IGBT 2010 03 07 29.70 300 3259.76 3031.07 12341.74 5859.16 (8621)61038265 chengb@gjzq.com.cn (8621)61038271 zhuli@gjzq.com.cn 969 15A 200011 IGBT IGBT 25% 09 53 160 IGBT IGBT IGBT 25% 09 53 100 IGBT IGBT IGBT IGBT IGBT IGBT () EPS PE 2010 2011 YOY(%) 2010 2011 PB 600360 521.6 0.252 0.401 59.13% 32.3 20.3 2.89 2129 482.83 0.105 0.375 257.14% 102.86 28.8 3.61 600584 745.18 0.272 0.413 51.84% 31.76 20.92 3.93 600986 335.27 0.131 0.242 84.73% 63.97 34.63 4.79 300046 59.2 0.769 1.012 31.67% 53.99 41.01 10.12 IGBT 1
IGBT IGBT... 4... 4 IGBT... 5 IGBT... 7... 7... 9 IGBT... 10... 12... 12... 14... 17... 17... 18 1... 4 2... 5 3... 5 4IGBT... 5 5... 6 6IGBT... 6 7 IGBT... 7 8... 7 9... 8 10... 8 11... 9 12... 9 13... 9 14... 9 15 IGBT... 10 16... 10 17... 11 18... 11 19... 11 20... 12 2
IGBT 21... 12 22... 12 23... 13 24 IGBT... 13 25 IGBT... 14 26 2000... 15 272012... 16 28... 16 29... 16 30... 17 31IGBT... 17 323... 18 33... 18 25... 18 34A... 19 36... 21 37... 22 38... 23 39... 25 40... 26 41... 27 42... 28 3
IGBT IGBT IGBT 1 2010 GDP 2005 20% 10% 2009 11 25 2020 GDP 2005 40~45 2009 36430 5% 1821.5 2 2010 1000 15%~20% 4
IGBT 2 3 IGBT IGBT IGBT IGBT MOSFET MOSFET IGBT IGBT 4IGBT IGBT MOSFET IGBT 5
IGBT IGBT MOSFET IGBT 5 IGBT 6IGBT 2006 2007 2007 2009 (2006-2020 ) 5 15 15 IGBT IGBT 2009 IGBT 53 IGBT 10% IGBT 20%~30% 6
IGBT 7 IGBT 2010E YOY(%) 2011E YOY(%) 2012E YOY(%) 2013E YOY(%) 17.48 34.81 27.60% 15.70% 24.63 41.19 40.89% 18.33% 31.04 49.20 26.03% 19.45% 38.64 58.27 24.48% 18.43% 4.60 4.82 13.80% 30.00% 5.30 6.31 15.22% 30.91% 6.10 8.14 15.09% 29.00% 7.00 10.45 14.75% 28.38% / 4.70 77.30% 7.80 65.96% 12.30 57.69% 19.60 59.35% 2.70 13.00% 3.00 11.11% 3.30 10.00% 3.70 12.12% HEV/EV 2015IGBT30 69.11 32.91% 88.23 27.66% 110.08 24.77% 137.66 25.05% IGBT IGBT IGBT 30%~40% IGBT 2009 2008 7% 2009 18% 2012 1000 30%~35% 2000 90 60 3040 8 7
IGBT 9 10 ZDC 2 IGBT IGBT IGBT 2008 4000 20%~30% IGBT 2009 2010 2011 2012 2009 2010 3726 3700 4032 4615 1602 1922 2115 2432 2009 0.60% 80-100 799.20 801.14 839.07 919.63 2750 3200 3275 3350 1279 1535 1688 1942 0.10% 362.61 407.21 416.89 435.53 3755 3600 3869 4605 2819 3242 3891 3891 15-20% 20-30% 1380.54 1393.72 1531.82 1623.59 IGBT 12.57 17.48 24.63 31.04 IGBT 87.90 89.91 97.49 103.44 8
IGBT IGBT 70%~75% 60% 20%-30% 50% 10% IGBT 24.7% 8.9% IGBT 11 12 13 14 9
IGBT 15 IGBT IGBT 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 17.78 21.15 25.40 27.70 29.70 34.81 41.19 49.20 0.81 1.58 2.14 3.29 3.65 4.82 6.31 8.14 13.57 18.18 23.41 27.89 31.68 39.62 48.45 59.63 33.97% 28.72% 19.16% 13.57% 25.08% 22.28% 23.09% 16 IGBT IGBT IGBT IGBT 2009 8.32020 15 2011 2020 200 2000 3500 1.5 IGBT IGBT 10
IGBT 17 18 19 GWEC HEVEV IGBT IGBT 2009 160 HEV EV IGBT 11
IGBT 20 AFDC 21 22 IGBT IGBT 2006 12
IGBT 23 CCID IGBT IGBT IGBT 2425 IGBT 24 IGBT 13
IGBT 25 IGBT 2008 1200V 75A/100A IGBT 400V IGBT 1200V 2009 1200V/600V 20A IGBT 1200V 20A 2008 1515 IGBT 6 2006 IGBT 2009 IGBT 2009 IGBT 2010 NPT IGBT IGBT 2009 IGBT 2009 1000 Mosfet/IGBT IGBT 2008 Dynex75%Dynex IGBT 1200V1700V3300V4500V6500V 8000 IGBT 6 IGBT 600V 75~400A1200V 50~300A IGBT 600V 400~800A1200V 200~400A IGBT H 600V 75~400A1200V 50~200A 1200V 50~300A 600V/1200V H +PIMIPM 600V PIM 1200V PIM 1700V 600V 75~200A 1200V 50~300A IR IGBT IR 14
IGBT 1 2 IGBT IGBT IGBT 1 IGBT IGBT 2IGBT IGBT IGBT IGBT IGBT IGBT IGBT IGBT IGBT IGBT IGBT IGBT IGBT 2000 2015 IGBT IGBT IGBT 26 2000 15
IGBT 272012 28 IGBT IGBT 2020 18959 27056 2013-2020 18256 IGBT 2010 2 23 IGBT IGBT 29 IGBT IGBT IGBT 2009 100 16
IGBT 0.3% 10 50% 2009 IGBT 44 2009 IGBT 80% 30 31IGBT 17
IGBT 323 33 34 IGBT IGBT IGBT IGBT IGBT IGBT 18
IGBT 35A () 2010EPS 2011EPS YOY(%) 2010PE 2011PE PB 600360 521.60 0.252 0.401 59.13% 32.30 20.30 2.89 002129 482.83 0.105 0.375 257.14% 102.86 28.80 3.61 600584 745.18 0.272 0.413 51.84% 31.76 20.92 3.93 600986 335.27 0.131 0.242 84.73% 63.97 34.63 4.79 300046 59.20 IGBT 0.769 1.012 31.67% 53.99 41.01 10.12 6MOSFETIGBT1200V/35A IGBTIGBT IGBTIGBTIGBT IGBT1200V/35A300 IGBT 19
IGBT 600360.SH ()8.14 ()12.03 2011 IGBT 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E () 0.510 0.607 0.107 0.051 0.252 0.401 34.45% 31.50% -64.69% -52.44% 394.25% 59.44% EPS () N/A N/A N/A 0.048 0.246 0.338 () 28.92 37.76 32.50 159.85 32.34 20.29 () 28.08 56.85 20.09 44.38 44.38 N/A () 25.86 45.72 15.55 29.70 29.70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.00% 0.12% 0.12% PE/G() 0.84 1.20 N/A -3.05 0.08 0.34 14.02% 11.10% 3.77% 1.76% 8.03% 11.39% () 3.64 5.47 2.84 2.89 3.13 3.52 () 4.05 4.19 1.23 2.82 2.60 2.31 () 0.28 0.76 0.38 1.06 0.44 0.60 A() 125.00 151.22 337.09 410.29 410.29 410.29 () 236.00 260.80 521.60 521.60 521.60 521.60 EPS IGBT VDMOS IGBT IGBT 20
IGBT 36 IGBT 0911 26.56131.28 209.31-52.44%394.25% 59.44%EPS 0.0510.252 0.401 12 12.03 IGBT 2010 2011 IGBT IGBT 2009 21
IGBT 37 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 764.17 1,128.06 1,062.74 1,080.56 1,273.81 1,462.31 N/A 47.62% -5.79% 1.68% 17.88% 14.80% 30.33% 30.11% 28.08% 18.92% 28.07% 29.57% 532.40 788.39 764.29 876.07 916.21 1,029.89 N/A 48.08% -3.06% 14.63% 4.58% 12.41% 231.77 339.67 298.45 204.49 357.60 432.42 N/A 46.55% -12.13% -31.48% 74.88% 20.92% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 91.92% 83.55% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 93.55% 83.35% 112.00 288.00 N/A 157.14% 22.00% 30.00% 87.36 201.60 N/A 130.77% 24.64 86.40 N/A 250.65% 8.08% 16.45% 6.45% 16.65% 764.17 1128.06 1062.74 1080.56 1385.81 1750.31 532.40 788.39 764.29 876.07 1003.57 1231.49 231.77 339.67 298.45 204.49 382.24 518.82 30.33% 30.11% 28.08% 18.92% 27.58% 29.64% 22
IGBT 38 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 892 1,151 1,087 1,081 1,386 1,750 179 648 373 400 440 569 29.0% -5.5% -0.6% 28.2% 26.3% 481 583 399 337 432 546-619 -803-778 -876-1,004-1,231 213 286 474 264 302 371 % 69.3% 69.7% 71.6% 81.1% 72.4% 70.4% 107 78 62 91 104 126 274 348 309 204 382 519 980 1,595 1,307 1,092 1,278 1,613 % 30.7% 30.3% 28.4% 18.9% 27.6% 29.6% % 51.4% 61.6% 48.3% 42.9% 48.2% 55.5% -9-5 -6-5 -7-9 149 126 137 138 137 137 % 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 695 749 1,126 1,212 1,139 1,066-22 -20-31 -30-42 -53 % 36.4% 28.9% 41.6% 47.6% 43.0% 36.7% % 2.5% 1.7% 2.9% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 83 117 125 101 94 88-73 -99-116 -111-144 -180 928 996 1,398 1,453 1,372 1,294 % 8.2% 8.6% 10.7% 10.3% 10.4% 10.3% % 48.6% 38.4% 51.7% 57.1% 51.8% 44.5% EBIT 169 224 155 58 190 277 1,908 2,591 2,705 2,545 2,650 2,906 % 19.0% 19.5% 14.3% 5.3% 13.7% 15.8% 504 600 588 253 121 0-35 -48-52 -37-30 -22 329 403 484 610 710 874 % 3.9% 4.2% 4.8% 3.4% 2.2% 1.3% 12 32-20 15 24 29 0-7 -36 0 0 0 844 1,036 1,052 878 855 903 0 0-1 0 0 0 162 91 128 128 128 129 0 18 2 2 2 2 28 14 18 0 0 0 % n.a 9.5% 2.7% 5.9% 1.2% 0.7% 1,033 1,141 1,198 1,006 983 1,032 134 188 68 22 161 257 858 1,426 1,482 1,508 1,634 1,838 15.0% 16.3% 6.3% 2.1% 11.6% 14.7% 16 30 31 31 33 36 13 1 5 12 10 15 1,908 2,596 2,711 2,545 2,651 2,907 147 189 73 34 171 272 16.4% 16.4% 6.7% 3.1% 12.3% 15.5% -20-27 -16-7 -38-60 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 13.6% 14.4% 22.2% 20.0% 22.1% 22.0% 127 162 57 27 133 212 0.510 0.607 0.107 0.051 0.252 0.401 7 4 1 1 2 3 3.635 5.466 2.841 2.892 3.133 3.525 120 158 56 27 131 209 0.281 0.761 0.380 1.063 0.436 0.596 13.5% 13.7% 5.1% 2.5% 9.5% 12.0% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.010 0.010 14.02% 11.10% 3.77% 1.76% 8.03% 11.39% 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 6.31% 6.09% 2.06% 1.04% 4.95% 7.20% 120 162 57 27 133 212 10.13% 8.90% 5.38% 2.40% 7.70% 10.79% 7 0 0 0 0 0 60 74 113 99 110 119 45.57% 29.02% -5.53% -0.63% 28.25% 26.30% 41 31 48 23 27 16 EBIT 43.15% 23.77% -30.83% -62.94% 229.58% 46.23% -162-73 -23 405-43 -36 34.45% 31.50% -64.69% -52.44% 394.25% 59.44% 66 194 193 554 227 311 21.12% 36.10% 4.40% -5.93% 4.14% 9.65% -138-175 -433-146 -19-25 -38 64-14 -1 0 0 114.4 123.8 124.5 75.0 75.0 75.0 1 0 2 2 2 2 114.4 113.5 178.2 110.0 110.0 110.0-174 -111-445 -145-17 -23 126.7 106.7 123.2 102.0 102.0 102.0 1 403 0 0 0 0 281.7 220.8 260.0 269.9 207.0 184.2 230 27 25-337 -131-120 -49-49 -53-45 -39-38 55.47% 2.85% 22.64% -1.33% -11.49% -23.55% 182 381-28 -383-170 -158 EBIT 5.2 4.7 3.0 1.5 6.2 12.3 74 464-279 27 40 129 54.17% 43.95% 44.21% 39.53% 37.10% 35.52% 23
IGBT 002129.SZ () 10.18 A() 254.43 () 4,915.21 () 10.83/6.47 300 3421.14 5981.65 2008 0.00% 16.31 14.31 12.31 10.31 8.31 6.31 090113 090413 090707 (8621)61038265 chengb@gjzq.com.cn 500 090925 091224 1 2009.8.30 (8621)61038271 zhuli@gjzq.com.cn 969 15A 200011 0 300 400 300 200 100 IGBT 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E () 0.281 0.284 0.293-0.026 0.105 0.375 43.63% 39.75% 37.43% N/A N/A 258.70% () -0.026 0.009 0.072 EPS () N/A N/A N/A -0.094 0.136 0.216 () N/A 73.51 21.27-388.09 97.40 27.15 () 28.08 56.85 20.09 44.38 44.38 N/A () 25.86 45.72 15.55 29.70 29.70 N/A PE/G() N/A 1.85 0.57 N/A N/A 0.10 A() N/A 100.00 257.54 257.54 257.54 257.54 () 262.66 362.66 482.83 482.83 482.83 482.83 EPS 2010 12GW 10.38GW 15 2007 30% 48% IGBT PE 24
IGBT, 0911-23.7261.14 239.44-116.91%357.70% 291.64%EPS -0.0260.105 0.375 6-12 12.00 39 43.19% 48% 100% 6. 4.5 49.5% 150 300 08 5.8 80% 380, 60-80MW 5 25
IGBT 40 1 240/kg120/kg 18/20/ 6.60 2000.00 2000.00 4.79 2154.60 1723.68 5.00 2180.00 1079.10 4802.78 2 7.92 8949.6 8949.6 5.85 6729.8 5383.84 5.78 6566.08 3250.21 17583.65 300/kg150/kg 22/25/ 26
IGBT 41 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 250.08 201.77 227.40 230.18 168.76 124.70 14.19% -19.32% 12.70% 1.22% -26.68% -26.11% 34.25% 32.44% 21.04% 8.55% 12.02% 12.29% 164.44 136.30 179.56 210.51 148.49 109.37 16.42% -17.11% 31.74% 17.23% -29.46% -26.34% 85.64 65.46 47.84 19.68 20.28 15.33 10.14% -23.56% -26.93% -58.87% 3.07% -24.41% 44.09% 29.15% 26.94% 31.69% 14.14% 7.56% 46.54% 28.12% 18.88% 30.63% 10.20% 3.72% 184.89 272.58 384.91 307.00 676.20 1,047.98 238.41% 47.43% 41.21% -20.24% 120.26% 54.98% 29.30% 29.77% 29.66% 4.67% 18.05% 26.52% 130.72 191.44 270.74 292.68 554.15 770.04 235.99% 46.46% 41.42% 8.10% 89.34% 38.96% 54.17 81.14 114.17 14.32 122.05 277.94 244.41% 49.78% 40.71% -87.46% 752.15% 127.74% 32.60% 39.39% 45.61% 42.27% 56.67% 63.53% 29.44% 34.85% 45.06% 22.30% 61.37% 67.54% 132.24 217.75 231.63 164.87 199.38 258.23 115.60% 64.66% 6.37% -28.82% 20.93% 29.52% 33.42% 39.59% 39.45% 14.54% 26.96% 32.85% 88.05 131.54 140.25 140.90 145.63 173.39 113.93% 49.40% 6.62% 0.46% 3.36% 19.06% 44.19 86.20 91.38 23.97 53.74 84.84 119.01% 95.06% 6.00% -73.76% 124.17% 57.86% 23.31% 31.46% 27.45% 22.70% 16.71% 15.66% 24.02% 37.03% 36.06% 37.33% 27.03% 20.61% 24.26 148.80 218.56 N/A 513.36% 46.88% 25.80% 1.87% 15.30% 18.00 146.02 185.12 N/A 711.12% 26.78% 6.26 2.78 33.44 N/A -55.51% 1101.15% 3.34% 12.47% 13.25% 9.74% 1.40% 8.13% 567.21 692.10 843.94 726.31 1,193.14 1,649.47 383.20 459.29 590.55 662.08 994.29 1,237.92 184.01 232.81 253.39 64.23 198.85 411.55 32.44% 33.64% 30.02% 8.84% 16.67% 24.95% 27
IGBT 42 2006 2007 2008 2008E 2010E 2011E 2006 2007 2008 2008E 2010E 2011E 566 696 844 726 1,193 1,649 55 186 181 472 560 811 23.0% 21.2% -13.9% 64.3% 38.2% 200 219 129 225 369 511-383 -462-587 -662-994 -1,238 190 161 196 200 300 373 % 67.7% 66.3% 69.6% 91.2% 83.3% 75.0% 67 37 126 68 101 126 183 235 257 64 199 412 512 603 632 965 1,330 1,821 % 32.3% 33.7% 30.4% 8.8% 16.7% 25.0% % 50.1% 39.1% 30.8% 38.3% 47.6% 57.0% -4-5 -6-6 -10-12 0 50 11 12 11 11 % 0.7% 0.8% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 508 866 1,169 1,518 1,426 1,327-9 -9-9 -10-16 -18 % 49.8% 56.1% 57.0% 60.3% 51.0% 41.6% % 1.6% 1.3% 1.0% 1.4% 1.3% 1.1% 1 17 227 19 25 31-42 -51-69 -54-95 -124 509 940 1,419 1,552 1,464 1,371 % 7.3% 7.3% 8.2% 7.5% 8.0% 7.5% % 49.9% 60.9% 69.2% 61.7% 52.4% 43.0% EBIT 128 169 173-6 78 258 1,020 1,543 2,051 2,516 2,794 3,192 % 22.7% 24.3% 20.5% n.a 6.6% 15.7% 240 165 229 0 0 0-22 -19-20 -16-16 -18 61 79 116 452 686 865 % 3.8% 2.7% 2.3% 2.3% 1.4% 1.1% 7 14-9 11 17 23 0-4 -15-1 -1-1 308 258 337 463 703 887 0 0 0 0 0 0 231 60 100 100 100 101 0 0 2 0 0 0 14 32 40 0 0 0 % 0.1% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 553 350 477 563 803 988 107 147 140-24 61 239 409 1,114 1,512 1,891 1,918 2,099 18.9% 21.1% 16.6% n.a 5.1% 14.5% 20 27 58 59 69 100 2 13 36 10 10 10 778 1,020 1,076 2,079 2,578 3,216 109 160 176-14 71 249 19.3% 23.0% 20.9% n.a 6.0% 15.1% -14-21 -15 2-11 -37 2006 2007 2008 2008E 2010E 2011E 12.9% 13.0% 8.7% n.a 15.0% 15.0% 95 139 161-12 60 212 0.281 0.284 0.293-0.025 0.100 0.357 21 36 19 1 10 31 1.556 3.071 3.132 3.733 3.787 4.145 74 103 142-13 50 181-0.076 0.241 0.356 0.888 0.474 0.763 13.0% 14.8% 16.8% -1.7% 4.2% 11.0% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 18.04% 9.25% 9.37% -0.67% 2.63% 8.62% 2006 2007 2008 2008E 2010E 2011E 7.51% 6.92% 6.92% -0.50% 1.81% 5.68% 51 74 103-12 60 212 12.55% 10.66% 8.28% -0.24% 3.19% 9.54% 8 21 0 0 0 0 12 26 34 128 201 208 68.44% 23.03% 21.15% -13.90% 64.27% 38.25% 8 19 4 21 17 22 EBIT 79.01% 30.43% 2.08% ####### ####### 229.50% -99-53 31 313-38 -56 43.63% 39.75% 37.43% N/A N/A 258.70% -20 88 172 450 240 386 30.64% 51.81% 37.39% 22.69% 11.05% 14.21% -170-235 -362-260 -103-104 0 0 0-1 0 0 87.1 73.6 44.3 75.0 75.0 75.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 175.3 138.5 111.0 110.0 110.0 110.0-170 -235-362 -261-103 -104 56.2 30.9 35.5 102.0 102.0 102.0 0 0 581 391-23 0 246.4 244.6 433.3 679.9 369.8 234.2 165 190-246 -266 0 1 4 0-50 -23-27 -32 97.11% 3.38% 9.39% -19.09% -23.13% -32.29% 169 190 285 102-50 -31 EBIT 6.0 9.0 8.8-0.4 4.8 14.5-21 43 95 291 87 252 56.35% 23.48% 23.29% 22.40% 28.79% 31.01% 28
IGBT 612 20% 612 10%20% 612-10%10% 612 10%20% 612 20% 36 5% 36-5%5% 36 5% 29