Morning Research Department Table of Contents 目录 5 August 2016 News Focus 新闻焦点 Industry and Company Focus 行业和公司焦点 HKEx (00388 HK): Published Market Highlights for July, 2016 港交所 (00388 HK): 公布 2016 年 7 月市场概况 Modern Land (01107 HK): Contracted Sales Increased 71.1% YoY to RMB9,031.84 Mn During Jan.-Jul. 2016 当代置业 (01107 HK): 2016 年 1-7 月合约销售同比升 71.1% 至 90.32 亿元人民币 Evergrande (03333 HK): Acquired 4.68% of the Total Issued Share Capital of Vanke 中国恒大 (03333 HK): 收购万科已发行股本总额的 4.68% Melco Crown Entertainment (MPEL US): 2Q16 EBITDA was 1.2% Below Consensus Forecast 新濠博亚娱乐 (MPEL US): 2016 年 2 季度 EBITDA 低于市场预期 1.2% MGM China (02282 HK): 2Q16 Adjusted EBITDA Topped Market Expectations by 4.1% 美高梅中国 (02282 HK): 2016 年 2 季度经调整后的 EBITDA 高于市场预期 4.1% Latest Reports 最新报告摘要 EPS Est. Company Name 公司名称 Code 代码 Title 标题 TP 目标价 Chg 变动 Rating 评级 Chg 变动 Change? 盈利预测 是否改变 Brilliance Auto 01114 HK En Route to Recovery, Accumulate HK$10.62 -- Accumulate -- Y 华晨汽车 01114 HK 在复苏的过程, 收集 HK$10.62 -- 收集 -- 是 Appendices:Chinese Version of the Industry and Company Focus, Latest Reports. 后附 : 行业和公司焦点, 最新报告摘要中文版 See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 11
HSI Performance HSCEI Performance 29,000 16,000 27,000 25,000 14,000 12,000 23,000 21,000 19,000 17,000 Aug/15 Nov/15 Feb/16 May/16 Aug/16 Source: Bloomberg 10,000 8,000 6,000 Aug/15 Nov/15 Feb/16 May/16 Aug/16 Source: Bloomberg News Focus (Gary Ching) 新闻焦点 ( 程嘉伟 ) The BoE decided to cut the Bank rate from 0.50 % to 0.25%, in line with market consensus. Market expects that BoE will have further rate cut before the end of this year. The total stock of asset purchase scheme for UK government bonds is expanded from 375 billion pounds to 435 billion pounds, equivalent to 16% increment, beat market expectation of keeping asset purchase scheme unchanged. Also, BoE will start to purchase UK corporate bonds up to 10 billion pounds and launch a 4-year Term Funding Scheme (TFS) to provide funding for banks at interest rates close to Bank rate, so that it could lower corporate s refinancing cost and help banks to resolve earning pressure from rate cut. BoE keeps 2016 economic growth forecast at 2% unchanged, but sharply reduces the 2017 forecast from 2.3% to 0.8%, and 2018 forecast from 2.3% to 1.8%. In conclusion, the strength of the stimulus was higher than market expectation, which will provide positive support to the market in the short term. However, negotiation between the UK and the EU will bring uncertainties to global markets in the coming future. 英国央行昨日宣布基准利率由 0.50% 下调至 0.25%, 符合市场预期, 市场预期今年年底前英国央行将再次减息 购买政府债券规模由 3,750 亿英镑扩大至 4,350 亿英镑, 增幅达 16%, 超出市场对量化宽松政策维持不变的预期 此外, 英国央行将在今年 9 月开始 18 个月内, 购买 100 亿英镑企业债及向银行提供 1 千亿英镑 4 年期低息贷款 (TFS), 进一步降低企业融资成本和缓解减息对银行业的盈利压力 英国央行维持 2016 年经济增长在 2% 不变, 但 2017 年则由 2.3% 大幅下调至 0.8%, 及 2018 年由 2.3% 下降至 1.8% 英国央行这次加码宽松力度比市场预期高, 短期内为市场带来正面支持, 但未来英国与欧盟的谈判结果, 将为环球市场带来不确定性 Newly Published Key Economic Data for China, US and Europe 中美欧最新公布的重要经济数据 Country 国家 U.S. 美国 U.S. 美国 Indicator 指标名称 Factory Orders mom, SA 经季调工厂订单环比增速 Durable Goods New Orders mom, SA 经季调耐用品订单环比增速 Source:U.S. Census Bureau,Bloomberg. 数据来源 : 美国人口普查局 彭博 Data Period 数据期间 June 6 月 June 6 月 Current Value 当期值 MoM / QoQ 环比变动 YoY 同比变动 Market Consensus 市场一致预期 (1.5%) (0.3ppts) (3.7ppts) (1.9%) (3.9%) (1.1ppts) (8.0ppts) (4.0%) See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 11
Industry and Company Focus HKEx (00388 HK): Published Market Highlights for July, 2016 Analyst: Shirley Gu What happened: The Company published market highlights for July with key statistics as below: Jan.-Jul. Average daily turnover (ADT), cash market (bn HKD) 66.7 (46.8%) Average daily volume (ADV), derivative market ( 000) 768,224 (6.0%) Fund raising through IPO (bn HKD) 65.4 (54.6%) Total equity fund raising (bn HKD) 174.9 (77.8%) Number of newly listed companies 63 (8.7%) Market cap (bn HKD), month-end 24,054.5 (9.9%) Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International Comments and views: Key operating statistics is below expectations. For the single month of July, ADT and ADV recorded a yoy decrease rate of 51.0% and 20.4% respectively, still reflecting the high base last year. Although trading activities are likely to keep at current unexcited levels in the short term, given the shrinking monthly trading turnover starting in Aug. 2015, we expect both ADT and ADV to record narrowing yoy decline in an accelerating pace during the rest of the year. There is even chance that yoy growth rates to turn positive in late 2016. On the lack of large IPOs this year, IPO fund raising are less likely to record positive yoy growth, but is expected to recover with market stabilizing and confidence improving. Investment suggestion: HKEx s share price rebounded with the market during the past few days and SZ-HK Connect remains as the catalyst. HKEx will announce its 1H16 financial results on Aug. 10 and we expect bottom-line earnings to record yoy retreat given the declining trading activities on both HK market and LME. We will review the TP and maintain accumulate rating. yoy Modern Land (01107 HK): Contracted Sales Increased 71.1% YoY to RMB9,031.84 Mn During Jan.-Jul. 2016 Analyst: Van Liu What happened: Modern Land ( the Company ) has announced its Jul. contracted sales as follows: Currency (Mn RMB) YoY MoM Unit (Sq.m) YoY MoM Jul. Contracted Sales Jul. Contracted ASP (RMB/sq.m) 1,581.20 73.4% -22.3% Jul. Contracted GFA Sold 9,491 7.3% -24.0% 165,235 63.0% 2.8% Jan. - Jul. Contracted Sales 9,031.84 71.1% n.a. Jan. - Jul. Contracted GFA Sold 823,924 41.9% n.a. Jan. - Jul. Contracted ASP (RMB/sq.m) Source: the Company. 10,802 21.2% n.a. Comments and Views: The contracted sales exhibited strong growth and recorded a 73.4% YoY See the last page for disclaimer Page 3 of 11
increase in Jul. 2016. This is in line with our expectations. The Company has achieved 60.2% of its 2016 annual sales target. The property market is likely to extend the recovery momentum. Therefore, we think the Company s 2016 sales target to be achievable. Investment suggestion: The Company's contracted sales are expected to maintain fast growth. The Company has increased its land reserves in tier-1 and tier-2 cities. In addition, we believe the Company s updated energy-saving and heating and cooling systems should provide a higher premium on its products while air pollution becomes worse in Mainland China. Recently, the Company s share price slumped down. Nevertheless, we see that the Company still represents a benign fundamental and its valuation is low. Therefore, we maintain the Company s investment rating as Buy and the target price is HK$2.26, which implies a 35% discount to its 2016E NAV and also implies 5.1x underlying 2016 PER and 1.0x 2016 PBR. Evergrande (03333 HK): Acquired 4.68% of the Total Issued Share Capital of Vanke Analyst: Van Liu What happened: Evergrande ( the Company ) announces that up to 4 Aug. 2016, through a subsidiary, has acquired 516,870,628 Vanke A shares, representing approximately 4.68% of the total issued share capital of Vanke. The aggregate consideration for this acquisition was RMB9,110,220,389.30. Comments and Views: The acquisition cost per share was estimated to be approximately RMB17.63. In 2015, the net profit of Vanke was RMB25,949,438,000. The net asset value of Vanke as at 31 Dec. 2015 was RMB136,309,617,000. We estimate that this acquisition imply PBR and PER of 1.4x and 7.5x, respectively. In addition, during Jan. to Jul. 2016, Vanke s contracted sales exhibited strong growth and recorded RMB217.51 bn, up by 62.5% YoY. Therefore, we think this acquisition is not demanding and may bring some investment gains as well. Investment suggestion: The Company will still maintain a weak balance sheet due to high levels of net gearing ratio and debt scale. Nevertheless, contracted sales should maintain strong growth. The Company also completed its diversified business distribution. Funding costs are likely to decline further. The Company s current investment rating is Accumulate and the target price is HK$5.52, which implies a 54% discount to its 2016E NAV and also implies 6.4x underlying 2016 PER and 1.1x 2016 PBR. Melco Crown Entertainment (MPEL US): 2Q16 EBITDA was 1.2% Below Consensus Forecast Analyst: Noah Hudson What happened: The Company posted its 2Q16 results. Key 2Q16 fundamentals are as follows: (US$) yoy% (US$) Revenue 1,070.4 million 16.8% DPS 0.0183 Adjusted Property EBITDA 245.3 million 19.7% Shareholders Profit 30.7 million 27.0% Source: the Company. Net revenue for 2Q16 increased 16.8% YoY to US$1,070.4 million. Adjusted property EBITDA increased 19.7% YoY to US$245.3 million. Net income increased 27.0% YoY to US$30.7 million and diluted earnings per ADS was US$0.06, up 20.0% YoY. The 16.8% YoY increase in net revenue was primarily attributable to the net revenue generated by Studio City, which started operations on 27 October 2015, and the increase in casino revenues at City of Dreams Manila, partially offset by lower casino revenues at City of Dreams and Altira Macau. The 19.7% YoY improvement in adjusted property EBITDA was mainly attributable to the contribution from newly-opened Studio City and fully-operating City of Dreams Manila. See the last page for disclaimer Page 4 of 11
Comments and Views: Net revenue, adjusted property EBITDA and earnings per ADR were 0.5%, 1.2% and 22.8% below Bloomberg consensus forecasts, respectively. The Company's adjusted property EBITDA margin increased slightly from 22.4% in 2Q15 and 22.5% in 1Q16 to 22.9% in 2Q16, and was in-line with the 22.8% we had last forecast. Investment suggestion: The Company's net revenue and adjusted property EBITDA were both basically in-line with expectations. Our current investment rating is "Reduce" with target price of US$11.80. We believe the Company's casinos, including the relatively new Studio City, will have a tough time in 2H16 as new competitors come on stage, starting with Wynn Palace, which is scheduled to open on 22 August. MGM China (02282 HK): 2Q16 Adjusted EBITDA Topped Market Expectations by 4.1% Analyst: Noah Hudson What happened: The Company posted its 2Q16 results. Key 2Q16 fundamentals are as follows: (HK$) yoy% (HK$) Revenue 3,507 million -18.7% DPS 0.119 Adjusted EBITDA 1,034 million -10.0% EPS n.a. n.a. Source: the Company. MGM China s net revenue was HK$3,507 million, an 18.7% YoY decrease. Adjusted EBITDA was HK$1,034 million, down 10.0% YoY, including US$8 million of license fee expense in the current quarter compared to US$10 million in license fees in the prior year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA margin increased by 2.6 ppt YoY to 26.4% as a result of an increase in main floor table games mix and continuous efforts to reduce costs. Comments and Views: The Company s revenue was just 0.6% below our forecast and was 5.0% below Bloomberg consensus forecast. Adjusted EBITDA was 12.1% above our forecast and 4.1% above Bloomberg consensus forecast. Operating income was HK$677 million, down 15.6% YoY but up 3.3% QoQ. Main floor table games revenue decreased 3% YoY. VIP table games revenue decreased 33% YoY due to a decrease in turnover of 28%, and hold percentage decreased to 3.1% in the current year quarter, compared to 3.2% in the prior year quarter. Investment suggestion: Our current investment rating is "Neutral" with a target price of HK$9.90. As the Company's adjusted EBITDA was higher than we had expected, we will most likely increase our earnings forecast and target price in our next Company Report. See the last page for disclaimer Page 5 of 11
Latest Reports Brilliance Auto (01114 HK): En Route to Recovery, Accumulate Rating: Accumulate 6-18m TP: HK$10.62 Analyst: Toliver Ma Report Date: 2016-08-04 Summary Vehicle sales of Brilliance BMW are expected to recover in 2016 to 2018. The Company has been investing in new facilities to increase capacity and degree of localization. New localized vehicle models are coming out in 2016-2018 and should support sales growth and defend margins. We expect BMW sales to increase 7.2%, 10.7% and 16.9% yoy in 2016 to 2018. The increase in localized products will stimulate net margin and we forecast Brilliance BMW's margin to improve gradually to 8.6%, 9.3% and 9.5% respectively in 2016 to 2018. Vehicle sales of Jinbei are expected to remain low in 2016 to 2018. We expect the minibus business to remain sluggish due to the underperforming market segment. While the potential of Huasong 7 (MPV) are is yet to be seen, we are rather bearish for about this product given that the YTD sales in 2016 are still low. We expect single- digit growth of 5.5%, 3.6% and 4.7% in 2016 to 2018 for Jinbei s revenue, of 5.5%, 3.6% and 4.7% in 2016 to 2018. The worst is over and recovery is expected, we give an investment rating of Accumulate. We expect sales growth of Brilliance BMW to gradually recover in 2017 and 2018 when new models roll out. The current valuation of the Company is lower than its historical average due to lower-than-expected sales growth of Brilliance BMW in 2015. We set TP at HK$10.62, representing 11.8x 2016 PER, 10.1x 2017 PER, 1.9x 2016 PBR and 1.7x 2017 PBR. Chinese Translation 中文翻译 行业和公司焦点 港交所 (00388 HK): 公布 2016 年 7 月市场概况分析员 : 古乔艺 事件描述 : 公司发布 7 月份市场概况, 关键数据如下 : 1-7 月 同比 现货市场日均成交 ( 十亿港元 ) 66.7 (46.8%) 衍生品市场日均成交 ( 千张 ) 768,224 (6.0%) IPO 集资 ( 十亿港元 ) 65.4 (54.6%) 总股份集资 ( 十亿港元 ) 174.9 (77.8%) 新上市公司数量 63 (8.7%) 市值 ( 十亿港元 ) 24,054.5 (9.9%) 资料来源 : 公司 国泰君安国际 观点评论 : 关键经营指标低于预期 7 月单月来看, 现货和衍生品日均成交分别同比下跌 51.0% 和 20.4%, 仍反映出去年高基数影响 尽管交易活动短期可能维持在当前不够理想的水平, 但去年 8 月份起月度成 交额萎缩的背景下, 预期上述两项成交指标同比跌幅将在年内余下时间加快收窄 同比变动在 2016 年底 甚至可能转为正数 年内缺乏大型新股的背景下, 新股集资难以实现正增长, 但预期将随着市场企稳和信 心改善而恢复 See the last page for disclaimer Page 6 of 11
投资建议 : 港交所股价近期跟随大市反弹, 深港通继续是一项催化剂 公司将于 8 月 10 日公布中期业绩, 由于香港和 LME 成交均下降, 预期纯利将同比倒退 我们将检讨目标价, 维持 收集 评级 当代置业 (01107 HK): 2016 年 1-7 月合约销售同比升 71.1% 至 90.32 亿元人民币 分析员 : 刘斐凡 事件描述 : 当代置业公布了 7 月合约销售情况, 如下 : 货币单位 ( 百万人民 币 ) 同比 环比 单位 ( 平方 米 ) 同比 环比 7 月合约销售额 1,581.20 73.4% -22.3% 7 月合约销售 面积 165,235 63.0% 2.8% 7 月合约销售均 价 ( 人民币 / 平方 米 ) 9,491 7.3% -24.0% 1-7 月合约销售额 9,031.84 71.1% n.a. 1-7 月合约销 售面积 823,924 41.9% n.a. 1-7 月合约销售均价 ( 人民币 / 平方米 ) 资料来源 : 公司 10,802 21.2% n.a. 观点评论 : 合约销售展现强劲增长并在 2016 年 7 月录得同比增长 73.4% 这符合我们的预期 公司完成了其 2016 年全年销售目标的 60.2% 房地产市场很有可能延续复苏势头 因此, 我们认为公司 2016 年销售目标是可实现的 投资建议 : 公司合约销售将保持快速增长 公司增加了其在一二线城市的土地储备 另外, 我们认为公司升级后的节能和加热冷却系统应该能够为其产品提供更高的溢价, 特别是在中国大陆空气污染变得更严重的时候 近期, 公司股价大幅下滑 尽管如此, 公司依旧展现了一个良好的基本面且其估值较低 因此, 我们维持公司投资评级为 买入, 目标价为 2.26 港元, 相当于其 2016 年 NAV 有 35% 的折让, 也相当于 5.1 倍 2016 年的核心市盈率和 1.0 倍 2016 年的市净率 中国恒大 (03333 HK): 收购万科已发行股本总额的 4.68% 分析员 : 刘斐凡 事件描述 : 中国恒大 ( 公司 ) 宣布截止 2016 年 8 月 4 日, 通过其附属公司, 已收购 516,870,628 股万科 A 股, 约相当于万科已发行股本总额的 4.68% 这次收购的总代价为人民币 9,110,220,389.30 元 观点评论 : 每股收购代价经测算约为人民币 17.63 元 在 2015 年, 万科的净利润为人民币 25,949,438,000 截止 2015 年 12 月 31 日万科的净资产为人民币 136,309,617,000 元 我们测算这次收购隐含的市净率和市盈率分别为 1.4 倍和 7.5 倍 另外, 在 2016 年 1-7 月, 万科的合约销售展现了强劲增长, 录得人民币 2,175.1 亿元, 同比增长 62.5% 因此我们认为这次收购并不贵, 也可能带来一定投资收益 投资建议 : 由于较高水平的净资产负债率和债务规模, 公司仍将会维持一个弱的资产负债表 尽管如此, See the last page for disclaimer Page 7 of 11
合约销售应会保持强劲增长 公司也完成其多元化业务布局 融资成本很有可能进一步降低 公司目前投 资评级为 收集, 目标价为 5.52 港元, 相当于其 2016 年 NAV 有 54% 的折让, 也相当于 6.4 倍 2016 年的核心市盈率和 1.1 倍 2016 年的市净率 新濠博亚娱乐 (MPEL US): 2016 年 2 季度 EBITDA 低于市场预期 1.2% 分析员 :Noah Hudson 事件描述 : 公司公布 2016 年 2 季度业绩 2016 年 2 季度主要指标表现如下 : ( 美元 ) 同比 % ( 美元 ) 收入 10.704 亿 16.8% 每股股息 0.0183 经调整物业 EBITDA 2.453 亿 19.7% 股东净利 30.7 百万 27.0% 资料来源 : 公司 净收入为 10.704 亿美元, 同比增长 16.8% 经调整物业 EBITDA 为 2.453 亿美元, 同比增长 19.7% 净利润为 30.7 百万美元, 同比增长 27.0%, 每份 ADR 净利同比增长 20.0% 至 0.06 美元 公司净收入同比增长 16.8% 幅度主要由于 2015 年 10 月 27 日开幕的新濠影汇做出的净收入贡献以及新濠天地马尼拉做出的更高净收入贡献 部分被新濠天地以及澳门新濠锋比较低的收入抵消 公司的经调整物业 EBITDA 同比增长 19.7% 幅度主要由于新开的新濠影汇以及全面经营新濠天地马尼拉做出的贡献 观点评论 : 净收入 经调整物业 EBITDA 和每份全面摊薄 ADS 净利分别低于彭博一致预期 0.5% 1.2% 和 22.8% 公司调整后的物业 EBITDA 利润率在 2016 年 2 季度为 22.9%, 略高于 2015 年 2 季度的 22.4% 以及 2016 年 1 季度的 22.5%, 并且符合我们的 22.8% 预期 投资建议 : 公司的净收入以及经调整 EBITDA 基本符合预期 我们目前投资评级为 减持, 目标价为 11.80 美元 我们认为今年下半年, 因为新对手将出台, 第一家就是计划在 8 月 22 日开幕的永利皇宫, 公司的赌场, 包括新濠影汇, 将面对更艰苦竞争环境 美高梅中国 (02282 HK): 2016 年 2 季度经调整后的 EBITDA 高于市场预期 4.1% 分析员 :Noah Hudson 事件描述 : 公司公布 2016 年 2 季度的业绩 2016 年 2 季度主要指标表现如下 : ( 港元 ) 同比 % ( 港元 ) 收入 3,507 百万 -18.7% 每股股息 0.119 经调整 EBITDA 1,034 百万 -10.0% 每股净利 n.a. n.a. 资料来源 : 公司 美高梅中国的净收入金额为 3,507 百万港元, 同比减少 18.7% 经调整 EBITDA 为 1,034 百万港元, 同比下降 10.0%, 包括 2016 年 2 季度 800 万美元的牌照费开支, 而去年 2 季度有 1,000 万美元的牌照费开支 经调整 EBITDA 收益率同比增加 2.6 个百分点至 26.4%, 乃由于主场地赌台组合增加及持续致力减低成本所致 观点评论 : 公司的收入略低于我们的预期 0.6%, 低于彭博一致预期 5.0% 经调整 EBITDA 高于我们的预期 12.1%, 高于彭博一致预期 4.1% 经营收入为 677 百万港元, 同比下降 15.6%, 环比增长 3.3% 主场地赌台收益比去年季度减少 3% 贵宾赌台收益减少 33%, 乃由于转码数比去年季度减少 28%, 而本年季度的赢率减少至 3.1%, 去年季度则为 3.2% See the last page for disclaimer Page 8 of 11
投资建议 : 我们目前投资评级是 中性, 目标价为 9.90 港元 由于公司的经调整 EBITDA 高于我们预期, 我们可能在下次的公司报告中上调盈利预期以及目标价 最新报告 华晨汽车 (01114 HK): 在复苏的过程, 收集 评级 : 收集 6-18m 目标价 : HK$10.62 分析员 : 马守彰 报告日期 : 2016-08-04 报告摘要 华晨宝马的汽车销量有望在 2016 年至 2018 年恢复 为提高产能和国产化程度, 公司不断投资新生产设施 新国产车型将在 2016-2018 年期间推出并支持销售增长和捍卫利润率 我们预计宝马销量在 2016 年至 2018 年分别同比增加 7.2%,10.7% 和 16.9% 更多的国产化产品的增加将改善净利润率, 我们预计华晨宝马利润率在 2016 年到 2018 年将逐步提高, 分别为 8.6%,9.3% 和 9.5% 预计金杯车辆销量在 2016 年至 2018 年将持续在较低水平 因轻型客车细分市场增长持续缓慢, 我们预计该业务表现继续保持平淡 虽然华颂 7(MPV) 的潜力还有待观察, 我们对该产品较为悲观, 因在 2016 年至今的销售仍然较低 我们预期金杯收入在 2016 年至 2018 年呈个位数增长, 分别为 5.5%,3.6% 和 4.7% 最坏的已经过去及预期复苏, 我们给予 收集 的投资评级 我们预计华晨宝马的销售增长在 2017 和 2018 年在逐步推出新车型时将慢慢复苏 公司目前估值低于其历史平均水平, 由于华晨宝马在 2015 年的销售增长较预期低 我们给予 10.62 港元的目标价, 相当于 11.8 倍 2016 年市盈率和 10.1 倍 2017 年市盈率,1.9 倍 2016 年市净率和 1.7 倍 2017 年市净率 See the last page for disclaimer Page 9 of 11
Research Department 研究部 Grace Liu 刘谷 Head of Research, Market Strategy, Petrochemicals 主管, 市场策略 石化 liugu@gtjas.com (86755) 23976698 / (852) 2509 7516 Noah Hudson Noah Hudson Consumer (Hotels), Gaming 消费 ( 酒店 ) 博彩 noah.hudson@gtjas.com (86755) 23976684 Gary Wong 黄家玮 Environmental Protection, Infrastructure 环保 基建 gary.wong@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2616 Leo Wu 吴逸超 Coal, Electricity 煤炭 电力 wuyichao@gtjas.com (86755) 23976871 Ray Zhao 赵睿 Conglomerate, E-commerce 综合 电子商务 zhaorui@gtjas.com (86755) 23976755 Shirley Gu 古乔艺 Market Strategy 市场策略 guqiaoyi@gtjas.com (86755) 23976718 Square Chui 徐惠芳 Futures 期货 square.chui@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2629 Kevin Guo 郭勇 Raw Materials, Gas 原材料 燃气 kevin.guo@gtjas.com (86755) 23976671 Ricky Lai 黎柏坚 Telecommunications, Internet 电信 互联网 ricky.lai@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2603 Dayton Wang 王庆鲁 Insurance, Fixed-income 保险 债券 dayton.wang@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5347 Richard Cao 曹柱 Banking 银行 caozhu013592@gtjas.com (86755) 23976870 Jun Zhu 朱俊杰 Clean Energy, Electric Equipment 清洁能源 电力设备 junjie.zhu@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 7592 Andrew Song 宋涛 Consumer (Retailing), Home Appliances 消费 ( 零售 ) 家电 andrew.song@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5313 Van Liu 刘斐凡 Property 房地产 liufeifan@gtjas.com (86755) 23976672 Sean Xiang 向宇豪 Machinery, Construction Materials 机械 建材 xiangyuhao@gtjas.com (86755) 23976725 Terry Hong 洪学宇 Consumer (Apparel) 消费 ( 服装 ) hongxueyu@gtjas.com (86755) 23976722 Toliver Ma 马守彰 Aviation, Automobiles & Components Spencer Fan 范明 Shipping & Logistics, Ports, Toll Roads 航空 汽车 toliver.ma@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5317 航运物流 港口 公路 fanming@gtjas.com (86755) 23976686 Johnny Wong 王俊浩 Research Assistant 研究助理 johnny.wong@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5348 Barney Wu 吴宇扬 Research Assistant 研究助理 wuyuyang@gtjas.com (86755) 23976680 Gary Ching 程嘉伟 Research Assistant 研究助理 gary.ching@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2665 Jake Wang 汪昌江 Research Assistant 研究助理 wangchangjiang@gtjas.com (86755) 23976675 Wiley Huang 黄重钧 Research Assistant 研究助理 wiley.huang@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5409 Danny Law 罗沛达 Research Assistant 研究助理 danny.law@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 7768 Esabella Zhao 赵舒蔓 Research Assistant, Translator 研究助理 翻译员 zhaoshuman013399@gtjas.com (86755) 23976681 Penny Pan 潘凌蕾 Secretary, Translator 秘书 翻译员 penny.pan@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2632 See the last page for disclaimer Page 10 of 11
Company Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index / NASDAQ Composite Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Buy Relative Performance >15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Accumulate Relative Performance is 5% to 15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral. Reduce Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sell Relative Performance <-15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sector Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index / NASDAQ Composite Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Outperform Relative Performance >5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral. Underperform Relative Performance <-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable. DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS (1) Except for Shenzhen International Holdings Limited (00152 HK), the Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Except for SMI Holdings Group Limited (00198 HK), China All Access (Holdings) Limited (00633 HK), Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited (01788 HK), Binhai Investment Company Limited (02886 HK) and Link Holdings Limited (08237 HK), Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4) Guotai Junan and its group companies have had investment banking relationships with Huaneng Renewables- H shares (00958 HK) / Hengdeli (03389 HK) / China Dredging Environment Protection (00871 HK) / AviChina Industry & Technology- H shares (02357 HK) / China Power (02380 HK) / Sinotruk (03808 HK) / Xiao Nan Guo Restaurants (03666 HK) / China Aoyuan Property (03883 HK) / SMI Holdings Group (00198 HK) / Anhui Conch Cement- H shares (00914 HK) / Chanjet Information Technology- H shares (01588 HK) / Tianyun International (06836 HK) / China U-Ton (06168 HK) / Huaneng Power- H shares (00902 HK) / Shanghai Electric- H shares (02727 HK) / China Wood Optimization (08099 HK) / 361 Degrees (01361 HK) / CECEP COSTIN New Materials (02228 HK) / Powerlong Real Estate (01238 HK) / Huishang Bank- H shares (03698 HK) / Bosideng (03998 HK) / WH Group (00288 HK) / China All Access (00633 HK) mentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports, including investment banking, investment services and etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales persons, dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 2016 Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited. All Rights Reserved. 27/F., Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza, 181 Queen s Road Central, Hong Kong. Tel.: (852) 2509-9118 Fax: (852) 2509-7793 Website: www.gtja.com.hk See the last page for disclaimer Page 11 of 11