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1 ,?,?,,,,,,,,,,,, 2008 /4 ( 16 ), Q uarterly Journal of Intenational Politics 35

2 ,,, :,??,?,,, :,,,,, ;,,,,,,,, : :, , , Andrew Kydd, Trust and M istrust in International Relations ( Princeton, N. J. : Princeton University Press, 2005), p. 6, :, , 55 61,,,,,, E. : ( ),, 2002 ; Katja W eber, H ierarchy am idst Anarchy: A Transaction Costs App roach to International Security Cooperation, International S tudies Q uarterly, Vol. 41, No. 2, 1997, pp ; : :,

3 ,,,,,,,,, ( ),,,,,,,,,,,,,, :, ( ) ;,,,,,, :, : : ( ),, 2003, O liver E. W illiam son, Calculativeness, Trust, and Econom ic O rganization, Journal of Law and Econom ics, Vol. 36, No. 1, 1993, pp :,

4 ( ),,,,,,,,,,, ( Karl Deutsch),,,,,,,,,,,,,, : :, 93 Karl Deutsch, et al., Political Comm unity and the N orth A tlantic A rea ( Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1957), pp , ;, A B, B A 38

5 ,,,,,,,,,,,, 1945 ( Peter J. Katzenstein),,,,, 121:,, ( ),, B rian Lai and Dan Reiter, Democracy, Political Sim ilarity, and International A lliances, , Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 44, No. 2, 2000, pp Christopher Hemmer and Peter J. Katzenstein, W hy is There No NATO in A sia? International O rganization, Vol. 56, No. 3, 2002, pp : ( ), 2005, 71, Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic and Amos Tversky, eds., Judgm ent under U ncertainty: Heuristics and B iases (Cambridge; New York: Cambridge University Press, 1982) 39

6 ,,,,, ; ;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( Glenn H. Snyder),, ( ) ( ),, /, Glenn H. Snyder, The Security D ilemma in A lliance Politics, W orld Politics, Vol. 36, No. 4, 1984, pp ,,,,,,?,?,,,,,, :,,, 40

7 ?,,,,,,,, (Robert Jervis), ;,,,,,, /,,, : 122:,, ( ), :, 101 Robert Jervis, Signaling and Percep tion, in Kristen Monroe, ed., Political Psychology (Mahwah, NJ: L. Erlbaum, 2002), pp :,

8 ,,,,, ( Peter M. B lau) :,,,,,,, ( Robert Axelrod),,,, (A lexander J. Field),, ( ),,,,,,,, James D. Morrow, A lliances and A symmetry: An A lternative to the Capability Aggregation Models of A lliances, Am erican Journal of Political Science, Vol. 35, No. 4, 1991, p : ( ),, 1987, 116 :, ; H. : ( ),, 2006, : : ( ), 2007, 104, J. : : ( ), 2005 :, 66 Edward J. Lawler and Shane R. Thye, B ringing Emotions into Social Exchange Theory, Annual Review of Sociology, Vol. 25, 1999, pp

9 ,,, ;,, ;,,,,, 123:,, ( ) (, ),,,,,, ( Stephen W alt),,,,, ; : ( ), 2007, Stephen M. W alt, The O rigins of A lliances ( Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 1987). Ibid., p

10 ( ), /, ;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 124:,, Stephan Haggard, Structuralism and Its Critics: Recent Progress in International Theory, in Emanuel Adler and Beverly Crawford eds., Progress in Postwar International Relations (New York: Columbia University Press, 1991), pp Robert Jervis, Understanding Beliefs, Political Psychology, Vol. 27, No. 5, 2006, pp : ( ),, 2003,, 34 Raymond Cohen, Threat Perception in International Crisis (Madison, W isconsin: The University of W isconsin Press, 1979), p

11 ,??,,, ( ),, ;,,,,,,,, ( ),, (,,, ) ;, ( ) J. Mark W eber, Deepak Malhotra and J. Keith Murnighan, Normal Acts of Irrational Trust: Motivated A ttributions and the Trust Development Process, in Barry M. Staw & Roderick M. Kramer, eds., Research in O rganizational B ehavior, Vol. 27, 2005, p. 17. D. Harrison Mcknight, Larry L. Cumm ings and Norman L. Chervany, Trust Formation in New O rganizational Relationship s, www. m isrc. umn. edu /wpaper/workingpapers/9601. pdf, p

12 , (Jonathan Mercer),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, : ( ) ( ) ( ), ( ),,, Jonathan Mercer, Reputation and International Politics ( Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 1996), p. 46. :,

13 ,,,,,,,,, :, ;,,, ;,, :,?,,,,,??, ( ),,,,, :,, James Kulik, ConfirmatoryA ttribution and the Perpetuation of SocialBeliefs, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Vol. 44, No. 6, 1983, pp ; Jennifer Crocker, Darlene Hannah, and Renee W eber, Person Memory and Causal A ttributions, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Vol. 44, No. 1, 1983, pp Jonathan Mercer, Reputation and International Politics, p. 54. :,

14 ;,,,,,,,,, ;,, ( ),,,,, :,,,,, /, ; ( ), /,,,,,,, Jonathan Mercer, Reputation and International Politics, p. 60. Ibid., p

15 ,,,,,, /, :, : ( ) :,,, ( ),,,,,,, Joop Van der Plight and J. R ichard Eiser, Actorsπand ObserversπA ttributions, Self2serving B ias and Positivity B ias, European Journal of Social Psychology, Vol. 13, 1983, pp ; Philip E. Tetlock and A riel Levi, A ttribution B ias: On the Inconclusiveness of the Cognition2Motivation Debate, Journal of Experim ental Social Psychology, Vol. 18, 1982, pp M ichael Ross and Fiore Sicoly, Egocentric B iases in Availability and A ttribution, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Vol. 37, No. 3, 1979, pp Jonathan Mercer, Reputation and International Politics, p. 63. M iles Hewstone, Causal A ttribution: From Cognitive Processes to Collective B eliefs ( Cambridge, Massachusetts: Basil B lackwell Inc., 1990), p

16 ( ),,,, ;,,,, ( Thomas F. Pettigrew),,,, ;,,,, :,,,,,,,,, M iles Hewstone, Causal A ttribution: From Cognitive Processes to Collective B eliefs, p Ibid., p Marilynn B. B rewer, The Role of Ethnocentrism in Intergroup Conflict, in Stephen Worchel and W illiam G. Austin, eds., Psychology of Intergroup Relations ( Chicago: Nelson2Hall Publishes, 1986), pp Martin G. Beaup r and U rsula Hess, In MyM ind, W e all Sm ile: A Case of In2group Favoritism, Journal of Experim ental Social Psychology, Vol. 39, 2003, pp ; Ruth Gaunt, Jacques2Philippe Leyens, and St phanie Demoulin, Intergroup Relations and the A ttribution of Emotions: Control overmemory for Secondary EmotionsA ssociated with the Ingroup and Outgroup, Journal of Experim ental Social Psychology, Vol. 38, 2002, pp Thomas Pettigrew, The U ltimate A ttribution Error: Extending A llportπs Cognitive Analysis of Prejudice, Personality and Social Psychology B ulletin, Vol. 5, No. 4, 1979, pp

17 ,,, ( 21),?,,? 21 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) : M iles Hewstone, Causal A ttribution: From Cognitive Processes to Collective B eliefs, p. 174.,,,,,,,,, :,, Rupert B rown, Social Identity Theory: Past Achievements, Current Problem s and Future Challenges, European Journal of Social Psychology, Vol. 30, No. 6, 2000, pp Leonie Huddy, Group Identity and Political Cohesion, in David O. Sears, Leonie Huddy and Robert Jervis, eds., O xford Handbook of Political Psychology (New York: Oxford University Press, 2003), pp

18 ,,,,,, (Muzafer Sherif),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, /,,, J. Turner, Social Comparison, Sim ilarity and Ingroup Favouritism, in Henri Tajfel, ed., D ifferentiation between Social Groups: S tudies in the Social Psychology of Intergroup Relations ( New York: Academ ic Press, 1978), pp M ichael A. Hogg and Dom inic Abram s, Social Identifications: A Social Psychology of Intergroup Relations and Group Process (London and New York: Rutledge, 1988), pp ,,,, ; Leonie Huddy, Group Identity and Political Cohesion, pp ; John Duckitt, Prejudice and Intergroup Hostility, in David O. Sears, Leonie Huddy and Robert Jervis, eds., O xford Handbook of Political Psychology, pp

19 ?,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :, (, ),, ;,,,,! 221:, ( ), 222:, ( ),,,,,,,,, Thomas Kessler and Susan Hollbach, Group2based Emotions as Determ inants of Ingroup Identification, Journal of Experim ental Social Psychology, Vol. 41, 2005, pp

20 ,,,,,, /,,, ;, 223:, ( ), 224:, ( ),,,,,, ( ), :,,, :,,,,,,,,, ( ),, 1959,

21 ,, ;,,,,,,, ,,,,,, ,, :,, ; ; 1 /3 ;, ,,,, ,,,,, : : ( ), : ( ), 1983, : , ; ; , ;,, ,,, : ( ),, 1993, 33 : ( ) ( ), 1990,

22 1947,,,,, 5 20,,,,,, ,,,,,,,, 1955,, 1945,, 1947,,, 1947,, ( 21),,, ;,,,, : : ( ),, 1987, 31, 33 M ichael Creswell, W ith a L ittle Help from our Friends : How France Secured an Anglo2American Continental Comm itment, , Cold W ar H istory, Vol. 3, No. 1, 2002, p. 1. M ichael Creswell, W ith a L ittle Help from our Friends, p. 4. W. F. G. P. : ( ),, 1989,

23 21 ( 1947 ) : % : John English, W ho Could A sk for Anything More? North American Perspectives on NATOπs O rigins, in Gustav Schm idt, ed., A H istory of NA TO: The First F ifty Years, Vol. 2 (London: Palgrave, 2001), p (M ichael Creswell) (Marc Trachtenberg) :,,, :,,,, ( ),,,,,,,, M ichael Creswell and Marc Trachtenberg, France and the German Question, , Journal of Cold W ar S tudies, Vol. 5, No. 3, 2003, p. 8. :,

24 ( Ernest Bevin),,,,, ,,,,, ;, ;,,, 1945,,,,,,,,, John English, W ho Could A sk for Anything More? North American Perspectives on NATOπs O rigins, p. 306; Geir Lundestad, Emp ire by Invitation? The United States and W estern Europe, , Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 23, No. 3, 1986, pp W. F. G. P. :, , :, Geir Lundestad, Emp ire by Invitation? The United States and W estern Europe, , p

25 ,, ,, (Robert Lovett),,,, (Robert Taft),,,,,,,, Don Cook, Forging the A lliance: NATO, (New York: A rbor House /W illiam Morrow, 1989), pp : :,,,,, ( ),, 1959, 521 :, ( ),, 1959, 50 : ( ), 147 John Baylis, B ritain, The B russels Pact and the Continent Comm itment, International Affairs, Vol. 60, No. 4, 1984, p. 627.,,,, :,

26 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( ),, 1947,, , 1946,,,, ,,, 4 26,,, 4 28,,,,, : : (1947 ) ( ), 1985, 286 : (1947), 1977, 97 : ( ), 26 60

27 ,,, ,,, , 1948, , 120,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,, :, C. : ( ) ( ),, 1991, 203 : : ( ) ( ),, 1974, : ( ), : : ,, 1993, 116 C. : ( ), 211,

28 ,, 1948,,,,,, 1948,,,,,,, ( ),,,,, /,,, C. : ( ), 261 Lawrence S. Kap lan, The United S tates and NATO: The Form ative Years (Lexington, Kentucky: The University Press of Kentucky, 1984), pp

29 ,, ,,,, ,, ,,, ,, :,,,,,,,, A rtiom A. U lunian, Soviet ColdW ar Percep tions of Turkey and Greece, , Cold W ar H istory, Vol. 3, No. 2, January 2003, pp : : ( ), : ( ) ( ), 1978, 119 : ( ), 1986, ( ),, 1959, 50 63

30 ,, ,, ( John H ickerson) (John Balfour),,,,,, :,,,,,,,, 1948, :,, ,, ,,, Don Cook, Forging the A lliance: NATO, , p :? ( ),, 1977, 7 : : ( ), :, 114 Lawrence S. Kap lan, The U nited S tates and NATO: The Form ative Years, p

31 , ,,,,, :,,,,,,, ;,,,?, : ( ) ( ), 1991, 37 : : ( ), 394 : ( ), Ronald E. Powaski, The Entangling A lliance: The U nited S tates and European Security, (London: Greenwood Press, 1994), pp

32 ,,,,,,,,???,,,,,,, ( ), : ( ) :?,, :, ;,, ;,,,, ;, ; ;,, John Baylis, The D iplom acy of Pragm atism : B ritain and the Form ation of NATO, (London: The Macm illan Press L td., 1993), p

33 ,,,,,,,,,,, ;,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Karl Deutsch, et al., Political Comm unity and the N orth A tlantic A rea, p Thomas R isse2kappen, Collective Identity in a Democratic Community: The Case of NATO, in Peter Katzenstein, ed., The Culture of N ational Security ( New York: Columbia University Press, 1996 ), p : : ( ),, 2003, 7 :?, 8 : ( ),, 1998,

34 ,,, ( ) : ( ), , ,, 4 1, 6 24,,,,, , 1948,,,,,,,,, : Christopher Hemmer and Peter J. Katzenstein, W hy is There No NATO in A sia? Collective Identity, Regionalism, and the O rigins ofmultilateralism. : :, : ( ), 2003, , M ichael D. Haydock, City under S iege: the B erlin B lockade and A irlift, (W ashington: B rasseyπs, 1999) ; Robert E. Griffin and D. M. Giangreco, A irbridge to B erlin: The B erlin Crisis of 1948, Its O rigins and Afterm ath (Novato: Presidio Press, 1988) : : ( ), 138 A lan Bullock, Ernest B evin, Foreign Secretary, (New York: Oxford University Press, 1983), p

35 ,,, 6 28,, :, 7 23,, (Lucius Clay),,,,,,,,, 4 27,,,,,,, ( 22),,,,,, , : : ( ) ( ), 142 M ichael D. Haydock, City under S iege, p C. : ( ), 308, 310,,,,, David W illiam son, Berlin: The Flash2Point of the Cold W ar, , H istory Review, No. 47, 2003, p. 4 ( ), : ( ), 1983,

36 22 ( ) : % : W. Phililp s Davison, The B erlin B lockade: A S tudy in Cold W ar Politics ( Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1958), p. 144.,,,,,,,, :,,,,,,,, : : ( ),

37 , :,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,, :,,,,, : :, ( : ) ( ),, 1986, 311 : ( ) ( ), 1973, (A lan Bullock),,,,, A lan Bullock, Ernest B evin, Foreign Secretary, , p A lan Bullock, Ernest B evin, Foreign Secretary, , pp Avi Shlaim, B ritain, the Berlin B lockade and the Cold W ar, International Affairs, Vol. 60, No. 1, 1983 /84, p

38 ( ) ( ) : ( ) ,, ( ),,,,,, :, ;,,,,,,,, :,,,,, 1950 ( ),,, Thomas A. Schwartz, The Berlin Crisis and the Cold W ar, D iplom atic H istory, Vol. 21, No. 1, 1997, p. 145.,, 72

39 ,,,,, :,, ;,,, ,,,,, 6 28,,,,,,,,,,,,, : ( ), 266 : ( ),, 1976, 201 :, , 48,,, Lawrence S. Kap lan, The U nited S tates and NATO: The Form ative Years, pp :, :, 2 3 ; A lan Bullock, Ernest B evin, Foreign Secretary, , pp ,,,, ; ; ;, :,

40 ,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1952,,, :,,,,,, :,, :,,,,, : ( ), 396, 399 : ( ),, 1989, 101 D. : : ( ) ( ),, 1978, 223 H. : ( ),, 1987, ,

41 ,,,,,,, ( ),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :,,,,,,,,,, ;,, : ( 1953 ) ( ), 1989, 259, Peter Lowe, The Settlement of the Korean W ar, in John W. Young, ed., The Foreign Policy of Churchillπs Peacetim e Adm inistration, (Leicester: Leicester University Press, 1988), p. 228.,,,, Peter G. Boyle, The Churchill Eisenhower Correspondence, (Chapel H ill and London: The University of North Carolina Press, 1990), pp

42 ,,, :,, ;,,,,,, /, ( ),,,,,,,,,,, : :, ,, 1992,

43 ,, : ; ; 1952, ; 2,,,?,,,,,,,,,,,,,?, ( Thomas R isse2kappen) ;,,,,,,,, N igel Gould2Davies, Rethinking the Role of Ideology in International Politics during the Cold W ar, Journal of Cold W ar S tudies, Vol. 1, No. 1, 1999, pp Thomas R isse2kappen, Collective Identity in a Democratic Community: The Case of NATO. Christopher Hemmer and Peter J. Katzenstein, W hy is There No NATO in A sia? Collective Identity, Regionalism, and the O rigins ofmultilateralism. 77

44 ,,??,,,,,,,,,,,,,?, /?,,,,,,,,,,,,, ;,,,, : : ( ), 2008, 40 ; Robert B. McCalla, NATOπs Persistence after the Cold W ar, International O rganization, Vol. 50, No. 3, 1996, pp ,,,,,,, 78

45 1997, (, 2001 ) : nhy04@mails. tsinghua. edu. cn , , (2006 ) : libin@mail. tsinghua. edu. cn : benyin109@163. com 1982, 1986, 1992 ( 2008 ) (2006 ) ( 2005 ) ( 2001 ) (1996 ) : yanxt@mail. tsinghua. edu. cn 2006 : hyx05 tsinghua@ gmail. com 2003, 2007 (, 2005 ) : pkusongwei@ yahoo. com. cn 2007 : zuoxiying@ gmail. com

:,,, 1900,,,,,,,,,,, 20,,,, 1978 :,, 2002, 10 12 ; :, 2001, 382, :,, 2008, 17 :,, 1999, 37 :, 1988 ; :,, 2005, 6 7, 11 12 :, 2002, 407 80

,,,,, ;,,, 2008 /4 ( 16 ), 79 102 Q uarterly Journal of Intenational Politics 79 :,,, 1900,,,,,,,,,,, 20,,,, 1978 :,, 2002, 10 12 ; :, 2001, 382, :,, 2008, 17 :,, 1999, 37 :, 1988 ; :,, 2005, 6 7, 11 12