(Ельцин Борис Николаевич; Yel'tsin Boris Nikolaevich) 1990 1999 (Путин Владимир Владимирович; Putin Vladimir Vladimirovich) 2001 9 911 911 911 1
() () () () () 2
() () () 1999 2001 4 2001 6 7 911 () 911 3
1992 1995 1996 4
1999 2002 2001 911 (research approach) (research method) 1 1 ( 1990), p. 98 5
(state system level of analysis) 2 (strategic triangle politics approach) (Kremlin politics approach) () (actors ) ( ) 3 (bi-polar) (triangle) (multi-polar) (bourgeois democracy) (proletarian dictatorship) 4 70 5 (bilateral relationships) (strategic salience) (Lowell Dittmer) (value) (balance) ( 1-1) 2 John W. Spanier, Games Nations Play : Analyzing International Politics (New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston/Praeger, 1978), p. 19. 3 Howard H. Lentner ( 1979)pp. 66-70 4 Lowell Dittmer, The Strategic Triangle: An Elementary Game Theoretical Analysis, in Power, Strategy, and Security (Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press, 1983), p. 44. 5 William G Hyland, The Sino-Soviet Conflict: Dilemmas of the Strategic Triangle, in Richard H. Solomon ed., The China Factor: Sino- American Relations and the Global Scene (Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall, 1981), p. 138. 6
1-1 BALANCE Symmetrical Asymmetrical VALUE Positive Negative 1 3 2 4 1-1 (power ratio) (symmetry) (marginal affect) 6 (uncertainty) (unstability) 7 (transaction game) 8 (ménage à trois) (romantic triangle) (pivot) (stable marriage) 6 Lowell Dittmer, The Strategic Triangle: An Elementary Game Theoretical Analysis, in Power, Strategy, and Security (Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press, 1983), pp. 37-39. 7 Gerald Segal, The Great Power Triangle (Hong Kong: The Macmillan Press, 1982), pp. 6-7. 8 Lowell Dittmer, The Strategic Triangle: An Elementary Game Theoretical Analysis, in Power, Strategy, and Security (Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press, 1983), p. 37. 7
9 (unit veto) (Theodore Caplow) (Georg Simmel) 8 10 1-2 (Theodore Caplow) ( ) ( ) 9 Lowell Dittmer, "The Strategic Triangle: An Elementary Game Theoretical Analysis," in Power, Strategy, and Security (Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press, 1983), pp. 485-515. 10 Theodore Caplow ( 1986), pp. 3-8 8
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) () (Kremlin politics approach) (decision-making level) 11 (Kremlin Politics) 11 ( 1990), p. 278 9
12 13 14 (Андрей Козырев; Andrei Kozyrev) 1995 1996 (Евгений М. Примаков; Yevgeniy M. Primakov) 15 16 12 George W. Breslauer, Khrushchev and Brezhnev as Leaders: Building Authority in Soviet Politics (London: George Allen & Unwin, 1982); 8, 2 (Dec 2000): 39 13 John Spanier, Games Nations Play (Washington D. C.: C.Q. Press, 1987), p. 516. 14 Alexei G. Arbatov, Russia s Foreign Policy Alternatives, International Security 18, 2 (Fall 1993): 5-43. 15 Mark Galeotti, The Age of Anxiety: Security and politics in soviet and Post-Soviet Russia (New York: Longman, 1995), p. 11. 16 ( 1994), p. 12 10
() (Documents Analysis Method) 17 18 (1) (2) 19 (3) (primary sources) (secondary sources) () (Historical Method) 20 17 ( 1990), p. 51 18 ( 2000), pp. 138-140 19 ( 1987), p. 151 20 ( 1994), p. 244 11
() (Joseph S. Nye Jr.) (The Paradox of American Power: Why the World s only Superpower can t go it alone) 21 Эдуард Баталов ( ; Yeduard Batalov) Виктор Кременюк ( ; Viktor Kremenyuk) (Независимая газета; Nezavisimaya gazeta) (Россия и США: ДрузьяСоперники Партнеры; Rossiya i SHA: Druz yasopernikipartnery) 22 911 (James Carney) (Times) (Our New Best Friend) 23 21 Joseph S. Nye Jr., The Paradox of American Power: Why the World s only Superpower can t go it alone (New York: Oxford University, 2002). 22 Эдуард Баталов и Виктор Кременюк [ ; Yeduard Batalov i Viktor Kremenyuk], Россия и США: Друзья? Соперники? Партнеры? [ : ; Rossiya i SHA: Druz yasopernikipartnery] Независимая газета [ Nezavisimaya gazeta], 6 Oct 2001, p. 7. 23 James Carney, Our New Best Friend? Times (27 May 2002): 34-37. 12
James Carney 911 911 911 2002 24 (The Economist) To Russia for Love 25 (William Safire) (New York Times) (Putin s China Card) 26 911 911 爲 27 24 911 ( 2002), pp. 242-243 25 To Russia for Love, The Economist (18-24 May 2002): 11. 26 William Safire, Putin s China Card, New York Times, 18 Jun 2001, p. A29. 27 911 ( 13
Bobo Lo (Vladimir Putin and the Evolution of Russian Foreign Policy) 28 Bobo Lo 911 () (Иванов Игорь Сергеевич; Ivanov Igor Sergeyevich) (Новая Российская Дипломатия; Novaya Rossiyskaya Diplomatiya) 29 迹 10 90 2003), p. 36 28 Bobo Lo, Vladimir Putin and the Evolution of Russian Foreign Policy (Blackwell, Sep 2002). 29 Иванов Игорь Сергеевич [ ; Ivanov Igor Sergeyevich], Новая Российская Дипломатия [ ; Novaya Rossiyskaya Diplomatiya] (Москва: Олма-Пресс, 2001). 14
(Дмитрий Тренин; Dmitriy Trenin) 1.5 % 30 31 911 32 33 (The Economist) 2002 5 (Vladimir Putin s Long, Hard Haul) 34 30 Дмитрий Тренин [ ; Dmitriy Trenin], Внешнеполитические проекты для России, [ ; Vneshnepoliticheskiye proyekty dlya Rossii] Независимая газета [ Nezavisimaya gazeta], 17 Feb 2000, p. 3. 31 5 (2000): 65 32 3 (2002): 80 33 3 (Jul 2001): 25 34 Vladimir Putin s Long, Hard Haul, The Economist (18-24 May 2002): 26-28. 15
(Robert Cottrell) (The Financial Times) 35 (Christian Caryl) (Michael Meyer) Christian Caryl Michael Meyer (Newsweek) (The Bush and Putin Encore) 36 70 % (Gregory Feifer) (The Moscow Times) 37 2003 35 Robert Cottrell, Putin's Wager, The Financial Times, 21May 2002, p. 14. 36 Christian Caryl and Michael Meyer, The Bush and Putin Encore, Newsweek 139, 20 (2002): 34-35. 37 Gregory Feifer, Putin's Foreign Policy a Private Affair, The Moscow Times, 2 Apr 2002, p. 2. 16