002159 2007 8 3 5.68 16.3222.99 8000 5000 0/0 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 180.31 24.62 25.06 18.48 11.54 41.12 45.99 46.00 46.00 46.00 17.47 4.12 4.89 5.46 5.85 1.07 0.80 0.94 1.12 1.18 0.46 0.35 0.44 0.52 0.58 12 3 3000.00 A 1500.00 2084.40 1500.00 5.68 A 2007 2009 0.35 0.44 0.52 16.32 /22.99 / PE 16.32 /22.99 / 021-63411365 Emailyelf@htsec.com
002159 1... 2 1.... 3 1.1 A... 3 1.2... 3 2.... 4 2.1... 4 2.2... 4 2.3... 5 2.4... 9 3. IPO... 10 4....13 5. 16.32-22.99... 13 5.1 DCF... 13 5.2... 14 6....14... 16
002159 2 A 200720090.350.440.52 PE16.32/22.99/ 2008 2015100
002159 3 1. 1.1 A 1993 1 () 2004 2005 2006 72.63 73.65 68.92 5.65 5.81 4.88 18.26 17.29 21.38 3.46 3.25 4.82 100 100 100 1.2 5000 3000 8000 A 2 A A 5000.00 100.00 5000 62.50 4.42 0.09 4.42 0.06 1463.44 29.27 1463.44 18.29 1447.74 28.95 1447.74 18.10 2084.40 41.69 2084.40 26.05 (A ) 3000.000 37.50 5000.00 100.00 8000.00 100.00
002159 4 2. 2.1 2.2 1993 20 OITAF
002159 5 119 30 2.3 1 80% 2 4 2006 110 27.9% 3 2004 83 70 84.33 2005 86 75 87.21 2006 110 86 71.18
002159 6 2 1996 1996 38 2006 110 82.80% 10 3 5 1 2006 501 23.4% 14.6%2006 65 26.7% 20.9% 2 3 2005 12 4A 4 1 2006 49.73 33.38% 13960.75
002159 7 34.3% 6000.23 18.63% 380 22% 390.89 22.15% 2006 1011.10 23.33% 68.86 31.33% 11.77 46.64% 3409.38 44.62% 2, 3 150, 4 1 5821.52 14 473.21 11.9 2006 1677.25 15.46% 352.63 18.22% 1324.62 14.75% 2,,,, 3
002159 8 4 1 2006 700.51 12.1% 27.97 21.9% 477.56 9.8% 2960.01 3.8% 2,395.78 2.4% 564.23 10.6% 61.79% 679.57 38.4% 4426.85 7.4% 2 4A 500 2 3 10 20 7 1 2001 15 4000 2006 130 4.5 2 2 2005 ( ) 3
002159 9 25 4 1 40 2002 42 8600 2006 197 13.9 3.69 15.16 2 500 2.4 2006 2006 12 31 25.03 2% 0.40 556.3 10.33 351.48 50.94 300.54 2006 694.58 400 2500 21 50
002159 10 50 2008 2006 2006 12 31 2709.60 3. IPO 3000.00 A 1500.00 2084.40 1500.00 5.68 4 IPO () 2006 12 2008 6 2007 11 2008 7 12 1 4 4 9 8 11 12 2 4 2007 9 200501515 200614 20077 4990.00 4800.00 4970.00
002159 11 1 75 10 8 3099 13 2016 1890 10 16 1000 6 1400 9600 4-5 2000 5 1817.55 2 8.5 13.85 13.92 50 1036.95 694.76 2 1986 1996 132 320 2002 11 21 2004 4 10 1350.00
002159 12 2 4 18 780 1640 53 2980 2 303 600 75% 95% 6 2446.91 1 8.7 15.70 17.53 50 990.24 841.70 3 12 8 6 154 300 4 8 8 1490 4 1600 19ll 80 2000 10 20 2000 2001
002159 13 2003 32 6 2001 1.2 2006 5 50 7 2029.95 2.4 8.7 13.57 14.62 50 1084.90 726.88 4. IPO 2007 2009 0.35 0.44 0.52 5. 16.32-22.99 5.1 DCF (1) 2% (2) 25 (3) WACC 8 9%
002159 14 (4) beta 0.85 8 DCF g(%) 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 6.50 25.70 27.95 30.70 34.14 38.55 7.00 22.95 24.76 26.93 29.59 32.91 7.50 20.63 22.11 23.86 25.96 28.52 8.00 18.65 19.88 21.31 22.99 25.02 WACC(%) 8.50 16.94 17.97 19.15 20.53 22.16 9.00 15.45 16.32 17.31 18.45 19.78 9.50 14.14 14.88 15.71 16.67 17.77 10.00 12.98 13.61 14.32 15.13 16.06 10.50 11.94 12.49 13.10 13.79 14.57 WACC 8 9 2 16.32 /22.99 / 5.2 9 2007 EPS P/E() 0.43 50.00 0.30 43.00 0.45 41..56 0.30 32.50 0.40 40.37 41.48 PE 2008 4045 17.60 /19.80 / 6.
002159 15 2001 2010 95%2011 2032 75% 2011 20% 2004 2006 75% 405.05 475.46 529.03 2004 2006 30.67%38.72% 34.87% 2011 2001 2003 2004 2006 916.69 352.08 268.15 2011 95% 75% 16 1 2 3ERP 4
002159 16 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2005 2006 2007E 2008E P/E 18412 21174 24350 28002 P/B 10099 10587 12175 14001 P/S 7571 9740 11201 12881 EV/EBITDA 532 529 609 700 1 2541 2922 3360 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 5416 5343 6592 7743 1.37 0.43 0.42 0.41 EBIT 7038 6489 7489 8640 / 1.03 0.32 0.31 0.29 2336 1833 2324 3000 4.88 5.66 8.34 9.63 EBITDA 9374 8322 9813 11640 0.42 1.92 1.92 2.04-181 -181-181 -181 0.34 1.86 1.86 1.97 0 0 0 0 0.22 1.72 1.69 1.79 1354 1763 2175 2555 358 588 725 852 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 3704 2792 3491 4136 45.15 50.00 50.00 50.00 0.46 0.35 0.44 0.52 50.91 39.30 40.30 41.57 20.12 13.19 14.34 14.77 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 17.47 4.12 4.89 5.46 5730 46046 46876 51114 7.02 2.79 3.31 3.71 1423 2329 2678 3080 8.11 3.01 3.59 4.04 2121 1588 1826 2100 11163 51551 53207 58395 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 34944 41910 45542 46470 116.49 93.02 93.02 93.02 52786 100100 105352 111437 5.45 6.20 6.20 6.20 616 529 609 700 0.24 0.21 0.22 0.24 26608 26843 27678 28575 0.48 0.48 0.53 0.61 2480 2480 2480 2480 2480 2480 2480 2480 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 29025 29259 30094 30992 13.67 15.00 15.00 15.00 2563 3150 3876 4727 10.59 28.65 15.00 15.00 21199 67691 71382 75719 EBIT 73.95-7.80 15.42 15.36 21930 21930 21930 21930 EBITDA 45.99-11.22 17.91 18.62 4.24 8.46 8.92 9.46 180.31-24.62 25.06 18.47 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 3704 2792 3491 4136 2336 1833 2324 3000 568 1337 1318 1516 5344 6415 7549 8955 0 8859 5921 3897 0 0 0 0-23130 8859 5921 3897-4647 -9040-6101 -4078 28985-4014 103 3376 26798-4783 -499 2775 6150 0 0 0 0 43500 0 0-3214 42941-618 -639-2517 40316 830 4238 1.07 0.80 0.94 1.12
002159 17 2007 8 3 78 19 85 14 70 11 0 0 1 0 234 15 615 6515 6-55 6-5-15 6-15 65 655 65
002159 18 02163411619 wangym@htsec.com 02163411586 gaodd@htsec.com 02163411638 skwu@htsec.com 02163411374 luying@htsec.com 02163411380 chenmf@htsec.com 02163411376 dingpin@htsec.com 02163411393 kljiang@htsec.com 02163411373 zhangluan@htsec.com 02163411375 dengyong@htsec.com 02163411369 guqing@htsec.com 02163411366 lianmk@htsec.com 02163411392 liujin@htsec.com 02163411379 maying@htsec.com 02163411391 ymniu@htsec.com 02163411384 qiucc@htsec.com 02163411367 qiuzc@htsec.com 02163411370 yezg@htsec.com 02163411383 zhanwh@htsec.com 02163411394 zhaot@htsec.com 02163411382 longh@htsec.com 02163411362 liuyq@htsec.com 02163411359 panhw@htsec.com 02163411372 shuaih@htsec.com 02163411378 wangyh@htsec.com 02163411386 yug@htsec.com 02163411385 yanp@htsec.com 02163411377 yanghj@htsec.com 02163411365 yelf@htsec.com 02163411387 zhour@htsec.com 02163411330 fankx@htsec.com 02163411637 lml@htsec.com 02163411656 chenl@htsec.com 02163411652 zrchen@htsec.com 02163411651 wanghui@htsec.com 02163411657 xiey@htsec.com 02163411650 yujg@htsec.com 02163411364 chenjiuhong@htsec.com 02163411357 wuyiping@htsec.com 02163411799 huangzf@htsec.com
002159 19 02163411361 wangs@htsec.com 02163411789 zhangdy@htsec.com 02163411528 loujing@htsec.com 02163411501 huqian@htsec.com 02163411502 jiangjx@htsec.com 02163411516 zqyong@htsec.com 02163411525 shankj@htsec.com 02163411527 wuxx@htsec.com 02163411500 zhouj@htsec.com 02163411371 zghan@htsec.com 02163411329 hzh@htsec.com 02163411356 gaoqin@htsec.com 02163411355 huxm@htsec.com 02163411381 huangyu@htsec.com 02163411352 jiwj@htsec.com 689 11 02163411357 02163411363 www.htsec.com