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Transcription

1 MARKE TING RE SEARCH & ANALY SIS

2 ( ) ( E- mail: s citiz.n et ) : * / :18

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13 1 921,, ( L. Brown ) 1 937, 20 40,,, 2 0,, : ,, ; ,, ; ,, ; ,,, ; ,,,,,,,,,, : ; ; ( ),, 5

14 : 1.,,,,, ( T. Kinnear),20 80, 30 ( ),,, 6 Kinn ear, T., Taylor, J., M arketing Research. New Yor k, N J : McG raw- Hill, 1991, p.30.

15 1 % 2%, 80%,,,, ( ),, ( ),,,, 75% 80% ( ) 0.1% 0.2%,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :,?, 2000( 1 ), 5758 :,,2001( 8 ), 13 7

16 8,,,,, 2.,,,,,,,,,,, 20 80, ; ; , : A.C. ( A.C.Nielsen, 8.8 ) ; ( IMS Inter national, 3.65) ; ( Sell Area-Marketing, Inc., 3.2 ) ; ( Information Resources, 1.29 ) ; ( Research International, 1.03 ) MORI SERVICE S ( MORI ) 1 969,,, MORI,,,,,,,,

17 , MOR I MORI : ( ),,,,, 20 21,,, ( 1 1 ) ( ) ( ) % AC Nielsen IMS Health The Kantar Group Taylor Nelson Sofres Information Resource NFO Wordwide Nielsen Media Research GfK Group AG U nited Information Group Ipsos Group S. A :,, ( 5 ),

18 ( ) ( ) % Westat The A rbitron Maritz Marketing Research Market Facts Video Research The NPD Group Marketing Intelligence Opinion Research J.D. Power And Associates Roper Starch Worldwide Dentsu Research Sample Institut GmBH & Co. Kg Abt Asociates Sifo Research & Consulting IBOPE Group : M arketing N e ws, Augus t 14, 2000.,,,, ( ),, 11 : 1. ( Research Director) 10,

19 4,, 2. ( Assistant Director of Research ),, 3. ( Sta tistician/ Data P rocessing Specialist),,,, 4. ( Senior Analy st ),, ( ) 5. (Analyst),,,,, : (1 ) ; ( 2) ; ( 3 ) ; ( 4 ) ; (5 ) ; (6 ) ; ( 7 ) ; (8 ) ; (9 ) ; ( 10 ) ; (11) Kinn ear, T., Taylor, J., M arketing Research. New Yor k, N J : McG raw- Hill, 1991, p

20 12 :, ;,, : :, ;, :,, ;, :, ;, ; :,,, 6 20, ;, :, ;, :,, ;, : :, ;, :, :,

21 ;,, : :, ;, :, 6. ( Junior Analyst),, 7. ( Librarian ),, ( ), 8. ( Clerical Supervisor ), 9. ( Field Work Director ),,, 10. ( Full-Time Interviewer),,,,, Kinn ear, T., Taylor, J., M arketing Research. New Yor k, N J : McG raw- Hill, 1991, pp

22 ( Tabulating and Clerical H elp ), ( ),,,,, 1962 ; ( Market Research Council) 1968 ; ( F T C) 1., F TC, :, F TC, F T C,, ;,, ;, ;,, ;,,,,,

23 ,, F TC 2., :, ( ),,,,,,,,, ,,,,? ( P& G ) Arthur D.Little, Franklin Associates?, 1988, :, 15

24 ?! 1991,? 3.,,,,,,,,, :,, ; ;, ( ) 20, 2000, 500 ( ), 11,, : ( 1),, 252 : 60, 24% ; 3, 1.19%, ( 2),,,,,,,, 16 :,, 2001 ( 5), 3637 :,, 2001 ( 9 ), 3638, , :,, 2001( 1 ), 2729 :,, 2003 (4 ), :,, 2002 (4 ),12 13

25 ,,, ( 3),,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( AMA ) 1961 :, 20 80, ( Marketing Management ), ( Marketing Decision- Churchill, G., M arketing Research. Chicago, NJ: T he Dryden P ress, 1983, p

26 Making), ( Marketing Information System, MIS) :,,, :, 1988,,,,,,,,,,,?,, 5 18 ( ) : ( ), 237, 1990 ( ) P : ( ), 117,, 1988

27 ( 1 2) : ; ; ; ; ( ) ( P roblem Formulation ),,,,, ( ), 1 2 ( Research Design ), ( ),, ( Data Collection) ( ) ( ) ( ) (Data ) ( Information ), ( Data A- nalysis ), ( ), ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ), 19

28 1998,,, 288,, 0.04 %, 99.96% : ( 1),, %, 19 : %, %, 29.86%, %, %, 11.81%, 10.76%, 7.29 %, 5.21%, 4.51%, 3.82 %, 3.13 %, 2.78%, 2.43%, 1.74%, 1.39%, 0.35%, 5.21%,,, ( 2),, : 79.86%, %, 44.10%, 33.68%, 20.14%, 12.50%, %, 7.99 %, 7.64 %, ( CD ) 6.06%, 5.90%, 20,,,

29 4.51%, 4.17%, 2.43%, 1.74%, 6.25%,,,, ( 3),,? :, 73.61%,, %,, 57.29%, 5.90%, %,, 43.4% 14.93% :,,, ( 4) : %, %, %, %, %, ?, %, %, %, %, 21

30 %, %, %, %, %, 2.18%, 20150,,, :,,,, ( A.C.Burn s ) ( R.f. Bu sh), : ( ) ( ) ( ) 22 :,, 1999 ( 2), 3031 ( ) : ( ), 497,, 2001

31 , ( ),, ; ; ;,, ( ),,, 5,,,,,, ( ),,,,,,,,,,,,, 23

32 , ( ), ( ),,, 20 90, ( A T & T) 3.47,, ,, 70, ( ),,,,,,, : ( Colgat e Palmolive), ( Iris h Spring),,, 5 %, 24 :,, 2002 ( 5), :,, 2002 ( 6), 37 38

33 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( Pepsi Co) 20 80, 12.7%, ( Philip Morris Co.) ( Seven-Up) ( Coca-Cola) ( Sprite), ( Teem ),,,, Kinn ear, T., T aylor, J., M arketing Research. New York, NJ : McG raw- Hill, 1991, pp

34 ,,,,, , 18,,,,,, 3,, 3.5% 4.5%,, 1986, 6, 10,, Taurus Sable LTD Marquis,, : ,, Tauru s Sable LTD Marquis,,, 30,, 5, 50, 10, 26 Kinn ear, T., T aylor, J., M arketing R esea rc h. New York, N J : McG raw- Hill, 1991, pp.8 9.

35 , 1 400, , 80 20, ,,,,, 1974,,, 45,,,,,,,,, 1% 3%, 1 3,,,,, 4, 1 3 ( ),, Kinn ear, T., T aylor, J., M arketing Research. New York, NJ : McG raw- Hill, 1991, pp :,, 2002 ( 7),

36 1 3 28,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( ),

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40 1 2 % % , p.22. Kinn ear, T., Ta ylor, J., M a rketin g Resea rc h. New York, N J : McG raw- Hill, 32

41 ,,,, : ; ; ( ),,, : ; ; ; ; : ; ( ) ; ( ), () ( ), ( ) ( ), : ( ); ; () : () ;,; ; ; () ; ( ), 33

42 , ( ), ( ) ( ), 1 4,,, 3,, () ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) / ( ) ( ) Kinnear, T., Taylor, J., Marketing Research. New York, NJ: McGraw- Hill, 1991, p.45.

43 ( Research Team) ( ),,,,, ;,, ;,,, 1.? 2. 20,? 3. Market Research Marketing Research,? 4. 5.? ? : ( ) Kinn ear, T., T aylor, J., M arketing R esea rc h. New York, N J : McG raw- Hill, 1991, pp

44 36 : ; ; : ; ; ( ) ( Strategic Business Unit ), 30,,, 10,,,, : ( 1), ( 2), ( 3) ( 4) ; ; ; ; 5, 2 0 %, 25 % , 0.1 % :

45 : 1.? 2.? 1 2 ( P &G ) 1925,, : ; ;, ; ; 1934, ,, 4,, :,,,,,,, :,, 2000 ( 2),

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48 40 :,, SPI,, SPI,, SP I 10,, 20 60, ( ), 10% SPI,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 10 : ( 1), ( 2),

49 ( 3) SPI, ( 4) ( ), SPI,, SP I, SPI SPI, SPI, SPI,, SPI SPI, : ( 1 ) SPI 8 20 % ( 2 ) SPI :, ;, ;, ; SPI SPI,,, SP I :, : : 41

50 42 : SPI,, : ; ; : ; ; ( ) ; ; ; ; ; SPI, : :,,, SPI : ; : ; ; ; ; ; ;

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60 E i, ( Bayesian Analysis ), ( P reposterior P robablity Analy sis) ( ) : = = = =,, : = = : ( 1) : = = 0.14,, ( - 50 ) 0.14 = 208( ) = 119( ) 52, 1, 208( ) ( 2) : = = 0.73

61 ,, 1 : ( - 50 ) 0.73 = 31 ( ) 2 : = 71.6 ( ), 2, ( ) : ( ), ,,,, E i = = 148( ), , 18,, V = E i - E o = = 18( ), 18, B V = 18( ) 2 2, : ; ; 1.,,,,,, 18 2.,,,,, 53

62 ,,, 10 8,, 80% %,,,? 100 %,,, 0.6, 1, 250 ; 0.4, 2, 50,,, E i = = 170( ) 4, V = E i - E o = = 40( ) 54, ( V alue of Perfect Information ),,, 2. 70%,,?, 6.7 ( ),, 64%, ( ),, 3.,,

63 ( ),,,, 36,, 2 2,,,

64 , : 2 3 ( General Mills, Inc.),, : 1. : :, : 2. : :, :, 3. : : :, (),, 4. : : () : Kinn ear, T., T aylor, J., M arketing Research. New York, NJ : McG raw- Hill, 1991, p.134.

65 ( 777 ) 5. : () :, :, 2 4 ( Joh son Wax) ( Agree Shampoo),,,, : 1. : :, : :,,,, 2. : : : ( ) 3. Kinn ear, T., Taylor, J., M arketing Research. New Yor k, N J : McG raw- Hill, 1991, p

66 , 4. : : 400,,,, :, 58 ( Exploratory Research ),, ( ),,, : 1., 2 3, : (1 ) ; (2 ) ( ), 2 4, : 2.,,

67 : : > > >,,, ( ),, 1.,,,, 2.,,,,,,,, ( ),,,,,, 59

68 ,,,,,, : 60 (Descriptive Research ),, ( ),,,, 2 2 ( Performance Monitoring Research ),,,,, ( ) : 1., 2 3, ( ),

69 2. 2 4,,, ,,, :,, ( ),, 1., :?????? : ( 1)?,?,?,? ( 2)?? ( 3) ( 4)? 61

70 ( 5)? ( 6)?,?,,,, 2. :, ( Dummy Table),, 2 4 ( ) 2 4 ( ) A B C 62,,,, ( ),,,

71 , 1., ( T ime Series Analysis), ( Longitude Analysis), ( ), ( National Purchase Diary Panel) ,, (1 000 ) t0 t1, t0 t1 : A 20% 25%, D, B C 3% 2% ; A 175, 87.5 %, B C D , 75% 57% 37% ; C, 33%, B, 27% ; A, 25%, D, 15% ; D,, 95,, t 1 A B C D t 0 A B C D

72 : ( Omnibus Panel),,, ( Parker Pen Company) 1 100,,, 2. ( Survey), ( Cross-Sectional Design),, 2 4,, :,, ; :,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 2 5, : t0 t1,,, 64

73 ( Causal Research ) :, :, ( ),,, : 1., ( ), 2 3, : ( 1),,,,, ( 2),,,,,,,,, 65

74 , ( ), ( ) 2.,,,, ( ),,,,,, :, (, ),,,, 66 1.? 2.? 3.,? ? ( ) ?? 8.??

75 9.?? N M : ( MM RA ) ( NM) NM,, MMRA, MMRA NM, NM, NM MMRA NM NM,,,,,, NM MMRA, :,,,,,, MM RA Kinn ear, T., Taylor, J., M arketing Research. New Yor k, N J : McG raw- Hill, 1991, pp

76 NM, NM 85%, ; 9%,, ; 6% NM,,, NM NM, MMRA NM, MMRA NM, NM, MMRA, MMRA : NM? 2 2 : Kinn ear, T., Taylor, J., M arketing Research. New Yor k, N J : McG raw- Hill, 1991, pp

77 , :,,,,,, :, 710,,, :

78 , ( ) ( ), :,,,, ;, ( ) ( ) 70 ( Secondary Da ta), 2 ( SP I) ( 1 ), : , SPI, 2.,,,

79 3., , 4., , 5., ( Standard and Poor ), : ,, A., 20; B., ,, 8., 9., 10., 11., 12., 13., 14.,,, : ( )( ) : (Library Data), ( Published Data),, ( ) ( Standardized Marketing Information Service Data) Kinn ear, T., Taylor, J., M arketing Research, New Yor k, N J : McG raw- Hill, 1991, p

80 72,, ( Syndicated Data),,,, ( ),,, ( ),,,,,,,, ( ),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :

81 : 1. (N ational Purchase Diary Panel) ( Marketing Research Corporation of America) ( The Roper Organization )(Yankelovich Clancy Shulman) ( The Gallup Organization ) A.C. ( A.C. Nielsen) ( Audit and Survey ) ( Nielsen Retail Index ),,, ( Na tional Total-Market Audit), 3. ( Selling Areas Marketing, Inc, SAMI ) 450, 4., ( Du n and Bradstreet),,, ( Mcgraw- Hill) 73

82 ( DODGE REP OR T ) 5. ( Starch) (Gallup and Robinson, G&R) ( Message Reports)( Magazine Impact Studies), ( Adtel, Ltd.) ( Research Systems, Inc.) ( Audience Studies/ Com.Lab, Inc.) ( Television Testing Company) 6. A.C. ( American Research Bureau ) ( Simmons Market Research Bureau ) ( Leading Na tional Advertisers ), ( 3 1 ),,, 3 1 ( ) ( ) P redicast Forecasts Statistical Service World Almanac and Book o f Facts 74

83 ( ) ( ) Worldcast Market Guide Sales and Marketing Management Dealerscope Merchand ising Standard and Poor s Industry Survey 69 Standard and Poor s Register o f Corporations 5 Dun s Directory o f Service Com panies 5 Journal of Marketi ng Comm unications Abstracts Advertisin g A ge Journal of Advertisin g Resea rch Standard Directory o f Advertising Agencies Standard Rate and Date Serv ice 75

84 ( ) ( ) Survey o f Worl d A dvertising E x - penditures 500 Fortune Double 500 Directory 500 International Directory o f Marketing Resea rch H ouses and Service 167. : Chu rc hill, G., M ar keting Research, N J: CBS Colle ge, 1983, pp.158 ( ), :, ( 3 2 ) 3 2 ( ) ( ) B usiness Dig est Cond it ions Economic Indicators GNP Economic Re port o f the P resident 76

85 ( ) ( ) Federal Reserve Bulletin Stat ist ical Abstract o f T he Uni ted States 1 400, Survey of Current Business Count y and Cit y Data Book Census of Population Census o f Reta il T rade Census o f Manu f actures 450 Census o f T rade Who lesale 110 Commodi ty Yearbook 100 Count y Business Patterns U.S. Industrial Outlook : Chu rc hill, G., Ma rketing Resea rc h, NJ : CBS College, 1983, pp

86 78 1., 10 :,,,,,, ( ),, SP I, 1972,,,, 2.,,

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88 80,,, :, ;, ;,,,,,, ( ), 2,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 19,,,,, ( ),,,,,,,,, ( ),

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90 82 2.,, : 200 ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; 9 000, ,,, , :,,, ;,,,,,,,,,,, ;,,, ( ),, 1.,,,, 2.

91 ,,,,, ;,,,, 3.,,,,,, ( P rimary Data),,, ( Respondents),, : ; ; ; ( ), :, ; 83

92 , ( ),, ( ),,, ( ),, :, 84,,,,,,,,,,,,,

93 , ( Computer-Based Marketing Simulation System), ( ),,,,,,,,,,,, :, ( Communication Method), ; ( Observation Method),, ( Experiment ation Method ),,,,,, 85

94 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( ) : 1. ( 3 3 ),,,,, ( 3 3),, 3 3 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ),, 86 : ; ;

95 ; ( 1), : ; ;,, :,,, ;,, ;,, ;, :, ;, ;,,,,,,,,,,, 87

96 ,, ( 2) : ; : ( Focus Group Interview) ; ( Depth Interview ), 2 3,,,,, : ; ; ; ;, ; ; ;, ;,,, ; 10,, : ; ;,, 88 :,,2002( 1 ),

97 ,, ,, :,, ;,, ;,,, ;,, ;, ;,,, ;,,,,,, ( 3), ( Projective Techniques ),,,,,??, : ( T hematic Apperception Test) ; ( Role Playing ) ; ; ;,, 89

98 90, ( ),, ( ), ( ) ( ), ( ),,,?,?,, ( ), ( Cartoon Completion ),,,,,,?,,,,,, ( ) ( ),,,, :,, ; ;,, ; ;, ;,,,

99 , ( ), :, ( ) ( 4),, :,,, 2.,, :,,,, ( Personal Interview ),, ( ),,,,,

100 / / / 92 (3 4 ) : ; ; ; ; ; ; ( 1),,,,,,,, ( 2),,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( 3),,, : ( ) ; ;,

101 ,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( 4),,, ( 5),,,, ;,,,,,,,,,, ( 6),, :,,,,, ; 93

102 ,, ( ) :,, ;, ( ) ; ;,,,, :, 20 %, 60%,, ( 7), : ; ; ;,,,,,,,,,,, 800,,, 1995, 25, 1, :,,2002( 1 ), :,, 2002( 2 ), 4344

103 , ( CA TI),,, ( CAP I), CATI, ( Computer Assisted Telephone Interview ), CATI CAT I,,, ;,,,,, CAT I,,,,,,, CATI : 1.,,, 2. 15, 6,,,, CA TI 3.,, 95

104 4.,, 5.,,, 6.,,, ,,, :,,,,, ;, ;, ;,, ; ( ),, ; :,,,, :, : CA T I,, ( 6 ),

105 3 5 ( ),, ( ),,,, (),, ( ) : ; 1. ( 1),,,,, :,, 2001 ( 2),

106 98,,,, ( 2),,,,,,,, ( ),,,,, 2., A.C. ( Audimeter),,,,,, :,, ;, ;,,

107 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 18,,,,,,,,,, ( ),,,,,,, :,, 2000 ( 3),

108 , ( ) :,, ;,,,, : ; ;, X, O, T E, E X T : X = O =, TE = EX T = 1. ( Post test Design ), 3 1, E X T1 E X T2, T E, O1 O2, O1 O2 T E X E X T1 T E O1 E X T 2 O O1 O2,, T E, E X T1, E X T2, O1 = T E + EX T1 O2 = EX T2 E X T1 E X T2, 100 EX T 1 = EX T 2

109 O1 - O2 = T E + EX T 1 - EX T 2 = T E, O1 - O2 T E : (1) EX T1 = EX T2,,,, O1 - O2 TE (2) O2 = EX T2,,,,, O2 TE, : TE2 = TE O2 = TE2 + EX T2 EX T 1 = EX T 2 O1 - O2 = ( T E + EX T1 ) - ( T E2 + EX T2 ) = ( T E - T E2 ) + ( EX T1 - EX T2 ) = TE - TE 2, T E, O1 - O2 T E,, 2. ( Pret est-post test Design ), O11 O21, T E, EX T1 EX T2, O1 2 O22, ( O1 2 - O11 ) ( O22-101

110 O2 1 ) T E O11 X ( E X T1 ) T E O12 O 21 ( E X T 2 ) O O11, O12, O21, O22,, T E, E X T1, E X T2, O1 2 - O11 = T E + EX T1 O2 2 - O21 = EX T2 ( O1 2 - O11 ) - ( O22 - O2 1 ) = TE + ( EX T 1 - EX T 2 ) E X T1 E X T2, EX T1 = EX T2 ( O12 - O11 ) - ( O2 2 - O21 ) = TE, ( O12 - O1 1 ) - ( O22 - O21 ) TE 3 1, 3 6 : TE = ( O1 2 - O11 ) - ( O22 - O2 1 ) = ( ) - ( ) = = () 3 6 O11 X O O 21 O

111 : ( 1), ; ( 2),, 1 900,, ( Interactive Testing Factor ), ( Interactive Testing Effect), O11,,,, O12 T E, O2,,,,,,,,, 2 000,, 2 000,,,, :,,?,, 3. ( Solomon 4, 3 3: Group Design ) 103

112 O A11 X E X T T E + I T A O A12 O A21 E X T A O A22 X E X T T E B OB1 E X T B O B2 3 3, ( A B ) ( A B) A A ( ),, A I T, : OA12 - OA11 = EX T + TE + I T (1 ) OA22 - OA21 = E X T (2 ), B B ( ),, B, : OB1 = EX T + T E (3 ) OB2 = EX T ( 4) ( 3) (4 ) : TE = OB1 - OB2 (5 ) ( 5) ( 2) ( 1 ), A : OA12 - OA1 1 = OA2 2 - OA21 + OB1 - OB2 + I T I T = OA12 - OA11 - ( OA22 - OA21 ) - ( OB1 - OB2 ) = OA12 + OA21 + OB2 - OA11 - OA2 2 - OB ? 2.? 3.? 4.?

113 5.? 6.? ? 3 1 :V 8 V 8, V 8,, V 8, V 8, V 8,, V 8,, : ( 1), ; (2), 3 V 8 ( Sell Area-Marketing, Inc.) (3 7): 1. 31, 16, 15 2., 4 ; 4 ; 4 ; 4 Eastlack, J. & R ao, A., Mode ling R espon se to Adv er tising a nd Pricing Ch ang es for V 8 Coc ktail Veg et able Juice, M arke ting Sc ience, Su mmer 1986, pp ( ) 105

114 3. 12 (2 ),, 3,V V 8 ( % ) / ( 2 ) (2 ) ( ) ( 2 ) (2 ) ( ) ( 2 ) (2 ) (4 ) (15 ) : 1. ()()1? , :,, 2002 ( 7), 27 28

115 , 81,,, ;,,,,,,,,,,,, : 1.? FGI FGI ( Focus Group Interview, ), :,, : F GI,, 2000 ( 8),

116 108 F GI,,,,,,, ( 120 ), ( 48 ), 10, 2, 10, , 90120, 1/ 4 10, 9 :,,,,,,,,,, :,,, BP,,, 810,,,

117 :,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, : 1. F GI? 2. F GI? 109

118 ,,,,,,,, 110 ( ) (Questionaire),, , :,,,,, 2.,,

119 ,,,,,,,,,,,, 3.,,,,,,, ( ), :, ( ) ;, ;, ;, ;,, 4 1 : ( National Foods ),, ( ) p.374. Kinnear, T., Taylor, J., Marketing Research. New York, NJ: McGraw- Hill, 1991, 111

120 112 : : : : : : : : : 1.? 2.? 3.? 4.,? ,?

121 8.,? 9.? 10.? 11.,,? 12.? 13.? 14.? ? 16.? 113

122 , : 17.? 18.? 19.,? 20.? 21.? 22.,? 23.,? 24.? 25.? 114

123 26. 7? 27.? (a) ( b) 28.? 29.,? : 31. : 32.? ( 35 ) 33.? 15 ( ) 612 ( ) 1319 ( ) 20 ( ) 34.? ( ) 35. ( )? ( ) 36.? ? 115

124 :, 1.,,,,, : :? ; ; ; ; ;, : ; ; ;,,, 2.,,,,, : ; ; ; :, 116 :,, 2000( 3 ), 5 6

125 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, : ; ; ; ; ; ; ( ), : 1., 2.,,,,, 2 3, :,,, :, ;, 3., ( 2 4 ), 2 ) ( ) 4 ( 117

126 118 ( ) : ;,,,, 1.,, : ;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ;,,,,,,,,,,?, :

127 ?, ;?,,,,,,,,,,,,?, :??,,?,,,,,, 60%,, , :,,, 10, 10 10, 22 :,, 2001( 12 ), 1011 : :,, 2002( 2),

128 2.,,, ( Sensitive Question ),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, : Py = P s + ( 1 - ) Pi 120, Ps Pi = = = 1 - = Py =

129 , :,?,,, 50%, 50%, 1?, 5%, :, 10%, Ps, Pi = 5%, = 50%, 1 - = 50%, P y = 10% ( ) 10 % = 50% Ps + 50% 5% Ps = 15%,, : ; ; 1. ( Open-Ended Questions ),,,,?,,, :,,,,,,,,,,,, 121

130 122 :,,,,,,,,,,, ;,,,, 2. ( Multiple-Choice Questions ) 1,,,,, ( ), : ; ( ), :,,,,,,,,,,,,

131 ,,, 3., ( Dichotomous Questions ),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ;,,,,,, ( ),, :,, ( 1 ),

132 124 ( ), : ; ; ; ; ; 1.,,,,,,,,,,,, 2.,,,, :? A. B. C. D.,,,,, : A. B C D. 10 5,,

133 3.,,,,?,,,,,?,,?,, 4.,,,, 20 60, 1 :,? 2 :?: 1 81 %, 2 32 % : 1,,,,, 81% 2, 2,,,,,,,,

134 126,,,,?, :? A. 3 B. 2 C. 1.5 D. E. 80% 6.,, ;, ;,,, :?,,, ;,,,,, :?,,, 12, ( ),, :,,,,,,,,?:?

135 , ;,,,, : 127

136 128 ( ),,,,,,,,,, :,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( ),,,,,,,, 1530,, Office2000 Access2000 ASP,, Windows98 Office2000 ( ODBC) Access2000 Access : Access2000,,

137 : market.mdb marketdata, : ODBC : ODBC DAT A SO UCE,, SYS TEMDSN, Microsoft Access drive( *.mdb ),, market, ( ), OK, ODBC,, Office2000 FrontPage2000 F rontpage2000 ( 1), market.htm , Radio value , front send to other, options actionresult asp, : < from method = "POST"action = "result.asp"target = "blank" > asp ( result.asp), ASP result.asp

138 130 : < marketno = I Set Myconnection = Server.Crea te Object ( " ADODB.Connection" ) My Connection.Open " market" My Connection ODBC, market Set My Connection = Server.Cteated Object ( " ADODB, Command" ) My Command.Commmand type = 1 My command Command Test = " Select" from marketdata where id = " & mar ketno& " market marketda ta " marketno" Set My command. Active CONNECTION = My Connection Set RS1 = My Command, Executive p1 = RS1.Fields( "p - 1" ) p - 1 p1 p2 = RS1.Fields( "p - 2" ) p3 = RS1.Fields ( "p - 3" ) p4 = RS1.Fields( "p - 4" ) p sum = RS1.Fields ( "p - s um" ) p5 = RS1.Fields( "p - 5" ) plook = RS1.Fields ( "p - look" ) p6 = RS1.Fields( "p - 6" ) plook = look + 1 p7 = RS1.Fields( "p - 7" ) % > p8 = RS1.Fields( "p - 8" ) marketno id, id 2.,, 1, : select case aa = = = = = = case"1" case" 8"

139 p1 = p1 + 1 p8 = p8 + 1 case"2" p2 = p : edn select p sum - p1 + p2 + = = = + p8 sqlstr = "update marketda ta SE T "p - sum = " & psum &, p - 1 = " & p1 &, "p - lood = " & plood & "p - 2 = " &p2&, ",p - 8 = "&p8 "where id = "&marketno&" &,, update 4. < % = p1 % > 1, < % = psum% >, market.htm,, 2 ( res ult.asp),,,,,,,,, 10,,, : ;,, ;, 100 :,, 2001 ( 1 ),

140 , ; ,, ;, ( ) ;, ;, ;, ;,,,, ; 10, ; 1,, ; 12,,, ; 13,,, ; 14,, ; 15,,, : 1., SU N JA VA SOLARIS,, 2.,, ICP ; ( ) 3. , , 132

141 ( ), : ( ) ; ( ) ; ( ) : ; C,,,, C, C,, ( ) ( Measurement),,,,,,,, :,, 2002 ( 5),

142 134 ( Self-reporting), 4 1,, 1? ; ; ; ;, : 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,,,, 29,? 1824 ; 25 34; 3544 ; 4554 ; 5564; 65,,, 16? ; ; ; ;,, : 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 1 2, (),,, 1 2 ;, 1 2, 4 5,,, ( ),, ( scale),,, , ( 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ),,, : ; ; ;, 4 1

143 , 4 :,,, 4 1 * * ( 0, 1, 2,, 9),,,,, ( 0 < 1 < 2 < < 9), ( 2-1 = 7-6 ), ( 4/ 2 = 8/ 4 ),, *, 1. ( Nominal Scale),,,,, 4 1 1,, ,,,, :, 135

144 136, 4 1 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ( 5 ), ,, 18 ;,,, , :,? 1825 ; 2535 ; 3545; 4555; 5565; 65 ( ),, ( ),, 4 1 1, 200, 1,2,3,4,5 80, 50,20, 35, 15,, : 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 40%, 25 %,10%, 17.5 %,7.5 %, 40%,, 1,, 2. ( Ordinal Scale),, ,? ; ; ; ;,,,,,,,,,,,,

145 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( 1, 2, 3 ) 101 ( A B C), 4 2, 101 A,, 2( 51 ),, A, 2,, B 3, C 1, B C 4 2 ( ) A B C ( Interval Scale),,,,,, 137

146 ,,,,,,,,,, : 4 2 A B C ( 4 2) : B C A 4 2, A 3.0, B - 1.0, C 1.5,, : A(3.0 ) > C(1.5 ) > B( ) A - C = = 1.5 C - B = ( ) = 2.5 A - B = ( ) = ,,,,,,, A B C,

147 ,, A 1, B 2, C 3, 1,, ( A - C = 1.5, C - B = 2.5 ), B C 1, C A 1,,,,, 4 2, 15 A 3.0, 3.5, 3.0, 2.5, 4.0, 3.5, 2.5, 2.5, 2.0, 4.0, 3.0, 3.0, 2.5, 2.0, 1.5,, A 4. ( Ratio Scale),,,, ( 1),,,,,, A 7 500, B ,, 2 ( = 2 ), 2 ( 2),, 4 2,,,, 139

148 ,,, 4 2, A 3.0, C 1.5,, 2 ( = 2), A C 2, 4 2 1,, A 2.0, C 0.5,, 4 ( = 4 ), A C 4, 1, 2 4,?,,,,,,, 5 A C 2,1.5,4,8,2,, A C 2.86( = 2.86 ), A C ,,,,,, ( ) ( A ttitude),,,,,,,

149 ,,,,,, ? ;,,,,, 2 2,,,,,,,, ( ) ( ) ,,,, 2 2 (2 5 ),, ( ),,,, 3., 141

150 142 22,? ; ;,,, 20,?,, ( ),,, (? ; ), 4 A, B, C ), 4 2 ( 1 22 (? ), ( ), 4 1,,,, : ; ; ; ; 1. ( Ra ting Scale),, 4 2,,, 90 % : ; ( 1) ( Graphic Rating Scale),, 4 3:

151 4 3,,,,,,, ( 2) ( Verbal Ra ting Scale),,, 4 4: ,,,,,,,,, : 1,,, :, ( ),,,, 143

152 ,, 4 2,?, 4 4, ( ),,,,?,,,,,,,,,,, , ,,, 2. ( Rank-Order Scale), 16 :?, 6, 16,, : ; ; 144 :,,2002( 1 ),

153 ; ; ;,, 80%, :, ;,,, :,, ;, ( ),, 3. ( Paired-Comparison Scale),,,,, 10,,,,, 10,, 45 ( C 2 10 = 45 ),,,,, ( ),,,, xij i j ( i, j = A, B, C, D, E), x ij = 1, ; xij = 145

154 0,, B A 1, B A, D A 0, ( ) D A, i, i,, 5 : B > C > A > E > D 4 3 ( x ij ) A B C D E A B C D E , ( ), 4 3 ( 10 ), 4 4 Z Z, ( ), 4 5, ( ),, 4 4 ( ) A 3 2 2/ 10 Z A = B 1 4 4/ 10 ZB =

155 ( ) C 2 3 3/ 10 Z C = D 5 0 0/ 10 Z D = - E 4 1 1/ 10 Z E = ( Semantic Differential Scale), : 4 6 ( C.Osgood ), ( Multi-dimensional Scale),,, 147

156 ,,, 5. ( Likert Scale),,, (4 7 ) : () A 2 A 3 A () A 2 A 4 7 A : ( 1) A A A A A, 148 ( ), (

157 ),,, ( 2), ( 3),,, (, ) ( 4),, 4 7, 4 5, A 2, 1, 2, 0, 1 ( ) A = 6, A 10, 0, - 10A,,, 4 7,,,, ( ) : ; 149

158 ,, ( ),,,,,,,,,,,, 4 5 * x ij xi s i ti ( si/ 10 ) *, x i = j x ij / 10, s i = j ( x ij - x i ) 2 / ( 10-1 ), t i = x i / 4 5, xij 4 :, i = 1, 2,, 5, j = 1, 2,, 10, ( 1) 10 ( ) xi xi = x ij/ 10 j 150, 1, 2 4,, 3 5

159 , ( 2) 10 si si = j ( xi j - x) 2 / (10-1 ), 1, s ( s1, s ( s3 = ), 3 = ) ( 3), ti ti = xi / ( si/ 10 ) ( ),, ;,,, t0.05/ 2 ( 10-1 ) = 2.262, : t1 = > t2 = > t4 = > ,, 1 2 4,, 3,, : t3 = < t5 = < 2.262,,,, t, t 0.05/ 2 ( 10-1 ) = t (9 ) = 2.262, 0.05/ = 95 % t 151

160 ,, : 4 7 A, ( ) : A A A ( ) : A A ? 3. 4.? 5.? 6.? 7.? 8.? 9.?? 10.? 11.? ,??

161 4 1 : PUR,,, PUR PVC PU R P VC, P UR,, PVC, PU R PUR : 1. PVC % % % PUR % % Kinn ear, T., T aylor, J., M a rketing Research. New Yor k, NJ : McG raw- Hill, 1991, pp

162 2. () 3.? 4.? : ? : PU R?,: 7. PUR? : PUR PUR ( ) 8. PU R,? PU R? (1,2,3,4, 5) : 10.?

163 , 11. PU R,? : 4 2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :,,, :,, 1999 ( 5 ), ; :,, 2002 (7 ),

164 : (, ),, 29, Likert , 33 4, %, ( 31 % ),, :,, (17% ),, ( ), ( 21% ),, 156 :,, 2002 (3 ),42

165 , ( 18 % ), ( ),, : 4 4,, 1. : : 3. : 4. : 4 (, ) 1. 1 :,, 1999( 6 ),

166 , 3, 60, 38, 67.4%, 52.7% :,,,,, 30%, 21% , 3, , 3, 28,, ( ) ( ), 3., 101, 8, 64, 29,, ,, 54, ,

167 2, 5.,, 76.2%, 15.9% % 41.5%, 5% 6 %,, 3150, 1530,, 7. ( 1 ) ;, 62.3%, 53.7% ;, 3150, 62.9%, % ;,,, ( 40% ) ( 17.5% ) ( 17.5 % ) ( 28.6 % ) ( 21.4 % ) ( 21.4 % ), ( 2), 89%, ( 500 ml ) 23 / (75% ),,, 159

168 8. 58, 28 ( 48.3 % ), 12 (20.7% ), 4 ( 6.9 % ) 7 6 : 160

169 ,,,,,, ( ),, ( ) ( Sampling), ( Population), ( Elements), ( Samples) ( Cencu s), 161

170 162 : 1.,,,,, 2.,,,,, 3.,,,,,, :,,,,,,,,, ( ),, ( P robability Sampling ) ( Non-probability Sampling),

171 ,,,,,,,, ( ),,,,,,,,,,, ( ) ( Convenience Sampling ),,,,,,,,, :, ;, ; ; ( ) ( Kraft Foods),,,,,, 163

172 ,,,, :,,, :, 1 700,,, ( ), ( ),,,,, :,,,,, ( ) ( ) ( Judgment Sampling),,, 164 Kinn ear, T., Taylor, J., M arketing Research. New Yor k, N J : McG raw- Hill, 1991, p : :,,, 2001(18),4041

173 ,,,,,,,,, () 810,,,, ( )() ;,, ( Snowball Sampling),,,,, ( ) ( Quota Sampling),, p Kinnear, T., Taylor, J., Marketing Research. New York, NJ: McGraw- Hill, 1991, 165

174 , 30 62%, 30 38%,, , : % = % = 57,,93 57,,,,,,,, ( % ) % % % 2029 : : : : : : : : : :

175 5 1, : 1., 5 2 : 5 2 ( ) 2029: 40 : 30 : : 52 : 44 : : 34 : : 20 : ,,,, 5 3 : 5 3 ( ) ,, 20 29,, 167

176 ,,,,,,, ( ) 1. ( Simple Random Sampling ),, ( ),, ( ), : B, H, I, P, R,, : x1 = = x2 = = , 9 440,

177 13. 2 : ( 5 4 ), x1-1 = = 40 x2-2 = = 0. 55,,, 5 4 ( ) 1 A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T = =

178 170,,,,,,,,,,,, :,, 1 ; ( ),, ;, , 10 : 01, 02, 03,, , 71 ( ), ; ,87,, 0 4 ; 1 0, :0 3,0 4,1 0,11, 2 8,34,54, 61,7 1,72 3. ( ),,,

179 , n x = xi/ n i = 1 x - N = x j/ N j = 1 x i = x j = n = 5 N = 1, () :, 1 2 : 1 = ( ) 2 = (), x1 x2 : x1 = x2 = 13. 2, : x1-1 = = 40 x2-2 = = 0. 55,, :, = Z / 2 S/ n = x - 171

180 Z / 2 =,0 < < 1, = ( 1 - )100 % S =, S = n = n ( xi - x) 2 / ( n - 1) i = 1, : n; S; (1 - )100 % ( 1),, ;,,,,, ( 2),,, :,, ;,,, ( 3 ), (1 - )100%,, Z / 2 ( ), ;, ( 1 - )100%,, Z / 2,,, , = Z / 2 S/ n : 172 Z / 2 100,, Z / 2 95 %, ( 1 - ) 100 % = 95 %, = 0. 05, / 2 = ,, Z = 1. 96

181 ( 1 - )100% = 95 %, = 0. 05, / 2 = , : 5 Z / 2 = Z = , n = 5, x = 9 440, S = : S = n ( xi - x) 2 / ( n - 1) i = 1 = [ ( ) ( ) 2 ]/ (5-1) = Z / 2, S, n : = Z / 2 S/ n = / 5 = , 5 1 : : x = ( ) : ( ) : 95 %, , n = 8, S = %,, ( ) : = Z / 2 S/ n = / 8 = , n i = 1 ( x i - x) 2 = x 2 i n i = 1 - n x 2,, S, S,, S = Z / 2 S/ n n = Z / 2 S/ n = ( Z / 2 S/ ) 2 173

182 2. 95% 90%, = 0. 10, / 2 = 0. 05,, Z / 2 = Z0. 05 = , S = n = 5,, ( ) : = Z / 2 S/ n = / 5 = , 5 4, 20 : ( : ) 823, 545, 777, 904, 1 100, 925, 878, 656, 530, , 720, 785, 840, 658, 430, 400, 590, 800, 990 x = : n x = x i/ n = ( )/ 20 = i = 1 S = : S = n ( xi - x) 2 / ( n - 1) i = 1 = [ ( ) ( ) 2 ]/ (20-1) = ( 1 - )100% = 95 %, = 0. 05, / 2 = , : Z / 2 = Z = Z / 2, S, n : = Z / 2 S/ n = / 20 = , :

183 : x = () : ( ) : 95 % S 95 %, 50? = 50, Z / 2 = 1. 96, S = :, 50 = / n n = ( / 50) 2 = () , :, n = ( Z / 2 S/ ) 2 =, 0 < < 1 Z / 2 = = ( 1 - )100 % S =, : ( 1 - ) 100 % ; S; ( 1),, ;,,,,, ( 2),, = Z / 2 S/ n n = Z / 2 S/ n = ( Z / 2 S/ ) 2 175

184 , ;,,,,, ( 3),, ;,,,, 5 5 :, 30 /, 95%, 10 : ( : / ) 256, 307, 505, 427, 323, 444, 389, 299, 514, 468, = 30 ( / ), ( 1 - ) 100% = 95% = Z / 2 = Z = 1. 96, S = ( / ) : S = x = ( )/ 10 = [ ( ) 2 + ( ) ( ) 2 ]/ (10-1) = = 30, Z n: = 1. 96, S = n = ( Z / 2 S/ ) 2 = ( / 30) 2 = () , 25,,? n = 25, = 30, S = Z / 2,, Z / 2 / 2, (1 - ) 100% :

185 25 = ( Z / / 30 ) 2 Z / 2 = / 2 = = ( 1 - )100 % = 89. 6% 25, 95% 89. 6%,,,,,,,, ( ) 1.,,,,,,,, ( Stratified Sampling), ( Strata),,,,,, 177

186 2., ( 1) ( Proportionate Stratified Sampling ) : nj = n N j N ( j = 1, 2,, k), k =, nj = j n = Nj = j N =,,,,,,,, ( 2) (Disproportionate Stratified Sampling ), : 178 nj = n sj si i ( i = 1, 2,, k)

187 , k =, si s j = i j nj = i n =,,, 3. ( 1) : x j n j = xi j/ nj i = 1, xij =, j = 1, 2,, k, i = 1, 2,, nj k =, nj x j = j = j : x = wj k j = 1, x = x j wj ) = nj n ( ) = sj si i ( i = 1, 2,, k) ( si s j = i j 179

188 , ( 2) : s = w 2 j s 2 j j s = sj wj ) = j = nj n ( ) = sj si i ( i = 1, 2,, k) ( si s j = i j ( 3) : = Z / 2 S/ n 180, = Z / 2 =,, 0 < < 1, = ( 1 - )100% S = n = , 5 1,,,, 5 5 : 1 89, , , ,

189 5 5,, 5 5, N = 20, k = 4, : N1 = 2, N2 = 8, N3 = 5, N4 = ( ) 1 1 A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T n = 8, : 181

190 n1 = n3 = = , n2 = = 2, n4 = = 2 = ,,, () ( ) x j s j 1 1 A C F H M N Q T : 1. ( 5 6) k x = wj x j j = 1 = = ( 5 6) s = w 2 j s 2 j j = = 437.5

191 3. ( 95% ) = Z / 2 S/ n = / 8 = ( ) : ( ) : : 95 % ( Cluster Sampling ) ( ) ( Subgroups ),,,, :, ;,,, : ;, :, ; :, ( Strata), ( Subgroups ) ;,, 183

192 ,, ( ) ( ),,,, ( ) ( ),, ( ),,,, n x = i = 1 i/ n = Z / 2 S/ n x = i = i, i = 1, 2, 3,, n n = = Z / 2 =,, 0 < < 1, = ( 1 - )100% s =, S = n (i - x) 2 / ( n - 1) i = 1 184

193 ( Field Operations ),,, : ; ; ; ( ), : ;, 5 1 : , 185

194 , 16, 12 ( ) 14 ( ), 5. 5, ( ) 11 ( ), 0. 4, 0. 5, ,, ,,, 2.,,,,, ( Critical Path),,,,, 5 1, 2, 23, 22, 10 : : = 22( )

195 ,, 10 : ; 10 ; 10, ( ), : , 12 ( ) 13 ( ) 14( ) 15 ( ) , , , :,, ;, ;,, ;,,,,,, ( ) 2 ( ) 8 ( ), 187

196 , 20 80,,,, ( ),,, : ; ; ; ; ;, ( M. H auck ) ( S. St einkamp),, : 188 p.415. :,, 2001( 11), 34 : ( ),, 2001 ( 12 ), Churchill, G., M ar ketin g Rese arch, Chicago, N J : T he Dryd en P ress, 1983,

197 1.,,? 2. ( ), ( )? 3.,? (1), ( ) (2),( ) (3) ( ), ( ) (4), 189

198 (5 ), 4.?? 5.,,? ( ),,? 8.,? (1) (2) (3) (4) 9.,, ,,,,? ( ), ( 1) ( 2) ( 2. 1) ( 2. 2) ( 3) ( 3. 1) ( 3. 2) ( 3. 3) ( 3. 4) (3 )(1 ) % % [ (3) - (3. 3) ] ( 3) % % ( 3. 1 )(3 ) % % ( 3. 2 )[ ( 3. 1) + ( 3. 2 ) + ( 3. 4 ) ] % %, : ; ; 190

199 ; 1. ( E ligiblity Rate) ( E ligible Respondents),,, 2.,,,,, 3., : ; ; ( ),,,, 4. ( 33 ),,,,,,, ( Non- 191

200 192 sampling Error s), ( ) ( ), (, ) ( ) ( ),, : ; ; ( ),,, ( ) : ; ; 1.,,,,,, 2.,,,

201 1 ) : 100 %, ;, ;,,,,,, 2 ) :, ;,,,, ;, 3 ) :,,,, ;,, ( G. Churchill), : ;,,,, ; 2,, 193

202 , 3.,, : ;,,, ;, ; ; ( ) 1.,,,,,,,,, ( ),,, 2.,, :,, ;,, ;, 194 Churchill, G., M ar ketin g Research. Chicago, NJ : T he Dryden P ress, 1983, p ibid.

203 , ( ) ;,,,, ;,,,,,,,,,, ( ),,,, ( R. Kahn ) ( C. Cannel), : ; ; 1.,, p Churchill, G., M ar ketin g Rese arch. Chicago, N J : T he Dryd en P ress, 1983, 195

204 196 : ( ) ( ) (, ),, ; 2.,,,,,,,,,, : ( 1), ( 2), ( 3), ( ) ( 4)

205 , ( 5), ( 6), ( 7),, ( 8), 3. ( ) : ; ; ( 1),,,,,, ( 2),,,,,, ( 3),,,,,, ( ARF ), 5. 4%, 7. 9% :, 197

206 ;, ;, ;, ;,,,,, ? 2.? 3.? 4. ( Snowball Sampling )? 5.? 6.? ? 8.?? 9.?? 10.? ? 14.? 15.?

207 16.?? 17.? ( ) 19.?

208 , ( ),, Minitab, Excel, SAS SPSS,,, 200,, ( ) ( ) ( ) : ( ),

209 :, ( ),,,, :, H0, H1 ( ) x1, x2, x3,, xn, N = xi/ N = i = 1 N N x i = 1 i n x = xi/ n p = i = 1 n n i = 1 xi, N = n =, n N : H0 : x ( p ) H1 : x ( p ) ( ), (),, x i, 201

210 H0 H1 t : t = x - s/ n t = p - s/ n, x = p = ( xi =, = ( x i n = ) ) S =, S = p( 1 - p) n ( xi - x) 2 / ( n - 1 ) S = i = 1 1. t, H0, x (p ) 2. t, H1, x ( p ), 100 % t : t / 2 ( n - 1 ) =,, 0 < < 1, = ( 1 - ) 6 1, : , : 202 n = 200 ()

211 : x = (/ ) S = (/ ) : ? 1. : = ,, : x = = ? H0 : x = = H1 : x = = t : t = x - s/ n = / 200 = = t : ( 1 - )100 % = 95% = / 2 t : t / 2 ( n - 1 ) = t (200-1) = t ( 199) = : t t / 2 ( n - 1),, H1 t = > = t / 2 ( n - 1 ), x = = , , ( )95% t, t ( 199 ) = t ( ) =

212 6 2,,, 35. 6% 2 000, : p = 34. 1% :,? ( 1) : = 35. 6%, : p = 34. 1% = 35. 6%? H0 : p = 34. 1% = 35. 6% H1 : p = 34. 1% = 35. 6% ( 2) t : n = 2 000, S = p( 1 - p) = % ( % ) t = p - s/ n = 34. 1% % 34. 1% ( % )/ = = ( 3) t : ( 1 - )100 % = 95% = / 2 t : t / 2 ( n - 1) = t ( ) = t ( ) = ( 4) : t t / 2 ( n - 1), 204 t, t ( 1 999) = t ( ) =

213 , H0 t = < = t / 2 ( n - 1 ), p = 34. 1% = 35. 6%,, 34. 1%, 35. 6% ( ) 95%,,, 6 2,, 95% 80%,, , = ( 1 - )100 % = 80% = / 2 t : t / 2 ( n - 1 ) = t0. 10 ( ) = t (1 999) = : t t / 2 ( n - 1),, H1 t = > = t / 2 ( n - 1 ), p = % = 35. 6%,,,, ( ),, t, t ( ) = t ( ) =

214 ,,, k k x11, x21, x3 1,, xn 1 1 x12, x22, x3 2,, xn 2 2 x1 k, x2 k, x3 k,, xn k k 1, 2, 3,, k ( 1, 2, 3,, k ) k x1, x2, x3,, xk (p1, p2, p3,, pk ), 1, 2, 3,, k ( 1, 2, 3,, k ) x1, x2, x3,, xk ( p1, p2, p3,, pk ) : H0 : x1, x2, x3,, xk (p1, p2, p3,, pk ) H1 : x1, x2, x3,, xk (p1, p2, p3,, pk ) ( ) 1. x1, x2, x3,, xk x1, x2, x3,, xk F : F = sa/ ( k - 1) se/ ( n - k) 206, k = n = = nj k j = 1

215 nj sa = j, j = 1, 2,, k k = = nj ( x j - x) 2, j = 1 x j 2,, k n j = j = x ij/ nj, j = 1, i = 1 x = = nj x j/ n se = = k j = 1 k j = 1 n j i = 1 ( xi j - x j ) 2, ( 1) F,, H0, x1, x2, x3,, xk ( 2) F,, H1, x1, x2, x3,, xk, 100 % F : F( k - 1, n - k) =,, 0 < < 1, = ( 1 - ) 6 3,,, 13, (6 ) A,, ( 7 ) B,

216 6 1 ( : ) A xi1 B xi ? : B A 1. : : k = 2, n1 = 6, n2 = 7 x1 = ( )/ 6 = 183 x2 = ( )/ 7 = 190 : x1 = 183 x2 = 190? H0 : x1 = 183 x2 = 190 H1 : x1 = 183 x2 = F : n = n1 + n2 = = 13 k x = nj x j/ n = ( )/ 13 = j = 1 sa k = nj ( xj - x) 2 = 6( ) 2 + 7( ) 2 j = =

217 se k = j = 1 n j i = 1 ( xij - xj ) 2 = ( ) ( ) 2 + ( ) ( ) 2 = F = sa/ ( k - 1) se/ ( n - k) = / (2-1) / (13-2) = F : (1 - )100% = 95% = F: F( k - 1, n - k) = F0. 05 (2-1, 13-2) = F0. 05 (1, 11) = : F F( k - 1, n - k), F = > = F( k - 1, n - k), H1, x2 = 190 x1 = 183,,B A, 95% 6 4,, (10 ), ( 10 ) 6 2 :? 6 2 (100 ) : : k = 2, n1 = n2 =

218 x1 = ( )/ 10 = x2 = ( )/ 10 = : x1 = x2 = 40. 8? H0 : x1 = x2 = H1 : x1 = x2 = F : n = n1 + n2 = = 20 k x = nj x j/ n = ( )/ 20 = j = 1 sa k = nj ( xj - x) 2 = 10( ) ( ) 2 j = 1 = se k = j = 1 n j i = 1 ( x ij - x j ) 2 = ( ) ( ) 2 + ( ) ( ) 2 = F = sa/ ( k - 1 ) se/ ( n - k) = / ( 2-1) / ( 20-2) = F : ( 1 - )100% = 95% = F : F( k - 1, n - k) = F0.05 ( 2-1, 20-2) = F0.05 (1, 18) = : F F( k - 1, n - k), F = > = F0.0 5 ( 1, 18 ) 210, H1, x1 = x2 = 40. 8

219 , 95%, 6 5 ( ),, 10 ( ) 6 3 : ( ),? 6 3 ( ) (10 ) ( ) A B C : : k = 3, n1 = n2 = n3 = 6 x1 = ( )/ 6 = 7. 0 x2 = ( )/ 6 = 5. 5 x3 = ( )/ 6 = 6. 0 : x1 = 7. 0, x2 = 5. 5, x3 = 6. 0? H0 : x1 = 7. 0, x2 = 5. 5, x3 = 6. 0 H1 : x1 = 7. 0, x2 = 5. 5, x3 = F : n = n1 + n2 + n3 = =

220 k x = nj x j/ n = ( )/ 18 = j = 1 sa k = nj ( x j - x) 2 = 6( ) 2 + 6( ) 2 j = 1 + 6( ) 2 = se k = j = 1 n j i = 1 ( x ij - x j ) 2 = ( ) ( ) 2 + ( ) ( ) 2 + (5-6. 0) ( ) 2 = F = sa/ ( k - 1) se/ ( n - k) = 7. 00/ (3-1 ) 22. 5/ (18-3 ) = F : ( 1 - )100% = 95% = F : F( k - 1, n - k) = F0.05 ( 3-1, 18-3) = F0.05 (2, 15) = : F F( k - 1, n - k), F = < = F( k - 1, n - k), H0, x1 = 7. 0, x2 = 5. 5, x3 = 6. 0, ( ),, 95 % :, 75%, ( 1 - )100% = 75% = F( k - 1, n - k) = F0. 25 ( 3-1, 18-3) = F0. 25 (2, 15) = F F( k - 1, n - k),

221 F = > = F( k - 1, n - k), H1, x1 = 7. 0, x2 = 5. 5, x3 = 6. 0, 6 6 ( 6 4 ) :? 6 4 ( 100 ) :,, :,? : k = 2, n1 = n2 = 8 x1 = ( )/ 8 = x2 = ( )/ 8 = H0 : x1 = x2 = H1 : x1 = x2 = F : n = n1 + n2 = = 16 k x = nj x j/ n = ( )/ 16 = j = 1 213

222 sa k = nj ( x j - x) 2 = 8( ) 2 + 8( j = ) 2 = se k = j = 1 n j i = 1 ( xij - xj ) 2 = ( ) ( ) 2 + ( ) ( ) 2 = F = sa/ ( k - 1 ) se/ ( n - k) = / (2-1) / ( 16-2 ) = F : ( 1 - )100% = 90% = F : F( k - 1, n - k) = F0. 10 ( 2-1, 16-2) = F0. 10 (1, 14) = : F F( k - 1, n - k), F = > = F( k - 1, n - k), H1, x1 = x2 = ,, 90% 2. p1, p2, p3,, pk p1, p2, p3,, pk, p1, p2 p1, p2 t t = p1 - p2 p0 (1 - p0 ) n n1 n2, 214, 95 %,

223 pj = j, j = 1, 2 nj = j, j = 1, 2 n = = nj + n2 2 j = 1 = n1 p0 = n1 p1 + n2 p2 n 1 ) t,, H0, p1 p2 p2, 2 ) t,, H1, p1 t : t / 2 ( n - 2 ) =,, 0 < < 1, = ( 1 - ) 6 100% 7, ( ) n1 n2 = 340 = 255,, : p1 = 46%, p2 = 42% :? 1. : H0 : p1 = 46% p2 = 42% H1 : p1 = 46% p2 = 42% 2. t : n = = 595 p0 = n1 p1 + n2 p2 n = % % 595 = % 215

224 t = p1 - p2 p0 (1 - p0 ) n n1 n2 = 46% - 42% % ( % ) = t : ( 1 - )100 % = 95% = / 2 t : = t / 2 ( n - 2 ) = t (595-2) = t ( 593) = : t t / 2 ( n - 1), t = < = t / 2 ( n - 2), H0, p1 = 46 % p2 = 42%, 95% ( ) 216 t, t ( 593 ) = t ( ) =

225 , ( ) : { 1, 2, 3,, k } j = j, j = 1, 2, 3,, k, : { l1, l2, l3,, lk } lj = j = nj/ n, j = 1, 2, 3,, k n = nj, = j, j = 1, 2, 3,, k { l1, l2, l3,, lk }{ 1, 2, 3,, k } : H0 : { l1, l2, l3,, lk }{ 1, 2, 3,, k } H1 : { l1, l2, l3,, lk }{ 1, 2, 3,, k } ( ) H0 H1 2 : k 2 = n j = 1 ( lj - j ) 2 / j 1. 2,, H0, { l1, l2, l3,, lk }{ 1, 2, 3,, k } 2. 2,, H1, { l1, l2, l3,, lk }{ 1, 2, 3,, k } 2 : 217

226 , ( 2 k - 1) =,, 0 < < 1, = ( 1 - ) 6 100% 8, 200, ( / ) :? 1. :, 6 { 1, 2, 3, 4 } = {0. 25, 0. 25, 0. 25, 0. 25} 5,, { l1, l2, l3, l4 } = {0. 40, 0. 30, 0. 20, 0. 10} 218 {0. 40, 0. 30, 0. 20, } { 0. 25, 0. 25, 0. 25, 0. 25}? H0 : {0. 40, 0. 30, 0. 20, 0. 10}{0. 25, 0. 25, 0. 25, 0. 25} H1 : {0. 40, 0. 30, 0. 20, 0. 10}{0. 25, 0. 25, 0. 25, 0. 25} 2. 2 :

227 n = = 200 k 2 = n j = 1 ( lj - j ) 2 / j = 200[( ) 2 / ( ) 2 / ( ) 2 / ( ) 2 / 0. 25] = : ( 1 - )100% = 95% = : 4. : ( 2 k - 1 ) = ( 4-1) = ( 3) = ( 2 k - 1),, H1 2 = 40 > = ( 2 k - 1 ), {0. 40, 0. 30, 0. 20, 0. 10} {0. 25, 0. 25, 0. 25, 0. 25},, ( ) 95%, {0. 40, 0. 30, 0. 20, 0. 10} 6 ( ),,, ( ),, 6 7 : ? 6 6 ( ) ( % )

228 6 7 ( ) ( ) ( % ) : 6 3, 4 }, 6 { 1, 2, { 1, 2, 3, 4 } = {10%, 35%, 25%, 30%} 6 7 { l1, l2, l3, l4 }, 6 7, n1 = 1 698, n2 = 5 683, n3 = 3 945, n4 = k n = nj = = j = 1 lj = nj/ n { l1, l2, l3, l4 } = {1 698/ , 5 683/ , 3 945/ , 4 654/ } = {10. 63%, %, %, % }, , : {10. 63%, %, %, %}{10%, 35%, 25 %, 30%}? H0 : {10. 63%, %, %, %} {10 %, 35 %, 25%, 30 % } 220 H1 : {10. 63%, %, %, %} {10 %, 35 %, 25%, 30 % }

229 2. 2 : k 2 = n j = 1 ( lj - j ) 2 / j = [ ( % - 10% ) 2 / 10% + ( % - 35 % ) 2 / 35 % + (24. 69% - 25% ) 2 / 25% + ( % - 30 % ) 2 / 30 % ] = : ( 1 - )100 % = 95% = : 4. : ( 2 k - 1 ) = ( 4-1) = ( 3) = ( 2 k - 1), 2 = > = ( 2 k - 1 ), H1, {10. 63%, %, %, % } {10 %, 35%, 25 %, 30%}, ( ) 9 5 %,, , : 250, 110,, 360, :?,,? 221

230 6 8 ( ) : { 1, 2 }, { l1, l2 } 6 8, { 1, 2 } = {250/ 360, 110/ 360} = { %, % } { l1, l2 } = {240/ 360, 120/ 360} = { %, % } {66. 67%, %} { %, % }? H0 : {66. 67%, %}{69. 44%, % } H1 : {66. 67%, %}{69. 44%, % } 2. 2 : k 2 = n j = 1 ( lj - j ) 2 / j = 360[ ( % % ) 2 / % + ( % % ) 2 / % ] = : ( 1 - )100% = 95% = : 2 = ( ) 2 / ( ) = 1.16, 110,, 1990

231 2 : 4. : ( 2 k - 1 ) = ( 2-1) = ( 1) = ( 2 k - 1),, H0 {69. 44%, %} 2 = < = ( 2 k - 1), {66. 67%, % },, ( )95%,,, 1, 2 ; ( ) : { 1 1, 12, 1 3,, 1 k } { 2 1, 22, 2 3,, 2 k } ij = i j, i = : { l11, l12, l13,, l1 k } { l21, l22, l23,, l2 k }, lij = i j = nij/ ni, i = 1, 2, j = 1, 2, 3,, k ni = i, i = 1, 2 223

232 nij = i j, i = 1, 2, j = 1, 2, 3,, k, { l11, l1 2, l13,, l1 k }{ l21, l22, l2 3,, l2 k }, { 1 1, 12, 1 3,, 1 k }{ 2 1, 22, 2 3,, 2 k } : H0 : { l11, l12, l13 H1 : { l11, l12, l13,, l1 k }{ l21, l22, l23,, l2 k },, l1 k }{ l21, l22, l23,, l2 k } ( ) { l11, l12, l13,, l1 k }{ l21, l22, l23,, l2 k },, 2 k,, : { l11, l12, l13,, l1 k, l21, l22, l23,, l2 k }{ 1, 2, 3,, k, 1, 2, 3,, k }? H0 : { l11, l1 2, l1 3,, l1 k, l21, l22, l2 3,, l2 k } { 1, 2, 3,, k, 1, 2, 3,, k } H1 : { l11, l1 2, l1 3,, l1 k, l21, l22, l2 3,, l2 k } { 1, 2, 3,, k, 1, 2, 3,, k }, 2 : k 2 = n1 j = 1 ( l1 j - j ) 2 / j + n2 k j = 1 ( l2 j - j ) 2 / j j =, j = 1, 2, 3,, k, 1, 2, 3,, k 224 n = = n1 + n2 ( 1) 2,, H0, { l11, l1 2, l13,, l1 k }{ l21, l22, l2 3,, l2 k } ( 2) 2,, H1,

233 { l11, l12, l13,, l1 k }{ l21, l22, l23,, l2 k }, 2 : ( 2 2 k - 1) =,, 0 < < 1, = ( 1 - ) 6 100% 11 A B, A, B, A, B, A 600, B 400, :? 6 9 ( n i j ) 9 A B nj ni n = , 3, 4 ) 1. : { li j } ( i = 1, 2; j = 1, lij = ni j/ ni 6 9, { l11, l12, l13, l14 } = {168/ 600, 174/ 600, 150/ 600, 108/ 600} = {28%, 29 %, 25%, 18 % } { l21, l22, l23, l24 } = {116/ 400, 108/ 400, 104/ 400, 72/ 400} 225

234 = {29%, 27 %, 26%, 18 % } {28 %, 29 %, 25%, 18 % } { 29%, 27 %, 26%, 18 % }? { j }( j = 1, 2, 3, 4) j = nj/ n 6 9, { 1, 2, 3, 4 } = {284/ 1 000, 282/ 1 000, 254/ 1 000, 180/ 1 000} : = {28. 4 %, 28. 2%, %, 18. 0%} H0 : {28%, 29%, 25%, 18 %, 29 %, 27%, 26%, 18%} { 28. 4%, %, 25. 4%, 18. 0%, 28. 4%, 28. 2%, %, 18. 0%} H1 : { 28%, 29%, 25%, 18 %, 29%, 27 %, 26%, 18 % } { 28. 4%, %, 25. 4%, 18. 0%, 28. 4%, 28. 2%, %, 18. 0%} 2. 2 : k 2 = n1 j = 1 ( l1 j - j ) 2 / k j + n2 j = 1 ( l2 j - j ) 2 / j = 600[ ( 28 % % ) 2 / 28. 4% + ( 29% % ) 2 / 28. 2% + ( 25% % ) 2 / 25. 4% + ( 18% % ) 2 / 18. 0% ] [ (29% % ) 2 / 28. 4% + ( 27% % ) 2 / 28. 2% + ( 26% % ) 2 / 25. 4% + (18% % ) ] = : ( 1 - )100% = 95% = : 226 ( 2 2 k - 1 ) = (2 4-1) = ( 7) =

235 4. : 2 ( 2 2 k - 1 ),, H0 2 = < = ( 2 2 k - 1) {29 %, 27%, 26 %, 18%}, {28%, 29 %, 25 %, 18 % },,, ( )95% 1.?? 2.? 3.,? 4.? 5. t? , 8.? 9.? 10.? 11.?

236 , ( Market Segmentation ) ( Market Position ),,,,, ( Discriminant Analysis ) ( ), A B,,, : Y = 1 X1 + 2 X2 + 3 X3 + + k X k 228, X j = j, j = 1, 2, 3,, k Y =

237 j =, j = 1, 2, 3,, k, k = ( L A + L B ) - 1 x A 1 - x B 1 x A 2 - x B 2 x A 3 - x B 3 x A k - x B k, j =, j = 1, 2, 3,, k x A j = A j, j = 1, 2, 3,, k x B j = B j, j = 1, 2, 3,, k L A L B = A B k, l A ij L A = ( l A ij ) L B = ( l B i j ) : n n A B = ( x A t i - x A j ) ( x A tj - x A j ) l B ij = t = 1 t = 1 j = 1, 2,, 3, k), na nb = A B ( x B ti - x B j ) ( x B tj - x B j ) ( i,, Y c Yc k = j ( x A j + x B j )/ 2 j - 1 Y > Yc, A Y < Yc, 229

238 B, F : F = na + nb - k - 1 k na nb n A + nb k j = 1 j ( x A j - x B j ), na nb = A B ( 1) F,, (1 ) ( 2 ) ( ) ( 2) F,, ( 1 ) ( 2 ) ( ), F : F( k, na + nb - k - 1) =,, 0 < < 1, = ( 1 - ) 7 100% 1 ( ) ( 7 1) : , 7 1,, 6, : 230

239 7 1 ( 6 ) ( ) ( A) ( B) X X ,? 1. ( ) ( 1) x A j x B j ( j = 1, 2) 7 1, A, A ; B, B; j = 1 ; j = 2, x A 1 = ( )/ 6 = 5. 4 x A 2 = ( )/ 6 = 4. 4 x B 1 = ( )/ 5 = 4. 3 x B 2 = ( )/ 5 = 5. 5 ( 2) L A = ( l A i j ), L B = ( l B ij ) L A + L B l A 11 n A = ( x A t1 - x A 1 ) ( x A t1 - x A 1 ) = ( ) ( ) + ( 6. 0 t = ) ( ) + + ( ) ( ) = l A 12 n A = ( x A t1 - x A 1 ) ( x A t2 - x A 2 ) = ( ) ( ) t = 1 + ( )( ) + + ( ) ( ) = l A 21 n A = ( x A t2 - x A 2 ) ( x A t1 - x A 1 ) = ( ) ( ) t = 1 231

240 + ( )( ) + + ( ) ( ) = l A 22 n A = ( x A t2 - x A 2 ) ( x A t2 - x A 2 ) = ( ) ( ) t = 1 + ( )( ) + + ( ) ( ) = L A = ( l A i j ) = l B 1 1 n B = ( x B t1 - x B 1 ) ( x B t1 - x B 1 ) = ( ) ( ) + ( 5. 1 t = ) ( ) + + ( ) ( ) = l B 12 n B = ( x B t1 - x B 1 ) ( x B t2 - x B 2 ) = ( ) ( ) t = 1 + ( )( ) + + ( ) ( ) = l B 21 n B = ( x B t2 - x B 2 ) ( x B t1 - x B 1 ) = ( ) ( ) t = 1 + ( )( ) + + ( ) ( ) = l B 22 n B = ( x B t2 - x B 2 ) ( x B t2 - x B 2 ) = ( ) ( ) t = 1 + ( )( ) + + ( ) ( ) = L B = ( l B i j ) = L A + L B = = ( 3) ( j ) 1 2 = ( L A + L B ) - 1 x A 1 - x B 1 x A 2 - x B = =

241 1 = , 2 = ( 4) Y Y = 1 X1 + 2 X2 = X X2 2. ( ) ( ) Y c 2 = j ( x A j + x B j )/ 2 = ( )/ 2 - j ( )/ 2 = ( 1) : H0 : Y = X X2 Y c = A B ( ) H1 : Y = X X2 Y c = A B ( ) ( 2) F : F = na + nb - k - 1 na n B k k n A + nb j = 1 j ( x A j - x B j ) = [ ( ) ( ) ] = ( 3) F : ( 1 - )100% = 95% = F ( 3 ) : F( k, na + nb - k - 1 ) = F0.05 (2, ) = F0.0 5 ( 2, 8) = ( 4) : F F0.0 5 ( 2, 8), 233

242 F = > = F0.05 ( 2, 8), H1, Y = X X2 Y c = A B ( ) ( )95% 4. ( ) X1 = 4. 2 X2 = 4. 8, Y = 1 X1 + 2 X2 = = Y = < = Yc B, 7 2 ( Consumer Finance Company) ( ) 10,, 7 2 : 7 2 ( ) ( A) () X X X Green, P. E. & Tull, D. S., Rearch f or M ar ketin g Decisions, N. J. Prentice- H all, In c., Englewood Cliffs, 1978, pp

243 ( ) ( B) () X X X , 25, 2,? 1. ( ) ( 1) x A j x B j ( j = 1, 2, 3 ) 7 2, A, A ; B, B; j = 1 ; j = 2 ; j = 3, na = nb = 10 x B 1 = ( )/ 10 = x A 1 = ( )/ 10 = x B 2 = ( )/ 10 = x A 2 = ( )/ 10 = x B 3 = ( )/ 10 = 2. 5 x A 3 = ( )/ 10 = 6. 4 ( 2) L A = ( l A i j ), L B = ( l B ij ) L A + L B l A 11 n A = ( x A t1 - x A 1 ) ( x A t1 - x A 1 ) = ( ) (18. 6 t = ) + + ( ) ( ) = l A 1 2 n A = ( x A t1 - x A 1 ) ( x A t2 - x A 2 ) = ( ) ( ) + t = 1 235

244 + ( ) ( ) = l A 1 3 n A = ( x A t1 - x A 1 ) ( x A t3 - x A 3 ) = ( ) ( ) + t = 1 + ( ) ( ) = l A 2 1 n A = ( x A t2 - x A 2 ) ( x A t1 - x A 1 ) = ( ) (18. 6 t = ) + + ( ) ( ) = l A 2 2 n A = ( x A t2 - x A 2 ) ( x A t2 - x A 2 ) = ( ) ( ) + t = 1 + ( ) ( ) = l A 2 3 n A = ( x A t2 - x A 2 ) ( x A t3 - x A 3 ) = ( ) (7-6. 4) + t = 1 + ( ) ( ) = l A 3 1 n A = ( x A t3 - x A 3 ) ( x A t1 - x A 1 ) = ( ) ( ) + t = 1 + ( ) ( ) = l A 3 2 n A = ( x A t3 - x A 3 ) ( x A t2 - x A 2 ) = ( ) ( ) + t = 1 + ( ) ( ) = l A 3 3 n A = ( x A t3 - x A 3 ) ( x A t3 - x A 3 ) = ( ) (7-6. 4) + t = 1 + ( ) ( ) = L A = ( l A i j ) = l B 1 1 n B = ( x B t1 - x B 1 ) ( x B t1 - x B 1 ) = ( ) ( ) + t = 1 + ( ) ( ) = 7. 06

245 l B 1 2 n B = ( x B t1 - x B 1 ) ( x B t2 - x B 2 ) = ( ) ( ) + t = 1 + ( ) ( ) = l B 1 3 n B = ( x B t1 - x B 1 ) ( x B t3 - x B 3 ) = ( ) ( ) + t = 1 + ( ) ( ) = l B 2 1 n B = ( x B t2 - x B 2 ) ( x B t1 - x B 1 ) = ( ) ( ) + t = 1 + ( ) ( ) = l B 2 2 n B = ( x B t2 - x B 2 ) ( x B t2 - x B 2 ) = ( ) ( ) + t = 1 + ( ) ( ) = l B 2 3 n B = ( x B t1 - x B 1 ) ( x B t3 - x B 3 ) = ( ) ( ) + t = 1 + ( ) ( ) = l B 3 1 n B = ( x B t3 - x B 3 ) ( x B t1 - x B 1 ) = ( ) ( ) + t = 1 + ( ) ( ) = l B 3 2 n B = ( x B t3 - x B 3 ) ( x B t2 - x B 2 ) = ( ) ( ) + t = 1 + ( ) ( ) = l B 3 3 n B = ( x B t3 - x B 3 ) ( x B t3 - x B 3 ) = ( ) ( ) + t = 1 + ( ) ( ) = L B = ( l B i j ) =

246 L A + L B = = ( 3) ( j ) A 1 x1 - x B 1 2 = ( L A + L B ) - 1 x A 2 - x B 2 = x A 3 - x B = = , 2 = , 3 = ( 4) Y Y = 1 X1 + 2 X2 + 3 X3 = X X X3 2. ( ) ( ) Y c k = j ( x A j + x B j )/ 2 j - 1 = ( )/ ( )/ ( )/ 2 = Y > 7. 92, A, ; Y < 7. 92, B, 3. ( 1) : 238 H0 : Y = X X X3 Y c = 7. 92

247 A B ( ) H1 : Y = X X X3 Y c = A B ( ) ( 2) F : F = = na + nb - k - 1 k na nb n A + nb k j = 1 j ( x A j - x B j ) [ ( ) ( ) ( ) ] = ( 3) F : ( 1 - )100% = 95% = F : F( k, na + nb - k - 1) = F0.05 ( 3, ) ( 4) : = F0.05 (3, 16) = F F0.0 5 ( 3, 16 ), F = > = F0.05 (3, 16), H1, Y = X X X3 Yc = A B ( ) ( )95% 4. 3 ( ) X1 = 9. 5, X2 = 25 X3 = 2, Y = 1 X1 + 2 X2 + 3 X3 = = Y = < = Y c 239

248 B,,, ( ), ( Multidimensional Scale),, ( ) ( ) n k X11 X12 X1 k, Xij X21 X22 X2 k X n1 X n2 Xnk = i j,, k : X1 X2 X k 240,

249 Xj n = Xij/ n ( j = 1, 2,, k) i = 1 ( ) n k n11 n12 n1 k n21 n22 n2 k nm1 nm2 nm k, m =, i = 1, 2,, m, ni j m k = j i nij,, k : i = 1 = nij j = 1 = n, Z1 Z2 Zk Zj = k 100= Z j 7 j m = i = 1 inij/ mn ( j = 1, 2,, k) : ( ) A( 1) B(2 ) C( 3) D(4 ) E(5 ) F(6 )

250 ( ) A( 1) B(2 ) C( 3) D(4 ) E(5 ) F(6 ) ( 1) j m = i = 1 n = 150, m = 6, ini j/ mn 1 = ( )/ = = ( )/ = = ( )/ = = ( )/ = = ( )/ = = ( )/ = ( 2) Z j = Z j, ( 7 2 ) : 242 A: Z1 = Z = 0. 55; D: Z4 = Z0. 39 = ;

251 B: Z2 = Z0. 27 = ; E: Z5 = Z = 1. 41; C: Z3 = Z = ; F: Z6 = Z0. 73 = , ( 1 ) B, D, C A F E; ( 2 ) A F, ( ) ( ), n k r ( ) X11 X12 X1 k X21 X22 X2 k Xr1 X r2 Xrk, Xi j = i j, i = 1, 2,, r; j = 1, 2,, k Xij n = Xt i j/ n t = 1, k 243

252 1: ( X11, X2 1,, Xr1 ) 2: ( X12, X2 2,, Xr2 ) k: ( X1 k, X2 k,, X rk ), ( X1 j, X2 j,, Xrj ) = j k ( ) : 7 4 ( 10 ) A B C X11 = ( )/ 10 = 3. 5 X12 = ( )/ 10 = 5. 9 X13 = ( )/ 10 = 3. 7 X21 = ( )/ 10 = 6. 5 X22 = ( )/ 10 = 6. 7 X23 = ( )/ 10 = 7. 7 A : (3. 5, 6. 5 ) ; B : (5. 9, 6. 7 ) ; C : (3. 7, 7. 7 )

253 7 3 2, :, ( ) (),, ( Conjoint Analysis, ) : Churchill, G., M ar ketin g Research. Chicago, NJ : T he Dryden P ress, 1983, pp :, 2000 ( 4),

254 : 1, ;, ( 7 5) ( 334) , 36 ( ) Churchill, G., M ar ketin g Research. Chicago, NJ : T he Dryden P ress, 1983, pp :,, 2000 (4 ), 4 9

255 ( 7 7) 7 7 / / / / 0. 5 / / / / 0. 1 / / / / / ( ) X17 = = / / / / 0. 5 / 0. 4 / 0. 1 / 0. 5 / 0. 4 / 0. 1 / 0. 5 / 0. 4 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / 0. 4/ / / / / / / / /

256 5. N X Ni/ Xi : 1/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / 1. 6 N = ( )/ 36 = X = ( )/ 36 = ln X = ( Ni - N ) ( Xi - X) = ( ) ( ) + + ( ) ( ) = ln N = ( N i - N)2 = ( ) ( ) 2 = lx X = ( Xi - X) 2 = ( ) ( ) 2 = N X r N X = l N N ln X l XX = = N X , 1, ( 7 8 ), , 3, 7 8, 248

257 ( Cluster Analysis ), n n n :, n 1 d1 2 d13 d1 n 2 d23 d2 n 3 d3 n n dij = i j ( i, j = 1, 2, 3, n, i j) m = ( xk i - xkj ) 2 k = 1 xki ( xk j ) = i (j ) ( k = 1, 2,, m), ( 1) di j, ; ( 2),, ( n - 1) ( n - 1 ) ; ( 3) (1 )( 2),,

258 7 3, 7 2 : A B C D E F A B C D E F,A F 0. 06,0. 06 A F, G G, A C G : dg B = min{ da B, dfb } = min{1. 16, 1. 22} = d GC = min{ d AC, d FC } = min{0. 65, 0. 71} = d GD = min{ d AD, d FD } = min{0. 83, 0. 89} = dg E = min{ da E, dfe } = min{0. 86, 0. 80} = G B C D E G B C D E 250

259 ,C D 0. 18, C D,H H, C DH : d H G = min{ d CG, d D G } = min{0. 65, 0. 83} = dh B = min{ dcb, dd B } = min{0. 51, 0. 33} = d H E = min{ d CE, d D E } = min{2. 02, 1. 31} = H G B E H G B E,H B 0. 33,0. 33 H B,I I, H BI : d IG = min{ d H G, d BG } = min{0. 65, 1. 16} = d IE = min{ d HE, d DE } = min{1. 31, 2. 02} = I G E I G E,I G 0. 65, I G,J J, I G J : d JE = min{ d IE, d GE } = min{1. 31, 0. 80} = J E J E,0. 80 J E 251

260 , : ( 1) , : { A, F}, { B}, { C}, { D}, { E} ( 2) , : { A, F}, { B}, { C, D}, { E} ( 3) , : { A, F}, { B, C, D}, { E} ( 4) , : { A, F, B, C, D}, { E} ( 5) 0. 80, : { A, F, B, C, D, E} , ( ) A B C D E F G H I J : 69 % A,

261 A B C D E F G H I J : A B C D E F G H I J A B C D E F G H I J B C BC, A BC D E F G H I J A BC D E F G H I J 253

262 G J GJ, A BC D E F GJ H I A BC D E F GJ H I F G J G J F, A BC D E GJ F H I A BC D E GJ F H I A E A E, AE BC D GJ F H I AE BC D GJF H I 254

263 H I H I, AE BC D G JF H I AE BC D GJF HI AE GJ F AEG J F, AEG JF BC D HI AEGJ F BC D HI AEG J F D AEG J F D, AEG JFD BC HI AEG JF D BC H I AEG J F D BC AEG J F DB C, AEG J FDBC HI AEGJ FDBC HI, 73. 9, A EG J F D B C H I, : ( 1) , : 255

264 { A, F}, { B}, { C}, { D}, { E} ( 2) , : { A, F}, { B}, { C, D}, { E} ( 3) , : { A, F}, { B, C, D}, { E} ( 4) , : { A, F, B, C, D}, { E} ( 5) 0. 80, : { A, F, B, C, D, E} n nn : n 1 r12 r13 r1 n 2 r21 r23 r2 n 3 r31 r32 r3 n n, rij i j) = i j ( i, j = 1, 2, 3, n, = lii li j l jj, m) xki ( xkj ) = i ( j ) ( k = 1, 2,, l ij, l ii, l jj : 256 l ij = ( x ki - x i ) ( x kj - x j ), l i i = ( x ki - x i ) 2, l j j = ( x k j - x j ) 2

265 ( 1) ( ), 1, 1 ( 2), ( 1),, ( ) : D X , (360 ) : 1. : 4, 2,, 3 7. D X : 3, 6,, 5 2. : 3, 4,, 6 8. : 7, 3,, 7 3. : 4, 5,, 6 9. : 2, 1,, 5 4. : 2, 3,, : 3, 3,, 5 5. : 7, 1,, : 1, 2,, 7 6. : 2, 4,, 5 257

266 , 11 ( 7 10 ) : ( 1) 7 10 ( ), , , , 2 10, 10 1, 1 : 1 : 2, 8, 10 ( 2) , ( 1), : 2 : 3, 5, 7 3 : 4, 6, 9 4 : 1, : 258

267 D X ?? , 3.?? 4.? 7 5, 5.?? , 7 1 (), 7 12: 7 12 : :,, 2001 ( 10 ),

268 1., 2., ( ) , 7 2 ( 10 ), ( ) SPSS, : Y = X X X3, X1, X2, X3 :

269 , ( Marketing Mix),,,, :, ( ),, ( ), ( Analysis of Variance) :, ( ),, ( F ) 261

270 , ( ) 1,, : 1. A r : A1, A2, A3,, Ar A X : A1, A2, A3,, Ar x1 1, x1 2, x1 3,, x1 r x2 1, x2 2, x2 3,, x2 r xn1, xn2, xn3,, xnr x1, x2, x3,, xr 262, 2,, n 2,, r xij = Aj (i ), i = 1, n x j = Aj = xij/ n, j = 1, i = 1 H0 : A X,, x1, x2, x3,, xr H1 : A X,, x1, x2, x3,, xr , F

271 8 1 ( ) F sa se ( ) s T r n( x j - x) 2 r - 1 sa/ ( r - 1 ) j = 1 r n j = 1 i = 1 r n j = 1 i = 1 ( x ij - x j ) 2 r( n - 1 ) se/ r( n - 1 ) ( x ij - x) 2 = sa + se rn - 1 sa/ ( r - 1 ) se/ r( n - 1 ), : x j n = xi j/ n, i = 1 3. F ( F ) : r x = x j/ r, j = 1, 2,, k j = 1 F[ r - 1, r( n - 1) ] =,, 0 < < 1, = (1 - ) 100 % ( 1) F,, H0, x1, x2, x3,, xr, A X ( 2) F,, H1, x1, x2, x3,, xr 8, A X 1, (),, 3, 5 3,

272 8 2 ( : ) A1 A2 A3 ( ) ( 1) (2) H0 : A X H1 : A X : 8 3 ( ) F s A s E ( ) s T r = 3, n = 5, rn = 15 x1 = ( )/ 5 = 52.6 x2 = ( )/ 5 = 40.0 x3 = ( )/ 5 = x = ( )/ 3 = 49.0

273 sa st se r = n( x j - x) 2 = 5( ) j = 1 ( ) 2 = r n = j = 1 i = 1 = r n = j = 1 i = 1 ( xi j - x) 2 = ( ) ( ) 2 ( xij - x j ) 2 = ( ) ( ) 2 + ( ) ( ) 2 + ( ) ( ) 2 = se = st - sa = = F = sa/ ( r - 1) se/ r( n - 1) = 615.6/ (3-1 ) 216.4/ 3(5-1) = 615.6/ / 12 = = F = 0.05 F[ r - 1, r( n - 1) ] = F0.05 (2, 12) = 3.89 F = 17.1 > 3.89 = F0.0 5 (2, 12), H1, A X 95%,,,, 265

274 ( ) : 1. A r, B s, A B, ( rs ) x : A1, A2, A3,, Ar B1 x11, x1 2, x13,, x1 r, x B 1 B2 x21, x2 2, x23,, x2 r, x B 2, Bs x s1, xs2, xs3,, xsr, x B s x A 1, x A 2, x A 3,, x A r xij = Bi A j s x A j = Aj = xij/ s i = 1 r x i B = Bi = xij/ r j = 1 H0 A : A X ; H1 A : H0 B : B X ; H1 B : : 8 4 ( ) F A s A B s B r s( x A j - x) 2 r - 1 s A / ( r - 1) F A = j = 1 s r( x B i - x) 2 s - 1 s B / ( s - 1) FB = i = 1 sa/ ( r - 1) s E / ( r - 1) ( s - 1) sb/ ( s - 1) s E / ( r - 1)( s - 1) s E = s T - s A - s B ( r - 1) ( s - 1) s E / ( r - 1) ( s - 1) ( ) s T r s j = 1 i = 1 ( xij - x) 2 rs

275 : 3. r s x = x A j / r = j = 1 i = 1 F ( F ) : x B i / s F A [ r - 1, ( r - 1) ( s - 1) ] F B [ s - 1, ( r - 1 ) ( s - 1 ) ] FA FB 8, A B 2 :, 3, ( : ) A1 A2 A3 B B B H0 A : A X ; H1 A : H0 B : B X ; H1 B : : 267

276 8 6 ( ) F A s A B s B s E ( ) s T : ( r = s = 3 ) x A 1 = ( )/ 3 = 52.7 x B 1 = ( )/ 3 = 50.7 x A 2 = ( )/ 3 = 38.0 x B 2 = ( )/ 3 = 50.0 x A 3 = ( )/ 3 = 52.0 x B 3 = ( )/ 3 = 42.0 x = ( )/ 3 = 47.6 sa = 3( ) ( ) 2 = ; 3-1 = 2 sb = 3( ) ( ) 2 = ; 3-1 = 2 st = ( ) 2 + ( ) ( ) 2 = ; 33-1 = 8 se = st - sa - sb = = 47.4; ( 3-1 ) ( 3-1 ) = 4 FA = 412.6/ / 4 = = 17.4 FB = 140.2/ / 4 = = F, F0.05 (2, 4 ) = 6.94, F0.10 ( 2, 4) = 4.32

277 FA = 17.4 > 6.94 = F0.05 ( 2, 4) F0.05 (2, 4 ) = 6.94 > FB = 5.92 > 4.32 = F0.10 (2, 4 ) ( 1) 95%, H1 A, H1 B,, ( 2) 90%, H1 A H 1 B, ( ),,, : ( ), 3, 8 7 (, 3; C, ), ( : ) A1 A2 A3 B1 59( C2 ) 44( C3 ) 51( C1 ) 51.3 B 2 53( C 1 ) 38( C 2 ) 59( C 3 ) 50.0 B 3 49( C 3 ) 33( C 1 ) 48( C 2 ) H0 A : A X ; H1 A : 269

278 H0 B : B X ; H1 B : H0 C : C X ; H1 C : : 8 8 ( ) F s A s B s C s E ( ) st , x A 1 = 53.7 x B 1 = 51.3 x C 1 = ( )/ 3 = 45.7 x A 2 = 38.3 x B 2 = 50.0 x C 2 = ( )/ 3 = 48.3 x3 A = 52.7 x3 B = 43.3 x3 C = ( )/ 3 = 50.7 x = 48.2 sa = 3( ) ( ) 2 = ; 3-1 = 2 sb = 3( ) ( ) 2 = ; 3-1 = 2 sc = 3( ) ( ) 2 = 4.2 ; 3-1 = 2 st = ( ) 2 + ( ) ( ) 2 = ; = se = st - sa - sb = = 76.5 ; = 2

279 FA = FB = 445.5/ / / / 2 = = 5.8 = = 1.4 FC = 4.2/ / 2 = = F, F0.25 (2, 2 ) = 3.15, FA = 5.8 > 3.15 = F0.25 ( 2, 2) FB = 1.4 < 3.15 = F0.25 (2, 2 ) FC = 0.05 < 3.15 = F0.2 5 ( 2, 2), 75 %, H 1 A, H 1 B H 1 C,,, ,,, ( ),, A( r ) B( s ) A B( rs ), x t, rst x ij k ( i = 1, 2,, r; j = 1, 2,, s; k = 1, 2,, t),, A, B A B 8 9 : 8 9 ( ) F r A sa = st( x A i - x) 2 r - 1 s A / ( r - 1) i = 1 s B sb = rt( x B j - x) 2 s - 1 s B / ( s - 1) j = 1 sa/ ( r - 1) s E / rs( t - 1) sb/ ( s - 1) s E / rs( t - 1) 271

280 ( ) F AB sab = st - sa - ( r - 1) s A B / ( r - 1) sab/ ( r - 1) ( s - 1) s B - s E ( s - 1) ( s - 1) se/ rs( t - 1) t s r se = k = 1 j = 1 i = 1 ( ) s T = t s r k = 1 j = 1 i = 1 ( xij k - x AB ij ) 2 rs( t - 1) se/ rs( t - 1) ( x ij k - x) 2 rst - 1 : r s s r x = x A j / r = x B i / s, x A i = x ij AB / s, x B j = x AB j = 1 i = 1 j = 1 i = 1 x AB ij 8 t = xij k/ t k = 1 4 : i j / r,,,, ( : ) A 1 A 2 A 3 B1 B2 B1 B2 B1 B x AB ij H0 A : A X ; H1 A : H0 B : C X ; H1 B : H0 AB : A B X ; H1 AB :

281 : 8 11 ( ) F A sa B sb A B s AB s E ( ) s T , : r = 3, s = 2, t = 3 x AB 11 = 20.3 x AB 2 1 = 19.3 x AB 31 = 24.7 x AB 12 = 20.0 x AB 2 2 = 12.3 x AB 32 = 18.3 x A 1 = ( )/ 2 = 20.2 x B 1 = ( )/ 3 = 21.4 x A 2 = ( )/ 2 = 15.8 x B 2 = ( )/ 3 = 16.9 x A 3 = ( )/ 2 = 21.5 x = ( )/ 3 = 19.2 sa = 23( ) ( ) 2 = ; 3-1 = 2 sb = 32( ) ( ) 2 = 60.8; 2-1 = 1 se = [ ( ) ( ) 2 ] + [ ( ) ( ) 2 ] + [ ( ) ( ) 2 ] 273

282 + [ ( ) ( ) 2 ] + [ ( ) ( ) 2 ] + [ ( ) ( ) 2 ] = 102.4; 32(3-1) = 12 st = ( ) 2 + ( ) ( ) 2 = ; = 17 sa B = st - sa - sb - se = = 55.2 ; ( 3-1 )( 2-1) = 2 FA = FB = 107.1/ / / / 12 = = 6.3 = = 7.1 FAB = 55.2/ / 12 = = F, F0.05 (2, 12) = 3.98, F0.0 5 ( 1, 12 ) = 4.75, F0.10 ( 2, 12 ) = 2.81, FA = 6.3 > 3.98 = F0.05 (2, 12) FB = 7.1 > 4.75 = F0.0 5 ( 1, 12 ) FAB = 3.2 > 2.81 = F0.1 0 ( 2, 12 ) 274, 95%, H1 A H1 B, 90%, H1 AB,, ( 95% ) ; ( 90% ),,,,

283 ,,,,, ( Regression Analysis), : 1. x n, n y, : y1, y2, y3,, yn x1, x2, x3,, xn y x r x y y x : rx y = l x x lx y l yy ( 1) rx y 1,, y x ; ( 2) rx y 0,, y x 2. y x, ( ) : yt = b0 + b1 x t + et, x t x t, yt x t l xy, l xx, l yy : l xy = ( x t - x) ( y t - y), l x x = ( x t - x) 2, l y y = ( y t - y) 2 275

284 , b0, b1, et e, y x,,, ( ) : y t = b^ 0 + b^ 1 xt ^ b 1 = lx y l x x ^ b 0 = y - b^ 1 x ^ b 1, b^ 0 b^ 1, ( ) yt = b^ 0 + ^ b 1 xt, y x 3. x y t = b^ 0 + b^ 1 x t,, x, ( ) ( 1) H0 : x y () H1 : x y () ( 2) 8 12 ( ) F U = ^ b1 l xy 1 U/ 1 U/ 1 Q/ ( n - 2) Q = l yy - U n - 2 Q/ ( n - 2) ( ) s T = l yy = U + Q n

285 ( 3) F, F F(1, n - 2), =,, 0 < < 1, = ( 1 - ) 100 % F,, H0, x y, F,, H1, x y, ,, y: ( ) x: ( ) y: ( ) x: ( ) : ( ) : ( ),, 2000, , n = 20, , 1990, 277

286 x = ( )/ 20 = 39.8 y = ( )/ 20 = 80.5 lx y = ( xt - x) ( yt - y) = ( ) ( ) + + ( ) ( ) = lx x = ( xt - x) 2 = ( ) ( ) 2 = ly y = ( yt - y) 2 = ( ) ( ) 2 = rx y = l x x lx y l yy = = rx y = , y x 2. ^ b 1 = lx y l x x = = ^ b 0 = y - b^1 x = = 36.4 : yt = b^0 + b^ 1 x t = xt 3. ( 1) H0 : x y () H1 : x y () ( 2) 278

287 8 14 ( ) F ( ) U = b^1 lx y = = U/ 1 = st = ly y = Q = lyy - U = = Q/ ( n - 2) = / (20-2 ) = F = U/ 1 Q( n - 2 ) = = ( 3) F, F F( 1, n - 2 ) = F0.05 ( 1, 18 ) = 4.41 F = > 4.41 = F0.05 (1, 18 ),, H1, x y, yt = xt 95%,, 1. k x1, x2,, xk ( n ), n y, : y1, y2, y3,, yn x1 x1 1, x21, x31,, xn1 279

288 x2 x12, x2 2, x32,, xn2 xk x1 k, x2 k, x3 k,, xnk y x j ( j = 1, 2,, k) rjy y x j : rjy = l j j ljy l yy ( 1) rj y 1,, y x j ; ( 2) rx y 0,, y x j 2. y x 1, x2,, xk, ( ) : yt = b0 + b1 xt1 + b2 xt2 + + bk x tk + et, t = 1, 2,, n, xtj = x j t, j = 1, 2,, k yt = x t1, x t2,, xtk, b0 b1 et =, =, = e, y x,,, ( ) : y t = b^0 + b^1 x t1 + b^2 x t2 + + b^ k x tk 280 l jy, l j j, l y y ( j = 1, 2,, k) : l jy = ( x tj - x j ) ( y t - y), l jj = ( x tj - x j ) 2, l yy = ( y t - y) 2

289 ^1 b ^2 b = ( cij ) ^ b k l1 y l2 y = ( li j ) - 1 lk y l1 y l2 y lky ^0 b = y - b^1 x1 - b^ 2 x2 - - b^ k x k, ( cij ) = ( lij ) - 1, lij = ( xti - x i ) ( xtj - x j ) ^ b 1, b^2,, b^ k b^0 b^ 1, b^2,, b^ k, ( ) yt = b^0 + b^1 xt1 + b^2 xt2 + + b^ k x tk, y x 1, x2,, xk 3. yt = b^0 + b^1 xt1 + b^2 xt2 + + b^k x tk x1, x2,, xk y, ( 1) H1 : x1, x2,, xk y ( ) H1 j : x j, j = 1, 2,, k ( 2) 8 y ( ) 15 ( ) F y t ( ) xj ( ) k U = ^ b j l jy k U/ k F = j = 1 p j = b^ 2 j / cjj 1 pj/ 1 Fj = Q = lyy - U n - k - 1 Q/ ( n - k - 1) y ( ) s T = lyy = U + Q n - 1 U/ k Q/ ( n - k - 1) p j/ 1 Q/ ( n - k - 1), c j j ( c ij ) = ( l ij ) - 1, j = 1, 2,, k 281

290 ( 3) F > F( k, n - k - 1 ), H1, x1, x2,, xk y, Fj > F(1, n - k - 1 ), H1 j, xj y, 8 6,, ( : :, ; : ; : 10 ; : 10 ) t y t x t1 : x t2 : x t3 : , n = 10, k = 3 x1 = ( )/ 10 = x2 = ( )/ 10 = x3 = ( )/ 10 = y = ( )/ 10 = ly y = ( ) ( ) 2 = l1 y = ( ) ( ) + + ( ) 282 ( ) =

291 l2 y l3 y = ( ) ( ) + + ( ) ( ) = = ( ) ( ) + + ( ) ( ) = l1 1 = ( ) ( ) 2 = l2 2 = ( ) ( ) 2 = l33 = ( ) ( ) 2 = l1 2 = l2 1 = ( ) ( ) + + ( ) ( ) = l2 3 = l3 2 = ( ) ( ) + + ( ) ( ) = l3 1 = l1 3 = ( ) ( ) + + ( ) ( ) = r1 y = r2 y = r3 y = = = = r1 y = , r2 y = r3 y = , y x 1, x2 x3 2. y t = b^0 + b^1 xt1 + b^2 xt2 + b^3 xt3 b^0, b^1, b^3, li j, ljy, ly y, 283

292 : ( cij ) = ( li j ) - 1 = = ^ b 1 l1 y ^ b 2 ^ b 3 = ( cij ) l2 y l3 y = = ^ b 0 = y - b^1 x1 - b^2 x2 - b^3 x3 = = : y t = x t xt x t3 3. ( 1) H1 : x1, x2, x3 y ( ) H1 j : x j y (), j = 1, 2, 3 ( 2) 284

293 8 17 ( ) F y t ( ) U = F = x1 ( ) p1 = F1 = x2 ( ) p2 = F2 = x3 ( ) p3 = F3 = Q = y ( ) st = st = ly y = k U = ^j b l jy = j = = Q = lyy - U = = P1 P2 = b^2 1/ c11 = / = = b^2 2/ c22 = / = P3 = b^2 3/ c33 = / = ( 3) F = > F0.05 (3, 6 ), H1, x1, x2 x3 F2 x2 = > 5.99 = F0.05 ( 1, 6), H1 2, F1 = F3 = < 5.99 = F0.05 (1, 6), H11 H1 3, x1 x3 4.,,, 285

294 ,, ( ),,,,,, 8 6, y t = xt xt xt3, (),, ( ) x2, x1 x3,, P1 = < P3 = , x1, x1 ( ) x2, : r1 2 = l11 l12 l22 = = 0.95,, x1, : y t = x t x t ,,,,, 8 18 ( ) F F0.05 yt ( ) U = F = > 4.74 x2 ( ) p2 = F2 = > 5.59 x3 ( ) p3 = F3 = > 5.59 Q = y s T =

295 ,, ( ) ( Multi-dimensional Scale), ( dimensions, ),,, ( Factor Analy sis),, ( ) 8 19 : 8 19 (1, 5 ) x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 x x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 x x

296 8, : 20 ri j = l ii li j l j j 8 20 r ij a 1 j x 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 x 7 x x x x x x x r ij i a1 j F1 F1, : x j = a1 j F1 ( j = 1, 2,, 7 ), a1 j = 7 ri j i = 1 ( j = 1, 2,, 7 ) ri j a1 j F1, 8 20 ( ): 288 : l ij, l ii, l jj ( i, j = 1, 2,, 7; t = 1, 2,, 10 ) l ij = ( x ti - x i ) ( x tj - x j ), l ii = ( x ti - x i ) 2, l j j = ( x tj - x j ) 2

297 ( x1, x2, x3, x4, x5, x6, x7 ) = ( F1 ) ( a1 j ) 1 7 = ( F1 ) (0.817, 0.152, 0.515, 0.331, 0.319, 0.397, ), F1 x1 ( ) x3 ( ), ( ), ( x2 ),, F2, F1, : : F2, ( x1, x2, x3, x4, x5, x6, x7 ) = ( F1, F2 ) ( akj ) 27, a2 j F2 ( k = 1, 2; j = 1, 2,, 7), r ij, a2 j = 7 i j i = 1 r r i j ( j = 1, 2,,7 ) ( r ij ) = ( rij ) - ( a1 j ) T ( a1 j ) ( i, j = 1, 2,, 7) : 8 20, ( a2 j ) = (0.097, 0.675, 0.609, , 0.605, , ) ( x1, x2, x3, x4, x5, x6, x7 ) = ( F1, F2 ) ( akj ) 27, ( a 1 j ) T ( a 1 j ) 17, 7 1 ( r ij ), ( r ij ),,, 1990,

298 = ( F1, F2 ) , F2 F1 x2 ( ) x4 ( ) x5 () x6 ()x7 ( ), 0.5, F1 F2 : (1 ) a14, a1 5, a16, a1 7, a2 2, a23, a2 5, a26, ; ( 2 ) F1 F2 x3 ( a13 = 0.515, a2 3 = ),,, ( F1, F2 ), ( x1, x2, x3, x4, x5, x6, x7 )( ), F1 F2,, : = 37 38, ( x1, x2, x3, x4, x5, x6, x7 ) ( F * 1, F * 2 )(): ( x1, x2, x3, x4, x5, x6, x7 ) = ( F * 1, F * 2 ) * * * * * * * F * 1 F * 2 x1, x2, x3, x4, x5, x6, x7, : F * 1 x1 ( ), x2 ( ), x3 ( ), x5 ( ), F * 2 x4 ( ), x6 ( ), x7 ( ) ( 8 21 ), 290 ( F 1, F 2 ) F 1 F 2 2, ( x 1, x 2, x 3, x 4, x 5, x 6, x 7 ) 7, ( a kj ),, 1990,

299 : F * 1, F * 2,,, 8 21 F * 1 : F * 2 : x 1 x 2 x 3 x 5 x 4 x 6 x ?? , 3.? 4.?? , A B 6.? 7.? , 9.? 10.? 11.?? 291

300 12. ( ),? () ( % ) :,, 2000( 8 ), 2124

301 ,, ( ), :,, ;,, ( Time Series Analysis ),, 293

302 ,,,,, ( ) ( Moving Average), xt, xt- 1, xt - 2,, xt - m+ 1,, t = m =,,, x^ t + 1 x^ t+ 1 = 1 m x t- i+ 1 m i = 1 = t + 1,, m, m : 1., m ( 9 1a) 2., m ( 9 1b) 294

303 9 1a 9 1b 9 1a 12 ( xt ) 9 1 : ( :) t xt ( 9 2 ), m, m = t x t x^ t x^ t+ 1 = x t- i+ 1 i = 1 ( x^ t + 1 ) : x^ t+ 1,, 295