2010 7 18 4 Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, July 2010, 18(4): 905 910 DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1011.2010.00905 * 刘彦随 1,2 刘 玉 1,2 郭丽英 3 (1. 100101; 2. 100101; 3. 100081) 全球气候呈现变暖的趋势, 对农业生产和粮食安全产生重大影响, 并成为当今全球环境变化关注的热点问题之一 本文采用文献综述与比较研究的方法, 系统分析了气候变化对光资源 温度 土壤质量和水环境等农业生产要素的影响机理, 探讨了气候变化对我国作物种植区域和种植制度 农作物病虫害 农业生产能力以及农业经济与管理等方面的实际影响, 通过梳理国外应对气候变化的主要农业战略, 提出新时期我国应对气候变化的农业可持续发展策略 农业生产粮食安全气候变化应对策略中国 : F329.9;S162.5 : A : 1671-3990(2010)04-0905-06 Impact of climatic change on agricultural production and response strategies in China LIU Yan-Sui 1,2, LIU Yu 1,2, GUO Li-Ying 3 (1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; 3. Institute of Natural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China) Abstract A number of studies indicate increasing global climate warming especially in recent decades. Climate warming greatly influences global agro-production and food security the focus of global environmental change. This paper proposes a structural and orientational framework for scientifically addressing climatic change impact on agro-production. Through literature review and comparative studies, the paper systematically summarizes influencing mechanisms and effect of climate warming on such agro-production factors as light, temperature, soil quality and water environment. The impact of climate warming on cultivation regions, cropping systems, crop pests, agro-production capacity, agro-economy and farm management is analyzed. Then, suitable climate-adapted agro-development strategies are put forward for different regions in China. The strategies are carefully selected from a repository of international tested climatic change countermeasures in agriculture at national or district level. Key words Agro-production, Food security, Climatic change, Response strategy, China (Received Nov. 11, 2009; accepted March 18, 2010) 1 气候变化的主要特点,, [1],, [2], [3] [4],, * (40871257, 40635029) (973 ) (2006CB400505) (1965~),, E-mail: liuys@igsnrr.ac.cn : 2009-11-11 : 2010-03-18
906 2010 18 [5] 2007 IPCC 4, 1906~2005 100, 0.74, 0.78±0.27, [5] [6 9] CO 2, 20~100 [10] 2020 1950s 1.68, [11] 21, 1.6~5, 1.5%~20%;, ;, [12] 1990s,,, (SARD) 2 气候变化对农业生产的影响,, ;, 2.1,, ( 1) 2.1.1,, [13], 2~3 [14] 2.1.2 0 ; 10 : 1951, Fig. 1 图 1 气候变化对农业生产的影响 Impacts of climatic change on agricultural production
4 : 907 10 0 [15] 1979~2005 10, ; 10 0~5 d, 0~5 d; 10 0~5 d [16] (GHG),,, 1961~2005 : 0 59.5 d 10a 1 ; 10, 0 [17], 2.1.3,,,, ;,, [18] C-N [19],,,, [20],, 2.1.4,, 15%, [21],,,, [22], [23] IPCC, ; ; 2.2 2.2.1,,,,,,,,, [21] 20 90,, [24] ;, [25] ; [26] 1.40 4.2%, 62.3% 39.2%, 24.2% 24.9%, 13.5% 35.9% [27] 2.2.2,, [28], [29] ;, [30], 1~2 ; 2.69, 3 [31] 2006~2007,, [32] 2.2.3 CO 2 [33] ;,, [34]
908 2010 18 [35] 1, 3%~10% 20, 4.5% [36],,, [37] ; CO 2 ; CO 2, 2.5%~12% [38] 2.2.4,, C 3, C 4 [13],,,, 1990~2007, 2 548 10 4 hm 2, 1 357 10 4 hm 2 ; 1 304 10 4 hm 2, 746 10 4 hm 2 2007, 407.2 10 4 hm 2, 186.5 [32], 3 应对气候变化的主要农业发展策略 3.1 (1),, : GHG, CO 2, ;, : 20~30,, (2), [39], CO 2, [40], ;, [41], GHG [42],,, GHG [40] (3) [43] [44],,,, [45] ;, [46] 3.2,, (1),,
4 : 909 (2), (3), [47], ( ), (4), ;,, ; ;,, 参考文献 [1],. [J]., 2009(3): 17 19 [2],. / [J]., 2002, 21(3): 324 341 [3]. [J]., 1996, 51(3): 202 212 [4],,,. [J]., 2009, 5(2): 71 78 [5],,,. (I): [J]., 2005, 1(1): 4 9 [6],,. 40 [J]., 2007, 27(4): 499 505 [7],,,. [J]., 2008, 24(3): 254 258 [8],,,. [J]., 2007, 23(5): 82 85 [9],,. 43 [J]., 2005, 23(2): 195 201 [10],,,. ( ): [J]., 2006, 2(1): 3 8 [11],,. [J]. :, 2003, 2(2): 16 20 [12],,. IPCC-AR4 21 [J]., 2008, 27(4): 787 799 [13],,,. [M]. :, 2003 [14],,,. [J]., 2009, 17(1): 115 119 [15],,,. 1978 10 [J]., 2008, 19(8): 1810 1816 [16],,. 45 [J]., 2009, 30(1): 19 24 [17],,,. [J]., 2009, 24(5): 934 944 [18],,. [J]., 2007, 26(2): 278 285 [19],,,. N [J]., 2007, 31(2): 252 261 [20] Liu Y S, Wang D W, Gao J. Land use/cover changes, the environment and water resources in northeast China[J]. Environmental Management, 2005, 36(5): 691 701 [21],,,. ( ): [J]., 2006, 2(2): 51 56 [22],,. [J]., 2003(2): 22 24 [23],. [J]., 2008, 44(4): 50 53 [24],,,. [J]., 2008, 17(3): 41 48 [25],,. [J]., 2005, 20(1): 119 125 [26],,. [J]., 2007, 27(5): 137 140 [27] Futang W. Impacts of climate change on cropping system and
910 2010 18 its implication for China[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 1997, 11(4): 407 415 [28],,,. [J]., 2005, 14(1): 90 97 [29]. [J]., 1997, 5(3): 45 48 [30],,. [J]., 2005, 19(4): 155 158 [31]. [J]., 1993, 14(1): 41 47 [32]. (2007 )[M]. :, 2008 [33] Miraglia M, Marvin H J P, Kleter G A. Climate change and food safety: An emerging issue with special focus on Europe[J]. Food and Chemical Toxicology, 2009, 47(5): 1009 1021 [34]. [J]., 2001, 16(1): 1 4 [35],,,. [J]., 2007, 12(5): 659 666 [36] You L Z, Rosegrant M W, Wood S, et al. Impact of growing season temperature on wheat productivity in China[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2009, 149(6/7): 1009 1014 [37],,,. [J]., 2008, 16(5): 1167 1172 [38] Chavas D R, Izaurralde R C, Thomson A M. Long-term climate change impacts on agricultural productivity in eastern China[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2009, 149(6/7): 1118 1128 [39] Del Grosso S J, Ojima D S, Parton W J, et al. Global scale DAYCENT model analysis of greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation strategies for cropped soils[j]. Global Planet Change, 2009, 67(1/2): 44 50 [40] Verge X P C, de Kimpe C, Desjardins R L. Agricultural production, greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation potential[j]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2007, 142(2/4): 255 269 [41] Hutchinson J J, Campbell C A, Desjardins R L. Some perspectives on carbon sequestration in agriculture[j]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2007, 142(2/4): 288 302 [42] Pathak H, Wassmann R. Introducing greenhouse gas mitigation as a development objective in rice-based agriculture: I. Generation of technical coefficients[j]. Agricultural Systems, 2007, 94(3): 807 825 [43] Bryan E, Deressa T T, Gbetibouo G A, et al. Adaptation to climate change in Ethiopia and South Africa: Options and constraints[j]. Environmental Science & Policy, 2009, 12(4): 413 426 [44] Ortiz R, Sayre K D, Govaerts B. Climate change: Can wheat beat the heat?[j]. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 2008, 126(1/2): 46 58 [45] Kabubo-Mariara J. Global warming and livestock husbandry in Kenya: Impacts and adaptations[j]. Ecological Economics, 2009, 68(7): 1915 1924 [46] Saavedra C, Budd W W. Climate change and environmental planning: Working to build community resilience and adaptive capacity in Washington State, USA[J]. Habitat International, 2009, 33(3): 246 252 [47] Liu H, Li X B, Fischer G. Study on the impacts of climate change on China s agriculture[j]. Climatic Change, 2004, 65(1/2): 125 148