,some proposals are put forward in the macroeconomic perspective. Key Words : Bubble ; Real asset ;Macroeconomic regulation JEL Classification :L700,O110 Financial Intermediation and Relationship Banking Cao Min, He Jia &James Poon (CUHK, CUHK&CEIBS and ING) The study finds empirical support to the financial intermediation theories that the longer the banking relationship, the lower the rate on the foreign currency loans. It also finds empirical support to the rate reducing effects of other key factors such as the majority shareholding by the foreign sponsors, provision of third party guarantee. However, the renminbidenominated loan rate will be re duced as FIEs maintain relationship with more banks. This suggests that banks compete for customers by offering cheaper credits. If competition is the predominant determinant of loan pricing and that such level of competition does not stimulate more innovative and better quality bank services and products as a means of differentiation, the inflexible Renminbi loan pricing will ultimately de teriorate the profitability of the banks and affect the financial health of the banking system. Key Words : WTO ;financial intermediation ; relationship banking ; loan pricing JEL Classification :P40, P60 90

Myers Majluf 1984 Lu Putnam R&D R&D R&D R&D

Myers Majluf 1984 Lu Putnam R&D R&D R&D R&D 2018 1 156 1 2 2 1. 233030 2. 233030 2005 ~ 2015 A F830. 2 A 1008-2506 2018 01-0015-12 1 2015 1 2017-07-18 71540004 BBSLDQDKT2017B02 1990-1993 - 1964-1 15 2018 1 2025 2015 1 2011 2 + Myers Majluf 1984