1 Joseph S. Nye Solomon W. Polachek Conflict and Trade The Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol. 24 No pp Richard N. Rosecrance T

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2 1 Joseph S. Nye Solomon W. Polachek Conflict and Trade The Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol. 24 No pp Richard N. Rosecrance The Rise of the Trading State Commerce and Conquest in the Modern World New York Basic Books 1986 John R. Oneal and Bruce N. Russett The Kantian Peace The Pacific Benefits of Democracy Interdependence and International Organizations World Politics Vol. 52 No pp Erik Gartzke Quan Li and Charles Boehmer Investing in the Peace Economic Interdependence and International Conflict International Organization Vol. 55 No pp Katherine Barbieri Economic Interdependence A Path to Peace or a Source of Interstate Conflict Journal of Peace Research Vol. 33 No pp Barry Buzan Economic Structure and International Security The Limits of the Liberal Case International Organization Vol. 38 No pp Norrin M. Ripsman and Jean - Marc F. Blanchard Commercial Liberalism under Fire Evidence from 1914 and 1936 Security Studies Vol. 6 No /1997 pp Kenneth S. Waltz The Myth of National Interdependence in C. P. Kindleberger ed. The Multinational Corporation Cambridge MIT Press David A. Baldwin Power Analysis and World Politics New Trends versus Old Tendencies World Politics Vol. 31 No p Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye Power and Interdependence New York Harper Collins Publishers 1989 p Joseph S. Pearson Longman 2007 p Nye Understanding International Conflicts An Introduction to Theory and History New York

3 Robert O. Keohane 1 Mark J. C. Crescenzi 2 net cost Mark J. C. Crescenzi Economic Exit Interdependence and Conflict The Journal of Politics Vol. 65 No pp

4 R. Harrison Wagner R. Harrison Wagner Economic Interdependence Bargaining Power and Political Influence International Organization Vol. 42 No pp David A. Baldwin Economic Statecraft New Jersey Princeton University Press 1985 pp

5 Richard N. Haass ed. Economic Sanctions and American Diplomacy New York Council on Foreign Relations Press 1998 p Risa A. Brooks Sanctions and Regime Type What Works and When Security Studies Vol. 11 No pp

6 1 2 1 Richard N. Haass ed. Economic Sanctions and American Diplomacy p

7 Paul Krugman 1 2 / 1 2 Paul Krugman What s New about the New Economic Geography Oxford Review of Economic Policy Vol. 14 No pp

8 1 2 political geography political cleavage Stephen Whitefield Political Cleavages and Post - Communist Politics Annual Review of Political Science Vol pp Seymour M. Lipset and Stein Rokkan Cleavage Structures Party Systems and Voter Alignments An Introduction in Seymour M. Lipset and Stein Rokkan J Fiona McGillivray Privileging Industry The Comparative Politics of Trade and Industrial Policy Princeton Princeton University Press 2004 pp Peter Trubowitz Defining the National Interest Conflict and Change in American Foreign Policy Chicago University of Chicago Press Kevin R. Cox Murray Low and Jennifer Robinson eds. The Sage Handbook of Political Geography London Sage Publications Ltd pp eds. Party Systems and Voter Alignments New York The Free Press 1967

9 core voter p John A. Agnew Place and Politics in Modern Italy Chicago The University of Chicago Press Nicole Mellow and Peter Trubowitz Red versus Blue American Electoral Geography and Congressional Bipartisanship Political Geography Vol. 24 No pp Charles E. Cook The Equilibrium Election The Washington Quarterly Vol. 25 No pp Maxim Ryabkov The North - South Cleavage and Political Support in Kyrgyzstan Central Asian Survey Vol. 27 No pp

10 1 2 3 swing voter Ron Shachar Party Loyalty as Habit Formation Journal of Applied Econometrics Vol pp Kevin Denny and Orla Doyle Does Voting History Matter Analysing Persistence in Turnout American Journal of Political Science Vol. 53 No pp William G. Jacoby The American Voter in Jan Leighley ed. The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior Oxford Oxford University Press 2010 pp Michael Lewis - Beck William Jacoby Helmut Norpoth and Herbert Weisberg The American Voter Revisited Ann Arbor The University of Michigan Press 2008 pp G. William G Mayer William G. Mayer The Swing Voter in American Politics Washington D. C. The Brookings Institution 2008 pp

12 A B C D A B 1 A B C > D C < D 142

13 Peter Trubowitz Political Conflict and Foreign Policy in the United States A Geographical Interpretation in G. John Ikenberry ed. American Foreign Policy Theoretical Issues New York Harper Collins 1996 pp

14 % 33% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % IMF Ukraine Statistical Appendix State Statistic Committee of Ukraine Ukraine s Foreign Trade in Goods Monthly Information Ukraine s Foreign Trade in Goods with EU Countries United Nations Statistics Division UNcomtrade

15 GDP 65% 1 50% % 66% 90% 38% 36% % 47% Hrant Bagratian and Emine Gtirgen Payments Arrears in the Gas and Electric Power Sectors of the Russian Federation and Ukraine IMF Working Paper http / /www. imf. org /external /pubs /ft /wp /wp pdf. 2 IMF Ukraine Statistical Appendix February 2007 p Nataliya Blyakha Russian Foreign Direct Investment in Ukraine Electronic Publications of Pan - European Institute No p

16 % 1 Stephen Shulman Asymmetrical International Integration and Ukrainian National Disunity Political Geography Vol. 18 No pp Stephen Shulman Asymmetrical International Integration and Ukrainian National Disunity pp

17 % Paul Kubicek Regional Polarization in Ukraine Public Opinion Voting and Legislative Behavior Europr - asia Studies Vol. 52 No p Janusz Bugajski Ethnic Relations and Regional Problems in Independent Ukraine in Sharon L. Wolchik and Volodymyr Zviglyanich eds. Ukraine The Search for a National Identity Lanham Rowman & Littlefield 2000 pp

18 Viktor Fedorovych Yanukovich Viktor Yushchenko / Sarah Birch Interpreting the Regional Effect in Ukrainian Politics Europe - Asia Studies Vol. 52 No pp Gazprom Naftogaz 148

19 / / 201 / 418 / % / NATO Membership Action Plan Yulia Timoshenko Peter Rutland Russia as an Energy Superpower New Political Economy Vol. 13 No p. 2 Simon Pirani Jonathan Stern and Katja Yafimava The Russo - Ukrainian Gas Dispute of January 2009 A Comprehensive Assessment Working Paper Oxford Institute for Energy Studies February 2009 p Jeffrey Simon Ukraine Needs to Decide Its Strategic Alignment Southeast European and Black Sea Studies Vol. 9 No pp

20 % 7 89% 10 76% 6. 2% 4. 2% Ralph S. Clem and Peter R. Craumer Shades of Orange The Electoral Geography of Ukraine s 2004 Presidential Elections Eurasian Geography and Economics Vol. 46 No pp Ivan Katchanovski Regional Political Divisions in Ukraine in Nationalities Papers Vol. 34 No p

21 % Central Election Commission of Ukraine http / /www. cvk. gov. ua /pls /vp2010 /WP313 PT001F01 =

22 William Brustein Mapping Politics How Mode of Production Counts in Electoral Geography Political Geography Vol. 15 No pp Anders Aslund How Ukraine Became a Market Economy and Democracy Washington D. C. Peterson Institute for International Economics 2009 p Ivan Katchanovski Regional Political Divisions in Ukraine in Nationalities Papers Vol. 34 No pp F. Stephen Larrabee Russia Ukraine and Central Europe The Return of Geopolitics Journal of International Affairs Vol. 63 No p

23 / % % % % % % % % 2004 http / / www. cvk. gov. ua /pls /vp2004 /WP313 PT001F01 = http / / www. cvk. gov. ua /pls /vp2010 /WP313 PT001F01 =

25 World Economics and Politics No contrast the U. S. economic pattern mainly relied on domestic market which had relatively less impact on Britain and facilitated a peaceful power transition between the U. S. and Britain. Based on a trans - historical and trans - regional comparison the author demonstrates that different economic development patterns have different international political consequences and peaceful development needs domestic foundation. Therefore expanding domestic market is critical for great powers to achieve peaceful economic development. Key Words economic development pattern of great powers international political consequence power transition Author Huang Qixuan Assistant Professor School of International and Public Affairs Shanghai Jiaotong University China. Economic Geography Political Bloc and the Power in Asymmetrical Economic Interdependence Song Guoyou Gao Qunbo 131 Abstract There s an interesting puzzle in the international relations that asymmetric economic interdependence doesn t bring effective power. The less dependent actor which is predominant in an interdependent dyad couldn t transform its economic influence into political influence by using economic means and thus fails to excise its power over the more dependent actor. Based on existing literature the author constructs a new explanatory model by utilizing economic geography and political bloc and argues that whether economic geography can match with the political bloc is crucial to the power from asymmetric economic interdependence. The case study of Russia taking advantage of its predominant position to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO bolsters core viewpoint presented by this article. Key Words economic geography political bloc asymmetrical interdependence power Authors Song Guoyou Associate Professor in Center for American Studies at Fudan University Gao Qunbo Master Candidate at the School of International Relations and Public Affairs at Fudan University. 160

西方三大霸权的战略比较——兼论美国制度霸权的启示意义•

西方三大霸权的战略比较——兼论美国制度霸权的启示意义• - 1 Pax Americana Pax Romana Pax Britannica 2 3 20 60 4 1 1998 4 2 Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power, New York: Basic Books, 1990, p.50. 3 Immanuel Wallerstein, Three