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Colliers Quarterly Q1 2018 7 May 2018 GUANGZHOU OFFICE 广州写字楼 Rent to rise further despite heavy new supply after 2018 Xander Gao Analyst Research South China 2018 年后大量新增供应入市, 租金持续增长高煜辉分析师研究华南

We foresee steady rent growth and a low vacancy rate for the rest of 2018 due to limited new supply from Q2 to Q4 2018.

However, a high proportion of the new supply will be for self-use.

1 Colliers Quarterly Q May 2018 GUANGZHOU OFFICE 广州写字楼 Rent to rise further despite heavy new supply after 2018 Xander Gao Analyst Research South China 2018 年后大量新增供应入市, 租金持续增长高煜辉分析师研究华南 Underpinned by firm economic growth and dynamic demand for space, Guangzhou s Grade A office rent grew by 3.3% QOQ while vacancy rate dropped by 2.8 percentage points QOQ in Q We foresee steady rent growth and a low vacancy rate for the rest of 2018 due to limited new supply from Q2 to Q Looking forward to , the addition of new supply equivalent to 51% of existing office stock should prompt vacancy to rise steadily and to peak in However, a high proportion of the new supply will be for self-use. We think that office rent will increase modestly between 2019 and 2021 owing to healthy economic growth and continuous demand for new office spaces. Forecast at a glance Demand Benefiting from firm economic growth, demand for Guangzhou Grade A Office grew further in Q1 as over 177,900 sq m (1.91 million sq ft) of net absorption was recorded, up by 73% QOQ. We expect demand for offices will remain robust over the next five years due to quality new supply and favourable economic conditions in Guangzhou. Supply Only 30,500 sq m (328,300 sq ft) of new supply was launched in Q1 2018, but we expect about 0.42 million sq m (4.55 million sq ft) of new supply will be delivered in the next three quarters. We expect 51% of existing stock, i.e. over 2 million sq m 得益于稳健的经济增长与旺盛的需求,2018 年第一季度广州甲级写字楼市场租金水平环比上升 3.3%, 空置率环比下降 2.8 个百分点由于第二季度至第四季度推出市场的新增供应体量相对较小, 预计 2018 年租金水平稳步上升, 空置率将保持在低位预计 2019 至 2021 年约 262 万平方米的新增供应进入市场, 相当于全市现有体量的 51% 预计空置率从 2019 年开始逐渐上升, 并于 2020 年达到峰值但未来大量新增供应将作为企业自用, 而持续的经济增长亦将刺激写字楼的租赁需求, 我们预测 2019 至 2021 年租金水平仍会小幅上升预测一览表需求得益于稳健的经济增长, 广州甲级写字楼的需求持续增长第一季度录得净吸纳量达 17.8 万平方米, 环比增长 73% 由于广州市经济面较为乐观且优质新增供应将陆续入市, 预计未来五年写字楼需求将保持旺盛供应第一季度仅有约 3 万平方米新增供应推出市场, 但预计约 42 万平方米新增供应将在接下来三个季度陆续推出 2019 至 2021 年将有超过 200 万平方米新增供应进入市场, 相当于全市现有供应的 51%, 但大量新增供应将作为企

2 (22.44 million sq ft) of new supply, to enter the market from 2019 to However, a high proportion of this stock will be for selfuse, especially in Pazhou. Vacancy rate Given very limited new supply from Q to Q1 2018, the vacancy rate for Guangzhou Grade A office fell to 5.1% at end-q1 2018, down by 2.8 percentage points QOQ. We think vacancy will stay low in 2018 before picking up steadily due to heavy new supply in 2019 and 2020, reaching a peak of 15.0% in 业自用并集中在琶洲空置率 2017 年第四季度至 2018 年第一季度的新增供应非常有限, 截至 2018 年第一季度末, 广州甲级写字楼空置率下降至 5.1%, 环比减少 2.8 个百分点预计 2018 年空置率将保持在低位, 但 2019 年至 2020 年的大量新增供应将逐渐拉升空置率, 并于 2020 年达到 15.0% 的峰值 Rent Average rent for Grade A offices grew by 3.3% QOQ, given limited new supply and active transaction activity. Real estate, retail/trading and finance accounted for 70% of new leasing in Q We predict 6%-8% YOY growth in rent for 2018 but lower growth over , about a 3% YOY increase each year. Rising Rent led by PRNC Guangzhou s GDP surpassed RMB2.0 trillion (USD308 billion) for the first time in 2017 and the economy kept growing smoothly in Q For the first two months of 2018, industry production and fixed asset investment rose by 7.1% and 14.3% YOY. Throughput for port containers, port cargo and airport cargo also showed YOY increases of 3.7%, 12.1% and 9.2% respectively. These economic indicators highlight steady economic growth so far in 2018, which has created a robust demand for office leasing market in Q Source: Guangzhou Municipal Statistics Bureau There was only 30,500 sq m (328,300 sq ft) of new supply in Q1 2018, which is below the average of the last four quarters, 38,500 sq m (414,400 sq ft). With more than 177,900 sq m (1.91 million sq ft) of net absorption, Guangzhou s average rent increased by 3.3% QOQ to RMB175 per sqm per month (USD2.6 per sq ft per month) while the vacancy rate dropped to 5.1%, down by 2.8% percentage points at the end of Q1. All submarkets witnessed rental growth in Q1 2018, led by 4.0% QOQ growth in Pearl River New City (PRNC), the premier office submarket on RMB192 per sqm per month (USD2.8 per sq ft per month). The vacancy rate in Yuexiu saw a slight increase of 0.5% QOQ due to the launching of new supply. However, vacancy here 租金归因于有限的新增供应和活跃的市场租赁交易表现, 广州甲级写字楼平均租金环比上升 3.3% 房地产业零售 / 贸易业和金融业为 2018 年第一季度市场租赁的主力, 上述三个行业占据约 70% 的交易面积预计 2018 年租金水平将实现同比增长 6%-8%, 但 2019 至 2022 年租金涨幅或将减缓至每年同比增长 3% 珠江新城租金水平继续领跑 2017 年广州市国民生产总值首次突破 2 万亿,2018 年经济延续稳步增长 1-2 月, 全市工业生产总值与固定资产投资同比分别增长 7.1% 与 14.3%; 港口集装箱吞吐量港口货物吞吐量和机场货物吞吐量分别录得 13.7% 12.1% 和 9.2% 的同比增长上述指标反映了 2018 年广州经济持续向好的基本面, 助推了本季度旺盛的写字楼租赁需求资料来源 : 广州市统计局 2018 年第一季度仅有约 3 万平方米新增供应推出市场, 低于过去四个季度约 3.85 万平方米的平均值, 本季度全市净吸纳量达到 17.8 万平方米广州甲级写字楼平均租金环比上涨 3.3% 至 175 元每平方米每月, 空置率降至 5.1%, 环比下降 2.8 个百分点所有子市场均在本季度录得不同程度的租金涨幅珠江新城平均租金水平仍领先于其他子市场, 环比上涨 4.0% 至 192 元每平方米每月由于新增供应的入市, 越秀子市场空置率虽环比轻微上升 0.5 个百分点, 但仍处在 2.8% 的低位鉴于其他子市场只有少量可租赁面积, 本季度琶洲子市场的表现抢眼, 录得全市最快的空置率下降速度, 环比下降 4.9 个百分 2 Colliers Quarterly 7 May 2018 Guangzhou Office Colliers International

3 remains very low at 2.8%. Due to low leasable office space in other submarkets, Pazhou saw the most impressive leasing market activity in Q1, with the vacancy rate falling by 4.9 percentage points QOQ to 5.4%. Vacancy Rate and Rent 点至 5.4% 空置率及平均租金 Submarket Rent (RMB/sq m/month) QOQ Change Vacancy Rate QOQ Change 子市场平均租金 ( 元 / 平方米 / 月 ) 环比变化空置率环比变化 Pazhou % 5.4% 4.9% PRNC % 5.7% 2.3% 琶洲 % 5.4% 4.9% 珠江新城 % 5.7% 2.3% NTSC % 3.7% 3.5% 天河北体育中心 % 3.7% 3.5% Yuexiu % 2.8% 0.5% Overall % 5.1% 2.8% 越秀 % 2.8% 0.5% 全市 % 5.1% 2.8% PRNC & Pazhou dominated Q1 leasing activity and accounted for 47% and 27% of new leased space respectively. On a sector basis, the leasing market was led by real estate, retail/trading and finance sectors representing 38%, 16% and 16% of new leased areas in Guangzhou core areas respectively. Four of the five tenants leasing over 3,000 sq m (32,300 sq ft) in Q were from the real estate sector. Evergrande Group moved into Park Place and Yuexiu Financial Tower, with 10,400 sq m (111,800 sq ft) and 8,000 sq m (86,100 sq ft) respectively. Shenglong Group expanded its Guangzhou office in Central Tower, with a newly leased area of 4,600 sq m (49,500 sq ft). Guangdong Aifulan Construction occupied 3,300 sq m (35,500 sq ft) in Window of Canton. Guangzhou Efun Internet Technology, the only IT company among the top five, leased 3,000 sq m (32,300 sq ft) in Tian an Life Centre. 珠江新城子市场继续在 2018 年第一季度主导写字楼租赁市场, 琶洲子市场紧随其后 : 本季度 47% 的租赁交易面积来自珠江新城,27% 集中在琶洲此外, 租赁市场由房地产零售 / 贸易业及金融业主导, 分别占本季度全市核心区域租赁交易面积的 38%,16% 及 16% 本季度共有 5 个租赁交易超过 3,000 平方米, 其中 4 个来自房地产业恒大集团分别在环球贸易中心与越秀金融中心租下约 10,400 平方米与约 8,000 平方米 ; 升龙集团在凯华国际中心扩充约 4,600 平方米的租赁面积 ; 广东爱富兰建设有限公司于广州之窗租赁约 3,300 平方米广州易幻网络科技租赁天安人寿中心约 3,000 平方米, 是本季度 5 个主要租赁交易中唯一来自科技业的公司 3 Colliers Quarterly 7 May 2018 Guangzhou Office Colliers International

Market Share of Leased Area by Industry 行业交易面积市场份额 Market Share of Leased Area by Submarket 子市场交易面积市场份额 Major Leasing Transactions in Q1 2018 MAJOR LEASING

49,500 Window of Canton Tian an Life Centre Guangdong Aifulan Construction Guangzhou Efun Internet Technology 35,500 32,300 2018 年第一季度主要租赁交易主要租赁交易项目租户面积 (

4 Market Share of Leased Area by Industry 行业交易面积市场份额 Market Share of Leased Area by Submarket 子市场交易面积市场份额 Major Leasing Transactions in Q MAJOR LEASING TRANSACTIONS PROPERTY TENANT SIZE (SQ FT) Park Place Evergrande Group 111,800 Yuexiu Financial Tower Evergrande Group 86,100 Central Tower Shenglong Group 49,500 Window of Canton Tian an Life Centre Guangdong Aifulan Construction Guangzhou Efun Internet Technology 35,500 32, 年第一季度主要租赁交易主要租赁交易项目租户面积 ( 平方米 ) 环球贸易中心恒大集团 10,400 越秀金融大厦恒大集团 8,000 凯华国际中心升龙集团 4,600 广州之窗广东爱富兰建设 3,300 天安人寿中心广州易幻网络科技 3,000 4 Colliers Quarterly 7 May 2018 Guangzhou Office Colliers International

5 New Supply, Net Absorption and Vacancy Rate 新增供应净吸纳量及空置率 Rent by Submarket 子市场租金 Rising Vacancy Rate and Slower Rental Growth since 2019 Firm economic growth and supply of new quality offices should continue to support robust demand for office space in the next five years, as demonstrated by the dynamic leasing activities in Q For a total of 0.42 million sq m (4.55 million sq ft) of new supply to be launched in the following three quarters, 60.5% will be in Pazhou and the remainder in PRNC. This new supply should provide more available options for tenants for expansion, relocating and establishing new branches in Guangzhou. We expect 6-8% YOY rental growth and a 7-9% vacancy rate for Guangzhou Grade A office by end Given 2.62 million sq m (28.16 million sq ft) of new supply from 2019 to 2021, we believe the vacancy rate will climb steadily in 2019 and reach its peak in 2020 at 15.0%. From 2019 to 2021, we expect 53% of new supply in Guangzhou to be located in Pazhou while PRNC will follow on 13%. Despite the heavy new supply, we do not expect downward pressure on rent in Pazhou since about 54% of new supply within the submarket will be for self-use. As PRNC represents 61.5% of existing stock in Guangzhou and has matured into the premier submarket, we believe PRNC will maintain strong rental growth from 2019 to 2021 despite a 10% increase in PRNC s total stock. With PRNC s strong rental growth momentum, average rent in Guangzhou should keep increasing moderately from 2019 to 年空置率攀升, 租金增幅减缓得益于稳健的经济增长和大量优质写字楼的新增供应, 预计广州甲级写字楼市场在未来五年需求将保持旺盛, 租赁行为将保持活跃在未来三个季度, 约 42 万平方米新增供应将推出市场其中 60.5% 的体量集中在琶洲,39.5% 集中在珠江新城, 届时将为有扩张搬迁或在广州新设点等需求的租户提供更多选择预计截至 2018 年底, 广州甲级写字楼将实现同比 6%-8% 的租金增长, 空置率将维持在 7%-9% 2019 至 2021 年预计将有约 262 万平方米新增供应推出市场, 从 2019 年起, 全市空置率将逐渐攀升并于 2020 年达到 15.0% 的峰值预计 2019 至 2021 年广州市将有约 53% 和 13% 的新增供应集中在琶洲与珠江新城由于琶洲子市场约 54% 的新增供应将作为企业自用, 预计琶洲内租金水平不会面临下行压力珠江新城现占有全市 61.5% 的现有供应, 并且已发展成熟为全市最优质的子市场, 尽管珠江新城写字楼供应量将在 2019 年至 2021 年迎来 10% 的增长, 但预计珠江新城未来仍将保持强劲的租金增长在珠江新城的租金拉升势头下, 我们预测全市平均租金在 2019 至 2021 年仍保持低速增长 5 Colliers Quarterly 7 May 2018 Guangzhou Office Colliers International

South China Snapshot Shenzhen, another thriving city in South China, has surpassed Guangzhou in terms of GDP in 2017, reaching RMB2.24 trillion (USD356 billion) and up by 8.8% YOY.

5 per sq ft). Despite new supply of 110,000 sq m (1.18 million sq ft), the overall vacancy rate dropped to 11.1%, down by 2.5 percentage points QOQ.

6 South China Snapshot Shenzhen, another thriving city in South China, has surpassed Guangzhou in terms of GDP in 2017, reaching RMB2.24 trillion (USD356 billion) and up by 8.8% YOY. Like Guangzhou, Shenzhen saw very active leasing demand in Q1 2018, supported by robust economic growth. Shenzhen Grade A office rent increased by 1.3% QOQ, reaching RMB235 per sq m per month (USD3.5 per sq ft). Despite new supply of 110,000 sq m (1.18 million sq ft), the overall vacancy rate dropped to 11.1%, down by 2.5 percentage points QOQ. Futian and Luohu, the top two premier submarkets in Shenzhen, recorded 1.8% and 0.4% QOQ growth in rent, reaching RMB272 per sq m per month (USD4.0 per sq ft) and RMB219 per sq m per month (USD3.2 per sq ft) respectively. We expect 2%-3% YOY rental growth in Shenzhen s Grade A office market in Looking forward, over one third of the 6 million sq m (65 million sqft) of new supply during will come from Qianhai, where we expect rent to experience the greatest pressure. The current positive rental growth momentum for Shenzhen should slow down and a negative adjustment of 4% in 2019 is likely. However, office rent should start to pick up again in 2020 after the amount of new supply slows down. We foresee the vacancy rate in Shenzhen to rise to 29% in 2019, an increase of 18 percentage points. 华南动态把目光转向华南区另一座经济活跃的城市, 深圳深圳市 2017 年全年 GDP 高于广州市, 总量超过 2.24 万亿元 (3560 亿美元 ), 同比增长 8.8% 类似于广州市场, 迅猛发展的经济支撑了深圳本季度活跃的租赁需求, 深圳甲级写字楼平均租金环比上浮 1.3%, 达 235 元每平方米每月季内约 11 万平方米新增供应推出市场, 但全市整体空置率环比下降 2.5 个百分点至 11.1% 福田及罗湖仍为深圳写字楼最受欢迎的子市场, 租金水平环比增长 1.8% 和 0.4%, 分别达到 272 元及 219 元每平方米每个月预计 2018 年深圳甲级写字楼租金水平将实现同比 2%-3% 的同比增长 2018 至 2022 年, 深圳核心地区新增甲级写字楼供应将超过 600 万平方米, 其中超过三分之一来自前海子市场, 预计前海租金水平将面临主要压力预计全市租金水平增长的态势将减缓,2019 年或有 4 个百分点的调整性下浮但 2020 年随着新增供应回落, 租金水平将有所回升而深圳全市空置率亦将在 2019 年攀升至 29% 的高位, 与本季度相比上升 18 个百分点 For more information: Alan Fung Managing Director Guangzhou Office Services South China Alan.Fung@colliers.com Andrew Haskins Executive Director Research Asia Andrew.Haskins@colliers.com Daniel Shih Director Research & Advisory Hong Kong & South China Daniel.Shih@colliers.com Copyright 2018 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. 6 Colliers Quarterly 7 May 2018 Guangzhou Office Colliers International

Vacancy rate Guangzhou witnessed an 8.3% vacancy rate at end-q4, down by 1.7% QOQ. We expect a modest decrease in vacancy in Q due to limited ne

Vacancy rate Guangzhou witnessed an 8.3% vacancy rate at end-q4, down by 1.7% QOQ. We expect a modest decrease in vacancy in Q due to limited ne Colliers Quarterly Q4 2017 12 February 2018 GUANGZHOU OFFICE 广州写字楼 Modest Increase in Rent, Vacancy Rate Down Xander Gao Analyst Research Guangzhou 租金温和增长, 空置率下行高煜辉分析师研究广州 Guangzhou s Grade A office