24 3 2005 5 GEO GRA P HICAL RESEA RCH Vol124, No13 May, 2005 20 1, 2,1, 1, 1 (1., 100101 ; 2., 100875) :, 20,, :,,,,,,, : ; ; : 100020585 (2005) 0320345214,,, 20 50,, 1 111, [ 1 ],,, ( ESSP) ( IRS) ESSP,,, 2005 2, 20 : 2005202216 ; : 2005203231 : ( KZCX32SW2321) (40271115) (2004DFA07400) : (19632),,,, E2mail : geqs @igsnrr1ac1cn
346 24 (SC - IGBP), IGBP, 112, / ( ),, : (1) ; (2) ; (3) ; (4) ; (5), 2 211 (1) 20 016, 20 90 10,,, [ 2 ] (2),,, [3 ] (3),,,,, [ 4 ] 212 (1) 50,, [4 ],,, (2) 50 1978 : [5 ] [6 ] [7 ] [8 ], (3) 50 2003 12192 [9 ], 1949 114 1998 10, 20002003 828 (4), (
3 : 20 347 ) 57 %, 2003 3711 % ; 1978 6717 % 2002 4516 % [10 ] (5),,, [11 ],, [ 12 ] 3 311, 100 014015 [2 ], 2000 [13 ] 19811999 19511980,, [14 ] [2 ] 312 50,, 10 219mm, 10 (1991 2000),,, 10 2040mm, ;,, 10 60mm,,, 10 15 % [15 ] 313 (1),,,,, 1 Tab11 Social2economic scenario and its demand on resources at present and around 2020AD, respectively (2000 ) (2020 ) GDP () [16 ] 11 36 GDP( ) [16,17 ] 850 3000 () [16,17 ] 121 66 15 () [17 ] 71 8 11172 () [17 ] 01 88 (61 6 %) 116 ( > 10 %) (m 2 ) [17 ] 1013 2330 [16,17 ] 36 % 56 % [16 ] 40 % 30 % [16 ] 01 45 014 () [18,19 ] 667 1400 (2000 ) (2020 ) (10 8 t) [20 ] 4195 6 (10 8 m 3 ) [21 ] 5500 6500 [21 ] 53 % 75 % [21 ] 50 % 70 % (10 8 t) [22 ] 141 8 30 [23 ] 67 231 6 54 27 21 5 61 9 91 8 91 2 (10 6 t) [24 ] 142 250270 (10 6 t) [24 ] 1188 512351 31 (10 6 t) [24 ] 3130 91 7512194 (10 6 t) [24 ] 1123 213321 35
348 24 50, 1949, 300, 12 10 4 t 0132 10 8 t 16 10 4 t 113 10 4 t 1 10 4 t 10 10 4 t 50,,,, 10 1, 2 3, 5 [ 25 ], 20 90 3015 10 8 t, 46316 10 8 t (), ( ), 21015 10 8 t ;,1018 % [26 ] 50, 20,,,, ( POPS) 2000 2003, 830 10 4 t 1171 10 4 t [27 ], : (1) SO2 1617 %2115 %, 7818 %, ;, 9717 % 100 o E [28 ] 6316 %,,,, [29 ] (2) 20 80,,170 10 4 km 2 ;90,,270 10 4 km 2 2003 265,5414 % ; 3714 %p H 516 [ 27 ] (3),, 20 70 8090 20, 1/ 3,1/ 4,50 %,40 %,60 %70 % [30 ] (4),1500 10 4 t, 20 90,,2003 119 ; 237, 1918 % [9 ] (5) 115 10 8 t,8 %10 % ; 60 10 8 t, 5 10 8 m 2 ;50 %, 10 %
3 : 20 349 314,, 1/ 5 [ 9 ],1949 514 ; 1/ 8 ( ) 7219 %, 2917 % ;2003 28 10,21, 1 [27 ],, 1949 26, 816,,,5600 m 3,5133 10 7 hm 2 [31 ],,,, 19721999 22,, [32 ], 325 10 8 m 3,350 10 8 m 3[33 ],, 4 50,,,,, 411 41111 77 % 1978,,,, 159 4/ 5 ;,56 % ;,, 2000, 219 1952 1978, 3011 %3911 %, 28 %56 % [34 ] 1978,,,,, 2, ;,,, [ 35 ] 90,, 41112 50,20 90,,
350 24 ; [36,37 ],20 90 350 kg,51161 %,29103 % [38 ], [36 ], ( ) ; ( ) [ 36 ] 1949 38 %1978 41 %,1999 38 % ;1949 38 %1999 42 % ; 1949 24 % 1999 20 % [37 ] 41113 GDP, 30,,,,,1978, GDP GDP,, GDP GDP ;,GDP,, GDP [35 ], 316 118 1 ( ) 6 119 1 () ; 211 112 1 ( ) 212 111 1 ( ) ; 2413 211 1 [39 ] 412 50,20 80,, 2000 1952 157 667 [18 ],, 44198 % 37103 %17199 %, [ 40 ] 413 50,,, 19531964, 19641982 44 %,, [ 41 ],, [35,41 ],20 90 1949 1112 %2000 35 % ;19521999,618,20 515,100 614 [ 18 ],,1978,,,,
3 : 20 351 GDP,, GDP, [36 ] 414,, 50 : (1), 95 % 80 %70 % [42 ] 50,,,,, 50, [42 ],, [25 ] (2) 1980,,1949 119 1980,,,, [43 ],8,4,18, 413, 319 10, 9 [ 44 ] (3),, () () 1993,,, 2002 1167 10 8 t,8360 10 4 t, 34 % 415 4000, 50, [45,46 ], [ 47 ] 41511, 50, 20 80,, 19842000 850km 2 / a [48 ] 2003 25135 10 6 hm 2, 2115 10 6 hm 2[49 ],20 80 90,81 %, - [50 ]
352 24 41512,,1949 19491957,1333 10 4 hm 2, 1/ 4 [51 ], 20 50 [52 ],,19861995 2115 10 4 hm 2, 19971999 2718 10 4 hm 2[53 ],19902000, 212 %,; 19, [50 ],2000 1 %, 215 %4 % 116 10 4 km 2 367 10 4 km 2,1 10 4 km 2 90, 2713 %,2460km 2[54 ] ;2460km 2, 41513,20 70,,,,,2001 16155 %, 1159 10 8 hm 2 113 10 8 m 3,,, 1 10 6 hm 2,, 20 90, [55 ],19491980 0168PgC, 20 70, 0145PgC, 4138PgC 1998 4175PgC,, 01021 PgC a - 1[45 ] 1990 010767 PgC a - 1[46 ] 41514, 50 %60 %, 8700 10 4 hm 2, 22 %,85 % 20 90 60, 30 %50 %, [56 ] 41515,200 10 4 hm 2, 50 %20 50 4 10 4 hm 2 117 10 4 hm 2, 326, 8313 10 4 hm 2 2316 10 4 hm 2 50, 64 %,33618 10 4 hm 2[57 ] ;20 50 50 %, 30 % ;8 10 4 hm 2,
3 : 20 353,30 [ 33 ] 41516, 300 10 4 km 2 [58 ] 50,,, 50 2000 1061129 10 4 t,70 % ;, 12414 10 4 hm 2, 15m, 50m [59 ] 5 511, 2020, 2000,35,, 50 % 30 %, 15, [60 ],,, (1) 20 % ; 1,7 ;, 75 %90 %,90 %,118,23,, 20 512 21 : (1),2020 15 [16 ] ; (2),,2020 65 2000 11 1 6196 %10 %,116 [17 ] ; (3),20002020 48 %52 % [17 ] 513 (1), 20202030, 117 ;2050,212,2030 119213 [ 2 ] 2050,,, ;50 27 % 2100, 2628cm ;,,,, [2 ] (2), [11 ],,,,2020 6 10 8 t,2020 10 %
354 24 20 % [61 ], 0108 hm 2 ( ) 011 hm 2 (), ( 0128 hm 2 ), ( 012 hm 2 ) 666 0105 hm 2,3 4 0106 hm 2,0113 hm 2 12 (), 20302040 0105 hm 2 [62 ] (3) 1/ 4,18 [63 ] 2020 6500 10 8 m 3 [21 ], 20,,, 2250 10 8 m 3[63 ] (4) 11 %,214 %, 112 % 230,51 % [64 ],,,,2002 1167 10 8 t, 8360 10 4 t, 34 %2020 30 10 8 t40 10 8 t, [ 22 ],, 2020, 212 10 8 t 1000 10 8 m 3, 60 % 50 % [22 ] (5) 80 % 90 % 70 % [ 42 ] 45,2000 29,2010 24, 2020 6,, [65 ] 20 3018 %38 %, 2512 %2818 %, 7715 %91 %, 2917 %69 % [66 ] (6),,GDP 10 %,GDP 1 % [67 ],,, (7) 20, 20,,,,
3 : 20 355 6 50, 50,, 611 50,, 50 1949,,,,,,, 50,,,,,,,, 612, 50,,,, ;,,, 613,, [ 3 ],,,,,,,, 614,,,,,,,,
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358 24 Remarkable environmental changes in China during the past 50 years : a case study on regional research of global environmental change GE Quan2sheng 1,FAN G Xiu2qi 2,1,ZHAN G Xue2qin 1,WU Shao2hong 1 (1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101,China ; 2. School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China) Abstract :More and more attention is paid to the combination of global and regional issues in t he sutdy of global environmental change ( GEC). The GEC research emp hasizes t hat t he global environmental problems should be probed t hrough regional studies. Resources and environmental problems have become one important issues of GEC research. The geo2 grap hical environment of China has significantly changed during t he past 50 years due to t he intense ant hropogenic activities and t he glo bal enviro nmental changes1 The main chan2 ges of the p hysical processes and environment element s are as follows : 1) t he shift of cli2 mate zones in response to global warming ; 2) the uneven precipitation changes inducing more floods in southern China and more severe drought s in northern China ; 3) serious pol2 lutio n and enormo us demand o n materials and energy ; and 4) t he significant changes in natural hydrological process1 As to t he geograp hical patterns, t he economic geograp hical pattern has changed in t he process of industrialization, which brought changes as well to t he patterns of pop ulation, urban system, and supply2demand of nat ural resources1 As a result, t he land cover pattern has been greatly modified1 The urban and transportation ar2 ea has expanded quickly and occupied a great deal of farmland, causing farmland reductio n in core agricult ural area and cultivatio n increase in marginal agricult ural area1 The nat ural forest area is reducing while t he forest plantatio n is expanding1 The grassland is shrinking and has serio usly degraded1 The area of lakes and wetland has decreased, and t he sea farming area has remarkably increased1 The above2mentioned remarkable environmental changes indicated t hat some irreversi2 ble changes on environmental element s have taken place, and t he resources and environ2 ment have beco me key limiting factors to natio nal securit y1 The f ut ure develop ment of China is facing critical challenges f rom various risks on resource and environment issues, e1 g1 climate risk under t he global warming, t he risk of farmland and food supplies, t he risk of water resources, the risk of energy, t he risk of mineral resources, t he risk of envi2 ronmental quality, and the potential risk of some great project s1 The geograp hical envi2 ronment of China should be st udied from t he global views1 Key words :geograp hical environment ;China ;global environmental change