银河证券重点报告：

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1 A 股研究报告 2018 年 11 月 20 日存在与虚无 : 有关商誉减值新规与大盘基建股没有负面影响, 维持大盘基建股买入评级中国建筑行业中国证监会公布的最新政策将引起市场对 A 股公司商誉问题的关注我们对建筑和基础设施行业的分析显示, 投资者应对商誉偏高的小型公司保持谨慎如果它们需要减值, 它们的市净率和负债率可能会大增相比之下, 我们所推荐的大盘股均有充裕的有形资产支持, 它们并不存在上述风险我们重申对中国铁建 ( 1186 HK, CH) 和中国中铁 (390 HK, CH) 的买入评级, 同时维持对中国交通建设 (1800 HK, CH) 的持有评级截至 2018 年 9 月底, 由于企业并购等原因,A 股公司的累积商誉总额已升至超过人民币 1.45 万亿元, 约占整个股市净资产总额的 3.7% 根据 11 月 16 日公布的会计监管风险提示第 8 号商誉减值, 中国证监会现在要求企业采取更严格的商誉减值准则在建筑和基础设施板块, 累计合并商誉总额超过人民币 350 亿元鉴于中国证监会的新政和企业盈利能力下降,2018/19 年的减值损失可能大于 2017 年录得的人民币 14 亿元虽然减值损失是非现金项目, 但它们降低了公司的报表利润和分红能力和减少的股东权益也可以改变估值和杠杆指标这可能削弱通过并购和金融工程发展的公司我们认为该影响将对该行业的小型公司造成不成比例的影响虽然减值损失是非现金项目, 但它们会降低公司的报表利润和分红能力, 而股东权益减少可能会改变估值和负债率从长远来看, 那些通过并购和资本操作来实现增长的公司可能会受到负面影响我们认为, 该影响将对行业的小型公司造成更明显的影响邹敏分析员 (852) kellyzou@chinastock.com.hk 张岸分析员 (852) zhangan@chinastock.com.hk 我们筛选了市值超过人民币 80 亿元的 A 股建筑相关公司我们发现, 从估值的角度来看, 如果撇除无形资产并以更严格的标准进行比较, 一些公司的市净率将会显着上升这些公司包括东方园林 ( CH) 岭南股份 ( CH) 美尚生态 ( CH) 和苏交科 ( CH) 我们重申对领先基建股中国铁建和中国中铁的买入评级在最新于 18 年 9 月公布的业绩中, 我们确实看到公司的应收账款和负债比率增加, 但这不应影响它们承担新项目以产生 2018/19 盈利的能力除了从市净率看, 从现金流和净资产收益率的角度来看, 这些公司也仍是行业中估值最吸引的股份张富绅研究部总监 (852) johnsoncheung@chinastock.com.hk

2 Figure 1: Infrastructure companies financial ratios Common shareholder Market cap Goodwill equity Net profit 2018E P/B Sept 2018 (x) Price/ Net tangible asset (x) Goodwill/ Net asset Goodwill/ Net profit Net debt/ Net tangible asset Net debt/ Ticker Company Equity SH 中国建筑 230,499 2, ,546 50, % 4% 5% 8% SH 中国交建 181,297 5, ,586 17, % 30% 68% 82% SH 中国中铁 173, ,897 17, % 5% 22% 25% SH 中国铁建 147, ,482 18, % 1% 11% 14% SH 中国电建 81,850 1,113 83,675 9, % 12% 130% 205% SH 中国中冶 69, ,499 6, % 3% 37% 45% SH 葛洲坝 33,569 1,401 41,606 5, % 27% 80% 108% SH 中国化学 32, ,560 2, % 0% -56% -60% SZ 东方园林 27,847 2,323 12,119 2, % 85% -10% -34% SH 上海建工 27, ,606 1, % 13% 20% 9% SZ 金螳螂 23, ,695 2, % 19% -7% -7% SH 中铁工业 22, ,309 1, % 0% -28% -28% SH 中铝国际 21, , % 0% 107% 127% SH 中国核建 20, ,772 1, % 1% 25% 54% SH 隧道股份 19, , % 8% 40% 26% SZ 中工国际 14, ,854 1, % 18% 24% 20% SH 四川路桥 12, ,239 1, % 0% -57% -40% SZ 铁汉生态 12, , % 120% 169% 456% SZ 浙江交科 11, , % 0% 71% 71% SH 龙元建设 11, , % 8% 70% 77% SH 中材国际 10, ,274 1, % 69% -46% -55% SH 重庆建工 9, , % 0% 23% 15% SZ 岭南股份 9,886 1,099 4, % 351% 119% 318% SZ 美晨生态 9, , % 251% 32% 40% SZ 广田集团 8, , % 185% -8% -4% SZ 宝鹰股份 8, , % 36% 55% 62% SH 江河集团 8,401 1,248 6, % 316% 16% 12% SH 杭萧钢构 8, , % 0% 9% 23% SZ 东方铁塔 8, , % 85% 8% 9% SZ 中化岩土 8, , % 161% 10% 22% SZ 蒙草生态 8, , % 66% 12% 12% SZ 苏交科 8, , % 206% 7% 18% SZ 美尚生态 7, , % 177% 58% 110% SZ 亚厦股份 7, , % 66% 21% 10% SZ 棕榈股份 7, , % 86% 94% 190% SH 安徽水利 6, , % 0% -37% -9% SZ 北方国际 6, , % 0% -64% -72% SH 航天工程 6, , % 0% 31% 70% SH 西藏天路 6, , % 0% -17% -24% SZ 名家汇 6, , % 85% -47% -75% SH 设计总院 6, , % 0% 45% 107% SZ 中钢国际 6, , % 12% 25% 29% SZ 北新路桥 6, , % 3% 0% 0% SZ 围海股份 5, , % 219% -25% -27% SZ 山东路桥 5, , % 0% -73% -99% SZ 方大 B 5, , % 0% 1% 2% SH 风语筑 5, , % 0% -36% -67% SZ 东南网架 5, , % 0% 6% 4% SH 东珠生态 5, , % 0% 13% 17% SH 精工钢构 5, , % 758% 112% 85% SH 泰豪科技 5,310 1,277 3, % 384% 78% 151% SH 华建集团 5, , % 119% -8% -17% SH 百利科技 5, , % 82% -4% -24% SH 浦东建设 5, , % 0% -10% Sources: Wind, CGIS Research; Note: Companies with high risks are highlighted in red. -5%

3 The accumulated goodwill among A-share companies increased in , when M&A was quite common. The aggregate goodwill has increased from 1% of shareholders equity in 2011 to the current 4% (even higher if we exclude banks). Total impairment losses in 2017 were RMB26.4bn (RMB17bn coming from the ChiNext Board and the SME Board). This has severely affected the reported profits of listed companies. Given the more stringent oversight recommended by the CSRC and lower corporate profitability, we believe the level of write-offs will be even greater in In the longer term, this is positive policy guidance, as it will enable investors to have a clearer perception of the fundamentals of listed companies. It will also expose companies which have grown through M&A and financial engineering. Furthermore, goodwill can also distort standard comparison ratios, giving a potentially misleading picture of financial leverage and valuations. A company with a large goodwill component on its balance sheet will generate more favorable price-to-book and debt-to-equity ratios than otherwise. We have screened companies with a market cap of RMB8bn or above in the construction sector in Figure 1. We analyzed what will happen to a listed company s numbers if it is compelled to make full goodwill impairment charges by tracking the following metrics: - Goodwill as a percentage of shareholders equity to demonstrate the quality of the balance sheet; - Goodwill as a percentage of 2018E net profit to show a company s ability to absorb potential write-offs; - The difference between the apparent price-to-book ratio and the price-to-adjusted book value ratio after eliminating goodwill and other intangibles for a better valuation comparison with a company s peers; and - The disparity between the apparent net debt-to-equity ratio and the net debt-to-net tangible asset ratio to get a truer picture of a company s financial leverage compared to its peers. In Figure 2, we show the main findings. Our top picks, CCC ( CH), CRG ( CH) and CRCC ( CH), are trading at 0.9x-1.0x PBR. Even though CCC s PBR may increase slightly, this does not materially alter its valuation. In contrast, among smaller mid-caps, some companies stand out as high risks. Beijing Orient Landscape & Environment s (002310) price-to-book ratio would be adjusted from 2.2x to x if it were to make full impairment charges to goodwill. LingNan Eco & Culture-Tourism ( CH) and Misho Ecology & Landscape ( CH) are in the same situation. Their adjusted price-to-book ratios would be x to 3.7x, significantly higher than the large SOE construction plays. Figure 2: Price to BV vs. Price to adjusted BV comparison for selected A-share construction and infrastructure stocks Price to book (x) 4.0 Price to book value Price to adjusted book value SH 中国建筑 SH 中国交建 SH 中国中铁 SH 中国铁建 SZ 东方园林 SZ 铁汉生态 SH 中材国际 SZ 岭南股份 SZ 美尚生态 SZ 苏交科 SZ 中化岩土 SH 江河集团 Sources: Wind, CGIS Research

4 Figure 3: Comparison table Ticker Mkt cap Price PT PER EPS growth PEG P/Bk EV/EBITDA Dividend yield ROE US$ m (lc) (lc) Rec E 2019E 2018E 2019E 2018E E 2019E E 2019E E 2019E E 2019E H-share infrastructure construction companies CRCC 1186 HK 21, Buy % 15.0% % 2.2% 2.5% 10.7% 11.7% 12.0% CRG 390 HK 24, Buy % 15.4% % 2.1% 2.4% 9.8% 10.8% 11.3% CCC 1800 HK 25, Hold % 13.6% % 3.3% 3.7% 11.6% 9.8% 10.2% CSCI 3311 HK 4, Hold % 19.4% % 5.5% 6.6% 17.3% 14.8% 15.9% A-share infrastructure construction China State Construction CH 33, NR NR % 12.1% % 4.5% 5.1% 16.1% 14.8% 14.6% CRCC CH 21, Buy % 15.0% % 1.8% 2.1% 10.7% 11.7% 12.0% CRG CH 24, Buy % 15.4% % 1.8% 2.1% 9.8% 10.8% 11.3% CCC CH 25, Hold % 13.6% % 1.8% 2.0% 11.6% 9.8% 10.2% Power Construction Corp CH 10, NR NR % 12.0% na na na 1.9% 2.0% 2.5% 10.1% 10.2% 10.4% MCC CH 9, NR NR % 14.0% na na na 2.1% 2.4% 2.8% 8.3% 8.2% 8.8% China Gezhouba Grou[ CH 4, NR NR % 18.3% na na na 3.9% 4.0% 4.9% 18.7% 13.8% 14.3% China Nuclear Engineering CH 2, NR NR % 13.5% na na na 0.7% na na 10.5% 10.7% 12.4% International constructon companies Daelim Industrial KS 2,722 88,100 NR NR % -18.8% % 1.3% 1.2% 8.8% 13.8% 10.2% Daewoo Engineering KS 1,792 4,855 NR NR % 10.4% % 0.3% 0.2% 11.5% 14.9% 14.2% GS Engineering KS 3,002 42,650 NR NR na -15.7% % 0.9% 0.9% -5.4% 16.5% 12.3% Hyundai Development KS ,200 NR NR % -44.8% % 8.0% 7.8% 13.7% 33.4% 16.8% Hyundai Engineering KS 5,340 54,000 NR NR na 21.1% % 1.0% 1.1% 3.1% 6.8% 7.6% Taisei Corp 1801 JP 9,664 4,855 NR NR % 6.3% % 2.6% % 17.3% 14.6% 14.2% Obayashi Corp 1802 JP 6,972 1,090 NR NR % 0.5% % % 2.8% 14.8% 12.9% 11.8% Shimizu Corp 1803 JP 6, NR NR % -3.7% % 3.0% 3.1% 13.5% 13.5% 11.8% Kajima Corp 1812 JP 7,077 1,510 NR NR % -3.2% % 3.3% 3.4% 18.0% 13.9% 12.2% Bouygues Sa EN FP 13, NR NR % 16.2% % 5.2% 5.2% 12.5% 9.8% 10.8% Vinci SA DG FP 53, NR NR % 8.2% % 3.4% 3.7% 15.4% 16.1% 16.0% Koninklijke Boskalis BOKA NA 3, NR NR % 31.4% % 3.3% 3.4% 5.1% 4.0% 5.1% Gamuda Bhd GAM MK 1, NR NR % 5.9% % 4.7% 4.8% 9.4% 8.1% 8.2% IJM Corp BHD IJM MK 1, NR NR % 5.2% % 4.0% 4.2% 5.3% 4.9% 5.0% Downer EDI DOW AU 2, NR NR % 11.0% % 4.5% 4.9% 8.5% 9.9% 10.5% Larsen & Toubro Ltd LT IN 27,728 1,417 NR NR % 14.5% % 1.3% 1.5% 12.6% 14.2% 14.3% Sources: Bloomberg, CGIS Resource; Note: based on closing prices on 19 November 2019

5 Disclaimer This research report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or used by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject China Galaxy International Securities (Hong Kong) Co., Limited ( Galaxy International Securities ) and/or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. This report (including any information attached) is issued by Galaxy International Securities, one of the subsidiaries of the China Galaxy International Financial Holdings Limited, to the institutional clients from the information sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty (expressly or implied) is made as to their accuracy, correctness and/or completeness. This report shall not be construed as an offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities of the company(ies) referred to herein. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. The recipient of this report should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own independent financial advisers prior to any investment decision. Where any part of the information, opinions or estimates contained herein reflects the personal views and opinions of the analyst who prepared this report, such views and opinions may not correspond to the published views or investment decisions of China Galaxy International Financial Holdings Limited and any of its subsidiaries ( China Galaxy International ), directors, officers, agents and employees ( the Relevant Parties ). All opinions and estimates reflect the judgment of the analyst on the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. China Galaxy International and/or the Relevant Parties hereby disclaim any of their liabilities arising from the inaccuracy, incorrectness and incompleteness of this report and its attachment/s and/or any action or omission made in reliance thereof. Accordingly, this report must be read in conjunction with this disclaimer. Disclosure of Interests China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd. (6881.HK; CH) is the direct and/or indirect holding company of the group of companies under China Galaxy International. China Galaxy International may have financial interests in relation to the subjected company(ies) the securities in respect of which are reviewed in this report, and such interests aggregate to an amount may equal to or more than 1 % of the subjected company(ies) market capitalization. One or more directors, officers and/or employees of China Galaxy International may be a director or officer of the securities of the company(ies) mentioned in this report. China Galaxy International and the Relevant Parties may, to the extent permitted by law, from time to time participate or invest in financing transactions with the securities of the company(ies) mentioned in this report, perform services for or solicit business from such company(ies), and/or have a position or holding, or other material interest, or effect transactions, in such securities or options thereon, or other investments related thereto. China Galaxy International may have served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all of the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the last 12 months, significant advice or investment services in relation to the investment concerned or a related investment or investment banking services to the company(ies) mentioned in this report. Furthermore, China Galaxy International may have received compensation for investment banking services from the company(ies) mentioned in this report within the preceding 12 months and may currently seeking investment banking mandate from the subject company(ies). 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Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the securities covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) will deal in or trade in the securities covered in this research report three business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the Hong Kong-listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong-listed companies covered in this report. Explanation on Equity Ratings BUY : share price will increase by >20% within 12 months in absolute terms SELL : share price will decrease by >20% within 12 months in absolute terms HOLD : no clear catalyst, and downgraded from BUY pending clearer signal to reinstate BUY or further downgrade to outright SELL Copyright Reserved No part of this material may be reproduced or redistributed without the prior written consent of China Galaxy International Securities (Hong Kong) Co., Limited. China Galaxy International Securities (Hong Kong) Co. Limited, CE No.AXM459 20/F, Wing On Centre, 111 Connaught Road Central, Sheung Wan, Hong Kong. General line:

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Microsoft Word - A_Daily20160229 高曉慶, Stanley Kao 陳漢輝, Freddy Chan 申萬宏源研究 ( 香港 ) 有限公司申萬宏源 A 股每日資訊 - Shenwan Hongyuan A-Share Daily Notes stanley.kao@swhyhk.com freddy.hf.chan@swhyhk.com 2016 年 2 月 29 日星期一 (852)