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1 ICB / Quarterly Journal of Intenational Politics 63

2 1 2 1 The New York Times James Meernik Presidential Decision Making and The Political Use of Military Force International Studies Quarterly Vol. 38 No pp

3 James Meernik Domestic Politics and the Political Use of Military Force by the United States Political Research Quarterly Vol. 54 No pp Benjamin O. Fordham A Very Sharp Sword The Influence of Military Capabilities on American Decisions to Use Force Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol. 48 No pp Atsushi Tago Determinants of Multilateralism in US Use of Force State of Economy Election Cycle and Divided Government Journal of Peace Research Vol. 42 No pp Alex Mintz The Decision to Attack Iraq A Non-compensatory Theory of Decision Making Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol. 37 No pp David Brulé Explaining and Forecasting Leaders'Decisions A Poliheuristic Analysis of The Iran Hostage Rescue Decision International Studies Perspectives Vol. 6 No pp Alex Mintz Nehemia Geva Steven B. Redd and Amy Carnes The Effect of Dynamic and Static Choice Sets on Political Decision Making An Analysis Using the Decision Board Platform American Political Science Review Vol. 91 No pp Eben J. Christensen and Steven B. Redd Bureaucrats versus The Ballot Box in Foreign Policy Decision Making An Experimental Analysis of The Bureaucratic Politics Model and The Poliheuristic Theory Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol. 48 No pp Brad Podliska Taxonomy of Triggers for Unilateral or Multilateral U. S. Uses of Force A Poliheuristic Interpretation Prepared for Presentation at The 2006 International Studies Association Annual Convention San Diego California March Ahmer Tarar Diversionary Incentives and the Bargaining Approach to War International Studies Quarterly Vol. 50 No pp R. Harrison Wagner War and the State The Theory of International Politics Ann Arbor University of Michigan Press James D. Meernik The Political Use of Military Force in US Foreign Policy London Ashgate 2004 p

632-656 Atsushi Tago Determinants of Multilateralism in US Use of Force State of Economy Election Cycle and Divided Government Journal of Peace Research Vol. 42 No. 5 2005 pp.

4 Benjamin O. Fordham 7 1 Kenneth A. Schultz Looking for Audience Costs Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol. 45 No pp Joe Clare Domestic Audiences and Strategic Interests Journal of Politics Vol. 69 No pp Bruce Bueno de Mesquita Alastair Smith Randolph M. Siverson and James D. Morrow The Logic of Political Survival Cambridge MIT Press David Brulé and Alex Mintz Blank Check or Marching Orders Public Opinion and The Presidential Use of Force Presented at the Annual Meeting of The International Studies Association Honolulu Hawaii March James Meernik James D. Meernik The Political Use of Military Force in US Foreign Policy London Ashgate Benjamin O. Fordham A Very Sharp Sword The Influence of Military Capabilities on American Decisions to Use Force Journal of Conflict Resolution. Vol. 48 No pp

Morrow The Logic of Political Survival Cambridge MIT Press 2003 3 David Brulé and Alex Mintz Blank Check or Marching Orders Public Opinion and The Presidential Use of Force Presented at the Annual

5 James Meernik Harry Magdoff 1 David Brulé Explaining and Forecasting Leaders' Decisions A Poliheuristic Analysis of The Iran Hostage Rescue Decision International Studies Perspectives Vol. 6 No pp Walter Lafeber The American Age United States Foreign Policy at Home and Abroad 2nd edition New York W. W. Norton & Co p James D. Meernik The Political Use of Military Force in US Foreign Policy p James D. Meernik The Political Use of Military Force in US Foreign Policy p

99-113 2 Walter Lafeber The American Age United States Foreign Policy at Home and Abroad 2nd edition New York W. W. Norton & Co. 1994 p.

6 1 Robert Keohane Joseph Nye Stephen Krasner Robert Gilpin Harry Magdoff The American Empire and the U. S. Hegemony in Imperialism and Underdevelopment edited by Robert I. Rhodes New York Monthly Review Press 1970 p James D. Meernik The Political Use of Military Force in US Foreign Policy p. 77. Ibid. pp Atsushi Tago Determinants of Multilateralism in US Use of Force State of Economy Election Cycle and Divided Government Journal of Peace Research Vol. 42 No pp James Meernik and Chelsea Brown The Short Path and the Long Road Explaining The Duration of US Military Operations Journal of Peace Research Vol. 44 No pp Edward D. Mansfield and Brian M. Pollins ed. Economic Interdependence and International Conflict New Perspectives on An Enduring Debate Ann Arbor University of Michigan Press

Atsushi Tago Determinants of Multilateralism in US Use of Force State of Economy Election Cycle and Divided Government Journal of Peace Research Vol. 42 No. 5 2005 pp.

7 Suzanne Werner Ole R. Holsti Suzanne Werner The Effects of Political Similarity on The Onset of Militarized Disputes Political Research Quarterly Vol. 53 No pp Ole R. Holsti Making American Foreign Policy New York Routledge 2006 p James Meernik U. S. Military Intervention and the Promotion of Democracy Journal of Peace Research Vol. 33 No pp

1816-1985 Political Research Quarterly Vol. 53 No. 2 2000 pp. 343-374 2 23 3 Ole R.

8 1 Joanne Gowa Benjamin Fordham The Politics of Threat Perception and The Use of Force A Political Economy Model of U. S. Uses of Force International Studies Quarterly Vol. 42 No pp Karl DeRouen Jr. Presidents and the Diversionary Use of Force A Research Note International Studies Quarterly Vol. 44 No pp James Meernik Domestic Politics and the Political Use of Military Force by the United States Political Research Quarterly Vol. 54 No pp David Sobek Rallying Around the Podesta Testing Diversionary Theory Across Time Journal of Peace Research Vol. 44 No pp Dennis M. Foster And Glenn Palmer Presidents Public Opinion and Diversionary Behavior The Role of Partisan Support Reconsidered Foreign Policy Analysis Vol. 2 No pp Joanne Gowa Politics at the Water's Edge Parties Voters and the Use of Force Abroad International Organization Vol. 52 No p James D. Meernik The Political Use of Military Force in US Foreign Policy p

317-328 James Meernik Domestic Politics and the Political Use of Military Force by the United States Political Research Quarterly Vol. 54 No 4 2001 pp.

9 Karen Rasler William R. Thompson 1 Karl DeRouen Jr. and Christopher Sprecher Initial Crisis Reaction and Poliheuristic Theory Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol. 48 No p Karl DeRouen Jr. and Christopher Sprecher Initial Crisis Reaction and Poliheuristic Theory p

10 Karen Rasler and William R. Thompson Explaining Rivalry Escalation to War Space Position and Contiguity in the Major Power Subsystem International Studies Quarterly Vol. 44 No pp James D. Meernik The Political Use of Military Force in US Foreign Policy p Practicalities London Ashgate 2006 John Janzekovic The Use of Force in Humanitarian Intervention Morality and 72

International Studies Quarterly Vol. 44 No. 3 2000 pp. 503-530 34 James D.

11 International Crisis Behavior Project 1 Karl DeRouen Jr. Presidents and the Diversionary Use of Force A Research Note International Studies Quarterly Vol. 44 No pp James Meernik Domestic Politics and the Political Use of Military Force by the United States Political Research Quarterly Vol. 54 No pp

Presidents and the Diversionary Use of Force A Research Note International Studies Quarterly

12 ICB ICB ICB1 ICB ICB ICB2 4 1 ICB ICB Militarized Interstate Disputes MID ICB ICB MID ICB http / /www. cidcm. umd. edu /icb /data /icb2v9. zip 2 Patrick James and Enyu Zhang Chinese Choices A Poliheuristic Analysis of Foreign Policy Crises Foreign Policy Analysis Vol. 1 No p ICB ICB2 74

13 ICB2 1 ICB2 GNP 2 ICB2 8 ICB ICB2 8

14 3 ICB ICB ICB2 ICB ICB ICB James D. Meernik The Political Use of Military Force in US Foreign Policy p

15 OPEC OPEC 2 OPEC ICB ICB http / /gbk. eads. usaidallnet. gov / 2 OPEC OPEC http / / www. opec. org /home / 3 Suzanne Werner The Effects of Political Similarity on The Onset of Militarized Disputes pp ICB2 4 77

gov / 2 OPEC 1960 1946 2006 1960 1973 OPEC http / / www. opec.

16 GDP CIP Philip Everts and Pierangelo Isernia ed. Public Opinion and the International Use of Force New York Routledge 2001 David Brulé and Alex Mintz Blank Check or Marching Orders Public Opinion and the Presidential Use of Force Presented at The Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association Honolulu Hawaii March Roper Center http / /roperweb. ropercenter. uconn. edu / 3 http / /www. bls. gov / http / /www. bea. gov / 78

Marching Orders Public Opinion and the Presidential Use of Force Presented at The Annual Meeting of the

17 I = B 0 + B 1 + B 2 + B 3 + B 4 + B 5 II = B 0 + B 1 + B 2 OPEC + B 3 GDP + B 4 + B 5 III = B 0 + B 1 + B 2 + B 3 IV = B 0 + B 1 + B 2 + B 3 GDP + B 4 + B 5 + B 6 + B 7 V = B 0 + B 1 + B 2 + B 3 + B 4 + B 5 + B 6 + B 7 OPEC + B 8 + B 9 + B 10 + B 11 + B 12 GDP + B 13 + B 14 + B James Meernik Modeling International Crises and the Political Use of Military Force by the USA Journal of Peace Research Vol. 37 No p Karl DeRouen Jr. Presidents and the Diversionary Use of Force A Research Note pp Karl DeRouen Jr. and Christopher Sprecher Initial Crisis Reaction and Poliheuristic Theory pp

Meernik Modeling International Crises and the Political Use of Military Force by the USA Journal of Peace Research Vol. 37 No. 5 2000 p. 554 2 Karl DeRouen Jr.

18 ICB % 29 12% %

19 OPEC % 88% % 36. 5% % 58. 5% % 63. 9% % 94. 6% % 49. 8% % 70. 1% % 13. 3% 0% 13. 7% 48. 5% 24. 1% OPEC Mutual Security Act

8% 72 169 29. 9% 70. 1% 1 32 0 33 117 58 0. 4% 13. 3% 0% 13. 7% 48. 5% 24.

20 -2 Pearson E OPEC GDP SPSS ICB

5021 0. 50104 0. 2988 0. 45866 54. 97 13. 143 0. 20 4. 688 GDP 3. 8220 4.

22 0-1 Logistic -4 I IV I II III IV V *** ** ** * * OPEC ** ** * ** ** * GDP * ** ** *** ** ** Log likelihood N = 241 *** p < ** p < * p < 0. 1 I 99% 1 95%

23 II 90% - 2 Log likelihood % II III 95% % III 1 Graham T. Allison and Philip Zelikow Essence of Decision Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis 2nd edition Beijing Peking University Press James D. Meernik The Political Use of Military Force in US Foreign Policy p % 85

24 ICB 1 IV 2 3 Jonathan W. Keller Yi Edward Yang % Ole R. Holsti Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Challenges to the Almond-Lippmann Consensus Mershon Series Research Programs and Debates International Studies Quarterly Vol. 36 No pp Eugene R. Wittkopf Charles W. Kegley and James M. Scott American Foreign Policy Pattern And Process 6th edition Beijing Peking University Press 2004 p Jonathan W. Keller and Yi Edward Yang Leadership Style Decision Context and The Poliheuristic Theory of Decision Making An Experimental Analysis Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol. 52 No p

25 II 1 V Benjamin Fordham The Politics of Threat Perception and the Use of Force A Political Economy Model of U. S. Uses of Force International Studies Quarterly p IV V 87

26 88 ICB -5

27 Richard K. Herrmann Richard K. Herrmann and Jonathan W. Keller Beliefs Values and Strategic Choice U. S. Leaders' Decisions to Engage Contain and Use Force in an Era of Globalization Journal of Politics Vol. 66 No pp David Brulé The Poliheuristic Research Program An Assessment and Suggestions For Further Progress International Studies Review Vol. 10 No pp

28 b. lse. ac. uk gmail. com 2006 hotmail. com gmail. com com qq. com mails. tsinghua. edu. cn liuruonan. gmail. com Ⅱ

西方三大霸权的战略比较——兼论美国制度霸权的启示意义•

西方三大霸权的战略比较——兼论美国制度霸权的启示意义• - 1 Pax Americana Pax Romana Pax Britannica 2 3 20 60 4 1 1998 4 2 Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power, New York: Basic Books, 1990, p.50. 3 Immanuel Wallerstein, Three