計画系 741 号カテゴリー Ⅱ 日本建築学会計画系論文集第 82 巻第 741 号, ,2017 年 11 月 J. Archit. Plann., AIJ, Vol. 82 No. 741, , Nov., 2017 DOI

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1 カテゴリー Ⅱ 日本建築学会論文集第 82 巻第, ,17 年 11 月 J. Archit. Plann., AIJ, Vol. 82 No. 741, , Nov., 17 DOI 住宅土地統計調査を用いた住宅残存率曲線の決定手法および既存住宅築年推定法の検討 DETERMINATION METHOD OF RESIDUAL RATE CURVE USING HOUSING AND LAND SATATISING SURVEY, AND APPLOCATION TO ESTIMATION OF BUILDING YEAR * 小浦孝次 Kouji KOURA The number of houses built before 1944 were calculated by using Housing and Land Survey. The residual ratio curve of the house was calculated by using Housing and Land Survey, and the number of new housing starts in the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport's (MLIT). The three parameters were decided for presumption. As a result, it became possible to estimate the year in which total houses, occupied houses and vacant houses were built. Changes in the number of residual houses by construction year were obtained by comparing estimation results of "housing and land statistics surveys" every 5 years. Keywords : Existing houses, Presumption method, Residual ratio curve, Year of Construction, Simulation,,,, * JSP 総合技術本部主管 Senior Manager, JSP Corporation, General Technology Division 297

2 S23 5 H () S53H H 1 1) 2) 3) ( ) (1929 ) (193 )(1938 )( )

3 4)5) Breakdown Unoccupied Occupied Temporary Vacant Under occupants As second For rent or sale Others construction only dwellings year of 1996 construction Jan.Sep.8 Not reported Survey year S23 S33 S38 S43 S48 S53 S58 S63 H5 H1 H15 H H ,847,769 17,411,,372, 24,197,9 28,73,5 35,45,5 38,66,8 42,7,3 45,878,7 5,246,1 53,89,8 57,585,9 6,628, ,185, ,738, , ,628,165 7,94, 9,259, , , 684, ,95, 9,943, 8,496,6 6,227,7 4,92,3 3,67, 2,71,4 2,144,3 1,647, ,599, 2,37, 1,85,89 1,498, 1,266,1 993,3 824,5 668, ,54, 12,313, 8,33,59 6,4,5 4,936,1 3,694,7 2,968,8 2,315,5 2,188,3 1,858,5 1,639,9 year ,68 332, ,13 338,9 341,19 344, , , , ,12 363,87 367, ,87 376, , , , ,323 43,137 49,21 415, , ,15 436, , ,768 46,1 468, , , ,731 56, , ,777 54, ,63 565, , ,574 67, , , , , , , ,69 348, , ,262 42, , , , , , , , , , ,66 549,12 123, ,77 547, Nunber of houses (Ten thousand houses after before 1944 Statistics

4 Probability of survival Nunber of houses Age of house (year) Target statistics Occupied Without not repoted Coefficient Average Standard deviation Nunber of houses () ,92, ,14, ,551,119 Nunber of houses Probability of survival Occupied Occupied without not repoted Statistical value Age of house (year) Statistical year Average life(year) Occupied

5 Number of total houses Year built (year) Number of vacant houses 35 3 H1 H15 25 H H Year built (year) Number of occupied houses Year built (year) ,315,8 2,143,56 2,3,11 1,985, Vacant houses 768, ,84 639, ,378 Vacant houses rate (%) ,541,235 5,938,769 5,479,156 5,339, Vacant houses 1,654,228 1,564,45 1,499,691 1,57,345 Vacant houses rate (%) ,263,25 12,165,96 11,185,781 1,855, Vacant houses 2,147,386 2,426,564 2,515,27 2,515,216 Vacant houses rate (%) ,82,513 13,362,665 12,644,976 12,274, Vacant houses 436,991 1,114,296 1,675,714 1,79,115 Vacant houses rate (%) ,527,551 11,515,751 11,383,393 11,3, Vacant houses ,11 448, ,381 Vacant houses rate (%) period Number of dismantled houses ,226,513 97, 4 8 2,226,44 887, ,234, , 7 H115 H15 5 H H115 H15H H H3 Number of dismantled houses

6 Nunber of houses Estimated housing number Statistics for 13 Error rate (%) Estimated housing number Occupied Statistics for 13 Error rate (%) Estimated housing number Occupied Occupied without no repoted Statistical value Occupied without no repoted () Statistics for 13 Error rate (%) 58,241,623 61,95, ,392,45 52,568, ,79,634 48,361, ,713,447 2,45,189 2,336,59 1,639, ,162,711 79,81 765,98 925, ,86,845 3,399,78 3,37,598 3,294, ,93,93 7,42,187 7,242,145 8,331, ,66,143 9,56,195 9,374,712 9,662, ,833,917 6,74,665 6,25,683 5,391, ,543,888 6,181,694 6,156,846 5,661, ,91,457 5,843,67 5,839,124 5,479, ,444,646 3,444,39 3,444,362 3,676, ,41 788,41 788, * , , , * , , , * , , , * ,25 98,25 98, *. * House construction start statistics 4 Toshiharu IKAGA et.al., AIJ Journal of Technology and Design. Des No.22 pp , 5.5 Yukio KOMATSU, Journal of Architecture and Building Science Vol.117, No.1494, pp.28-29, 2 Yukio KOMATSU, Journal of Architecture, Planning and Environmental Engineering (Transactions of AIJ), No.439, pp.91-99,

7 DETERMINATION METHOD OF RESIDUAL RATE CURVE USING HOUSING AND LAND SATATISING SURVEY, AND APPLOCATION TO ESTIMATION OF BUILDING YEAR Kouji KOURA * * Senior Manager, JSP Corporation, General Technology Division In the building administration, it is necessary to improve existing buildings as earthquake resistant, fire prevention and energy conservation countermeasures. Grasp of the number of residual houses by building year is important. In this paper, the building year estimation method for existing buildings using "Housing and Land Statistics Survey" in the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications(MIC) Bureau of Statistics. At first, the number of houses built in each year was estimated. The residual rate curve of the housing can be calculated using three parameters and three statistics (estimated housing starts before 1944, the number of new housing starts by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport since 1945, housing and land statistics survey). The building year distribution of housing in 13 was estimated from the 8 survival curve. The estimation result was similar to the statistics of 13. This method was confirmed that this estimation method is effective for short-term future prediction. This estimation method is effective for grasping the number of residual houses for each building year which was previously difficult. For example, in the total number of homes, the total number of houses with residence, vacancy, in a lost house. Furthermore, changes in the number of residual houses by construction year were obtained by comparing estimation results of "housing and land statistics surveys" every 5 years. (17 年 4 月 4 日原稿受理,17 年 7 月日採用決定 ) 2913

~ 10 2 P Y i t = my i t W Y i t 1000 PY i t Y t i W Y i t t i m Y i t t i 15 ~ 49 1 Y Y Y 15 ~ j j t j t = j P i t i = 15 P n i t n Y

~ 10 2 P Y i t = my i t W Y i t 1000 PY i t Y t i W Y i t t i m Y i t t i 15 ~ 49 1 Y Y Y 15 ~ j j t j t = j P i t i = 15 P n i t n Y * 35 4 2011 7 Vol. 35 No. 4 July 2011 3 Population Research 1950 ~ 1981 The Estimation Method and Its Application of Cohort Age - specific Fertility Rates Wang Gongzhou Hu Yaoling Abstract Based on the

計画系 741 号 カテゴリー Ⅱ 日本建築学会計画系論文集第 82 巻第 741 号, ,2017 年 11 月 J. Archit. Plann., AIJ, Vol. 82 No. 741, , Nov., 2017 DOI

計画系 741 号カテゴリー Ⅱ 日本建築学会計画系論文集第 82 巻第 741 号, ,2017 年 11 月 J. Archit. Plann., AIJ, Vol. 82 No. 741, , Nov., 2017 DOI