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1 DECEMBER 2010 No.9 Newsletter

Panel Data Analysis in Collaboration with Instituteof Economic Research, Kyoto University Hiroshi Teruyama The Keio Household Panel Survey (KHPS), which was initiated in 2004 from the Keio University

2 Panel Data Analysis in Collaboration with Instituteof Economic Research, Kyoto University Hiroshi Teruyama The Keio Household Panel Survey (KHPS), which was initiated in 2004 from the Keio University 21 st Century COE Program Development of a Theory of Market Quality and Empirical Analysis Using Panel Data, was conducted for the seventh time in As introduced in detail in prior issues of this Newsletter, the KHPS is the only household panel survey in Japan which covers households nationwide, and it also includes a wealth of information to examine market quality through various questions. After the conclusion of the five-year 21 st Century COE Program, this panel survey was taken over by this Global COE Program Raising Market Quality Integrated Design of Market Infrastructure which has continued to accumulate timeseries information, enabling more detailed analyses of household dynamic behavior. Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University (KIER), which has many complex economics systems researchers starting with GCOE Special Appointed Professor Kazuo Nishimura, participates in this Global COE Program as a partner institution. Through ties with this program, these researchers centered on market quality theory advocate Professor Makoto Yano and including assistant professors and other young researchers are putting their efforts into joint research on market quality dynamics using complexity models. Moreover, to promote interface between theoretical and empirical researches in market quality, Kyoto University researchers are participating in empirical analyses using the KHPS. Kyoto University researchers have also been involved from Volume V as editors and writers of the Dynamism of Household Behavior in Japan series (Keio University Press), which has published the latest research findings using the KHPS since the launch of the 21 st Century COE Program. One of main characteristic of this affiliation is that KIER, which to date has had many researchers active in the field of advanced economic theory, is conducting empirical panel data analyses on market quality. In addition, from FY2010 KIER began activities as a joint usage and research center, broadly canvassing for and implementing joint project research with domestic and foreign researchers. A plan for labor market research using the KHPS was also adopted for this project research. The empirical research on the market quality of capital

3 and labor markets using the KHPS being advanced by Kyoto University researchers is now steadily moving forward. Some of these research findings are recorded in Volume V (2009) and Volume VI (2010) of The Dynamism of Household Behavior in Japan. I will now proceed to introduce some of the empirical research on the labor market among those studies. In Regarding the Quality of the Japanese Labor Market as Viewed from Wage Formation (Koyo Miyoshi and Makoto Yano), which uses detailed KHPS data on working hours, compensation and worker attributes, the authors estimate the relationship between the number of hours part-time employees work and their hourly wages. From the resulting part-time employee wage and working hours profile, they discovered that wage rates increase together with increases in the number of hours of labor supply. This characteristic implies that the wages of Japanese part-time workers are set at an unfairly low level near the disutility of labor. The authors conclude that this demonstrates the low quality of the Japanese labor market from the viewpoints of both efficiency and fairness. While the KHPS survey is in its seventh year, the respondents are asked retrospectively about their school, employment and job search history year-by-year from age 15, so the KHPS can provide long-term detailed employment history data. This data can be used to see, for example, the effect from entering the job market under non-regular employment on the probability of subsequent nonregular employment and its length. The Quality of the Japanese Labor Market from the Viewpoint of Competitive Fairness (Hiroshi Teruyama and Makoto Yano) examines the existence of barriers obstructing movement between non-regular and regular employment from diverse angles, including these types of analyses. The authors find that these are one-way barriers preventing movement from non-regular to regular employment, and their findings suggest that the market has lost competitive fairness. The KHPS also uses the advantages of the questionnaire format by including questions to gain subjective answers regarding trust, satisfaction, and intentions. In Job Satisfaction and Turnover (Hisashi Okamoto and Hiroshi Teruyama), the authors emphasize the possibility that non-pecuniary factors other than consumption and leisure may impact household utility, and use responses to questions regarding intentions to change jobs, and regarding job fulfillment and satisfaction to analyze the determining factors for changing jobs. Their findings indicate that non-pecuniary causes are also important in job turnover and that job turnover actually tends to take place for improved job satisfaction and income. Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University (KIER) will continue to have members of this Global COE and their joint researchers implement empirical research on market quality using the KHPS, and to publish their research findings.

The meeting had a total of 12 research presentations, including two luncheon keynote talks.

4 Activity Report The Asian Economic Panel Meeting took place September 11-12, 2010 at the Keio University Mita Campus G-SEC Lab. This international conference is a venue for Japanese and foreign researchers from Asian universities and research organizations to deliberate economic policy and other aspects of Asian economics. The meeting had a total of 12 research presentations, including two luncheon keynote talks. The presentations this year mostly addressed issues concerning the Chinese economy, with its outstanding development, with many global and regional level analyses on how the Chinese economy impacts the global economy. The research was discussed from diverse angles, based on reports and discussions by individuals responsible for implementing policy at the Asian Development Bank and the Korea Institute of International Economic Policy. The reports began with a keynote address by our Joint Global COE Program Project Leader, Professor Naoyuki Yoshino, presenting economic analysis on Japan s two decades of economic stagnation and policies for improvement. The meeting also featured the luncheon keynote talks Financial Supervision and Regulation in Japan by Financial Services Agency Planning and Coordination Bureau Councilor Chikahisa Sumi on the 11th and Understanding the Fluctuations in Japan s Stock Market and Bond Market by Mr. Yoshio Okubo of the Japan Securities Association on the 12th, with frank debate regarding Japan s financial markets among the participants. The other papers at the conference presented analysis of economic cooperation between Taiwan and China; quantitative analysis of the informal economy and bribery in North Korea using questionnaire survey data; analysis of simulation results on the global impact of Chinese economic growth; quantitative analysis on the role of China as the key to Asian economic growth; analysis of China s international balance of payments; analysis on Chinese economic growth and the impact of electricity pricing; analysis of the decisive factors for an East Asian free trade agreement; analysis on the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Vietnam; and a report on China s export-led economic growth model, with lively exchanges of opinions among the participants. Dr. Iris Claus (Inland Revenue Department, New Zealand)

The Society for Computational Economics (SCE), which primarily addresses issues in computational economics analysis and economic theory, held its 16th International Conference on Computing in

5 The Society for Computational Economics (SCE), which primarily addresses issues in computational economics analysis and economic theory, held its 16th International Conference on Computing in Economics and Finance at City University London from July 15 through July 18, This year s conference drew together a vast number of economists from Europe and around the world. The conference featured more than 300 research paper presentations concerning macroeconomics, finance and computational economics at over 80 sessions. The participants from this Global COE were Project Leader, Keio University Faculty of Economics Professor Naoyuki Yoshino and Keio University Faculty of Economics Assistant Professor Tetsuro Mizoguchi. With assistance from the Global COE Program Program to Support Research Presentations by Young Researchers, Assistant Professor Mizoguchi presented a joint paper with Professor Yoshino, The Role of Public Works in the Political Business Cycle in Japan and the New Stability Condition for the Government Bond Market. This paper was presented at the July 15 afternoon session Business Cycles and Fluctuations II. In their paper, Professor Yoshino and Assistant Professor Mizoguchi presented theoretical analysis on why Japan differs from the case of Greece and has not suffered financial collapse, even though Japanese government debt has reached 200% of GDP. From the fact that Japanese government bonds are mostly purchased domestically, they derived the new government bond stability condition which considers both the demand and supply side. They stressed the importance of the demand side of the Japanese government bond market. On July 16, Professor Yoshino presented a banquet lecture at the Royal Society entitled The Basel Capital Requirement Ratio and its Impact on Banks all over the World. The Royal Society, founded in 1660, is the oldest scientific academy in the U.K. Its members have included Charles Darwin and Isaac Newton. In his lecture, Professor Yoshino addressed asset composition for the BIS (Bank for International Settlements) capital ratio standards which all banks engaged in international operations must meet to maintain the credit order. He explained that the setting of a uniform rate of 8% for all countries despite differences from country to country in the economic structure, and in economic activity and asset-pricing trends is theoretically incorrect. Professor Yoshino also introduced empirical analyses which derived optimal capital ratios using data from Japan, the U.S. and Canada. His paper elicited keen interest from the audience, with spirited questions from individuals working at the BIS and central banks, and from Western economists. Professor Naoyuki Yoshino (Keio University)

Activity Report The Joint Global COE Program International Section and the Tokyo Center for Economic Research (TCER) held an applied microeconomics workshop for young researchers on July 31, 2010.

6 Activity Report The Joint Global COE Program International Section and the Tokyo Center for Economic Research (TCER) held an applied microeconomics workshop for young researchers on July 31, This workshop was a continuation of the workshop held with the Yokohama National University Center for Corporate Strategy and Economic Growth in March Once again, the workshop comprised reports from six young researchers engaged in empirical research in applied economics. This time, the reports presented research in the fields of spatial economics and labor economics, along with international economics and industrial organization theory. The discussions transcended the specialized fields of the individual researchers. Three of the six papers were ambitious empirical research addressing the estimation of structural parameters. For example, the paper by Kenta Ikeuchi (Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University) estimated the procurement costs of intermediate goods in Japan s manufacturing industry from the estimated demand function and cost function parameters. Similarly, the research by Daiya Isogawa (Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo) used an estimated automobile demand function to estimate the influence of gasoline price fluctuations on demand. This very interesting paper focused on how the provisional tax rate on gasoline temporarily expired effect in From the labor field, Shingo Takahashi (International University of Japan) presented research estimating the influence of the special tax deduction for spouses on the labor supply of married women. This was a devoted work of constructing a labor supply model considering highly detailed information on the circumstances of the special spouse tax deduction system, and it included estimations of the structural parameters using discrete data on married women. A total of 26 participants attended the workshop, with graduate students from University of Tokyo and Hitotsubashi University, researchers from government think tanks and faculty from other universities joining Keio University faculty and graduate students in highly animated discussions. Mr. Kenta Ikeuchi presented his research in front of the workshop attendees.

The Ninth GCOE History Seminar Consumer Financing in Modern Japan took place October 9, 2010 at the Keio University Mita Campus.

the history of consumer financing for many years.

Emeritus Shibuya noted the importance of the role played by loan sharks, pawn shops and other traditional consumer financing channels, as well as the regional and class characteristics of the

7 The Ninth GCOE History Seminar Consumer Financing in Modern Japan took place October 9, 2010 at the Keio University Mita Campus. The seminar, organized by the Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Program Historical Analysis Section, featured a presentation by Komazawa University Professor Emeritus Ryuichi Shibuya, who has researched the history of consumer financing for many years. In contrast to the conventional research on the history of financing, which has centered on typical modern financial institutions such as banks and industry associations, in his report Professor Emeritus Shibuya noted the importance of the role played by loan sharks, pawn shops and other traditional consumer financing channels, as well as the regional and class characteristics of the consumers who borrow from them. The seminar was attended by many researchers from inside and outside the university who engaged in lively, multi-faceted debate in particular regarding the positioning of consumer finance in the overall financial industry, the differences in the roles of urban and rural financial institutions, and how to secure the quality of the consumer finance market. Professor Emeritus Ryuichi Shibuya (Komazawa University) Professor Uwe Vollmer of the University of Leipzig (Germany) held an intensive lecture Credit Rationing: Causes and Solutions at Keio University on October 2, In his lecture, Professor Vollmer introduced the issue of loan credit rationing by banks from the standpoint of microeconomics. In particular, the lecture addressed, in detail, the issue of the information asymmetry which arises in financing between entrepreneurs and banks. When there is an information gap between the entrepreneur who needs funds to execute a project and the bank which is the lender, the bank cannot distinguish among different types of entrepreneurs. So if the project later fails, the bank cannot determine if the failure was due to negligence by the entrepreneur or despite the entrepreneur s best efforts. To address this, Professor Vollmer simply explained the foundations of a mechanism whereby entrepreneurs would not be deemed negligent. The lecture was attended by over 30 students, and was followed by a lively question and answer session. Professor Uwe Vollmer (University of Leipzig)

Activity Report The GCOE Global Marketing Seminar, organized by the Management, Accounting and Marketing Section, took place from 1:00 to 4:00pm September 9, 2010 in the harsh heat of late summer at

From the Keio University side, Faculty of Business and Commerce Professor Akira Shimizu made a presentation.

8 Activity Report The GCOE Global Marketing Seminar, organized by the Management, Accounting and Marketing Section, took place from 1:00 to 4:00pm September 9, 2010 in the harsh heat of late summer at the Keio University Mita Campus. This seminar was held to invite two American researchers who were visiting Japan for an international marketing conference starting in Tokyo from the following day. From the Keio University side, Faculty of Business and Commerce Professor Akira Shimizu made a presentation. All of the presentations concerned raising market quality, which is the research theme of this GCOE Program. Spirited discussions developed during the breaks and even after the seminar, based on the lectures given by the three speakers. This seminar was open to the general public and included other overseas researchers visiting Japan for the above-mentioned conference in addition to Keio University faculty, graduate students and undergraduates. The first presentation was by Boston College Professor Arch Woodside. Professor Woodside is a world-famous marketing scholar who serves as the editor-in-chief of the authoritative academic publication, the Journal of Business Research. He spoke on the theme How National Cultural Configurations Affect Consumption Behavior of International Exports (Tourism) and introduced his own survey findings regarding the influence of each nation s culture on consumption behavior, especially shopping, leisure, tourism and other selective behavior. Next, Temple University Professor Anthony Di Benedetto gave his presentation Product Innovation: The Emergence of an Academic Discipline and Implications for Management. Professor Di Benedetto serves as editor-in-chief of the academic publication, the Journal of Product Innovation Management. He introduced the advance of product innovation research from the past to the present time along with the development of that journal. Then Keio University Professor Akira Shimizu spoke on Consumer Behavior in the Digital Era. He explained the types of consumers that exist in Japan s advancing IT society and how these different types impact corporate marketing activities, with explications of many research findings. Finally, I would like to add that an academic exchange meeting was held prior to the seminar with the participation of faculty in commerce and also in related fields. This exchange of opinions was beneficial for both education and research. Ikuo Takahashi Program coordinator, Professor, Faculty of Business and Commerce, Keio University Professor Arch Woodside (left, Boston College) Professor Anthony Benedetto (right, Temple University)

The Management, Accounting and Marketing Section symposium New Frontiers in Marketing Research took place September 24 at the Keio University Mita campus.

termining Factors for Electronic Word-of-Mouth in Business Blogs by Keio University Graduate School of Business & Commerce Ph.D.

Social Sciences Assistant Professor Taku Kato. The first paper established and tested hypotheses focusing on two electronic word-of-mouth transmissions in company blogs: comments and trackbacks.

9 The Management, Accounting and Marketing Section symposium New Frontiers in Marketing Research took place September 24 at the Keio University Mita campus. The symposium featured presentations by two young researchers: Determining Factors for Electronic Word-of-Mouth in Business Blogs by Keio University Graduate School of Business & Commerce Ph.D. student Masae Kei, and Relation between Competition Strategy and Business Performance in the Service Industry Case Study on Listed Japanese Food Service Companies by Kyorin University Faculty of Social Sciences Assistant Professor Taku Kato. The first paper established and tested hypotheses focusing on two electronic word-of-mouth transmissions in company blogs: comments and trackbacks. This research clarified that comments are influenced by attitudes toward companies, while trackbacks are influenced by social norms. The second paper analyzed how business format and store development strategy correlate with performance in the food service industry. The analysis was conducted from the novel perspective of combining financial data with store development data. Temple University Fox School of Business and Management Professor Masaaki Kotabe served as the symposium commentator. Professor Kotabe, who is active globally, gave important comments from on research approach: importance of the real world relevance and academic contributions. He also instructed analysis method. About 25 marketing, management and accounting faculty and graduate students participated in the symposium. The management and accounting faculty posed questions and comments from different perspectives, for example, regarding the handling of data. The symposium was highly stimulating for both the presenters and the participants. At the social gathering following the presentations, with the participation of Professor Kotabe, participants informally exchanged opinions and gave further advice to the presenters. These symposiums began last year, and the event reconfirmed the importance of such opportunities at this Global COE, which emphasizes graduate student education. Ms. Masae Kei (Keio University) Professor Masaaki Kotabe (Temple University) Assistant Professor Taku Kato (Kyorin University)

10 Activity Report GCOE Project Leader Professor Naoyuki Yoshino spoke at an OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) meeting in Thailand on July 6, The countries of Asia are currently realizing economic growth, but the infrastructure is insufficient. Especially the needs to improve and expand roads, ports, railroads and other infrastructure are urgent, but infrastructural improvements are not advancing because it is very difficult to obtain sufficient funds. In his presentation, Professor Yoshino estimated the extent of infrastructure demand in Asian countries, and sought ways in which funds might be procured. He proposed the use of revenue bonds as a way to introduce private funds, with the setting of caps and floors on private returns. With caps and floors, the government guarantees private investors a minimum return in the unlikely event an infrastructure project fails, and receives all dividends beyond a fixed level when projects succeed and dividends rise. Professor Yoshino also commented on project examples where a certain amount of government investment is required to draw private capital. His presentation is scheduled for publication in the OECD Economic Outlook. An APEC (Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation) Seminar Getting Credit for Small and Medium Enterprises took place September 21, 2010 at the Westin Sendai. In his Luncheon speech the GCOE Project Leader, Professor Naoyuki Yoshino explained the necessity of compiling SME data for the rating of SMEs in Asia, based on the Japanese experience. In Japan, a Credit Risk Database Association was established This CRD Association collects various data on small and medium enterprises via credit guarantee corporations, conducts statistical analyses, and provides bankruptcy probabilities and other information to member financial institutions. Similar data analyses are now proceeding in Asian countries. At the ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers Meeting 2008, Prof. Yoshino proposed that collection and analysis of SME data is essential for establishing a rating system for SMEs in Asia. Accepting this proposal, the governments of Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines are now advancing policies on methods to collect SME data, based on the experience in Japan. In Thailand, Prof. Yoshino spoke to a vice-ministerial meeting and his proposal is being advanced as a pillar of Thai SME policy.

11 Associate ProfessorSayako Kanda (Keio University)

Microsoft Word - bxyj2007_01_zongdi225.doc

Microsoft Word - bxyj2007_01_zongdi225.doc 以科学发展观为统领深入贯彻落实国务院 23 号文件全面提高保险业服务社会主义和谐社会的能力吴定富 ( 中国保险监督管理委员会, 北京 100032) [ 摘要 ]2006 年, 我国保险业社会地位稳步提高, 国际影响力不断扩大, 发展环境日益