2013
2013 (house view) ( ) 1. 2 2. 3 3. 4 4. 4 5. 6 6. 8 8 10 14 18 21 24 27 30 2
( ) (GDP) -- GDP 3
2013 1969 5,500 2,894 700 650 FIL Limited 2012/9/30 350 3 3 ( ) 4
3 ( ) 100 ( ) 3 1. 2. 3. 5
2013 Henk-Jan Rikkerink 6
Leon Tucker 2008 ( 40 ) 2013 Sabita Prakash ( ) Olivier Szwarcberg 7
1 8 Rebased to 100 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 MSCI Q3 1992 Q3 1993 Q3 1994 Q3 1995 Q3 1996 Q3 1997 Q3 1998 Q3 1999 Q3 2000 Q3 2001 Q3 2002 Q3 2003 Q3 2004 Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008 Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Source: DataStream, data from Q3 1992 to Q3 2012. Note: European Union members are: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, UK 262.6 220.3 (retained earning) 1 1991 2011 ( ) 105
(EPS) Rebased to 100 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 MSCI AC () 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: DataStream, data from 31.12.1991 to 31.12.2011. Note: Asia members are: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Brunei, Cambodia, China, East Timor, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Laos, Macau, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam 365.5 248.7 1. Morgan Stanley Research, 15.08.2012 9
2 10
( ) 2008 Rebased to 100 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 10-2002 10-2003 10-2004 10-2005 10-2006 10-2007 10-2008 10-2009 10-2010 10-2011 10-2012 Source: Datastream, based on MSCI indices, data as at 31.10.2012 11
( ) OECD OECD OECD cost push 20 - topup loan loss provision 12
60 60 35 (%) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1950 1975 2000 2012 2050 Source: United Nations, World Population Ageing 1950-2050 ; Population Ageing and Development 2012 10 Essilor* Novo Nordisk* 2012 9,200 6,300 1 * 1. IDF Diabetes Atlas, 2012 Update. 13
3 1010 1 14
12.0 10.0 (%) (%) 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1 1 1 1 10 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 Source: DataStream, as at 29.11.12. The blue line shows the yields available five years previously. Real estate yields: FIL/CBRE, IPD, end Q2 2007 and 2012. GDP deleveraging OECD 90% 1% 2 3 2011 8 2050 20 80 -- -- 15
( ) AAA 70% (best issuers) (strategic mandates) (P&G*) (Johnson & Johnson*) 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 Source: DataStream, as at 29.11.12. Based on 10-Year Government Bond Yields. * 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 16
15 30% 13 10% 4 2008 Microsoft* * 1. The growing importance of income investing is examined in a recent Fidelity White Paper ( The Age of Income: the growing importance of income investing in turbulent times ) which includes research carried out among Fidelity s institutional investor base. 2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, May 2010. Growth in a Time of Debt, American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-78. 3. World Population Ageing December 2009, United Nations, Dept Economic and Social Affairs. 4. DataStream, current yield vs. 15 year average yield as at 25.06.2012. Indices used MSCI Japan, S&P 500, MSCI AC Asia ex Japan, MSCI World, MSCI Emerging Markets, FTSE All Share Index, MSCI Europe ex UK. 17
4 (Creative destruction ) (big data) 3 18
(BIG DATA) 90% 3 V Variety of data (Volume of data kilobytes megabytes ) (Velocity of Data 10 SAP* * 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 5.1 Source: Wikibon, 2012 10.2 16.8 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 32.1 48.0 53.4 19
600 500 400 300 200 100 0 7.2 2004 8.5 (%) () 2005 10.5 2006 16.0 2007 22.6 2008 80% 1 38.1% ( *) ( *) 29.8 2009 34.3 2010 Source: China Internet Network Information Centre (CNNIC), June 2012 38.3 2011 39.9 2012 (June) 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 60% 30% 2 * 1. www.internetworldstats.com, (figures last updated to end-december 2011) 2. International Data Corporation (IDC), August 2012; Fidelity IP ARM Holdings* 20
5 21 2008 150 21
5,000,000 Source: EIA, as at October 2012 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2001 horizontal drilling (hydraulic fracturing) -- 4,500,000 60 4,000,000 55 3,500,000 50 3,000,000 45 2,500,000 2,000,000 (10,)- 40 1,500,000 40 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 65 30% 2000 1% 1 ( 1999 2007 2 2007 1,300 2011 800 60 3 20 (IEA) 2012 2020 4 ( ) ( ( ) 2020 5 (GDP) 2% 3.3% Source: World Bank Pink Sheet, October 2012 22
5 200 ( Valero Energy*) ( Halliburton*) 6 2020 (Eastman Chemical*) 3 4 ( Spectris*) Altsom* (Siemens*) * 1. On the shale trail, Goldman Sachs Equity Research, Fortnightly Thoughts, March 2012. 2. Longview Economics, Commodities Monthly No.32, April 2012. 3. BP energy Outlook 2030, Jan 2012; Christof Ruehl, BP Chief Economist, Middle East Petroleum and Gas Conference, Manama, Bahrain, May 2012 4. World Energy Outlook 2012. International Energy Agency, November 2012 5. Energy 2020: North America, the New Middle East?, Commodities Research and Strategy, Edward L Morse, Citi, March 2012 23
6 (Age of Deleveraging) GREAT MODERATION GREAT DELEVERAGING 1980 2000 (Great Moderation) ( ) ( ) Ray Dalio 1 24
10 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0-200 -400 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: US Federal Reserve, September 2012 / Ray Dalio (ugly deflationary deleveraging) (beautiful deleveraging) Dalio ( ) (Dalio ) 35 30 ( GDP%) 25 GDP20 (%) 15 10 5 0 Jan-99 Jul-00 Jan-02 Jul-03 Jan-05 Jul-06 Jan-08 Jul-09 Jan-11 Jul-12 Source: Goldman Sachs, global central banks, September 2012 25
Sanofi* * () 1. An In-Depth look at Deleveragings, Ray Dalio, February 2012 26
7 (GDP) 2012 27
2 7-8% 2012 10 2008 2012 9 1 ( 1,580 (National Development and Reform Commission) 1 2012 10 10 800 60 16 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 % () () () 0 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 50 40 30 20 10 0 GDP(%) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4 GDP Source: Datastream, data as at 2011. -6 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, Oct 2012 28
2009 2011 ( *) * 25% (Dim Sum bond) - ( ) ( * 1. National Development and Reform Commission website, September 2012 29
8 ( ) GDP(%) -4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 Source: Datastream, data as at 31.12.2011. % (GDP) ( ) ( ) 30
( *) GDP(%) Source:Datastream, data at 31.12.2012. F = forecast 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 Q1 2003 Q1 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Source: Datastream, data as at 31.12.2012. F= forecast Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 F 2012 180 4% 12 * 31
10% ; www.fidelity.com.tw www.fundclear.com.tw FIL Limited FIL Limited 100% 106 207 15 0800-00-9911 2 Fidelity, Fidelity Worldwide Investment, Fidelity Worldwide Investment F FIL Limited FIST-MKT-EXMP1301-015