* 38 2 2014 3 Vol. 38 No. 2 March 2014 52 Population Research 2030 100070 Changes and Challenges of Labour Supply in China in the Context of Population Ageing Tong Yufen Abstract China is experiencing an accelerated aging process. Population aging brings not only the changes of the size and proportion of the elderly population but the corresponding changes of the other age groups especially of the labor-age population group which has more profound and direct impact on the society and economy. This study uses primarily the United Nations latest population forecasting results to analyze the challenges and possible impacts of aging on labor supplies of the labor market in China. This study shows that although aging would cause a decline in the working-age population the occurrence of which would be slow before 2030 however the young labor force would experience a rapid decline. In addition the aging of the labor force itself as well as the increasing degree of aging in rural areas call for extra attention suggesting that it is necessary to prepare relevant policies in advance. Keywords Population Aging Labor Market Labor Supply Author Tong Yufen is Porfessor Population and Economics Institute Capital University of Economics and Business Beijing 100070. Email tongyufen7017@ 126. com * 本文为北京市属高等学校创新团队建设与教师职业发展计划项目 ( 项目号 : IDHT20130523) 的阶段性成果
2 53 1 1999 13 2011 65 9. 12% 70 2006 2009 2010 2010 2011 2 2005 2006 2012 2013 1 40 65 40 65 2030 65 2. 3 2050 3. 31 1 Figure 1 1 Trends in Population Aging Index in China under Different Scenarios 资料来源 : 根据联合国经济和社会事务部 2013 年发布的 世界人口展望 : 2012 年修订版 相关 数据整理 ( http: / /esa. un. org /unpd /wpp /Excel-Data /population. htm) 1 联合国人口预测方案基于不同情况, 设定了四种不同生育方案, 其中高方案假定总和生育率从当前的 1. 91 提高到 2050 年的 2. 31, 中方案从当前的 1. 66 提高到 1. 8, 低方案则从 1. 41 进一步降为 1. 31, 最后一个方案假定生育率保持 1. 61 始终不变
54 38 2030 15% 17% 2050 2 ~ 3 27% 20% 2. 1 2030 15 ~ 64 16 16 ~ 59 16 ~ 55 15 ~ 64 2012 2015 2030 0. 1% ~ 0. 2% 2015 2030 89 180 270 192 2030 10. 01 9. 88 9. 74 9. 86 2030 286 690 1107 813 2050 9. 48 8. 49 7. 53 8. 23 2010 93% 84% 73% 81% 15 ~ 20 20 1 Table 1 1 15 ~ 64 Working-age Population aged 15 to 64 under Different Fertility Scenarios 年份 高方案 中方案 低方案 生育率不变 2015 101452 101452 101452 101452 2020 100395 100395 100395 100395 2025 100216 100216 100216 100216 2030 100123 98757 97391 98578 2035 98509 95140 91772 94615 2040 96499 90945 85390 89795 2045 96069 88483 80905 86551 2050 94769 84948 75255 82314 资料来源 : 同图 1
2 55 2. 2 2012 15 ~ 24 25 ~ 44 2035 45 ~ 64 2040 46% 2 2 Table 2 Proportion of Different Age Groups of Woking-age Population under the Medium Fertility Scenario of UN Projections % 年龄段 ( 岁 ) \ 年份 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 15 ~ 24 18. 8 15. 9 16. 2 17. 7 18. 4 17. 5 16. 4 16. 4 25 ~ 44 44. 2 43. 6 42. 3 40. 1 36. 5 36. 3 37. 6 38. 9 45 ~ 64 37. 0 40. 5 41. 5 42. 2 45. 1 46. 2 46. 0 44. 8 资料来源 : 同图 1 30 44 25 ~ 44 3 Table 3 3 Population Size of Different Age Groups of Labor Force under the Medium Fertility Scenario of UN Projections 年龄段 ( 岁 ) \ 年份 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 15 ~ 19 82604. 51 77816. 27 90588. 95 75013. 67 69223. 37 20 ~ 24 107827 82147. 94 84465. 9 84153. 63 69774. 48 25 ~ 29 133206. 6 107276. 7 76965. 67 89771. 96 74297. 11 30 ~ 34 104616. 3 132633. 3 81312. 29 83707. 69 83466. 96 35 ~ 39 93629. 22 104113. 2 106384. 9 76318. 87 89161. 31 40 ~ 44 117516. 3 93030. 15 131434. 1 80614. 74 83106. 77 45 ~ 49 119760. 4 116389. 2 102693. 8 105191. 1 75571. 64 50 ~ 54 100504. 3 117919. 5 91006. 39 129086. 4 79381. 42 55 ~ 59 78300. 25 97885. 09 112189. 5 99531. 35 102445. 6 60 ~ 64 76554. 74 74742. 72 110528. 5 86055. 11 123046 65 + 132457. 3 167692. 1 235084. 3 316725. 5 331314. 4 合计 1146977 1171646 1222654 1226170 1180789 资料来源 : 同图 1
56 38 2. 3 80 86. 95% 90 4050 90 84. 16% 2000 82. 35% 2010 77. 37% 22 ~ 24 2 2000 2010 U 40 Figure 2 2 Labor Participation Rate of Different Age Groups 资料来源 : 根据第五次和第六次人口普查资料 ( www. stats. gov. cn) 中经济活动人口数据和 劳动年龄人口计算而得 2006 PR t = j i = 1 s i t PR i t PR t t 1
2 57 PR i t t i s i t t i 1 2020 ~ 2030 2015 ~ 2030 2. 42 2050 3. 2 3 Figure 3 3 Decline of Labor Participation Rate Resulting from Labor Force Aging 资料来源 : 根据表 3 数据计算得到 2. 4 2010 65 7. 68% 7. 97% 10. 07% 15 ~ 64 4. 69 70. 78% 8 4 Table 4 4 Population Age Structure of Urban and Rural Areas 年龄段 城镇 乡村 规模 ( 万人 ) 比重 ( % ) 规模 ( 万人 ) 比重 ( % ) 0 ~ 14 9430. 97 14. 08 12701. 30 19. 16 15 ~ 64 52344. 17 78. 12 46911. 94 70. 78 65 + 5225. 42 7. 80 6671. 62 10. 07 资料来源 : 根据全国第六次人口普查资料 ( www. stats. gov. cn) 整理并计算得到 2012 52. 6% 70% ~ 80% 6. 4 47. 4% 1 这里主要是用于观察人口年龄结构变化的后果
58 38 2. 3 1. 6 4 15 ~ 64 14 ~ 24 10265. 3 25 ~ 44 19842. 92 3. 01 44 ~ 64 6671. 62 1. 88 2030 1. 5 2011 2. 5 2010 15 ~ 64 9. 66 10. 88 7. 97 4 Figure 4 4 Average Number of Years of Schooling of Labor Force by Residence 资料来源 : 根据全国第六次人口普查资料 ( www. stats. gov. cn) 整理并计算得到 5 15 ~ 64 8. 34 9. 51
2 59 Figure 5 5 Changes of Average Number of Years of Schooling of Labor Force in Different Age Groups 资料来源 : 根据全国第六次人口普查资料 ( www. stats. gov. cn) 整理并计算 3 1 20 20 2030 2 20 20 3 4 20 80 60 5
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