2006 9 1949 3 : 1949 2005, : 1949 1978, ; 1979 1997, ; 1998 2005,,, :,,, 1949, :, ;,,,, 50, 1952 1957 ; ; 60 ; 1978 ; 2003,,,,,,, 1953 1978 1953 1978,,,, 100,,,,, 3,, :100836, :wulijjs @263. net ;,, : 350007, :wenruicom @163. com, 39
:1949, 1936, 1713 %, 63 % (, 1957, 5 ), :?,,,,,, (,1999, 329 ),,,,,,,,,, ( ) ; ( ), 1945,,,,,,,,, 100, 1952,,,,,, 1953 9,, :,,, 1928,,,,, (,1984, 109 110 ) 50, :,, ;,, ; ;,,,, : (1) (2) (3) (4),, (5),, 1956,,, : 40
2006 9,, (,1977, 269 ) 1957 2, :,,,,,,,, (,1977, 400 ) 1957 10 9, :,,,,,,,, (,1977, 472 ),,,,, 1958,,,, :,,,,,,,,, 60,, 1969,,,, 1 1952 1978 % 1952 1957 1962 1965 1970 1975 1978 6415 5510 4712 5116 4611 4411 4311 3515 4510 5218 4814 5319 5519 5619 : 1990,,1990, 59,1958 1978 20,,, 20,,,, 1957 1978,, 3. 25, 3. 64, 1. 96, 5. 99, 0. 84,, 1949 1957 8, 89. 4 % 84. 6 %, 5, 1958 1978, 1957 84. 6 % 1978 82. 1 %,20 2. 5,, 1978 1957 7 1978 175, 1957 1958 1957,1978 1970 41
:1949 44 %( ), 34. 5 %, 68. 6 %(,1982, 571 ),, 1949 1978,,,,,,,,,,,, : (1), ; (2), ; (3) ; (4) ; (5), ; (6) 1979 1997 1978,,, 20 1978,, 1980 1 :,,,,, ( ), (,1994, 250 ),, 1977,,, :,,,,, 1978,, 30,,,,,,,, 1987,,, : ; ; ; :1979 1997,, 1978 3418, 1997 97213, 4237 113733, 2518 ; 42
2006 9 1826 55701, 2915 ; 2411 58032, 2311 20,,, 1978 2811 4812 2317 1917 4910 3113, 1978 184 1995 2311, : ; ; ; ; 2 1978 1997 % 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 4311 4317 4712 5115 5012 4815 4714 4711 4716 4812 5619 5613 5218 4815 4918 5115 5216 5219 5214 5118 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 4913 4819 4914 4819 4712 4410 4711 4713 4811 4910 5017 5111 5016 5111 5218 5610 5219 5217 5119 5110 : 1998, 1998, 21 : 1979 1997, (1),,, ;, 1979,,, 1979 1984, 30,,,, 1978 1132, 1997 8651, 1978 21016, 1997 4627918 1979 1997, 3483148, 50 ( 12183, 1953, 4191 ) 708, 70 ( 3916 ) 88 (,1989, 318 320 ) (2) 1979 1980, 3018 %, 277,, 1980 773, 1978 3518 % 1979 1997, 1978 133157, 1997 2090113,19 14165 ; 1978 34314, 1997 516013,19 14103,,,, 20, 1950 100, 1978 13519 1978 100, 1997 43
:1949 38018,,,,,,, (3) 1978,,, ( ),, 1978 7914, 1997 37812, 385126 6585115,,, 1981 183, 1019, 1997 2896, 14160 ; 1989 911, 97, 1997 9611, 3923 ; 1979 1982 3 11166, 1997 452157 (4),, 1979,, 1979 1992, 1978 20614, 9715 ; 1997, 325116, 1978 1417, 182719, 1978 1717,1978 ( ) ( ), ( ), 80 ( ) 90,,,,,, 1998,,,,, ;,,,, 1998 1997, 20,,, 1998,,,,, 44
2006 9 20,, 1998, :, 1000 1000, 1997, 818 %, 3103, 2187, 219 1998 8 %,,,,, 10 % 15 % 20 %, 2200 380 450, 1200 1600 1997,,,,,,,,, ( ), 1996, 16000, 5900, 37 % 1031, 9613, 180, 1715 % 1712 % 1916 %,,, 80,,,,, 4600,, 3600,,, 1997, 1000, 120, 60,1998, 2002, 520 430, 8317 %, 282,,,1997 2001, 2612 1714, 6891117 481718, 4770 8884, 18113 32,,,, 90 %, 80 %, 85 %, 90 %, 70 %, 70 %, 65 %, 100 % ;,1990 2000, 8016 % 3115 %, 5712 % 3111 %, 60 % 2614 %(,2003),,, ;,, 2000,, ( ) 1998 960,, ( 216 %, 45
:1949 118 %),,, 2002, 2005 70 % (,2006),,, 1998, : (1),, ; (2),, ; (3),,,,,,,,,1978 1995, 1996 2004, 3015 % 4118 %, 113 115, 2020, 55 % 60 % (,2005),,, 1998,,,, 10,, 10 % 15 %, 2002 7123 % ; GDP 3 % 4 %, 3 % 5 %, 2002 3105 %(,2005, 34 ),,,,,,,, 1978 1997 20,,,,,, 1998, 50,,, 46
2006 9,,,,,,,1998,,,,,,,,,,?,, : (1) 1998, 40, 2005,, 30, 2017,,,,,,,, (2),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( ) (3), :,,, ;,,,,,,,, (,2005),,,, (4),,,,,,,,,, (2005) 47
:1949,,, (5),,,,,,,,,,,, ;,,,,,, 56,,,,,,,,,,,, 27,,,,,,,,2003 :, 32,1994 :,,1999 :,,1977 :,,1982 :,,2006 :, 25,1989 :,,2005 :, 11,2005 :,,1957 :,,1984 :,,2005 :,,2005 :, 10 The Relation Bet ween Light and Heavy Industry of China s Industrialization Since 1949 Wu Li ( Institute of Economics,CASS) Wen Rui (Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics) Abstract : In the process of China s industrialization from 1949 to 2005, the relation between China s light industry and heavy industry had experienced three major transformations. During 1949 1978, the period of pursuing strong capacities, China had 48
2006 9 been putting emphasis on heavy industry and ignoring light industry ; During the period of wealth2seeking, from 1979 1997, agriculture, light industry, and heavy industry were emphasized equally. During 1998 2005, China entered a period of seeking new road of industrialization. During this period, the government and enterprises are seeking new growth points for China s economy through structure adjustments, in order to achieve rapid development. By analysis of the three periods of China s industrialization, this paper believes that there are five mistakes about the light and heavy of China s industry should be corrected. Key Words : Industrialization ; Heavy Industry ; Light Industry ; Industrial Structure JEL Classification : E210,E290,L120,O140 ( : ) ( : ) ( 26 ) Monetization, Velocity and Output : Modified CIA Constraint and China s Experience Zhao Liuyan (School of Economics, Peking University) Abstract :This paper modifies the traditional cash2in2advance (CIA) constraint in the following two ways. First, it allows only a fraction of the capital goods and consumption goods to be subject to the CIA constraint. The fraction is assumed to depend on institutional shocks, i. e., the changes of monetization and credit2enhancing transaction. Second, it allows the transaction frequency of money is influenced by inflation. Thus we can study the effects of real and nominal shocks on velocity and output in a general equilibrium framework closed to China s realities. When investment and output changes are considered in the theoretical model, monetization and credit2enhancing transaction have no determinate impacts on money and velocity, and inflation will not necessarily lead to lower investment or money demand. The results are different from those of partial equilibrium analysis or traditional CIA models. The empirical results validate the above theoretical predictions. Though lower inflation will reduce velocity, monetization will not reduce it significantly. Hence, the decline of velocity should not be explained solely by monetization and institutional changes hypothesis. Key Words :Monetization ; CIA ; Structural VAR JEL Classification : E410, C320 ( : ) ( : ) 49