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1 * Merton 1968 explanation interpretation Bendix 1956 * 1

2 Moore 1966 Skocpol 1979 Kiser & Hechter 1991 Elster 1999 Hedstrom 2005 Gross Hume 2005 / /

3 contiguity succession necessary connection Hume 2005 / constant conjunction Beauchamp & Rosenberg 1981 Hume 1999 / connection conjoined Hume 1999 / Hume 1999 / Hume 1999 / Hume 3

4 / Hume 1999 / Hume 2005 / Russell 1903 Pearson

5 Kant 1998 / 1781 A B Hume 2005 / A B A B A B A B A B P B A > P B A' A B A B P B A = 1 P B A' = 0 5

6 John Stuart Mill 19 Mill 2002 /1848 A B A B A B A A B Mill 2002 / Mill 2002 / Skocpol & Somers

7 1 1 A B 90% 7

8 HIV 8

9 Fisher 1935 blocks A B X Y 100 Fisher 1935 Holland 1986 Sobel Winship & Sobel

10 = + GLM Y = ^Y + ε ^Y = g -1 Xβ LM ^Y = Xβ = + Blalock

11 R R spurious effects Peng / lny ij = β 0 + β 1 E ij + β 2 A ij + β 3 F ij + γx ij + ε ij E ij i j = 1 2 A F X ε / 11

12 lny i1 - lny i2 = β 1 E i1 - E i2 + γ X i1 - X i2 + ε i1 - ε i2 8% 10% Miller et al Bonjour et al Z Z Y X

13 endogeneity Blalock 1980 Rosenbaum 1984 Sobel 1995 Pearl Mill 2002 / Skocpol

14 Lee Kogut & Zander

15 SARS Time Asia

16 Abbott 1995 narrative Denzin & Lincoln 2000 sequence of events 2000 Griffin

17 19 Zeitlin 1988 Hume 2005 / Abbott 2001 Denzin & Lincoln 2000 Abell 1993 Ragin

18 Abbott 2001 Ragin 1987 Geertz

19 2007 A B A B causal realism 19

20 Hume 1999 / E = MC 2 Woodward 2002 Pearl 2000 Einstein & Infeld 1938 Hedstrom & Ylikoski 2010 Gross 2009 Hedstrom 2005 Kiser & Hechter 1991 Elster

21 Gross Hedstrom 2005 Bourdieu 1984 / Y M Y = M 3 /4 H H = M - 1 /4 3 /4 West & Brown 2005 HIV HIV 21

22 Merton 1968 Hedstrom 2005 Hedstrom & Swedberg 1996 Merton 1948 Coleman et al Granovetter 1978 ⑴ ⑵ 22

23 Popper 1959 Popper Merton 1968 T A B T A B A B A B A B T A B T corroborated 2 23

24 T A B T Blau & Duncan 1967 Bourdieu 1984 /

25 Peng 2004 Peng 2010 Tsai 2007 Peng Peng 2010 Tsai

26 King et al Uzzi 1999 Tsai 2007 triangulation

29 Popper

30 http / /www. unirule. org. cn /Secondweb /DWContent. asp DWID = 307 Abbott Andrew 1995 Sequence Analysis New Methods for Old Ideas. Annual Review of Sociology Time Matters On Theory and Method. Chicago University of Chicago Press. Abell Peter 1993 Some Aspect of Narrative Method. Journal of Mathematical Sociology Beauchamp Tom & Alexander Rosenberg 1981 Hume and the Problem of Causation. Oxford Oxford University Press. Bendix Reinhard 1956 Work and Authority in Industry Ideologies of Management in the Course of Industrialization. Berkeley University of California Press. Blalock Hubert 1980 Causal Inference in Nonexperimental Research. New York WW Norton & Company. Blau Peter M. & Dudley O. Duncan 1967 The American Occupational Structure. New York Free Press. Bonjour Dorothe Lynn F. Cherkas Jonathan E. Haskel Denise D. Hawkes & D. Tim 2003 Returns to Education Evidence from U. K. Twins. The American Economic Review Bourdieu Pierre 1984 /1979 Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgment of Taste trans. by Richard Nice. Cambridge Harvard University Press. Coase Ronald 1937 The Nature of the Firm. Economica The Problem of Social Cost. Journal of Law and Economics 3. Coleman James S. E. Katz & H. Menzel 1957 The Diffusion of an Innovation Among Physicians. Sociometry 20. Denzin Norman K. & Yvonna S. Lincoln eds Handbook of Qualitative Research. Thousand Oaks Sage Publications. Einstein Albert & Leopold Infeld 1938 The Evolution of Physics. New York Simon & Schuster Inc. Elster Jon 1999 Alchemies of the Mind Rationality and the Emotions. Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press. Fisher Ronald A The Design of Experiments. Edinburgh Oliver and Boyd. Geertz Clifford 1973 The Interpretation of Cultures. New York Basic Books. Griffin Larry 1993 Narrative Event-Structure Analysis and Causal Interpretation in Historical Sociology. American Journal of Sociology Granovetter Mark 1978 Threshold Models of Collective Behavior. American Journal of 30

31 Sociology The Social Construction of Corruption. In Victor Nee & Richard Swedberg ed. On Capitalism. California Stanford University Press. Gross Neil 2009 A Pragmatist Theory of Social Mechanisms. American Sociological Review 74. Hedstrom Peter 2005 Dissecting the Social On the Principles of Analytical Sociology. Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press. Hedstrom Peter & Petri Ylikoski 2010 Mechanisms in Social Sciences. Annual Review of Sociology 36. Hedstrom Peter & Richard Swedberg 1996 Social Mechanims. Acta Sociologica Holland Paul 1986 Statistics and Causal Inference. Journal of American Statistical Association Hume David 2005 /1739 A Treatise of Human Nature. New York Barnes and Noble /1748 An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding. Oxford UK Oxford University Press. Kant Immanuel 1998 /1781 Critique of Pure Reason. Cambridge Cambridge University Press. King Gary Robert O. Keohane & Sidney Verba 1994 Designing Social Inquiry Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research. New Jersey Princeton University Press. Kiser Edgar & Michael Hechter 1991 The Role of General Theory in Comparative-Historical Sociology. American Journal of Sociology 97. Kogut Bruce & Udo Zander 2000 Did Socialism Fail to Innovate A Natural Experiment of the Two Zeiss Companies. American Sociological Review 65. Kuhn Thomas 1970 The Structure of Scientific Revolution 2 nd ed. Chicago University of Chicago Press. Lee Ching Kwan 1995 Engendering the Worlds of Labor Women Workers Labor Markets and Production Politics in the South China Economic Miracle. American Sociological Review 60. Merton Robert 1948 The Self-fulfilling Prophecy. The Antioch Review On Sociological Theories of the Middle Range. In R. Merton Social Theory and Social Structure. New York The Free Press. Mill John Stuart 2002 /1848 System of Logic Ratiocinative and Inductive. Honolulu Hawaii University Press of the Pacific. Miller Paul Charles Mulvey & Nick Martin 1995 What Do Twins Studies Reveal About the Economic Returns to Education A Comparison of Australian and U. S. Findings. The American Economic Review Moore Barrington 1966 Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy. Boston MA. Beacon Press. Pearl Judea 2000 Causality Models Reasoning and Inference. London Cambridge University Press Causal Inference in Statistics An Overview. Statistical Surveys 3. Pearson Karl 1900 The Grammer of Science 2nd Edition. London Adam and Charles Black. 31

32 Peng Yusheng 2004 Kinship Networks and Entrepreneurs in China s Transitional Economy. American Journal of Sociology When Formal Laws and Informal Norms Collide Lineage Networks Versus Birth Control Policy in China. American Journal of Sociolog Popper Karl R The Logic of Scientific Discovery. London Routledge Conjectures and Refutations. London Routledge. Ragin Charles 1987 The Comparative Method Moving beyond Qualitative and Quantitative Strategies. Berkeley University of California Press. Rosenbaum Paul R From Association to Causation in Observational Studies The Role of Tests of Strongly Ignorable Treatment Assignment. Journal of the American Statistical Association Russell Bertrand 1903 Principles of Mathematics. London Routledge. Skocpol Theda 1979 States and Social Revolutions A Comparative Analysis of France Russia and China. London Cambridge University Press. Skocpol Theda & Margaret Somers 1980 The Uses of Comparative History in Macrosocial Inquiry. Journal of Comparative History and Society Sobel Michael 1995 Causal Inference in the Social and Behavioral Sciences. In Handbook of Statistical Modeling for the Social and Behavioral Sciences eds. by G. Arminger C. C. Clogg and M. E. Sobel. New York Plenum Press An Introduction to Causal Inference. Sociological Methods and Research Tsai Lee Lily 2007 Solidary Groups Informal Accountability and Local Public Goods Provision in Rural China. American Political Science Review Time Asia 2000 Taking on the System. Time Asia. October 9 Vol. 156 No. 14. Uzzi Brian 1999 Embeddedness in the Making of Financial Capital How Social Relations and Networks Benefit Firm Seeking Financing. American Sociological Review 64. West Geoffrey & James Brown 2005 The Origin of Allometric Scaling Laws in Biology from Genomes to Ecosystems Towards a Quantitative Unifying Theory of Biological Structure and Organization. The Journal of Experimental Biology 208. Winship Christopher & Michael Sobel 2004 Causal Inference in Sociological Studies. In Handbook of Data Analysis eds. by M. Hardy & A. Bryman. London Sage Publications. Woodward Jim 2002 What is a Mechanism A Counterfactual Account. Philosophy of Science 69. Zeitlin Maurice 1988 The Civil Wars in Chile or The Bourgeois Revolution That Never Were. New Jersey Princeton University Press. Zhou Xueguang 2005 The Institutional Logic of Occupational Prestige Ranking Reconceptualization and Reanalyses. American Journal of Sociology

33 SOCIOLOGICAL STUDIES Bimonthly Vol May 2011 PAPER Causal Analyses in Social Sciences Peng Yusheng 1 Abstract Hume s problem of causal induction has inspired more than two centuries of epistemological discussion. J. S. Mill was the first one to elaborate the methodological principles of causal induction. The Millian principle of overall similarities for causal inference laid the foundation for Fisher s randomized experimental design and guided causal analyses in multivariate statistical modeling and qualitative comparative case studies. Causal theories are not however induced from empirical correlations. They are produced through leaps of faith and empirically tested through deductive logic. The best research strategy is triangulation that combines theorizing qualitative analysis and statistical modeling. On the Misusage and Adjustment of Household Members Matched Data A discussion with the paper Expansion of Higher Education and Inequality in Opportunity of Education Yang Ge & Wang Guangzhou 33 Abstract The data of household members matched are widely used in sociology demography and related research but the selection bias of the matched data is often ignored. This paper uses the raw data of the Fifth Census in 2000 and 1% Population Sample Survey in 2005 to match three kinds of relations i. e. father and sons mother and children husband and wife and confirms that the selection bias exist in these matched data grouped by age gender migration status rural and urban distribution education geographical distribution and so on. Based on the matched data this paper re-tests the matched data analysis models and conclusions of the paper Expansion of Higher Education and Inequality in Opportunity of Education and finds out that the selection bias of matched data would influence the accuracy of model a- nalysis and research conclusion. For further reducing the impact of matched data bias we propose two adjustment methods and find out that re-sampling and weighting methods can reduce the selective bias. Selection Bias and Treatment Methods A response to the questions 243

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