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1 CJS 33 CGSS2006 陈云松 : CGSS2006,,, (ICT),,, : DoesInternet Use Encourage Non-Institutional Political Participation AnInstrumentalVariableAnalysisofthe Datafrom CGSS2006 CHEN Yunsong Abstract:TheInternethasbeenplayingamoreandmoreimportantroleinthe governance.basedonthedatafromthe2006 ChineseGeneralSocialSurvey (CGSS),thisstudyexaminedtherelationshipsbetweenInternetuseandnon- * : (Author:CHEN Yunsong, Departmentof Sociology, SchoolofSocialandBehavioralSciences,NanjingUniversity ) yunsong2000@ gmail.com ** (13CSH020) [Thisstudyissupported bythe NationalSocialScience FoundationofChina,andapartoftheprojectof TheCitizenParticipationof MiddleClas fromtheperspectiveofsocialmobility ( 13CSH020).], 118

2 institutionalpolitical participation,such as colective petitions,unauthorized protests,andunlawfulasemblies.giventhatthecause-effectrelationshipsbetween Internetuseandnon-institutionalpoliticalparticipation maybebidirectional,this studyusedtheindividualpropensityforictproductsastheinstrumentalvariable (IV)tocorectforthepotentialsimultaneityproblem andothersourcesofthe endogeneityproblem,inadditiontocontrolingforaconstelationofindividual demographic atributes, socioeconomic and psychological characteristics, and experiencesofpoliticalparticipation.consideringofthepopularizationof mobile phonesin2000inchina,thisstudyoperationalizedtheivasnotowning mobile phonesbefore2000whilecontrolingfortherespondents incomearound2000.the traditionalprobitestimatesfortheeffectofdailyuseofinternetwerenegativeand insignificant,whereastheiv-probitestimateswerepositiveandsignificantat.05 ahplalevel.accordingtotheresultofwaldtestandtestforweakiv,theconsistent estimatesofiv-probitwereadopted.thefindingssuggestthatdailyinternetusedid encourage non-institutional political participation. The opposite signs of the traditionalprobit estimates and IV-Probit estimates might as welsuggest an inhibitorymutualrelationship betweenthetwovariables.thismayimplythat expandingthechannelforinterestexpresioncanbeoneofimportantmethodsto reducesocialconflicts. Keywords:instrumentalvariable,endogeneity, simultaneity, internetuse,non- institutionalpoliticalparticipation,causalanalysis :,,,, (Bimber,2000;Diani,2000;DelaPortaand Mosca,2005;Kenski and Stroud,2006;Wang, 2007;Fisher and Boekkoi,2010;Bennet,Breunig and Givens,2008;Garret,2006; Marmura,2008;Earland Kimport,2008;,2009;Yang, 2003a, 2003b;Zheng, 2007;,2009;,2011), 119

3 2013 5, (Ayres, 1999;Andrewsand Biggs,2006;Tai,2006;Kerbeland Bloom,2005; Touboul,2005;Rogan,2006;VanLaerandVanAelst,2010;,2010) 1 (,1989),,,, , 5.64, , 3 / , , (,2004;,2008), (,2010), :,, 1., ( ) (,1996) 2.,,, (2009),,,, (2010) (2011) 3. : (CNNIC) :,2007, (htp :// media. people.com.cn/gb/22114/52789/115416/ html), ;,2011, (htp :// yuqing.people.com.cn/gb/ html),

4 ,,,,,,, 5,,,,,, :,6 (2008),,, (Sabucede andarce,1991) Within-System Out-of-System, Institutional Non- Institutional (Kaase,1999;Segal,2005) (2010),, (2008), 5., (2011) CNKI,,, 6. : (2006), (2007) 121

5 ;, (2009), ;, (2007), ;, (2009), ; (2011) ; (2012) ; (2009), ; (2010),,, (Zhengand Wu,2005),, ; (2006) ; (2008) ; (2009) ; (2010) ; (2012),, 7, 8,,9 (AndrewsandBiggs,2006) 7. (YangandCalhoun,2007) (2007) 8. (2010) 9. Brake (2005) Nip ( 2004) Diani(2003) Garret(2006), 122

6 20 60,, ;, (Nah, etal.,2006), ; (Wojcieszak,2009), ; (Harlow,2011), 2009 (Facebook),, ; (HarlowandHarp, 2012), ; (SchumannandLuong, 2011) 2011,, 10 (2009) 15,, ; (2012) ( ) 156, ; (2011) PX,, PX ; (2011) 300, ;11 (2012) 10. ( ), [ :, (htp :// media.people.com.cn/gb/22114/ /150617/ html), ]; (2011), 11. :. :, (htp :// media.people.com.cn/gb/22114/150608/150619/ html),

7 2013 5,,,,, (,2012b),, (AndrewsandBiggs,2006), (OLS) (Logistic) (OrderedLogistic),,,, 12,,, 13,,,,,,,,, : 12., : (2010,2011) 13. (2011),, 124

8 , 2003, CGSS , 125 ( )500 ( )1000 ( ) 10000, KISH , 7063, 2%, 5205 (BianandLi,2012), 4888 ( 一 ) 模型设置 (Probit), : P( yi =1)= Φ(β0 +β1s i +β2x i ) (1) yi=1 i S i i,x i,, (1) : y i * * =β0 +β1s i +β2x i +εi, yi =1( y i >0) (2) * εi, y i, y i * >0, yi=1, Cov (S i,εi)=0, (IV-Probit) : y * i =β0 +β1s i +β2x i +εi, yi =1( y * i >0) (3) S i =γ0 +γ1z i +γ2x i +ξ (4),Z i,ξ, Cov(Z i,εi)=0,cov(ξ,εi)=0, Cov(Z i,s i ) 0, (4), S i S^i=γ^0+ γ^1z i+γ^2x i, (3) S i S^i, 1, (3), ( ),, 125

9 2013 5,,,,,, 1:, Probit ( 1) IV-Probit ( 3 4) ( 二 ) 因变量 : 非制度化政治参与 CGSS2006, : E22. 在现实生活中, 经常会看到一些群体性的活动或行动, 比如, 联合抵制不合理收费串联起来反对征地或拆迁集体参加环保活动集体签名集体谈判集体诉讼集体请愿集体上访集体罢工集会游行示威, 等等请问, 在过去五年中, 您身边是否发生过这样的事情?( 备选答案为是和否 ) E23. 在这些活动或行动中, 您是否担任过以下角色? ( 备选答案分别为组织者普通参与者支持者其他形式的参与从未参与和其他 ) E24. 您是否参加过这些活动或行动的酝酿过程 ( 比如开会讨论联络等 )( 备选答案为是和否 ) E25. 您是否为这些活动或行动提供过物质方面的支持 ( 包括钱和物 )( 备选答案为是和否 ) 126

10 E26. 您是否通过签名口头声援等方式对这些活动或行动表示过道义上的支持?( 备选答案为是和否 ),,,, yi= 1,, yi=0 4888, 199, 4%( 1),, ( 三 ) 自变量 : 互联网的日常使用 CGSS2006, : E38. 您在闲暇时间, 从事下列活动的频率是怎样的?,,, 0-6,, ,, 15,, 1, 2.25, 2.26, ( 四 ) 控制变量 : 人口学经济社会和心理行为特征, 14.,,, 15. (2011), 127

11 : 1: (N=4888) (N=199) (N=4689) ( ) (ln) (ln) (%) (%) / /

12 (N=199) (N=4689) ( ) 注 : 变量婚姻中的已婚单身包括离婚丧偶和分居等 1. 1, 199, (42 ),, ( ) 89%,, 10, ,,,,,

13 ( ) CGSS2006 0, 1,, 0 8,,,,,,, ( 五 ) 工具变量 : 对 ICT 产品的偏好, ICT,, : 1., ICT ICT,, (RiceandKatz,2003; Hyv nenandrepo,2005;vanbiljonandkotzé,2008;sourbati,2009; Gutiérrezaand Gamboaa,2010;Giray, etal.,2009) 16, ICT, ICT, (Levineand Donitsa-Schmidt, 1998;Verdegema and Verhoestb,2009;Donat,Brandtweiner and 16., 130

14 Kerschbaum,2009),, ICT 17,,,, 20 CD,,, IPhone IPad, ICT ICT, 2. ICT,,,, 3., ICT 2000 ( ) ( / ), , ( ), ICT,,2000, 2000,, %, 60% 18,2000, 17. Bundle 70, Mac PC ( :htp :// html), Mac Windows, 30%( :htp :// online. wsj.com/article/sb html) 18. :, (htp :// tech.sina.com. cn/it/t/50629.shtml),

15 2013 5, 7110, , , 189, ,, 2000 ICT,,, ICT, 2000,,, 2000 ICT, 2005 :, ;, 2005,,, ( ), 2000,,, 2000,,,, 2000,, 19. : (htp :// baike.baidu.com/view/9420.htm) 132

16 ,,, ,,IV-Probit Probit,IV-Probit,IV-Probit IV-Probit, Probit,, 20, :,, 2000 ( ) 2 Probit IV- Probit,,,, 21 IV-Probit ( 一 ) 单方程概率比模型 (Probit) 的分析结论 2,Probit,,, Probit, OLS ( 20., (ICT ), ( ), 21. (HLM) 133

17 ),, :,,,,,, ;, ;, ;, 22 ( 二 ) 工具变量概率比模型 (IV-Probit) 分析结论 IV-Probit, 2 :,,, IV-Probit,,F 60, 10(StockandYogo,2005),,Probit IV-Proit,, Probit IV-Probit 2,IV-Probit Probit,, IV-Probit, 0.157, 0.05 Probit, (-0.012),,, 1, 6%( ) 22.Probit R , 20% 134

18 2: (N=4888) Probit IV-Probit ( ) 0.131(0.078) 0.036(0.090) ( ) 0.058(0.135) 0.479(0.252) 0.048(0.218) 0.389(0.295) ( ) ** (0.205) ** (0.166) ( ) * (0.104) 0.009(0.126) ( ) ** (0.186) ** (0.151) 0.069(0.189) 0.120(0.172) (0.346) (0.317) 0.184(0.208) 0.333(0.186) 0.283(0.223) 0.293(0.179) ( ) / 0.215(0.160) 0.126(0.139) 0.210(0.243) 0.197(0.207) / 0.247(0.282) 0.220(0.251) (0.312) (0.295) ( ) (0.139) (0.124) ( ) 0.004(0.081) 0.004(0.068) ( ) 0.293(0.285) 0.324(0.267) ( ) 0.234(0.251) 0.203(0.224) * (0.296) * (0.275) ** (0.252) ** (0.225) 3 ( ) 0.178(0.085) 0.082(0.103) 0.208(0.140) 0.056(0.149) YES YES (0.012) ** (0.073) (0.049) 0.010(0.007) 0.029(0.016) (0.021) (ln) 0.007(0.015) (0.013) (ln) ** (0.033) *** (0.032) *** (0.058) *** (0.076) *** (0.611) *** (0.534) F p=0.05 注 :1. 显著性水平 : *p 0.1, **p 0.05, ***p<0.01 ; 2. 数据括号内为异方差稳健和簇差异稳健标准误, 自变量括号内为参照群体 135

19 2013 5, IV-Probit,, 3 1, , 3: Probit IV-Probit ** ** ** ** 注 :1. 显著性水平 : *p 0.1, **p 0.05, ***p<0.01 ; 2. 测试模型 1: 互联网使用的操作化为浏览网页, 不包括聊天和娱乐 ; 3. 测试模型 2: 工作样本为年龄 40 岁以下的人 ; 4. 测试模型 3: 互联网使用的操作化定义为浏览网页且年龄 40 岁以下 ( 三 ) 工具变量估计量的诠释 IV-Probit, Probit, :,, IV-Probit Probit,,,,, 23. :,2011, :, (htp :// media.people.com.cn/gb/22114/150608/150619/ html),

20 , X Y ( ), OLS Probit,,,,,,,,, 24,,,,,,, (2005),,, IV-Probit Probit,, (LATE) 25,,,, ICT,,IV-Probit, 24.,,,,,,, (Wooldridge,2006), ( ), Levit(2002) Corman Mocan(2000) DiTela Schargrodsky ( 2004) Draca (2011) (2012);, (2011) 25., LATE, 137

21 2013 5,, IV-Probit,, :,,,,,,,,, 2, Probit, IV-Probit,,,,,,,,, (2012),,,, (2005),, 138

22 ,,,,,, 26,,,, 27 (2011) PX,,,,,,, 2006,, (References) [ J ]. (3): : [ J ]. ( )(2): : [ J ]. (4): a. : [ J ]. 32(4): (2012)

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Cyber Democracy PX institutionalized non - institutionalized ~ 80 1

Cyber Democracy PX institutionalized non - institutionalized ~ 80 1 2017 4 192 2017 7 Comparative Economic & Social Systems No. 4 2017 Jul. 2017 1953 D5 A 1003-3947 2017 04-0045-11 1994 Internet CNNIC 2016 12 7. 31 53. 2% 26. 4 BBS 21 17XNF019 46 2017 4 Cyber Democracy