:1600 1840 1600 1840 3 :, 1600 1840 GDP, GDP, 1600, GDP 415 ( 1990 388 ), 1840 314 (1600, 1990 318 ) 1600 1840, GDP 55 %, 0118 %, GDP 25 %, - 0112 % : GDP 20,,,,, (,1998 ;,2001),,, ( GDP) GDP,, 1600 1840 GDP, : GDP,,, GDP GDP,,, ( ),, GDP,, GDP,, ( Paul 3,, :200433, :liuti @fudan. edu. cn, GDP, ( 2 %), GDP, GDP,, GDP ;,,, 144
2009 10 Bairoch,1930 1999) (Angus Maddison,1926 ) (Bairoch, 1976, 1981), 1960,1800 324, 220, 228 ;1840 206, 447, 310, 178 (1993) (1988) Peter Brecke (1999) 1800 GDP 44 %,1840 37 %,,,, (1999 2008), GDP GDP 2612 %,1000 2217 %, 1500 25 %,1600 2912 %,1700 2213 %,1820 3219 % ; 1990, GDP 1000 450,1300 1820 600 (1969) (Liu and Hwang, 1977) (Skinner, 1964) (Rozman, 1973),,,,,, : (1) GDP( ), ; (2), GDP ; (3) GDP,,, GDP,, (1987) (2007) 1700 1750 1800 GDP,,,,,, ;,,, GDP,, (1947) (Liu, 1946) 20 30, (2001) 19 80, (1996) 1850 1887,,,,,, :, (Liu and Hwang,1977), 90 % (,1985 ;,1985 ;, 2001), (1987) (1937),, (,2001) (1985) 6 % 2 %, 1840,1740 ( ),1740, (,1969 ; 145
:1600 1840,1980 ;,1985 ;,2001 ;,1994),,, : (1), 23615 ; (2) ( ) 136, 160 ; (3), 180, 1000, 250,, (1958), (Wang,1972) 1638 1935,,, 1 1,,, 85 %,, (1987) ( Yeh,1977), 55 %,, GDP, ( ) (1937),20 20 10 % ( ) ( ), 916 %,,, 1600 315,1840 2218, (2000 2001) (Liu and Hwang,1977) (Chao,1982), 350 (, 330 ),, 1600 1840, - 018 %, - 16 %,,, GDP 1600 313,1840 2311,, ;, ( ),, 1630 19250,1644 15250,1678 116,1776 3114615,1820 38310,1851 43609, 1600 2,, 1840 4116, 4112 :,, :,,, 20 30, 288 ; 400 (2001),, 350 (1999), ( ) 3 ( 400 ) 146
2009 10, (1992) (1985), (2001), 20 % (1985),1840,, 30 %, 20 %,, ( 30 %), GDP, (1987) 4 % (2001) 20 %, ( 40 %) (1947) 20 30,, 6 % (1985),1840 3200 ( 215 ), 1136 % 40 % (,2001), 315 %, (1987) 18 12 %, (2007) 8 %, (2001) 19 80 10 %, (1984) 11 % 10 %, 1600 419,1840 3017,, 11,, : ; ; (1985) ( ) 2412,, 3212, 585219 ; 1840 4516 (1997), 8,,,1600 380,1840 8870,, (1990), 963, 937,, 27 %, 10 %, (1994),1800 200,, 5000,,, :,, ( 5), 147
:1600 1840, 115 % (2001), 715 %, 18 % Hartwell (1962) 1167,Wagner (1997) (1983), 116 (2000),,,, 1,, 2,, 10,,,,,, 10 %,, (2001) (1980) 21, (1992), 115, 118, 1165, 1135,,, ( ), (2001) (1947), 35 %,, 5 %, 5 %, (1985) (2001), (2000) (1985), 10 11, 2128 %, ( ), 160 % 10 %,,,, (2004), 16 %,, 10 %, (1996),, 83 %,, 54 %, 29 %,,, (2001), 22 %, ( ) (2000),,, 21, 110 (2001),1880 490 1840,,, (2001) 8 %,,, 148
2009 10 31,,, (2001), 1,, 1600 311,1840 910,,, GDP, 11,,,, : ; GDP ;,,, ( ),, (1985) 245 ( 1015 %), (1994) 157 236, (1994) 312 ( 450 ), (1994) 8500 ( 130 ) (2000, 2001),,1600 143 ( 15 %), 6200 ;1840 246 ( 1316 %), 3185 (1990),, 30 %, ( ),, (1985),1840 2613 %,, 30 % ;, 9212 %, 50 %, 30 %, ( ) 40 % (,2004),, ( ),, 20 %,, 149
:1600 1840,, 70 %(,2001), 50 %,,,,1600 3450, 9850, 113 ;1840 313, 616 21 (1995, 258 259 ),1685 7695,1724 9904,1753 18075,1812 23139 (,2001),1600 2000,18 5000,1840 1, (2001), 40 %, 20 % ( ),,,, (1810), ( 229) (2001) ( 10 %), (2002), 4, 2, (1921), (1937), ( ) 500 ( 100 ) 10, (2001) (1988) (1996) (2005) (2007), 1 ( 0175 ), 116 ( 112 ),,,, (2005),1814 1502, ;,, 31,,,, (2005) (2007), 300, (2001), (2001),,1600 110, 400, 3890, 4490, 1570 ;1840 513, 117, 115, 9500, 112 150
2009 10 : GDP, 1600 GDP 910,1840 4418 1600 1840 240, GDP 396 %, 0167 % 17, GDP, 18,, GDP, 3 %,, GDP,,,, (,1958, 494 ) (1958) (1972),,, ( ),,,,, ( ), 75 % 25 % ( 1),,,1840 GDP 14103 1600 GDP,240 55 %, 0118 % (1600 1660 ), GDP,1660, GDP, 1 1600 1840 ( 1600 = 100) 2 GDP( 1600 1840) ( : ) 3 GDP( 1600 1840) ( : ), GDP, GDP GDP 240, GDP 138 % ( 415 1018 ), 0136 %, 1600 GDP 25 %, - 0112 % 18, GDP, 4,1600 415, 151
:1600 1840,1840 314 :, GDP 2 ( Geary2Khamis Dollar),, ( ), 1990, 1990 1990 1990, :, 1990 ;,, ( ) GDP 1990, Allen (2001) Clark (2004), 1990,, 1990,1600 1 1990 4214,1840 2216, 1990, (1958) Allen (2001) Clark(2004),1840 2 1149, 0120, 2150, 4147, 0172, 0155, 1101 (2007) 19, ( ),,,,,1600 1,1840 131 %,1600 1 1990 8517,1840 2916,,,,1600 GDP 780,,, 1840 1300,1600 388,1600 1730 GDP, 380,,1840 318 : 1600 29 %,1700 2213 %,1820 3219 % ; 1800 4318 %,1840 3616 % GDP,, ( ), GDP 1960, 1990, GDP,1600 GDP,1840 1820,1800 1840 152
2009 10 GDP,, GDP, GDP 1600 40 %, ; 1700, 70 % ;1820, ;1840 16 %, 1 (1600 1840) GDP GDP 1990 ( ) ( ) 1600 415 415 388 418 35 454 10 165 39 214 133 4 39 45 16 237 904 1610 416 414 386 428 36 465 10 158 38 206 132 5 39 45 17 237 908 1620 411 414 391 361 31 392 11 144 34 189 119 6 39 45 16 224 805 1630 515 319 344 542 46 588 10 157 37 204 146 7 42 48 20 263 1055 1640 515 411 367 463 39 503 9 127 30 167 122 8 37 46 17 229 899 1650 710 411 360 610 52 662 9 126 30 165 141 10 35 50 20 256 1083 1660 710 412 375 683 58 741 10 81 19 109 124 12 38 54 20 248 1099 1670 515 413 380 507 43 550 10 74 18 102 100 14 40 55 18 228 880 1680 415 412 375 369 31 401 11 75 18 104 87 17 41 57 17 220 724 1690 516 413 383 534 45 579 12 95 23 130 116 21 45 58 21 261 969 1700 419 413 378 473 40 512 14 94 23 131 113 24 49 59 22 267 910 1710 610 412 377 653 55 709 16 117 28 162 148 27 53 61 27 316 1186 1720 519 413 385 690 58 748 17 126 30 173 155 31 58 62 30 336 1256 1730 515 412 371 657 55 712 19 131 31 181 159 35 64 72 32 361 1255 1740 519 410 353 753 64 816 22 148 35 205 184 46 69 73 37 410 1432 1750 614 318 340 879 75 954 28 168 40 236 221 59 76 75 43 474 1664 1760 813 316 318 1285 111 1396 34 222 53 308 318 77 83 77 56 610 2314 1770 815 315 313 1409 122 1531 36 246 59 341 351 85 90 78 63 667 2539 1780 717 315 309 1319 113 1432 38 243 58 339 334 93 97 83 60 667 2438 1790 811 315 313 1449 125 1574 48 261 62 371 382 103 104 84 73 746 2691 1800 914 315 311 1817 158 1975 53 310 74 437 479 114 111 87 85 875 3287 1810 1012 315 309 2083 183 2265 56 347 83 485 550 126 119 89 96 978 3728 1820 1010 314 325 2109 185 2294 59 359 86 504 563 139 127 91 102 1021 3818 1830 910 314 319 1949 170 2119 58 343 82 482 517 154 135 93 104 1002 3603 1840 1018 314 318 2512 222 2734 58 409 98 565 659 171 146 95 115 1185 4484 : ; GDP 1600 = 100 : 153
:1600 1840,2007 :, 2,1937 :,,1993 : 15 18 ( 3 ),,,2000 : ( ) : ),,2001 : ( ) : ),,1937 :,,1980 :, 3,1994 :, 3,1990 :,,2005 : :,,1996 :, 3,2001 : :,,,2007 : GDP,,2001 :, ( ),,1997 :,,1921 :,,2002 : ( ),,2007 :, ( : ),1988 :,,,2000 : :1550 1580,,2007 :,1620 1850,,,2000 : : (1700 2000),,,1996 :,,2004 :, 3,1995 :,,1987 :, 3,2005 : :, ( ) 5,1979 :,,1999 : ( ),,,2003 :,,,2008 : : 960 2030 ( ),,,2003 : :,,,1958 :,,1984 : :1368 1968,,,1990 :,,1983 :, :,,1994 :,,1998 : :,,,1988 :, ( ) 2,1947 : :,,1985 :,,1985 :,,1980 :,,1999 :, 1,1992 :,,1980 :, 3 154
2009 10,1994 :, 4,2005 : 18, 4,2001 :,, Allen, R1 C1, 2001, The Great Divergence : Wages and Prices from the Middle Ages to the First World War, Explorations in Economic History, 38 (4), 411 447. Bairoch, P., 1976, European Gross National Product 1800 1975, Journal of European Economic History, 5 (2), 273 340. Bairoch, P., 1981, The Main Trends in National Economic Disparities since the Industrial Revolution, in Paul Bairoch and Maurice Levy2 Leboyer, eds., Disparities in Economic Development since the Industrial Revolution, pp. 3 17, New York : St. Martin s Press,. Brecke, P., 1999, Violent Conflicts 1400 A. D. to the Present in Different Regions of the World, Paper for the 1999 Meeting of the Peace Science Society, Ann Arbor, Michigan. Chao, K., 1986, Man and Land in Chinese History : An Economic Analysis, Stanford University Press. Clark, G., 2004, The Price History of English Agriculture, 1209 1914, Research in Economic History, 22, 41 124. Hartwell, R. M., 1962, A Revolution in the Chinese Iron and Coal Industries During the Northern Sung, 960 1126 A. D. Journal of Asian Studies, 21 (2), 153 162. Liu, P. K. C., and K. S. Hwang, 1977, Population change and Economic Development in Mainland China since 1400, in Hou and Yu (eds. ), Modern Chinese Economic History, Taipei : Acadimia Sinica. Liu, Ta2chung, 1946, China s National Income 1931 36, An Exploratory Study, The Brookings Institution. Rozman, G., 1973, Urban Networks in Ch ing China and Tokugawa Japan, Princeton University Press. Skinner, G. W., 1964, Marketing and Social Structure in Rural China, Journal of Asian Studies, 24 (1), 3 43. Syrquin, M., and H. Chenery, 1989, Three Decades of Industrialization, World Bank Econmic Reviews, 3 (2), 145 181. Wagner, D.,1997, The Traditional Chinese Iron Industry and Its Modern Fate, Curzon Press. Wang, Yeh2chien, 1972, The Secular Trend of Prices during the Ch ing Period,1644 1911, 5 2, pp. 348 371 Yeh, Kung2chia, 1977, China s National Income, 1931 36, in Hou and Yu ( eds. ). Modern Chinese Economic History, Taipei : Academia Sinica. An Estimation of China s GDP from 1600 to 1840 Liu Ti (Departmant of History, Fudan University) Abstract:This paper estimates China s GDP from 1600 to 1840 using SNA method. The findings show that Augus Maddison overestimated China s economic output during that period. European countries, and the gap was continuously widening. GDP per capita in pre2modern China was far below the average In 1600, real GDP per capita in China was 168 gram silver (MYM388 at 1990 level), and decreased to 127 gram silver ( 318 at 1990 level). GDP in China from 1600 to 1840 increased by 0118 % per year while GDP per capita decreased about 0112 per year over the same period. Key Words :Pre2modern China ; GDP ; Aggregate Economy JEL Classification :N15,N10 ( : ) ( : ) 155