33 4 2009 7 Vol1 33, No1 4 July 2009 22 Population Research :, 2000 1. 22,, 2003 2000 1. 4,,,,,,,,?,,,? 3 ( ) 1 1990,, 1990,,, 1. 5 1. 6, (,2004 ; Cai,2008 ; Ret herford, 2004 ;, 2004 ; Zhang and Zhao, 2006) ; 1. 8 (,2007 ;,2007 ; 3,, 08AR K001
4 23,2004),,, (2002), 2000, 2000, 1996 2000, (2002) 5 1208 (2004), 1997 2002, 2000 4 9 1996, 18. 94 % ; 0 3, 1018 2000 0 9 3014 : (1) ; (2) 100 % ; (3) 6 ; (4) 11 1 9 1 (2004) (3) 6, 6,,,,4 9 1996, 0 3 0 9 3014 (2003) (2004) 2000 4 16 3578, 4 9 2813 (2003) (2004) 41 % (2003) 100 %, 1995 (2003) (2007) 6, 9 10, 1988 1990 2003 1991 2000, 1991 2000,,1990 1. 7 1. 8 : : = =,, : (1) ; (2) ; (3),, 1990, 2,,, :,,,,, 7
24 33 ( ) 6 ;, 1990 ;, 1 2003 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 5 469,324 454,713 472,561 505,212 501,579 6 8,339,123 8,752,608 8,870,632 10,075,640 10,836,921 7 8,802,591 7,690,391 6,881,578 6,255,328 5,638,519 8 546,985 450,840 386,915 361,560 304,212 9 91,255 79,088 66,674 60,662 53,247 10 26,608 23,190 20,691 19,089 15,155 11 10,093 10,143 9,124 8,050 5,519 12 5,275 5,538 5,086 4,857 3,737 13 1,796 2,122 2,378 1,809 1,416 14 598 879 1,147 872 206 15 227 616 654 493 161 18,293,875 17,470,128 16,717,440 17,293,572 17,360,672 6 45. 6 % 50. 1 % 53. 1 % 58. 3 % 62. 4 % 6. 54 6. 49 6. 45 6. 39 6. 35 : 2003 2007, 5 5, 15 15 (2004) (2007), 6 1986 :,,,,, 6 1991 :1991 7 11,1991 6, 6, 6 11 20,, 7 1 2003 2007,6, 2003 45. 6 %, 2007 62. 4 % 2003 6. 54 2007 6. 35 1990,,1990 6, 2007,6 7, 8, 6 6 100,,, 100 %, 100, 2006 :, ;,
4 25 10, 3 % 30 % 6 70 % 7 60 % 6 40 % 7 2,6 7 30 70 3 11 100,6 3, 7 3 103, 100 12,6 7,,,, 3 %,, 2 11 3 %, 7 6, 6 60 %, 1995 2006,, 2532 1729, 6 7, 2, 3 % 30 % 6 70 % 7 6, 9. 5 %, 6 7 6 1990,, 6, 2 6 7, 8 1997,2003 6, 1,1997 (2003 6 ) :5 (2002 ) 49. 0,6 (2003 ) 833. 9,7 (2004 ) 769. 0,8 (2005 ) 38. 7,9 (2006 ) 6. 1, 2 10 (2007 ),,1997 1700 2003 1829. 4, 7. 7 %, 6 100 %,, 2 6 6 7 1 100 30 2 100 33 70 103 3 3 100 36 67 103 3 4 100 39 64 103 3 5 100 42 61 103 3 6 100 45 58 103 3 7 100 48 55 103 3 8 100 51 52 103 3 9 100 54 49 103 3 10 100 57 46 103 3 11 100 60 43 103 3 12 100 60 40 100 0 :, 10 3 % 30 % 6 70 % 7 60 % 6 40 % 7, 100 %, :
26 33 6,, (2007) 6,, : 3,,,,,, 2003 2007, 9 10,,,,,, 2002 91. 7 %, 96. 7 %, 2006,, :, ( ) 3 1990 2000 6 14 1990 1990 1 %,2000 1990,, 10 (94. 3 %),, 2000 1990,,, 10 9 (98. 6 %), 1990, 3, 6 1, 2003,6 50 %, 2000 78. 9 %,2000 ( ) 2244. 18,, :,, http :/ / emic. moe. edu. cn/ edoas2/ website18/ level3. jsp? id = 1170053429486064, 2006 1990 7 1, 9 1, 1989 1990, 9 10,,1990 7 1 1990 9 1
4 27 3 % 1990 2000 6 41. 0 0. 0 41. 0 78. 9 0. 0 78. 9 7 75. 3 0. 0 75. 3 96. 2 0. 0 96. 2 8 91. 0 0. 0 91. 0 98. 2 0. 0 98. 2 9 93. 8 0. 0 93. 8 98. 5 0. 1 98. 6 10 94. 3 0. 0 94. 3 97. 8 0. 8 98. 6 11 91. 5 1. 3 92. 8 91. 4 6. 7 98. 1 12 80. 2 7. 6 87. 9 65. 7 30. 9 96. 7 13 56. 8 24. 5 81. 2 32. 3 61. 0 93. 3 14 30. 8 39. 4 70. 2 14. 3 70. 3 84. 7 :1990 1990 1 %,2000 2000 3 1990 2000 10, 4 1990,1995,2000,2005 6 14 4 3,, 10 1990 2005 15,, 1990 4,,, 4 4, 4 % 1990 1995 2000 2005 6 58. 7 31. 6 19. 9 16. 4 7 24. 2 6. 8 3. 5 2. 9 8 8. 8 2. 6 1. 5 1. 2 9 5. 6 1. 7 1. 0 0. 9 10 4. 4 1. 6 0. 8 0. 7 11 4. 0 1. 6 0. 7 0. 7 12 4. 2 1. 7 0. 7 0. 7 13 4. 5 1. 8 0. 7 0. 7 14 4. 7 2. 1 0. 8 0. 7 :1990,2000,1995,2005 1 % 3 4 (2007) : 10, 3 4, 1990, 5 10 10 1990, 95 %,, 1995 97 %, 1999 97. 8 %, 5, 10, 10 1 5 10
28 33, 1992 2001,, 1985 96. 0 % 2006 99. 3 % 10 10, 1, 1990 1991, 3. 5 2. 7 1992,,,,, 10,, (2004), (2007) 100 %, 98 %, 95 % 1990,1990, 95 %, 1990 5 10 %( ) % 1990 95. 6 94. 3 1991 96. 4 95. 1 1992 97. 0 95. 7 1993 97. 6 96. 3 1994 98. 0 96. 7 1995 98. 4 97. 1 1996 98. 7 97. 3 1997 98. 9 97. 5 1998 99. 1 97. 7 1999 99. 2 97. 8 2000 99. 2 97. 8 2001 99. 3 97. 8 2002 99. 3 97. 8 2003 99. 3 97. 8 2004 99. 3 97. 8 2005 99. 3 97. 8 2006 99. 3 97. 8 2007 99. 3 97. 8 2008 99. 4 97. 9 2009 99. 5 98. 0 2010 99. 7 98. 1 :1990,2000,1995,2005 1 % :,, /,, (2007) 97 % 96 %, 95 % 95 %
4 29,,,,,,,, 4 1 10 : 2008,,? (2007),,,,,,, (1992 ),, :,,,,,,,,, 1992,, 1995 9 14, < >, 1995 2000, 39,, 50
30 33,,,2007 11 28 25 25, 1000 2007 31,, 4 2008 :,, 2005 2006 10884, 12. 74 %, 2669, 6. 83 %, 79. 91 ; 2005 2006 15553, 228. 05,,,,,,,, 3, 2004 12 13,, (, ),,, 2009,,, ;,,, 1/ 3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, (2007),,,,,, :,
4 31,,, (Banister and Hill 2004 ; 2002) (2007) 2000 19 22, 3 % 7 % 1980, 100 %, (2007) 3 % 7 %, 95 %, 8 % 13 %,, 2000 19 22 8 %, 2000 19 22,, 95 %, 100 %,, 2007 10, :2007 10,2006 9,2005 8, 2004 7,2004 6, 2003 5 2003 2007 2007 ( 6),2007 10, 2. 3 %,,, 2 % 11,, 6 2007 ( %) 6 11,408,596 11,355,741 52,855 0. 47 7 16,197,876 16,203,221-5,345-0. 03 8 15,985,110 15,902,486 82,624 0. 52 9 16,812,126 16,533,429 278,697 1. 69 10 17,367,095 16,981,921 385,174 2. 27 11 17,264,838 17,564,347-299,509-1. 71 12 8,521,182 18,305,456-9,784,274-53. 45 : 2003 2007,5 5,,, 5 1991 2000,, (2007),,
32 33,, 2001 2007 1991 2000 :,, ;,, ; 1990,, (2007),,, ; 10 ; 2004 2007, 1998 2000,, E = E =,, E = 1,,, 2 %, E = 0. 98, 1 1990, 2 2000,,, 6, 2 % 7 1991 2000 ( ) 1 2 1 2 1991 2293. 6 2236. 2 2. 03 1. 98 1992 2154. 7 2100. 8 1. 86 1. 82 1993 2065. 6 2013. 9 1. 76 1. 71 1994 1991. 3 1941. 4 1. 68 1. 64 1995 1949. 9 1901. 1 1. 65 1. 61 1996 1889. 1 1841. 8 1. 62 1. 58 1997 1831. 1 1785. 3 1. 60 1. 56 1998 1764. 5 1720. 3 1. 58 1. 54 1999 1724. 8 1681. 7 1. 59 1. 55 2000 1758. 7 1714. 7 1. 66 1. 62 : 2001 2007 1991 1999,2000 1999 2000, 1999 9 1 2000 8 31 1, 3 1990 ; 2 2 %, 3 2000 1991 1997, 2001 2007 10 1998 2000, 2007 7 9 7 9,, 2003 2007 7 9 ( 10 ) 1, 8, 2003 3. 7 %, 2007 2. 2 %
4 33, 8, 2007 7 9 ( 10 ), 2007 2007 1, 2007 7 9 10 97. 8 %,99. 5 %,99. 8 % 9 1, 7 1991 2000, 1990,, 1990 TFR = 1. 6, 2000 1996 1999, : 2007 7 ; ;, (,2009), 1, 1990 TFR = 1. 6,,, 1 1990, 2 1990 2 10 2 % 6,2007 10 2 %,, 1990 TFR = 1. 6, 6,,,, 6,,,,, : 1990, 1990 TFR = 1. 6, 1. 6 1. 8, : 1990,,,,, ( ) 1 1990 2. 31, 2000
34 33 1. 22 1990, 2000,,, (, 2003 ;, 2004, 2009 ;, 2004 ;, 2004 ;, 2007 ;,2008) 1990,, (,2007 ;,2008)??? 2? 2. 1 2000? 2000, : 1. 8 (,2007) 1. 6, (,2004) 2000 1. 8, : 2000 1/ 3, 2000 2. 0,, 2. 0 2000,, 1990,,, 2. 2 2000 2. 2. 1,,, (,2005a ;, 2008),, 1
4 35 2. 2. 2 2000, 2000 (,2006,P136),, (,2005b) 2000 1. 6,,2000, 1. 6 2. 3 2. 3. 1 1990,, (,2008), (Chu,2001), 20,, 90,,, 2. 3. 2, 20 70,, 1990,,,,, 1990,, 3 3. 1, :1990,?,,, (,2004 ;, 2004),,,,? 3. 2 6,,,,
36 33 6, 6, 3. 3,,,, 1990 2000 2000, 2000, 2000, 1990,, 1990 4,,,,, 4. 1 4. 1. 1,,,, 4. 1. 2 : ;,, 4. 1. 3,,,, ;,, :, ;,,,,, 4. 2,,,,
4 37,, Peterson (1999) : (1) ;, ; (2), ; (3), ; (4) ; (5) (, ), ; (6),, (,2004) :,,, ;,,,,, :,,,,,, 30 ( ),, 4. 3,,, (, 2008),,,,,,,,,,, 5 5. 1?, :,,,,!,,,,,?,
38 33,,, : 1990 ;,, 5. 2,,,,,,,,,,, 5. 3?,, 2000, 2000 1. 81 %??? 1. 81 %?,, 2000,2010 2010, ( ) 1 20,, 1990,,,, 10 2000 2005 1 %,2000 1. 5,2001 1. 4,, (,2002),, ;,,
4 39 ( ),,,,,,,,,, (2002 ;2004), 2000 (2007) 1995 2003, 1990, 2004 2007 2000, 2000 2, (,2007),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 9,,,,, 2005,,,,,,,,,, 3 2004 2007 10, 2000, 1 2007 10 2000 3,,2006 2005 2004 10 2000
40 33 4 5 6 1,,4 237, 2007 10 2000 3 291 1 2007 10 2000 3, 10, 2,2000 0 3 2007 7 10 315, 2007 8 2000 1 449, 1 2004 2007 10 2000 :2004 2007 2000 2 2007 7 10 2000 :2007 2000 2000 1. 22 1. 6 1. 8 (,2002) 2007 7 10 1997 2000 : (1) 7 10 0, (2) 0, (3) 2000 15 49, (4) 2000 15 52 1997 1999,, 95 % 98 % 1 1997 2000
4 41 1 1997 2000 95 % 98 % ( ) ( ) 1997 1882. 2 1. 68 1824. 6 1. 63 1998 1828. 7 1. 67 1772. 2 1. 62 1999 1747. 8 1. 64 1694. 3 1. 59 2000 1838. 6 1. 77 1782. 3 1. 71 : 2007 1, 1990, 1. 7, 2000 1. 7,2000 1. 71 1. 77 4,1990, 2000 2000 2007, 2000 2004,2005, 2005 2007,, 30 2000, 14. 8 %,2005 1 % 20. 4 %, 2007 29. 7 % 2007 2000 2 3 2005 2007 :, 2005 2007,, 27,, 2005 2007, 2 2 ( 24. 59 26. 59 ),, 3,2005 2007 :
42 33 5 1990, 2000, 2000,, 1990, 1990,, 1990 1. 6 2000, 1. 7 1. 8,,,,,,,,,?,?,? ( ), ( ),?,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,??,,,,,,,, : 1 Banister, J udith and Kenneth Hill. Mortality in China 1964-2000. Population Studies. 2004 (58) :55-75. 2 Cai, Yong. An Assessment of China s Fertility Level Using the Variable - r Method. Demography 2008 :271-281. 3 Robert D. Retherford. :? 2004,2
4 43 4 Zhang, Guangyu and Zhao Zhongwei. Reexamining China s Fertility Puzzle : Data Collection and Quality over the Last Two Decades. Population and Development Review 2006 (32) :293-321. 5,.. 2000,2004 6..,2002 ;3 7..,2007 8,. 2000.,2002 ;4 9,. 2000. 2000,2004 10,. 1990.,2004 ;2 11. 2000.,2003 ;6 12. 2000.,2004 ;2 13,. 1990.,2007 ;1 14. 1990.,2004 ;4 15. 1990.,2004 ;2 16..,2009 ;2 17. 30.,2008 ;6 18..,2005 (a) ;4 19. :.,2005 (b) 20,,..,2004 ;5 21,,. 21.,2008 ;6 22.,,2004 ;2 23,,,. 21, :,2006 24..,2004 ;4 25 Chu, J unhong. Prenatal Sex Determination and Sex - selective Abortion in Rural Central China. Population and Development Review 27 :259-281. 2001 26 Peterson, Peter G.. Gray Dawn : How the Coming Age Wave Will Transfer America and the World, New York : Random House. 1999 27. 2005.,2006 28. 2006.,2007 29. 2007.,2008 30,. 2000.,2002 31 1 %,. 2005 1 %.,2007 ( : :2009-07)