京津冀能否实现 2017 年 PM 2.5 改善目标? 政策评估及建议 Could Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei achieve the PM 2.5 improvement targets in 2017? Policy assessments and recommenda

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1 京津冀能否实现 2017 年 PM 2.5 改善目标? 政策评估及建议 Could Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei achieve the PM 2.5 improvement targets in 2017? Policy assessments and recommendations 张强 Qiang Zhang 清华大学 Tsinghua University

2 国务院大气污染防治行动计划 ( 大气十条 ) The Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan ( the Action Plan ) n 计划目标 :2017 年, 京津冀地区 PM 2.5 浓度要减少 25%, 北京市年均浓度不超过 60 µg/m 3 Goals: PM 2.5 concentrations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region should be reduced by 25% in 2017 and annual concentration in Beijing should not exceed 60 µg/m 3.

3 研究方法 Methodology 排放清单 (MEIC 模型 ) Emission inventory (MEIC Model) 大气十条措施参数化 Measures in the Action Plan CMAQ 模型 12km WRF 气象基准年空气质量模拟及验证 AQ simulation (base year) Model evaluation 目标年空气质量模拟 AQ simulation (target year)

大气十条政策措施总结 Control measures in the Action Plan 京津冀地区政策文件 Policy documents for BTH n 国务院大气污染防治行动计划 The Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan n 京津冀及周边地区落实大气污染防治行动计划实施细则 The Detailed

for Clean Air from 2013 to 2017 n 天津市清新空气行动方案 The Action Plan of Tianjin for Clean Air n 河北省大气污染防治行动计划实施方案 The Plan of Hebei Province for the Implementation of the Air Pollution Prevention and

4 大气十条政策措施总结 Control measures in the Action Plan 京津冀地区政策文件 Policy documents for BTH n 国务院大气污染防治行动计划 The Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan n 京津冀及周边地区落实大气污染防治行动计划实施细则 The Detailed Rules for the Implementation of the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region and Surrounding Areas n 北京市年清洁空气行动计划 The Action Plan of Beijing for Clean Air from 2013 to 2017 n 天津市清新空气行动方案 The Action Plan of Tianjin for Clean Air n 河北省大气污染防治行动计划实施方案 The Plan of Hebei Province for the Implementation of the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan 结构调整措施 Structure adjustment measures 末端控制措施 Endof-pipe control measures 源头减排, 如煤炭总量控制清洁能源替代淘汰落后产能限制机动车等指末端控制技术的应用与更新, 如实施脱硫脱硝, 进行除尘升级改造等重点分析可明确量化的重要措施 Focus on Quantifiable measures

5 京津冀地区主要能源消费结构变化 Energy structure change in BTH 北京 Beijing 天津 Tianjin 河北 Hebei 15% 24% 16% Ø Specific targets for energy consumption: Ø By 2017, coal consumption in Jing-Jin-Ji region shall be reduced by 63 million tons Ø Natural gas consumption will be increased by 50 billion cubic meters

6 京津冀地区主要能源消费结构变化 Energy structure change in BTH 北京 Beijing 天津 Tianjin 河北 Hebei

7 大气十条采取多项污染末端控制措施 End-of-pipe control measures in the Action Plan 固定燃烧源 Stationary combustion sources 工业过程 Industrial process 机动车 Mobile sources

21% 5% n VOCs 排放量削减缺乏政策的有效支撑 More stringent policies should be implemented on controlling VOCs emissions.

8 2017 年主要污染物排放下降幅度 Emission reduction rates in 2017 北京 Beijing 35% 16% 天津 Tianjin 47% 17% 2% 51% 39% 30% 河北 Hebei 28% 20% n 河北污染物排放量削减率总体低于京津 Emissions reduction rates in Hebei are lower than Beijing and Tianjin. 21% 5% n VOCs 排放量削减缺乏政策的有效支撑 More stringent policies should be implemented on controlling VOCs emissions. n 在 SO 2 和 NO X 大幅削减的情况下,NH 3 排放量未削减, 造成区域 NH 3 进一步过剩 NH 3 will be further excess due to reductions of SO 2 and NOx emissions.

9 各项措施的减排贡献 The contributions of each measures on emission reduction SO 2 NOx PM 2.5

10 温室气体减排协同效应分析 Co-benefits on greenhouse gas mitigation CO 2 BC

5 concentration changes in BTH 2013 2017 The percentage change

11 效果预评估 : 河北天津难以实现改善目标 Pre-evaluation: hard for Tianjin and Hebei to achieve the goals 京津冀地区 PM 2.5 浓度变化 PM 2.5 concentration changes in BTH The percentage change 50 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Model Evaluation -25.6% -18.7% -14.7%

河北和天津无法达到预期效果的原因 Reasons for not achieving the reduction targets in Hebei and Tianjin 京津冀地区 PM 2.5 浓度变化 2013 2013 PM 2.

12 河北和天津无法达到预期效果的原因 Reasons for not achieving the reduction targets in Hebei and Tianjin 京津冀地区 PM 2.5 浓度变化 PM 2.5 concentration changes in BTH The percentage change ( ) / 2013 n n 华北地区 NH 3 过剩, 大幅减少 SO 2 会促使冬季 NO x 向硝酸盐转化 Following the SO 2 emission reductions, nitrate concentrations increase under NH 3 -rich condition in winter. 在 NH 3 过剩条件下, 二次无机离子对大气氧化性更为敏感因华北属于 VOC 控制区, 减少 NOx 排放会增加臭氧浓度, 增强大气氧化性, 从而促进二次无机离子生成 As BTH is located in NH 3 -rich conditions and VOC-limited regime, the NOx emission reductions result in an elevated level of atmospheric oxidation capacity, then enhancing the SIA formation.

13 强化减排达标情景 : 强化的减排措施 Enhanced reduction scenario:enhanced control measures 省份强化的减排措施 Provinces Enhanced control measures 河北 Hebei 钢铁产量削减, 保证煤炭削减总量从 4000 万吨增加至 6000 万吨河北 Hebei 工业煤炭洗选, 禁止使用硫含量高于 0.6% 的煤炭河北 Hebei 对欧三柴油车进行限行 : 其中重型载货柴油车油耗比例从基准情景的 35~40% 降低至 20% 河北 Hebei VOC 重点行业减排 30~40%( 炼焦涂料制药等行业 ) 河北 Hebei 畜牧养殖业集约化比例增加 30% 推广施用缓释肥料品种河北 Hebei 钢铁水泥炼焦行业除尘升级改造天津 Tianjin 50% 的燃煤供热锅炉安装脱硝设施天津 Tianjin 对欧三柴油车进行限行 : 其中重型载货柴油车油耗比例从基准情景的 35~40% 降低至 20% 天津 Tianjin VOC 重点行业减排 30~40%( 涂料制药等行业 ) 天津 Tianjin 畜牧养殖业集约化比例增加 30% 推广施用缓释肥料品种天津 Tianjin 钢铁水泥炼焦行业除尘升级改造

14 强化减排达标情景 : 污染物排放变化 Enhanced reduction scenario:emission changes 37% 北京 Beijing 32% 天津 Tianjin 47% 35% 30% 51% 39% 37% 河北 Hebei 40% 35% 30% 35%

15 强化减排达标情景 :PM 2.5 浓度变化 Enhanced reduction scenario:pm 2.5 concentration changes 京津冀地区 PM 2.5 浓度变化 PM 2.5 concentration changes in BTH The percentage change 50 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -31.1% -25.9% -25.5%

16 强化减排达标情景 :PM 2.5 化学组分浓度变化 Enhanced reduction scenario:concentration changes of PM 2.5 and its components 京津冀地区 PM 2.5 浓度变化 PM 2.5 concentration changes in BTH The percentage change ( ) / 2013 通过 SO 2 NO x 和 VOC 的协同减排实现浓度下降目标 SO 2, NOx and VOC emissions should be reduced simultaneously to achieve the targets. 充分体现了多污染物在多部门协同减排的必要性 Emissions of different pollutants from different sectors should be reduced simultaneously.

17 气象年际变化的影响 The impacts of inter-annual variability of meteorology 基准年模拟结果 Simulated results of base year n 气象年际变化对于单年的浓度模拟结果影响较大 PM 2.5 concentration of one year is greatly affected by inter-annual variability of meteorology. n 由于采用同一气象场, 气象场的年份对于评估浓度下降比例的影响不大 The selection of meteorological field has little impacts on reduction rates. n 选择 2013 年作为大气十条考核的基准年, 若 2017 年的气象条件较好, 将有利于大气十条浓度达标 If 2013 is selected as the base year for the assessment, it will be conducive to achieve the PM 2.5 reduction targets.

京津冀周边省份协同减排的重要性 The importance of synergistic

surrounding provinces keep the emission level

特别是在控制二次无机气溶胶方面 n Regional synergic control

18 京津冀周边省份协同减排的重要性 The importance of synergistic reduction outside BTH 周边省份下降目标 PM 2.5 reduction targets PM 2.5 S2 情景 : 周边省份维持在 2012 年排放水平 S2 scenario: surrounding provinces keep the emission level of year 2012 SO 4 2- EC n 充分体现了区域协同控制的重要性, 特别是在控制二次无机气溶胶方面 n Regional synergic control are important for the reduction of the PM 2.5 concentrations, especially for SIA

19 总结 Summary n 依据现行可明确量化措施的初步分析结果表明, 实施大气十条后, 京津冀地区 PM 2.5 浓度降幅显著, 但天津和河北仍存在达不到 2017 年浓度降低 25% 的风险 Based on measures that could be clearly quantified in the Action Plan, PM 2.5 concentration in BTH will decrease significantly in 2017, but risks exist in Tianjin and Hebei to achieve a 25% decline in PM 2.5 concentration. n 通过 SO 2 NOx 和 VOC 的协同减排实现浓度下降目标 SO 2, NOx and VOC emissions should be reduced simultaneously to achieve the targets. n 控制京津冀区域细颗粒物污染需要区域协同减排, 特别在控制二次无机气溶胶方面 Regional synergic control are important for the reduction of the PM 2.5 concentrations, especially for SIA. n 气象年际变化对于单年的浓度模拟结果影响较大, 空气质量考核评估时应将气象因素纳入 As PM 2.5 concentration of one year is greatly affected by interannual variability of meteorology, the impacts of meteorology shall be considered during assessment.

20 Thank you!

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