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Support the Decision Making in Response to Typhoons in Taiwan National Science and Technology Center

1 1 International Conference on Flood Resilience Experiences in Asia and Europe 5-7 September 2013 Exeter, United Kingdom Session A3: POLICY INSTRUMENTS AND GOVERNANCE ISSUES How Science and Technology Support the Decision Making in Response to Typhoons in Taiwan National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction Wei-Sen Li, Liang-Chun Chen, Lee-Yaw Li, Jin-Cheng Fu Hall :20-16:40

2 2 Outlines 1.Introduction 2.Described the Taiwan s CEOC 3.The Science and Technology of Improvement and Challenge for Typhoon Emergency Operation 4.The Disaster Early Warning system for Emergency Operation 5.The Disaster Early Warning Information during the Typhoon Events 6.Conclusions

3 3 1. Introduction

4 Types of Natural Disasters in Taiwan Among Typhoon, heavy rainfall, earthquake, cold disaster, and drought, the first two occupies

During a typhoon is approaching to Taiwan, the commander of the Central Emergency Operation Center (CEOC) need the early warning

proposed. 2009 Morakot Typhoon Economical Losses Typhoon Heavy rain Earthquake Cold surge Drought other 6.11% 10.85% 1.09% 0.99% 0.71% 80.

4 4 Types of Natural Disasters in Taiwan Among Typhoon, heavy rainfall, earthquake, cold disaster, and drought, the first two occupies largest portions of economic losses. The emergency operation of typhoon is very important. During a typhoon is approaching to Taiwan, the commander of the Central Emergency Operation Center (CEOC) need the early warning information using a solution-based development of science and technology as a support for decision-making to meet practical demands proposed Morakot Typhoon Economical Losses Typhoon Heavy rain Earthquake Cold surge Drought other 6.11% 10.85% 1.09% 0.99% 0.71% 80.26% 嘉義縣阿里山鄉竹崎鄉番路鄉大埔鄉屏東縣霧台鄉南投縣信義鄉高雄縣那瑪夏鄉桃源鄉甲仙鄉六龜鄉茂林鄉旗山鎮 Maximum precipitation (2884mm/24hrs) occurred 累積雨量 (mm) in Alishan

5 5 Providing Decision Support Hence, the NCDR is assigned to do the disaster early warning researches for the commander during typhoon emergency operation since 2001.

6 6 2.Described the Taiwan s CEOC

7 Introduction of CEOC 作業群組行政群組搜索救援組疏散撤離組收容安置組水電維生組管考追蹤組支援調度組幕僚參謀組新聞發布組民間資源組境外救援組行政組中央災害應變中心指揮官協同指揮官副指揮官交通工程組農林漁牧組參謀群組訊息群組財務組醫衛環保組後勤組網路資訊組情資研判組災情監控組前進指揮所作業群組行政群組搜索救援組疏散撤離組收容安置組水電維生組管考追蹤組支援調度組幕僚參謀組新聞發布組民間資源組境外救援組行政組中央災害應變中心指揮官協同指揮官副指揮官交通工程組農林漁牧組參謀群組訊息群組財務組醫衛環保組後勤組網路資訊組情資研判組災情監控組前進指揮所 Assessment Group In Taiwan, the Central Emergency Operation Center (CEOC) integrates the branches of the central government departments for making decisions to mitigate hazard damages efficiently. The NCDR is assigned to chair the assessment group. The group members are government agencies including CWB, SWBC, FB, WRA, CPA, DGH, NFA, CIP, DGH and CIO, sharing and exchange their warning information. 7 Central Weather Bureau (CWB) National Science & Technology Center for Disaster Reduction(NCDR) Soil and Water Conservation Bureau (SWCB) Forestry Bureau(FB) Water Resources Agency(WRA) Construction and Planning Agency (CPA) Directorate General of Highways(DGH) National Fire Agency(NFA) Council of Indigenous Peoples(CIP) Government Information Office(GIO) (Ministry of National Defense(MND)) (Department of Civil/Social Affairs) (Office of Disaster Management, Executive Yuan)

8 Emergency Operations of CEOC NCDR runs scientific analysis NCDR CEOC CEOC CEOC Internal Meeting every 3hrs Provide Analysis 1. Rainfall estimation 2. Flood potential 3.

Bulletin to local government NCDR reports to commander Working Meeting every 6-12 hr Overall Review 1. Situation reports 2. Readiness report 3. Assistance and deployment 4.

8 8 Emergency Operations of CEOC NCDR runs scientific analysis NCDR CEOC CEOC CEOC Internal Meeting every 3hrs Provide Analysis 1. Rainfall estimation 2. Flood potential 3. Debris flow potential 4. Precaution notice NCDR summons the meeting Assessment Meeting every 3hrs Generate Suggestions 1. Warning zones 2. Evacuation 3. Reinforcement 4. Bulletin to local government NCDR reports to commander Working Meeting every 6-12 hr Overall Review 1. Situation reports 2. Readiness report 3. Assistance and deployment 4. Emergency response NCDR reports to Press conference Press Conference every 6-12hrs Policy description 1. Situation description 2. Readiness Description 3. Assistance and deployment 4. Emergency Response Technology Policy Implementation Description

9 Assessment Group Meeting Keep track of the typhoon changes in conditions, reducing the uncertainty of early warning update every three hours and holding intelligence judged the

Disaster warning areas judged _NCDR 03_ Flood Analysis _ WRA 04_ Mudslide alert _ SWCB 05_ Storm water sewer alert _ CPA 06_ Road warning information _ DGH 07_ Dammed lake analysis

9 9 Assessment Group Meeting Keep track of the typhoon changes in conditions, reducing the uncertainty of early warning update every three hours and holding intelligence judged the seminar, Work will be reported in the intelligence judged that the report on the results Assessment Group meeting agenda 01_ Typhoon information and rainfall forecasts _ CWB 02_ Disaster warning areas judged _NCDR 03_ Flood Analysis _ WRA 04_ Mudslide alert _ SWCB 05_ Storm water sewer alert _ CPA 06_ Road warning information _ DGH 07_ Dammed lake analysis _ FB 08_ Disaster _ NFA 09_ Mountain evacuation status _CIP 10_Comprehensive _NCDR send intelligence judged the results to the other Grouping of CEOC and county Emergency Operation Center

occur extremely torrential rain areas Pingtung, Kaohsiung, Tainan, Chiayi City, Chiayi County, Yunlin County, Changhua County, Nantou County,

10 10 Weather Warning Information According to the Weather Bureau, the typhoon today (20) will be gradually moved northward through the Taiwan Strait, the double impact of the Western Taiwan and the outlying islands by typhoon and southwest airflow, stronger storms and rain forecast may occur extremely torrential rain areas Pingtung, Kaohsiung, Tainan, Chiayi City, Chiayi County, Yunlin County, Changhua County, Nantou County, Taichung City, central and southern counties, shall take strict precautions against strong winds torrential rain caused flooding and landslides occurred.

11 Landslide Warning Information On the morning of the 20th, the southern Chiayi County, Tainan, Kaohsiung, Pingtung County, Nantou County and other

countiesmountainous to alert township, preventive evacuation.

easy to interrupt position, should continue to pay attention to the rainfall trend, guard against torrential rain caused by falling rocks, avalanches,

The evening of the 20th, the central and southern mountain continued vigilance, Taipei City, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, cities and counties sloping easy

11 11 Landslide Warning Information On the morning of the 20th, the southern Chiayi County, Tainan, Kaohsiung, Pingtung County, Nantou County and other counties sloping hazard prone areas to guard against torrential rain caused by falling rocks, avalanches, mudslides landslides occurred, and for the above countiesmountainous to alert township, preventive evacuation. 20 noon, in addition to the area increase in central Taichung City, Nantou County, Yunlin County and other counties sloping easy hazard area and the road is easy to interrupt position, should continue to pay attention to the rainfall trend, guard against torrential rain caused by falling rocks, avalanches, landslides sloping disasters. The evening of the 20th, the central and southern mountain continued vigilance, Taipei City, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, cities and counties sloping easy hazard region, it is recommended to pay attention to the precipitation changes, well ahead of the disaster prevention and preparedness operations. Table 20, table 21, table 27, table 8, table 14, table 18, 24 need to guard against falling rocks, avalanches and landslides occurred, do relevant precautions and pay attention to the Directorate General of Highways to publish the information.

City, Taoyuan, Hsinchu and Miaoli damaged by the typhoon may appear larger rain,

12 12 Inundation Warning Information Today (the 20th), Chiayi, Tainan, Kaohsiung, Pingtung and Penghu and Taitung, Taichung, Changhua, Nantou, Yunlin, New Taipei City, Taoyuan, Hsinchu and Miaoli damaged by the typhoon may appear larger rain, causingriver drainage is not easy and coastal flooding, said counties should strengthen flood alert.

13 Suggestion and Disaster Information Dike Flood Road Slop Pei-men, Chi-ku Area in Tainan City Several inundation in the Kaohsiung city 24 places 2 places in Taipei city 2 places in Nantou County

13 13 Suggestion and Disaster Information Dike Flood Road Slop Pei-men, Chi-ku Area in Tainan City Several inundation in the Kaohsiung city 24 places 2 places in Taipei city 2 places in Nantou County Suggestion: Today (20) from the typhoon began to approach and influence of the western half of the land and the Islands region (Penghu, Liouciou, Kinmen, Matsu, etc.), coastal storms will be significantly enhanced, the proposed control and urged people to stay away from the beach, and are prohibited from engaging in open withwatch waves and other activities. There are sporadic disasters, built grab the disaster, the rescue work colleagues, be sure to pay attention to their own safety.

14 14 Warning Sheet Delivered Typhoon Information and rainfall forecasting Flooding warning information Weather warning information Landslide warning information

15 15 Purpose of Emergency Operation Clear expression and description of the typhoon event 1. Past disaster situations 2. Real-time monitoring information 3 Future disaster scenario. For resource scheduling, evacuation and facility preparedness

16 16 3. The Science and Technology of Improvement and Challenge for Typhoon Emergency Operation

17 17 The Stages of Emergency Operation 1945~2000 Using the structural methods for disaster reduction 2001~2006 Applications the disaster potential maps for evacuation 2007~2009 Developing modes base on Improving of monitoring and transmit 2010~2011 The ensemble forecasting and multi-mode warning for decision 2012~ Offers a variety of disaster scenario analysis and scenario simulation

18 Funds 工程經費 (billion ( 億元 / 年 year) ) ~2000 Structural Method for Disaster Reduction 河堤工程 Irrigation 灌溉及排水工程 and drainage Seawall 海堤工程區域性排水工程水庫水壩工程其他 Embankments Regional Drainage Reservoirs and dams Others Year 年別

19 1945~2000 Typhoon Events and Lessons Learned Structural methods have

19 ~2000 Typhoon Events and Lessons Learned Structural methods have their limitation, but easily ignored by people and cause safety illusion that leads to even larger disasters. Non-structural methods such as warning, response, mitigation are necessary. Urgent need for early warning information

20 ~2006 Applications the Disaster Potential Maps for Evacuation Reference Rainfall Information Rainfall Forecasting Disaster Warning Typhoon track of CWB Rainfall concentrated Landslide warning information Weather forecast of CWB Typhoon climate models Flood warning information

21 2001~2006 Typhoon Events and Lessons Learned Monitoring need to be

difficult, early warning unit is large Disaster caused by torrential rain as much

21 ~2006 Typhoon Events and Lessons Learned Monitoring need to be strengthened Risk of single-warning mode is high Evacuation operation is difficult, early warning unit is large Disaster caused by torrential rain as much as typhoon Urgent need for develop numerical models Flood disaster survey distribution survey position

最大累積雨量 ( m m ) 0-200 2 00-250 2 50-300 3 00-400 4 00-500 > 500 嘉義縣高雄縣

N S E Stage (m) 28-07-2008 11:00 28-07-2008 14:00 28-07-2008 17:00

29-07-2008 08:00 29-07-2008 11:00 29-07-2008 14:00 29-07-2008 17:00

the Numerical Models Rainfall Forecast Landslide Warning Inundation

269 ( 對數淹水高度 ) - 1.271 ( 房屋為自有 ) + 0.134 ( 對數淹水次數 ) + 0.

Qpesums estimated WRF mode (c) MQPE Landslide potential

5 公尺 ~ 1.0 公尺中 1.0 公尺 1.5 公尺 1.0 公尺 ~ 1.5 公尺高 1.5 公尺以上 1.

嘉義市嘉義市嘉義市嘉義市嘉義市嘉義市嘉義市 : 村里荖藤里後湖里保安里新厝里北湖里淹水高度 ( 公分 ) 模擬深度

2 BUILD_AREA ID COUNTY VILL 5 (m2) 竹村里模擬深度 38.2 4 1 嘉義市荖藤里 4315.

08 : 4 5 6 7 嘉義市嘉義市嘉義市嘉義市後庄里後庄里保安里後庄里 3 5 3 4 3 24264.44 9783.

95 0.00 0.03 : 淹水次數 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 FLOOD_AREA 9.4 (m2) 9.4 2518.

23 9 嘉義市後庄里 35057.09 0.25 13401.75 10 嘉義市後庄里 49489.03 0.21 1295.

58 23201 0.02 0.97 : 0.35 0.20 1.00 0.60 0.05 0.38 0.

22 最大累積雨量 ( m m ) > 500 嘉義縣高雄縣彰化縣台南縣台中縣雲林縣苗栗縣屏東縣新竹縣桃園縣台東縣花蓮縣台北縣宜蘭縣 K ilom et er s W N S E Stage (m) : : : : : : : : : : : : : ~2009 Series and Integration the Numerical Models Rainfall Forecast Landslide Warning Inundation Warning Socio-economic damage 單位淹水面積之家戶損失公式對數單位面積單位面積家戶損失 = ( 對數淹水高度 ) ( 房屋為自有 ) ( 對數淹水次數 ) ( 對數家庭人口數 ) 單位淹水面積之 ( 對數家戶每人所得 ) 家戶損失 ( 對數區域淹水時間 ) 雷達估計與地面雷達估計與地面整合降雨值與地面整合降雨值與地面觀測之差值累積量觀測之差值累積量觀測之差值累積量觀測之差值累積量雨量分佈 Qpesums estimated WRF mode (c) MQPE Landslide potential 可能淹水地區未來可能淹水地區未來可能淹水地區淹水警戒分級表淹水分級表可能淹水深度淹水分級表可能淹水深度低 0.5 公尺 1.0 公尺 0.5 公尺 ~ 1.0 公尺中 1.0 公尺 1.5 公尺 1.0 公尺 ~ 1.5 公尺高 1.5 公尺以上 1.5 公尺以上 Numerical analysis Alert zone 參數資料庫建物淹水面積計算表各村里之家戶損失結果縣市嘉義市嘉義市嘉義市嘉義市嘉義市嘉義市嘉義市嘉義市 : 村里荖藤里後湖里保安里新厝里北湖里淹水高度 ( 公分 ) 模擬深度模擬深度模擬深度模擬深度模擬深度區域淹水時間 ( 小時 ) 家庭人口數後庄里模擬深度 38.2 BUILD_AREA ID COUNTY VILL 5 (m2) 竹村里模擬深度嘉義市荖藤里香湖里模擬深度嘉義市荖藤里 : 嘉義市 : 荖藤里 : : 嘉義市嘉義市嘉義市嘉義市後庄里後庄里保安里後庄里房屋自有率 ZCODE 0.95 (m) : 淹水次數 FLOOD_AREA 9.4 (m2) : 嘉義市後庄里嘉義市後庄里嘉義市後庄里 : : : : : Disaster loss 物理易損性 estimation 社會易損性家戶每人所得 ( 元 ) RATIO : : Elements at high risk 觀測修正後 Climate mode Satellite estimated High vulnerability map Inundation probability forecast Dike Top st Stage Warning Water Level nd Stage Warning Water Level rd Stage Warning Water Level River stage forecasting Time (hr) 結合物理易損性與社會易損性進行判斷 Social vulnerability index

23 ~2009 Typhoon Events and Lessons Learned The historical disasters reference low Caused composite disasters Urgent need for multimode warning

24 2010~2011 Multi-model Establishment for Early Warning Landslide multi-models Inundation multi-models 自訂警戒顏色設定自訂警戒顏色設定導入警戒模式警戒鄉鎮圖台展示多模式警戒鄉鎮列表展示修正警戒鄉鎮修正警戒區修正

25 2010~2011 Typhoon Events and Lessons Learned

25 ~2011 Typhoon Events and Lessons Learned Situation of typhoon changes quickly, Rainfall duration is short and strong, So, shorten and limit the emergency operation time. Urgent need several of disaster scenario

26 2012~ Disaster Scenario Simulation Rainfall Scenario Simulation Landslide Scenario Simulation Inundation Scenario Simulation

2012~ Typhoon Events and Lessons Learned Early

Emphasis on critical infrastructure investigation

27 2012~ Typhoon Events and Lessons Learned Early warning information and action is combined. Using the real-time disaster for resource mobilization and allocation. Emphasis on critical infrastructure investigation and prevention. Strengthen disaster reduction as usual. Urgent need for the disaster reduction as usual

28 28 4. The Disaster Early Warning System for Emergency Operation

29 29 Early Warning Disaster Information System Flow Chart Meteorology Landslide Inundation Economy/sociology Modulized Integrated Disaster Early Warning System CWB SWBC FB WRA CPA DGH NFA CIP DGH CIO Emergency Map Disaster Decision Support Systems Assessment Meeting

30 30 Disaster Information Collect DGH SWBC WRA FB NFA Spatial intelligence community To find Coordinates and keyin Into the general-purpose GIS NFA EMIS SYATEM Disaster Decision Support Systems

31 Format of Emergency Map Help you avoid layers of different sizes than the column ruler set to

group Drawing: when to move not only in accordance with the needs of the position, fonts for Microsoft

updated automatically with the computer time Basic symbols Note: 1.

31 31 Format of Emergency Map Help you avoid layers of different sizes than the column ruler set to 1:1,500,000, are subject to change your own change control Figure-owned theme Description Four layers group Drawing: when to move not only in accordance with the needs of the position, fonts for Microsoft is black 10pt + crude Legend Within poor time link therefore we do not have to change in it will be updated automatically with the computer time Basic symbols Note: 1.Save this file or copied to another location and then use 2.MXD changes and save the file name set please refer to the event named set of content Source Explain

32 Modulized Integrated Disaster Early Warning System The system is a composition of multi conceptually different modules across various fields of meteorology, hydrology, geology, economy and

32 32 Modulized Integrated Disaster Early Warning System The system is a composition of multi conceptually different modules across various fields of meteorology, hydrology, geology, economy and sociology. The logistic bridging between the modules and the display interface have been established and put to test according to historical events. The system is now online and ready for giving reliable information of rainfall estimation, weather forecast, typhoon track forecast, slop and flood disaster warning, risk assessment, inundation simulation, social impact, and economic losses. The system is powerful and will be continuously calibrated and improved according to the performance during disaster events in the future.

33 33 Display in Disaster Decision Support Systems The warning result of connection to disaster decision support systems on display

34 34 5. The Disaster Early Warning Information during the Typhoon Events

35 35 Typhoon SAOLA(2012) cumulative rainfall distribution (7/30 20:00~8/3 14:00)

36 WRF Landslide Warning Inundation Warning 36 Disaster Early Warning Information 2012 SAOLA : :00

37 37 Disaster Distribution Inundation disaster and evacuate Landslide disaster and evacuation Comprehensive disaster and evacuation

38 38 Pictures of Emergency Operations

39 39 Typhoon TEMBIN(2012)

40 WRF Landslide Warning Inundation Warning 40 Disaster Early Warning Information 2012 TEMBIN : :00

41 41 Disaster Distribution Inundation disaster Landslide disaster Comprehensive disaster and evacuation

42 42 Pictures of Emergency Operations

43 43 6. Conclusion

44 44 Conclusion 1.The Purpose of Emergency Operation is ready to face the next disaster event, which over than the Typhoon Morakot and the Chi-Chi earthquake. 2.The disaster reduction method of the Comprehensive River Basin Management (CRBM) is our next target.

45 Thank you for your attentional!!

has become a rarity. In other words, the water resources that supply the needs in Taiwan depend crucially on the reservoirs built at least more than t

has become a rarity. In other words, the water resources that supply the needs in Taiwan depend crucially on the reservoirs built at least more than t 臺灣水利第 64 卷第 1 期民國 105 年 3 月出版 Taiwan Water Conservancy Vol. 64, No. 1, March 2016 論台灣水資源開發的必要性 The Essentiality of Water Resource Development in Taiwan * 虞國興 GWO-HSING YU 淡江大學