* ** ** 9
92
% 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 % 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 990 2000 200 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 200 978 979 980 98 982 983 984 985 986 987 988 989 990 99 992 993 994 995 996 997 998 999 2000 200 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 200 20 93
GN n n X X X X n n 2 3 n 0 0 0 0 X X t X t X t X t t t t t X X n X,,,..., dx ax bx 2 b2x3... bn x n dt G X X dx ax bx2 dt sx() s ax() s bx2() s x () s W () s x () s () x2 W s x () s b () s ( s a) 2 W 0.0347 () s ( s 0.440) G W () s Gs () ( W W ( s)) 2 0.0347 ( s 0.440) 0.0347 Gs () W 0.0347 s 0.440 0.347 W 2 ( s 0.440) G 2 94
W R RIG It Gt Gt It Gt Gt R G G t Gt Gt Gt Gt Gt t G t Gt It D G t G t Gt Gt g G t R D g g 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0.0 0.0 98 982 983 984 985 986 987 988 989 990 99 992 993 994 995 996 997 998 999 2000 200 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 200 20 95
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Analysis on the Reasonable Space of China s Investment Scale during Twelfth Five-Year Plan Period 96
Zhou Xueren, Research Academy of Economic and Social Development, Center for Public Policy Research, Dongbei University of Finance and Economic, Dalian, 6025; Cai Tiantian, Graduate School, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian, 6025) Abstract: Based on gray theory, as well as the Incremental Capital-Output Ratio and economic growth targets, this paper determines reasonable space of the scale of investment in China during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan Period. The empirical results show that when the investment rate is above 23.7%, can the gray system of China s investment and GDP maintain a stable growth state; under the constraints of the established goals of economic growth and the fluctuations space of Incremental Capital-Output Ratio, it illustrates that the reasonable investment rate in China is between 27.9% and 4.86% during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan Period. However, in recent years, China s actual investment rate has exceeded the upper limit of the calculated reasonable rate of investment, therefore, it would be better to lower the investment rate of China. Key words: Twelfth Five-Year Plan Period, investment scale, reasonable space 97