软科学 2013 年 6 月第 27 卷第 6 期 ( 总第 162 期 ) 0 i j C 6 ~ ij = { C i i = j 5 2 T - T = C B珔 6 Kaya 4 FU F ^U 1995 ~ TFC 2009 TFC n n = T F ^U 研究

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旭钞孔
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1 祁神军, 张云波 ( 华侨大学土木工程学院 ; 建设管理与房地产研究所, 福建厦门 ) ~ 2009 Kaya 4 F426 X502 A Research on the Influencing Factors and Reduction Strategies of Carbon Emission of Construction Industry in China QI Shen-jun ZHANG Yun-bo College of Civil Engineering Project Management and Real Estate Lab Huaqiao University Xiamen Abstract This paper analysis the economic input-output through to set up the model of the intensity of carbon emission of e- conomic sectors based on their energy consumption and the model of carbon footprint of construction industry correspondingly the distribution structure of its carbon emissions was also analyzed from 1995 to And then decomposition model of construction carbon emission was set up based on Kaya Model by which the influencing factors of construction carbon emission was broken into four types including effect of energy structure effect of energy intensity effect of industrial-scale and effect of economic output the situation and the trend of construction carbon emission was empirical analyzed to propose the reduction strategies. The result shows that reduction of the intensity of the energy structure and the industrial-scale energy was the key to reduction carbon emission for construction sector. Key words carbon emissions factor decomposition model of carbon emissions model of carbon emissions footprint 1 IPCC % 36% CO MtCO 2 - eq % Kaya 国家自然科学基金项目 ( ) ; 福建省青年自然科学基金项目 ( 2012J05095) ; 华侨大学国家自然科学基金培育计划专项 ( JB - ZR1231) 祁神军 ( ), 男, 湖北宣恩人, 博士副教授, 研究方向为低碳建筑 ; 张云波 ( ), 男, 福建惠安人, 博士教授, 研究方向为低碳建筑 39

2 软科学 2013 年 6 月第 27 卷第 6 期 ( 总第 162 期 ) 0 i j C 6 ~ ij = { C i i = j 5 2 T - T = C B珔 6 Kaya 4 FU F ^U 1995 ~ TFC 2009 TFC n n = T F ^U 研究范围界定 Kaya 1 CO 2 = CO 2 PE PE S S CGDP CGDP 8 8 CO 2 PE 9 S CGDP GDP CO 2 /PE PE /S S /CGDP 数据来源与处理 ~ 基于能源消耗的产业碳排放强度 E ik i k 26 1 SC k CO 2 1 RC ik i k SE ik SE ik = E ik SC ik 1 i k CO 2 TC ik = SE ik RC ik 2 i CO 2 TC i P3 P16 TC i = Σ 9 RC ik k = 1 3 P1 P14 P2 P15 P4 P5 P17 P 产业碳足迹模型 1 P6 P19 A = a ij n n a ij j i P7 P20 B P8 P21 2 P9 P22 t CO 2 - eq /i P10 P23 C i C i = TC i /X i 4 P11 P24 3 P12 P25 1 P13 P26 40

3 2 CO 2 kg kg / 4 kg tc /tec tc / 3 tec tc /tec tC kg /kg 0. 9 kg /kg kg / tce /10 4 m 3 tce /10 4 kw h tce /t tc /tec CO 2 44 / 历年碳排放总量计算与分析 ~ ~ CO 2 1 建筑业直接温室气体排放量 t-eqco2 建筑业隐含温室气体排放量 t-eqco 年度 % CO 2 - eq 10 图 1 建筑业直接碳排放趋势 % 年度 % 10 图 2 建筑业隐含碳排放趋势 CO 2 - eq %

4 软科学 2013 年 6 月第 27 卷第 6 期 ( 总第 162 期 ) % b % % 2000 ~ 建筑业碳排放因素分解 % % GDP 3 a 1995 ~ GDP ~ ~ b % 1997 ~ 建筑业碳排放强度系数建筑业碳排放强度系数年份图 3 图 3 能源结构碳强度规模产业能源强度单位产出的产业规模比率产业 GDP 增长率碳排放增长率 (a) 建筑业直接碳排放因素分解能源结构碳强度规模产业能源强度单位产出的产业规模比率产业 GDP 增长率碳排放增长率年份 (b) 建筑业隐含碳排放因素分解 a GDP % ~ ~ % 2005 ~ % % % % % % % % 4 GDP % % % 20% 1997 ~ ~ ~ 2000 S /CGDP CGDP V 1995 ~ % % % GDP % GDP 1997 ~ % GDP 42

5 % % GDP 2000 ~ % GDP Kaya GDP 2002 ~ ~ 2007 GDP ~ GDP % - 6 % ~ - 8% EIO - LCA 4 J N ssén J Holmberg J Wadeskog A et al. Direct and Indirect Energy Use and Carbon Emissions in the Production Phase of Build- 1 ings An Input - output Analysis J. Energy Acquaye A A Duffy A P. Input output Analysis of Irish Construction Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions J. Building and Envi- ronment J J Kaya J Kaya CO 2 J Kaya J Kaya J Kaya 3 J ( 责任编辑 : 李映果 ) 43

by industrial structure evolution from 1952 to 2007 and its influence effect was first acceleration and then deceleration second the effects of indust

by industrial structure evolution from 1952 to 2007 and its influence effect was first acceleration and then deceleration second the effects of indust 2011 2 1 1 2 3 4 1. 100101 2. 100124 3. 100039 4. 650092 - - - 3 GDP U 20-30 60% 10% TK01 A 1002-9753 2011 02-0042 - 10 Analysis on Character and Potential of Energy Saving and Carbon Reducing by Structure

软科学 2013 年 6 月 第 27 卷 第 6 期 ( 总第 162 期 ) 0 i j C 6 ~ ij = { C i i = j 5 2 T - T = C B珔 6 Kaya 4 FU F ^U 1995 ~ TFC 2009 TFC n n = T F ^U 研究

软科学 2013 年 6 月第 27 卷第 6 期 ( 总第 162 期 ) 0 i j C 6 ~ ij = { C i i = j 5 2 T - T = C B珔 6 Kaya 4 FU F ^U 1995 ~ TFC 2009 TFC n n = T F ^U 研究