Microsoft Word - 19——胡聪_news_.doc

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1 基于德尔菲法的围填海对海洋资源影响指标体系研究胡聪, 尤再进, 毛海英 (,, 64000) 摘要 : 为了拓展发展空间, 围填海已经成为沿海国家海洋开发活动的重大举措, 围填海带来巨大的社会和经济效益的同时, 对海洋资源会产生许多不利影响, 要确定围填海对海洋资源影响程度, 急需采用适宜的评价指标体系分析了受围填海开发活动影响的海洋资源及其影响程度评价指标和权重的确定方法, 构建了用于评价围填海开发活动对海洋资源产生影响程度的层次结构指标体系利用德尔菲法通过三轮专家咨询给出了影响评价指标的权重研究结果表明 : 围填海开发活动影响的海洋资源可划分为港航资源旅游资源渔业资源空间资源和其他资源 5 个方面, 在 0 个评价指标中, 浅海滩涂损失率自然岸线损失比例和珍稀物种资源损失价值的权重较大, 陆域空间利用率人工岸线增加比例游客增长率旅游开发投资和海域使用金的权重较小关键词 : 德尔菲法 ; 围填海 ; 海洋资源中图分类号 : TV9 文献标识码 : A 文章编号 : (016) do: /hykx ,,, [1], [], 000, 300 k, h,,, [3] -,,, [4], [5-6] Dalkann [7],,, 1 海洋资源受到的影响和影响评价指标权重确定方法 1.1 受围填海开发活动影响的海洋资源,, [8] [9],,, : ; : : (GHME014ZC01); (LY01500) [Foundaton: Ocean energy of State Oceanc Adnstraton, No. GHME014ZC01; Scentfc research funds of Ludong Unversty, No. LY01500] : (1986-),,,,,, E-al: 0538hucong@163.co 150 / 016 / 40 / 8

2 [10] Thebaud [11],,,,, 5 1. 评价指标及权重确定的方法,, :,,,, [1], [13],,,,,,, [14],,, [15] 4,,,,,,,, 德尔菲法.1 基于德尔菲法围填海开发活动对海洋资源影响评价指标权重确定步骤,,,,,.1.1,.1. :,,, ; :,,, ; : ;,,,.1.3, K K K = (1) :,.1.3. C C, C 1 CRCj j 1 () :, C R, C, C j j Marne Scences / Vol. 40, No. 8 /

3 K j, K j j K j = (3) K j,, j s s, : s 1 = D = Cj -C = 1 V s ( ) å (4) = (5) C s, D,,V, C, C j j. 可信分析, [16], K(K>) n,, W 3~0, 8, W, W = å ( å R ) R - N 1 3 K N N 1 ( - ) (6) = K( N-1) W (7) : W, K, N, R P, P 3 围填海开发活动对海洋资源影响评价指标权重调查结果及分析 3.1 围填海开发活动对海洋资源影响评价指标的选取 [17] PSR,,, 1, 0,,,,, 3. 专家调查表,, 5 : (9 ) (7 ) (5 ) (3 ) (1 ), 3.3 专家咨询及可信分析 18, 16 ; 16, 15 ; 15, 15, 88.9%,, > (19)0.5, 93.7%,, > (19)0.1, 100% 3 15 / 016 / 40 / 8

4 表 1 评价围填海开发活动对海洋资源影响指标 Tab. 1 Evaluaton ndcators of the reclaaton effect on arne resources 表 K W 和 P Tab. Values of K, W,, and P K (%) W P spss W 0.07, df 19, 55.06, N 15 : (19)0.01 =36.19, > (19)0.01, W,, 3.4 围填海开发活动对海洋资源影响评价指标权重确定 3 C,, p C p = (8) N C å = 1 : p, C, N =1,, 3,, 0 p, p (0.0363, , 0.058, , 0.040, , , , , 0.046, , , , , , , , , , ) 4 4 : (1),, (),, (3), Marne Scences / Vol. 40, No. 8 /

5 表 3 围填海活动对海洋资源影响的评价指标第三轮咨询数据统计结果 Tab. 3 Statstcal results of 3rd round C K j V,, (4),,, (5),,, 4 结论 (1) 5 (), 0 (3), 表 4 评价指标权重 Tab. 4 Indcator weghts (%) (%) / 016 / 40 /

6 , 0 (4) 0,, : [1],. [J]., 1998, 1: Hong Huasheng, Cheng Zongtuan. Confrontng scentfc probles of ntegrated coastal zone anageent[j]. Ocean Manageent, 1998, 1: []. [R]. :, 014. The State Oceanc Adnstraton. Manageent of Marte Space Utlzaton Gazette[R]. Bejng: the State Oceanc Adnstraton, 014. [3],,. : [J]., 005, 0(4): Peng Murong, Hong Huasheng, Chen Weq.Ecologcal daage appr asal of sea reclaaton: theory, ethod and applcaton[j]. Journal of Natural resources, 005, 0(4): [4],,,. [M]. :, 008: Lu Xude, L Tao, Chen Shang, et al. Bay sea reclaaton plan envronental pact assessent of Fujan Provnce[M]. Bejng: Scence Press, 008: [5],,. [J]., 014, 7(1): Hu Cong, Yu Dngyong, Zhao Bobo. Evaluaton ethod for pact of reclaaton engneerng on arne resources-takng Caofedan reclaaton project as an exaple[j]. Urban Envronent and Urban Ecology, 014, 7(1): [6],,. [J]., 014, 33(): Hu Cong, Yu Dngyong, Zhao Bobo. Study on confnng effect of reclaaton on arne resources evaluaton n Tanjn Bnha New Area[J]. Marne Envronental Scence, 014, 33(): [7] Dalkann H, Herrera R J, Bongardt D. Analytcal strategc envronental accessent (ANSEA) developng a new approach to SEA[J]. Envronental Ipact Assessent Revew, 004, 4: [8],. [J]., 011, 11(1): Sh Zhaoguang, Shan Xnjng. Low-carbon developent odel of arne resources sustanable developent and envronent protecton[j]. Journal of Nanjng Forestry Unversty, 011, 11(1): [9]. [M]. :, 003: L Zhpng. Ecologcal Law-Dscusson on the Mechans of Coordnated Developent of Econoy and Envronent[M]. Bejng: Law Press of Chna, 003: [10],,. [J]., 005, 7(5): 0-6. Lou Dong, Gu Shuzhong, Zhong Saxang. Current stuaton and developent trend of arne ndustry n Chna[J]. Resources Scence, 005, 7(5): 0-6. [11] Thebaud O, Doyen L, Innes J. Buldng ecologcal-econoc odels and scenaros of arne resource systes: Workshop report[j]. Marne Polcy, 014, 43: [1],, 珺. AHP [J]., 006, 5(3): Guo Yanyng, Deng Yunfeng, Ren Jun. Applcaton of analytc herarchy process(ahp) ethod n coprehensve assessent of surface water qualty[j]. Journal of Lanzhou Jaotong Unversty, 006, 5(3): [13],. [J]., 008, 6(6): Zhao Guhong, Tan Shasha. Study on safety factors choce for arport apron based on Delph Method[J]. Journal of Cvl Avaton Unversty of Chna, 008, 6(6): [14],,. [J]., 005, 9(1): Xao Yanlng, Lu Xaojng, Lu Janbo. The ethod of gvng weght for perforance ndcator based on entropy ethod[j]. Journal of Daqng Petroleu Insttute, 005, 9(1): [15],,. [J]., 011, 33(4): Bao Le, Le Jnsheng, Lu Qong. Synthetcal evaluaton of etro syste safety based on prncpal coponent analyss[j]. Journal of Chna Three Gorges Unversty, 011, 33(4): [16],. [M]. :, 1999: Zhou Wencang, He Xaolang. Matheatcal Modelng Test[M]. X an: X an Jaotong Unversty Publshng House, 1999: [17],,. PSR Marne Scences / Vol. 40, No. 8 /

7 [J].,, 011, 41(7/8): Yu Dngyong, Wang Changha, Lu Hongchao. Study on reclaaton pact on arne resources based on PSR Model[J]. Perodcal of Ocean Unversty of Chna, 011, 41(7/8): Indcator syste for the pact of reclaaton on arne resources usng the Delph ethod HU Cong, YOU Za-jn, MAO Ha-yng (College of Cvl Engneerng, Certre for Ports and Coastal Natural Dsaster Preventon Dsaster and Mtgatony, Ludong Unversty, Yanta 64000, Chna) Receved: Jan.11, 016 Key words: Delph ethod; reclaaton; arne resources Abstract: Reclaaton s an portant easure for developent actvtes n coastal states as t ncreases avalable constructon space. Although reclaaton can brng great socal and econoc benefts, t s harful to arne resources. Therefore, we urgently need approprate evaluaton ndcators to deterne ts pact on arne resources. Ths paper analyzes the types of arne resource, copares the ethods used to evaluate the pact of reclaaton on arne resources and ndcator weghts, and proposes an evaluaton ndcator syste. Marne resources under the effects of reclaaton are dvded nto port, tours, fsheres, and spatal resources. Usng the Delph ethod, the weght values of 0 ndcators, based on 3 rounds of expert nvestgaton results, were obtaned. The results deonstrates that the weghtngs of beach loss rate, proporton of natural coastlne, and annual output changes n benthc ussels are large, whle the weghtngs of land space utlzaton, proporton of artfcal coastlne, reclaaton ncoe per unt area, and expropraton value of sea areas are sall. ( 本文编辑 : 刘珊珊 ) 156 / 016 / 40 / 8

農業工程學報　第43卷第4期 Journal of Chinese Agricultural Engineering

農業工程學報　第43卷第4期 Journal of Chinese Agricultural Engineering 60 2 Journal of Tawan Agrcultural Engneerng 03 6 Vol. 60, No. 2, June 204 Evaluaton Indcators for Coastal Ecotoursm based on Fuzzy Delph Method * Yu-Chuan Chang Ch-Hsang Wu /// 8 // ABSTRACT In order to

Microsoft Word - 19——胡 聪_news_.doc

Microsoft Word - 19——胡聪_news_.doc