(The problem of China s Banking industry)
1978 1979 1995 2002 (IMF) WTO i
ABSTRACT The China government has worked on economic reformation and opening policy since the end of 1978 in order to follow the trend of international economic development. Economic decides finance, financial reformation, such as setting up central bank system, improving the function of commercial banks, developing financial market, is one of the most important chain in economic reformations. Basically, the main part of this research is review of the reform process of the banking system in China. Because the Chinese economy is in a rapid transition and its banking system has been constantly changing since the late 1970s. The financial system of Mainland China has been improved a lot for more than twenty years. There are still many problems in structure and operation during the procedure of financial development. A lot of bad loans for national banks, unhealthy financial management, immature capital market and the impact as the entry into the WTO, are going to be the tests of banking system of Mainland China. Beside, we use the theory of banking crisis discussing the problem of China s banking industry. And research an outline of the present situation of banking system in China. Our major discussing are as follows Chapter one of this research is introduction of this research. Chapter two reviews how the current banking system has emerged from the all-inclusive monobank system in the past. Chapter three we review the theory of banking crisis. Chapter four provides an outline of the present situation of banking system in China. In Chapter five we discuss the problems happened and the possible impact to the banking system in China by the entrance of WTO. Chapter six provide a summary of this research. Key word China Banking industry Banking crisis. ii
iii
...1..1..4..5..6...9...9.17..27..31..38..38..40 80 90.41..57..68..70 iv
.70.72 101...110 WTO..116 WTO..116 WTO.119 WTO.122 126...130..132 v
2-1 2-2 2-3 2-4 2-5 3-1 3-2 4-1 4-2 4-3 4-4 4-5 4-6 4-8 4-9..11..16 (2000 )..33 (2001)... 33..34 / (1970~2003 )...55..68..70..71..73..75..78.. 80..82 ( )...82 4-10 1984~1999 83 4-11 A (1995~2001).84 4-12...85 4-13...86 4-14...87 4-15 2001..90 4-16...94 vi
4-17...95 4-18...95 4-19...96 4-20..103 4-21..109 5-1 5-2 5-3..119..119 (1998) 126 1. 13 2.37 3. 76 4.....76 5 GDP...80 vii
( )1979 1978 1992 1995 1985 2001 6 7 18% 1985 2001 5000 1
2002 2001 25.37% 1 6 21.99% 2.26 4.21 1.96 10 2 5 15% 2002 1 16 ) 2002 http://fnnews.yam.com/cnafn/china/news/) 15% 2
4 0 (Banking crisis) 181 130 5 90 (IMF) 2002 Preventing bank Crises. Lessons from Recent Global Bank Failures. The international bank for reconstruction and development, 1998. 3
2002 9.5% 7.8% 7% 6 WTO 1979 2002 (IMF) (Banking crisis) 2002 12 4 http://www.chinatimes.com/ 4
5
6
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 7
( ) 8
1949 10 1979 1992 7 1949 1978 9
1979 1992 1984 1986 1 1992 1993 12 1995 10
(2001) 1979 1979 ~1983 1984~1988 1989~1993 1994 ( 2-1) 2-1 1. 1949 1979 (1955) 2. ( ) 1. 1979 1. 1978 2. 1979~1983 (1979) 2. 1. 1983 1984~1988 11
(1984) 2. (1984) 3. (1984) 4. 1. 1. 1988 2. 1992 1989~1993 2. 1991 1. 1. (1994) 1993 2. (1994) 3. 1994~2002 (1995) 2. 4. (1996~2000) 5. (1997) (2001) (1) 3-4 12
(2000) (2002) (2001) (2000) (2000) (2002) (2002) (2001) 1 100%? 0 % A B C D 100% A 1996 B 2005 C 20?? D 1 (2001) 44(11) 90 13
(2002) 8 2-2 1978~1983 1984~1988 14
1989~1993 1990 1993 1. 2. 3. 4. 1990 1998 1998 15
1998 2001 2-2 1978 1978~1983 1984~1988 1989~1993 1994 1994~1997 1998~2001 2002 (2002) 16
1979 1979 1979 1978 1979~1998 17
1979 (2002) 9 ( 2) 2000 100 筞 3 4 10 99 10 (2002) 11 2000 1,268 3,900 168 71 12 191 1948 12 1 1984 1984 1992 1993 2002 20-26 2002 18
1995 3 18 爲 : : 爲 13 爲 爲 2 9 326 1827 12 ( ) www.pbc.gov.cn 19
1951 8 1952 1955 3 1957 4 1963 11 1965 11 1979 1 3 13 1994 4 1996 8 1979 ( ) 13 ( ) www.acocn.com 20
1905 1949 1952 1979 4 1983 1994 4 2000 12,967 559 14 ( ) 1954 10 1985 1978 1979 www.bank-of-china.com 21
1954 1978 1979 1994 1996 3 1994 39 2000 1000 32 15 ( ) 1983 1984 1 1 www.ccb.com.cn 22
2001 6 810 4.2 50% 5,800 3 50 410 2000 39,737.37 6 16 ( ) 1994 3 500 www.icbc.com.cn 23
17 ( ) 1994 11 200 2000 35 300 1,617 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 2001 7,846 ( www.cdb.com.cn 24
) 1.78% 7,659 0.6% 97.61% 4 10.44 1.1 401.7 337.5 18 84% 1.7 ( ) 1994 4 33.8 2000 129 88 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 2002) 25
9. 2001 444 ( ) 28.5% 727 25.5% 911.2 856.7 54.5 33.5% 36.3% 0.9% 19 ( ) 1908 1985 1986 7 1987 4 1992 26
1992 1996 1 79 1.7 ( ) 10 2000 10 18,525 922 13,745 9,097 11.3% 2000 104 27
20 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 1997 1997 74 2000 99 4,217 106,733 7,097 6,822 74 1,073 3,465 2000 13 100 17 4,324 28
61% 2000 41,836 1,695 40,141 18,030 1,823.4 16,206.1 16,658.4 1529.2 15,129.2 11,546 1,056.7 10,489.3 1949 1986 3 1949 10 1952 1959 1981 1979 4 1983 9 29
1979 30
1949 1979 1979 1981 7 1982 1985 1990 8 ( ) 1992 6 1994 4 1 1996 12 9 1999 1 2002 2 1 2000 191 410 1.7% 2-3 2001 2-4 31
2001 12 29 2002 1 2 1 1. 2. 200 100 3. 4. 5. 2-5 32
2-3 (2000 ) ( ) (%) 114,239.0 58 16,966.7 8.6 28,944.6 14.6 19,122.7 9.7 9,051.4 4.6 5,317.1 2.7 3,408.7 1.7 197,050.2 100 (2002) 60 2-4 (2001) ( ) (%) 122,076.63 272.9 107,949.99 241.3 58,475.47 130.7 4,472.90 100.0 2002 33
2-5 ( ) 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 42.1 55.3 75.8 118.4 191.4 299.2 379.2 341.8 317.9 344.3 451.8 20.5 30.9 41.6 75.8 127.5 194.3 274.7 260.5 214.7 186.5 186.1 15.6 17.9 21.1 24.9 31.4 39.0 44.8 45.5 52.0 65.2 77.5 5.1 6.5 9.1 13.9 17.6 19.8 22.7 25.9 26.8 28.1 30.0-1993 21 34
(2001) (2000) 22 1 2 3 4 5 6 WTO 1985 2001 6 7 18% 1985 2001 5000 2001 (M0) 1.6 (M1) 5.9 (M2) 15.8 1978 M2/GDP 0.32 2001 1.65 FIR (M2+ ) GDP 1978 FIR 0.84 2001 3.39 35
23 36
2 2002 37
80 (Banking crisis) 181 130 24 (Banking crisis) (individual bank failure) (banking system failure) ( ) ( 38
) Gavin and Hausmann(1996) 25 1990 ( ) (systemic banking crisis) (1999) 26 (2002) 39
27 Federal Reserve bank of San Franciso(1985) Bordo(1985) Klingebiel(1997) Eichengreen and Rose(1998) Sundararajan and Balino(1991) Frederic Mishkin(1996) (IMF 1998) (bank failure) Kaminsky and Reinhart (1996 1999) (1) (2) Demirgüç-Detragiache(1998) 15% GDP 40
3% 5% GDP 1% Anne Vila(2000) (CMAX t ) (2000) (systemic banking crisis) (Banking crisis) (1999) 28 1980 41
1990 ( ) 29 80 90 30 1982 1970 1980 1982 8 1983 (Brady) 1980 1930 1960 1970 42
1970 1980 1986 1980 80 1988 200 1987 164 41 41 1988 1 39 1992 1986 1991 1989 ( ) ( ) 1991 8 43
1995 1992~1993 Exchange Rate Mechanism ERM 1992 ERM 1994~1995 1980 1994 65% 1997~1998 44
1997 7 1997 1998 31 ( ) 45
1. 2. 3. 4. Kaminsky Reinhart 1996 32 ( ) 46
1992 9 1980 ( ) 47
( ) 1991 FDICIA ( ) ( ) 48
1993 1994 3.1 5.3 1970~1990 2~3 33 2001 2 2000 3 70 16% TC Ziraat Bankasi Halk Bankasi 29 7500% 2001 12 IMF 117 49
2001 1455000 50% 34 2001 12 4 540 産 700 200 産 2002 3 2001 12 爲 217 2002 43 80 116 13.75 11 200 23 産 産 30 170 爲 2002 45 2002 5 20 (http://www.gog.com.cn/xb/x0204/cal6003.htm) 50
5 11 産 2001 900 1 1 爲 900 2001 7 ( ) 爲 ( ) 51
2001 11 ( ) ( ) 2001 爲 ( ) 爲 爲 産 62%~68% 52
( ) 2002 5 9 爲 35 10 2003 2 50 1 6 1 1000 2003 2 25 http://www.gog.com.cn 53
10 5% 6 30 5000 250 20 60 1992 20 350 2002 6 4854.2 3233.8 66.6% 3-1 1970 ( ) 54
3-1 / (1970~2003 ) / 1973 1974 Herstatt 1982 1984 1985 1986 (FRN) 1987 1989 1989 1990 1990-1 1991-2 1991-2 1992-6 1992 (ECU) 1992-3 (ERM) 1994 1995 1997 1998 ( ) (LTCM) 2001 55
2001 2003-2 56
36 (IMF) 10% 2% 37 Corsetti-Pesenti-Roubini(1998) Demirgüç-Detragiache(1997) Caprio-Klingebiel(1995) Kaminsky Reinhart (1996) Lindren et al(1996) Sheng(1995) IMF 57
10% 2% 38 ( ) 1. 58
1/2~1/3 Kaminsky and Reinhart(1996) 39 1984 ~1988 1988~1993 2. Kaminsky and Reinhart(1996) 3. 59
Caprio and Klingebiel(1996) 40 10% Kaminsky and Reinhart(1996) (stylized fact) Hausmann and Gavin(1996) 41 ( ) Hausmann and Gavin(1995) Caprio and Klingebiel(1996) ( ) Gavin and Hausmann(1996) 42 Kaminsky and Reinhart(1996) Caprio and Klingebiel(1996) 60
1988 1990~1991 ( ) Kaminsky and Reinhart(1996) Mishkin(1994) 43 (BIS) ( ) Honohan(1996) 44 59 1980 1993 M2/GDP 28% 35% M2/GDP 61
( ) Calvo and Goldstein(1996) 45 1989~1994 M2/GDP 1994 (M2 ) ( ) 1994 12 20 BIS(1996) 60% 10% Kaminsky and Reinhart(1996) 25 18 62
( ) Padoa-Schioppa(1996) 46 129 1/2 Folkerts-Landau et al.(1995) 91% 60~67% 57% 90% ( ) (1997) 1996 2 1994 90% 60% 2/3 25% Folkerts-Landav et al.(1995) 47 63
1980 Caprio and Klingebiel(1996) Lindgen et al(1990) 48 (1998) 64
Cavin and Hausmann(1996) 産 爲 産 産 産産 麽 麽 爲 65
爲 産 100% 爲 100% 爲 爲 爲 衆 爲 爲麽 産 爲 爲 爲 麽 66
67
3-2 3-2 80 80 1992 ( ) 1992~1993 1994~1995 1997~1998 2001 2001 ~ 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 2003 1. 2. 3. 4. (IMF) 5. 6. 68
( ) 10% ( ) 2% ( ) ( ) Demirgüç-Detragiache(1997) Caprio -Klingebiel(1995) Kaminsky Reinhart (1996) Lindren et al(1996) Sheng(1995) Kaminsky Reinhart (1996) Caprio-Klingebiel(1995) Folkerts-Landau et al (1995) Hausmann and Gavin(1996) Honohan(1996) Galvo and Goldstein (1996) Padoa-Schioppa(1996) (1999) IMF ( ) 1. 2. 3. ( ) 69
4-1 4-1 IMF 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. ( ) 4-1 4-2 70
4-2 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. M2/GDP M2/GDP 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. IMF 2% 71
4-2 4-3 WTO 72
4-3 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1.98 1.71 1.44 0.99 0.99 0.99 (%) (%) - -13.63-15.78-31.25 - - 548.0 644.1 585.6 526.7 593.56 496.72 ( ) (%) - 17.5-9.1-10.1 12.69-16.32 68572.1 82390.3 95607.9 108778.9 123804.35 130420.46 ( ) (%) - 20.15 16.04 13.77 13.81 5.34 2002 1989 4-4 1989 1986 1989 1 3.7 1990 3.7 4.78 22.5% 1991~1993 5.5 1994 1993 5.76( ) 8.64 33.3% 1997 8.28 3 4 73
1994 74
4-4 1981 440.3-0.1 1.70 1992 1653.3 43.5 5.51 1982 416.1 30.3 1.89 1993 1957.0-122.2 5.76 1983 436.2 9.2 1.98 1994 2367.3 54.0 8.62 1984 535.5-12.7 2.33 1995 2808.5 166.9 8.35 1985 696.0-14.9 2.94 1996 2899.0 123.0 8.31 1986 738.5-119.7 3.45 1997 3251.6 403.4 8.29 1987 826.5-37.7 3.72 1998 3204.5 167.0 8.28 1988 1027.9-77.5 3.72 1999 3606.5 292.1 8.28 1989 1116.8-66.0 3.77 2000 4742.9 241.1 8.2783 1990 1154.4 87.4 4.78 2001 5097.6 225.4 8.2774 1991 1356.3 80.5 5.32 AREMOS 2002 75
3 1. 1978 (=100) 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2. GDP ( /GDP ) IMF "World Economic Outlook" 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 4 100 76
4-5 1990 ( 1990~2000) 1993 122.2 18.37%( 4-5) 1997 1998 2001 77
4-5 (%) 1981 440.3 - -0.1 1992 1653.3 21.90 43.5 1982 416.1-5.50 30.3 1993 1957 18.37-122.2 1983 436.2 4.83 9.2 1994 2367.3 20.97 54 1984 535.5 22.76-12.7 1995 2808.5 18.64 166.9 1985 696 29.97-14.9 1996 2899 3.22 123 1986 738.5 6.11-119.7 1997 3251.6 12.16 403.4 1987 826.5 11.92-37.7 1998 3204.5-1.45 167 1988 1027.9 24.37-77.5 1999 3606.5 12.54 292.1 1989 1116.8 8.65-66 2000 4742.9 31.51 241.1 1990 1154.4 3.37 87.4 2001 5097.6 7.48 225.4 1991 1356.3 17.49 80.5 (%) AREMOS 2001 1.5 7%~8% 2015 50~60 8% 10% GDP 4-3 78
GDP 4-6 4-7 2003 9.9% 3000 Thomas Rawski 2001 4% 2000 3% 1998 1999 Rawski 爲 1978 1997 1998 1997 2000 GDP 25% ( 4-6) 11.8% Rawski Lawrence Klein MIT Lester Thurow ( Economists) ( Lehman Brothers) ( Moody's) 49 2001 5 10 62,000 50 79
GDP IMF <World Economic Outlook> 4-6 (1995 ) ( ) ( ) ( =100) 1995 58,478.1 58,478.1 1996 67,884.6 64,102.5 9.6 1997 74,462.6 69,786.9 8.8 1998 78,345.1 75,187.2 7.8 1999 82,054.3 80,524.3 7.1 2000-88228.1 9.5 2001-94346.4 6.9 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 129034 132616 132410 124250 110000 ( ) (%) - 2.8-0.1-6.2-11.5 2001 2000 (%) 80
( ) ( 4-8) 1993 32,943 2001 104,714 3.18 80% 1999 30%( 4-9) (2001) 1993 2 1999 24,000 ( 4-10) 81
4-8 (%) ( - ) 1992 18079.00 21337.80-3258.80 118.03 1993 23468.00 26322.90-2854.90 112.17 1993 29627.00 32943.10-3316.10 111.19 1994 40472.50 40810.10-337.60 100.83 1995 63862.20 60638.00 3324.20 94.95 1996 68572.10 61162.80 7419.30 89.19 1997 82390.30 74914.10 7476.20 90.93 1998 95607.90 86524.10 9083.80 90.50 1999 108778.90 93734.30 15044.60 86.17 2000 123804.35 99371.07 24433.28 80.26 2001 143617.20 112314.70 31302.50 78.20 = / 1996 1997 2002 4-9 ( ) % 1995 3 1997 1999 ( ) 13.4 15 ( ) 6.0 8~9 ( ) 1.7 2 21.1 25~26 20~30 1995 3-1996 1997 (1999) 1999 2002 7-96 82
4-10 1984~1999 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 2.03 12.86 90.27 850 1110 1560 1740 1862 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 3000 6500 7000 8000 10000 18000 22620 24000 (2001) ( ) A B 51 B A 1994 71% 2001 33%( 4-11) 2001 ( 4-12) 159,439.50 106,089.77 ( ) 52 33% H N 83
4-11 A (1995~2001) 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1092.85 972.03 1313.92 1578.61 1508.41 1860.86 2251.89 3039.12 321.20 539.86 527.85 905.50 1108.91 1113.16 1446.12 2041.58 (%) 71 44 60 43 26 40 36 33 249.71 176.77 498.45 546.02 471.99 561.56 703.97 698.10 95.26 116.32 107.93 319.25 341.00 333.77 445.32 461.95 (%) 62 34 78 42 28 41 37 34 1996 1997 2002 84
4-12 1999 2000 2001 産 産 17028.20 20124.34 26424.74 105806.70 117309.80 133014.76 222834.90 137434.14 159439.50 M2 119897.90 134610.26 158301.92 M1 45837.30 53147.15 59871.59 ( M0 ) 13455.5 14652.65 15688.80 32381.8 38494.50 44182.79 74060.60 81463.11 98430.33 9476.8 11261.08 14180.14 59621.8 64332.38 73762.43 4962.0 5869.65 10487.76 7276.4 7396.74 7659.77 2002 ( ) M2/GDP ( M2 ) (M2/GDP) 85
4-13 1978 0.32 2001 1.68 5 4-14 2001 M2 13% 78%( ) ( ) ( ( 106,089.77 ) ( 143,617 ) 9 4-13 (M1) (M2/GDP) (M2) (M0) (GDP) 1978 1159.71 3624.1 0.32 1992 25402.2 11731.5 4336.0 26651.9 0.95 1993 34879.8 16280.4 5864.7 34560.5 1.01 1994 46923.5 20540.7 7288.6 46670.0 1.01 1995 60750.5 23987.1 7885.3 57494.9 1.06 1996 76094.9 28514.8 8802.0 66850.5 1.14 1997 90995.3 34826.3 10177.6 73142.7 1.24 1998 104498.5 38953.7 11204.2 76967.2 1.36 1999 119879.9 45837.3 13455.5 80579.4 1.49 2000 134610.4 53147.2 14652.7 88228.1 1.53 2001 158301.92 59871.59 15688.80 94346.4 1.68 AREMOS 1996 1997 2002 86
4-14 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 (%) ( / 8.2798 8.2787 8.2795 8.2774 8.2768 ) 0.01 1,399 1,450 1,547 1,656 2,122 +28.1 ( ) (M2) 91,868 105,560 121,042 135,960 158,302 +16.4 82,390 95,698 108,779 123,804 143,617 +16.0 74,914 86,524 93,734 99,371 112,315 +13.0 % 90.93 90.50 86.17 80.26 78.20 - - - 7276.4 7396.74 7659.77 - - 74060.60 81463.11 98430.33-1. 2001 2. M2 - ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( 4-14) 2003 3000 87
1999 5 5 1998~1999 300 2001 12 WTO WTO 88
4-15 2001 50% 1998 460 (Goldman Sachs) 2.4 ( 2900 ) 2005 Jonathan Anderson 3 1.4 2700 89
45% 53 4-15 2001 (%) 143617 112314 78.2 16.00 11.60 87509 64662 73.9 13.72 11.00 61 58 16560 11462 69.2 37.77 36.17 12 10 6789 4527 66.7 28.62 30.49 5 4 18335 12696 69.2 10.06 9.96 13 11 (2002) (%) (%) (%) (%) ( ) 90
2002 WTO 2002 1 1 3 54 91
( ) 2001 5 2000 12 31 5 ( ) 92
( ) ( ) 93
( ) (2002 ) 1999 1997 36,96 ( 4-16) 4-16 1999 ( ) 1997 4834 400% 1468 200% 1147 2.96% 36696 57497 2002 2002 ( ) ( 4-17)( ) ( 4-18)( ) ( 4-19) 94
4-17 (%) (%) 40.54 51.77 15.95 25.32 0.03 0.09 43.48 22.82 2002 4-18 (%) (%) 24.48 33.39 55 46.97 38.42 3.11 6.72 56 4.96 12.50 12.45 4.46 8.03 4.52 2002 55 95
4-19 (%) (%) 1. 15.21 16.72 2. 2.20 2.88 3. 1.54 2.17 4. 4.90 12.71 5. 22.09 24.17 6. 13.17 11.49 7. 6.19 8.69 8. 34.70 21.17 2002 ( ) 4 100 200 96
2002 1 8.27 1994 97
5.1% 1994 1994 1 9 13.9% 21.5% 1997 98
1978 1970 1983 1983 9 99
57 GDP 25% 100
35% 1998 2700 400 1998 40 460 3600 10~20% 20% 2% 46.15%( 4-20) 58 IMF 101
102
4-20 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. M2/GDP 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 2% (%) 46.15% 103
1978 1970 1983 1983 9 1990 2446 19 104
( ) ( ) 59 ( ) ( ) 105
1998 2001 4 40 50 2001 9 60 1995 3 18 6 3 1998 12 106
(2002) 40% 攺 2002 10 17 2005 107
61 2002 8 23 (Moody's Investors Service Inc.) 2002 1 200 (Fitch IBCA Inc., X.FTH) (Arthur Lau) (Business Ethics in China) Brent A. Johnson http://www.dajiyuan.com 108
Johnson Johnson 4-21 (A) (%) (B) (%) 1997 3331 31 36 44 5811 70 63 56 1998 3035 82 23 70 9771 92 76 30 1999 1460 07 23 22 4827 76 76 78 2000 1315 83 11 45 10182.27 88 55 2001 910 66 8 00 10469.00 92 00 (A) (B) 109
1995 1994 4-21 1997 2001 92% 1997~2001 50% 110
1995 5 111
( ) ( ) ( ) 112
1999 2000 1999 9 5 15% 2002 ( ) ( ) 113
( ) ( ) ( ) 114
(WTO) 115
WTO WTO 1979 2002 2001 12 11 1999 11 15 WTO WTO ( ) 116
WTO 200 100 100 2000 5 19 2001 12 11 WTO (MFN) WTO 117
WTO 32 40% WTO 1.5 50% WTO WTO WTO WTO 5-1 5-2 118
5-1 WTO (2002) WTO 2002 1 45 5-2 WTO 5-1 119
2003 1 10 120
2002 (2000) 62 WTO (2001) 63 WTO (2002) 64 WTO 121
65 WTO 122
40% 123
WTO (2002) 66 124
2000 5-3 125
5-3 (1998) (%) (%) (%) 2.01 0.09 1.98 20.5 1.76 21.3 24.7 2.00 19.7 (2002) WTO 2002 42-56 126
WTO 67 WTO 68 WTO 1998 2700 67 2000 6 3 WTO 127
1999 WTO 128
2003 1 10 30 2300 830 325 19 5300 15 12 129
46.15% 緃 2002 10 1984 130
AMC 50% (QFII) 攺 2000 4 AMC 3500 131
WTO WTO 132
( ) 1. (2001) 2. (2001) 3. (2001) 1979 4. (2001) 5. (1999) 6. (1998) 7. (2000) 8. (2002) 9. (2000) 10. (2000) 11. (2001) (1979~2001) 133
12. (1999) 13. (2001) 14. (2000) 15. (2001) 16. (2001) WTO 17. (1999) 18. (1999) 19. (2000) 20. (2001) - 21. (1999) - 22. (2001) 23. (1999) ( ) 134
1. 2002 5 2. (2002) 3. (1996) 4. (2002) 5. (2002) 6. (2002) - 1. (2002) 2. (1998) 3. (2002) WTO 4. (2001) 5. (2002) 6. (2001) - ( ) ( ) 1. (2001) 90 2 10-23 135
2. WTO 3. (2001) 23 5 21-25 4. (2001) 15 2 60-64 5. (1999) 1999 1 6. (2003) 2002 2003 2 7. (2002) ( ) 2002 5-10 8. (2001) WTO ( ) 2001 36-73 9. (2002) WTO ( ) 2002 42-56 10. (2002) ( ) 2002 20-26 11. (1999) 12(4) 88-101 12. (2001) 27-32 13. (2001) - 44(11) 67-93 14. (2000) 596 10-15 15. (2000) ( )( ) 597 598 4-9 16. (1999) 22(6) 17-24 136
17. (2002) 2003 18. (1999) 1999 4 61 19. (2001) ~ 00 44(1) 1-33 20. (2002) ( 2002 74~76 21. (1999) WTO 1999 12 120-121 22. (2001) 15-25 23. (1998) - 1998 2 58-60 24. (1998) 14-38 25. (1998) 87 9 11-38 26. (1999) ( ) 1999 5 73-79 27. (1998) 28. (2001) 1-16 29. (2001) 90 9 72-75 30. (2002) ( ) 2002 137
18-20 31. (1999) ( ) 1999 6 32. (1999) 201~215 33. (2001) 24(7) 74-79 34. (2002) WTO ( ) 447 33-35 35. (2002) 38(4) 11-22 36. (2000) 89 12 25-33 37. (1999) 133~151 38. (2002) ( ) 2002 59-67 39. (2002) 2002 44-45 40. (2001) WTO 90 36 18-29 41. (2002) ( ) 2002 31-37 42. (2001) 1-13 43. (1999) 88 8 95-103 138
44. (2002) WTO 91 6 15-33 45. (1998) 87 12 73-78 46. (2000) 89 9 47. (1999) 1999 8 90-91 48. (2002) 91 3 72-75 49. (2002) ( ) 2002 14-34 ( ) V. Sundararajan and Tomas J.T. Balino(1991). Banking crises :cases and issues Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund,/c1991. ( ) 1. Asli Demir Demirgüç-Kunt and Enrica Detragiache (1997). The Determinants of Banking Crises: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries. Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund,/1997. 2. Asli Demir Demirgüç- Kunt(2000). Inside the Crisis:An Empirical Analysis of Banking Systems in Distress Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund,/2000. 1. 2002 5 9 (http://fnnews.yam.com/cnafn/china/news/) 2. www.pbc.gov.cn 3. www.acocn.com 139
4. www.bank-of-china.com 5. www.ccb.com.cn 6. (2002 ) 7. ( 2002 ) 8. 2002 5 20 (http://www.gog.com.cn/xb/x0204/cal6003.htm) 9. 2002 1 16 (http://big5.xinhuanet.com/) 10. 2002 1 28 http://www.dajiyuan.com 11. 2002 12 19 http://www.dajiyuan.com 12. www.cdb.com.cn 13. 140