1978 2005 1 2005 TFP 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005 2006 Jian et al 1996 Fujita et al 2001 Démurger 2002 Zhang et al 2003 Bertrand Schoar(2003) CEO 1942 20 90 1990 1994 1999 2006 8 6 1 1 1999 4 22 1
2 1978-2005 Difference in Difference 1 1990 Young 2000 2001 2004 Qian et al 1997 Qian et al 1998 Jin et al(2005) (2007) Maskin 2000 Blanchard 2000 20 80 2004 2005 Li et al 2005 2005 2006 Jin et al(2005) 2 2004 11 18 1084 2006 07 06 1169 2007.03.16 2
3 Jones Olken(2005) 1945-1990 130 Bertrand Schoar(2003) 1969-1999 800 4 5 6 3 4 1 1995 26 5 1 1995 585 6 1 1994 235 3
(Difference in Difference) 7 4 du 1 0 dt 0 1 git = β0 + β1duit + β2dtit + β3 duit dtit + εit 1 i t g ε β 3 du it = 0 1 β0 + εit dtit = 0, git = β0 + β2 + εit dtit = 1, dif 1 = β2 8 du it = 1 1 7 Meyer(1995) 8 ( β 0 + β 2 + ε ) ( β 0 + ε ) it it 4
β0 + β1+ εit dtit = 0, git = β0 + β1+ β2 + β3 + εit dtit = 1, dif 2 = β2 + β3 9 dif 2 dif 1= β2 + β3 β2 = β3 du it dt it β 3 β 3 2007 2005 10 git = β0 + β1duit + β2dtit + β3 duit dtit + ηxit + εit 2 X η t = 12 1 2 i = 123 1978-2005 1978-2005 30 2003 1978-2005 30 450 49 11 1 1978-2005 1 A 80% 30 5 25 1 5 1 3 49 21 70% 23 6 1992 1 B 1992 13 22 13 27 12 1992 13 1992 9 14 5 1 C 1 10 3.76 9 ( β 0 + β 1 + β 2 + β 3 + εit ) ( β 0 + β 1 + εit ) 10 11 12 30 11 19 5
1 8 3.94 13 4 1 1978-2005 A 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 B 1978-1991 4 5 9 3 10 13 22 1992-2005 7 7 14 3 10 13 27 1978-2005 11 12 23 6 20 26 49 C 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 3.76 6 7 14 10 4 2 2 2 0 2 2.2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 3.94 6 7 10 10 5 4 2 5 0 0 2.1 2004 55 2005 2006 dt it du it 2 dt it i dt it = 0 1 dt it = 1 2 1 2 1 3 4 5 1 3-5 1 3 2 1981 1981 14 1 2 13 14 1978 1 6
2005 15 2 16 5 1989 2 1980 1 7 i dt it 7 i = 1, 2, L, 7 dt it 1994 4 1994-1997 2 1 3 1 1991-1993 7 g = α + β du + β dt + β du dt + β log( y ) + β log( inv ) + β log( n + γ + δ ) + ε 3 it 1 it 2 it 3 it it 4 i, t 1 5 it 6 it it it it t = 12 1 2 i = 123 y it, 1 1 2 GDP g it, 1 2 GDP inv it n it γ it δ it 1 2 2 2 3 3 Mankiw 1992 17 γ it + δ it = 0.10 18 β 3 15 16 17 Mankiw 18 7
du dt du dt log( y ) log( n + γ + δ ) log( inv ) adj 2 1978-2005 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) 0.0771 *** -0.2445 *** -0.2184 *** -0.1923 *** -0.1716 *** -0.1866 *** -0.1731 *** (1673) (-25.9) (-17.9) (-18.5) (-5.16) (-4.00) (-3.71) 0.0055 ** 0.0072 *** 0.0074 *** 0.0056 *** 0.0167 *** 0.0109 *** 0.0106 *** (2.04) (3.37) (4.11) (4.30) (4.96) (3.46) (3.65) 0.0085 *** 0.0051 *** 0.0040 *** 0.0029 *** -0.0043 *** -0.0058 ** -0.0028 (131) (5.64) (4.16) (4.00) (-5.85) (-2.21) (-1.44) 0.0086 ** 0.0058 * 0.0066 ** 0.0076 *** 0.0126 *** 0.0151 *** 0.0121 *** (2.25) (1.94) (2.58) (4.13) (4.25) (4.32) (4.30) 0.0018 *** 0.0013 ** -0.0001-0.0127 *** -0.0096 *** -0.0078 *** (3.87) (2.57) (-0.32) (-7.54) (-5.68) (-5.03) -0.1476 *** -0.1376 *** -0.1306 *** -0.1794 *** -0.1723 *** -0.1571 *** (-47.9) (-31.0) (-30.7) (-10.6) (-8.43) (-7.19) 0.0134 *** 0.0141 *** 0.0138 *** 0.0526 *** 0.0418 *** 0.0356 *** (8.96) (8.24) (9.76) (9.11) (6.32) (6.63) 2 R 0.999 0.980 0.976 0.993 0.998 0.973 0.987 D W 1.96 2.09 2.13 2.16 1.96 2.08 2.17 3 3 4 5 3 4 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 7 7 7 7 448 448 416 400 112 104 100 Pooled EGLS t *** ** * 1% 5% 10% 2 1978-2005 2 1 β 3 = 0.0086 5% 0.86 2 β 3 = 0.0058 10% log( n + 0.1) log( inv) log( y) 1 3 4 5 2 3 4 β 3 5% 1% 0.006 log( n + 0.1) log( inv) log( y) 2 3 19 3 2 3 3 β 3 0.007 2 19 1 3.9 4 8
du dt 3 1978-2005 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) 0.0062 ** (2.11) 0.0091 *** (3.25) 0.0076 *** (7.44) 0.0090 ** (2.01) 0.0094 *** (2.85) 0.0122 *** (4.79) 0.0061 (1.65) 0.0087 *** (3.77) 0.0094 *** 3 4 5 3 4 5 3 4 5 (3.27) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 7 7 7 432 400 384 168 156 150 336 312 300 3 2 2 β 3 1% 0.01-0.015 1 log( y) 1% 1998 2002 5 3 4-9 7 β 3 1% 0.006-0.012 1978-2005 4 1978-1991 1992 7 1 3 4 β 3 1992 1992-2005 1992 2 20 4 3 4 β 3 1% 0.02 20 90 2000 1998 1992-2000 1995-2000 β 3 9
1992 1992-1998 1999-2005 4 β 3 1% 0.02 du dt adj 4 1978-2005 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 1978-1991 1992-2005 1992-1998 1999-2005 -0.0009 (-0.06) -0.0093 (-0.82) 0.0187 *** (6.25) 0.0153 *** (7.12) 0.0187 *** (2.91) 0.0208 *** (3.54) 0.0188 *** (5.75) 0.0136 *** (2.96) 2 R 0.808 0.897 0.985 0.998 0.972 0.982 0.994 0.999 D W 2.07 2.18 2.10 2.26 1.73 1.94 2.09 2.39 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 128 112 240 240 96 96 112 112 3 2 90 1 90 1990 1 B 5 du dt adj 5 1978-2005 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) 0.0062 (0.97) 0.0004 (0.06) 0.0024 (0.35) 0.0077 * (1.92) 0.0037 (0.73) 0.0113 *** (3.54) 0.0111 ** (2.44) 0.0130 *** (3.70) 0.0112 ** (2.06) 2 R 0.993 0.994 0.993 0.983 0.972 0.986 0.961 0.978 0.961 D W 1.76 2.18 2.11 2.38 2.05 2.10 1.88 1.96 1.97 3 4 5 3 4 5 3 4 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 7 7 7 36 30 30 156 144 132 208 192 192 3 2 1 1978-2005 11 5 β 3 10
5 4-6 1978-2005 20 β 3 3 β 3 10% 1% 3 β 3 1 1978-2005 18 12 6 21 5 3 β 3 0.01-22 5 1978-2005 6 β 3 = 0.03 1% 1 β 3 23 2 β 3 β 3 3 β 3 = 0.027 1% 1978-2005 3 6 4-6 β 3 0.015 1 24 6 3 β3-0.0075 25 0.7 0 21 6 4 2 1 2 3 22 23 5 β 3 24 5 β 3 25 5 β 3 11
6 1978-2005 -0.0739 *** -0.0499 *** -0.0646 *** -0.0587 *** -0.0531 *** 0.1137 *** -0.0485 *** -0.0629 *** (-9.25) (-4.94) (-2.82) (-5.40) (-4.99) (3.39) (-5.11) (-5.52) du dt du dt log( y ) adj -0.0255 *** -0.0178 *** (-7.90) (-5.38) 0.0090 *** (6.29) 0.0313 *** (6.87) 0.0193 *** (21.1) 0.0134 *** (11.3) 0.0238 *** (5.14) 0.0159 *** (13.9) -0.0067 * (-1.71) 0.0091 *** (2.66) 0.0272 *** (4.92) 0.0163 *** (6.04) -0.0039 (-1.19) 0.0118 *** (6.32) 0.0021 (0.45) 0.0159 *** (9.29) -0.0162 *** (-5.50) 0.0114 *** (6.83) 0.0150 *** (3.65) 0.0149 *** (8.83) 0.0008 (0.20) 0.0241 *** (10.6) 0.0173 *** (6.32) 0.0721 ** (2.06) 0.0178 *** (3.95) 0.0154 *** -0.0042 *** -0.0048 *** -0.0061 ** (3.15) (-2.59) (-3.35) (-2.19) 0.0151 *** (3.01) -0.0130 ** (-2.47) -0.0075 ** (-2.35) 0.0121 *** (10.2) -0.0013 (-0.34) 0.0139 *** (9.72) -0.0021 (-0.36) -0.0028 (-0.63) 2 R 0.968 0.983 0.941 0.746 0.807 0.975 0.880 0.879 0.875 D W 2.01 2.11 2.27 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.94 1.92 1.96 3 4 4 3 4 4 3 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 7 7 7 7 7 7 448 416 104 448 416 104 448 416 104 j j git = α + β1duit + β2dtit + β3duit dtit + β4log( yit 1) + εit j = 1, 2,3 3 2 5 1978-2005 4 1978-2005 12
20 90-1 1. Démurger, S. 2002 9 14-23 2. 2004 4 29-40 3. 2002 4. 2006 10 52-61 5.,2003 :, 8 3-14 6. 2005 9 19-29 7. 1990 3 12-19 8. 2007 3 17-28 9. 2004 1 33-44 10. 2005 12 57-67 11. 2006 12. 2001, 6 3-12 13. 2005 4 101-105 14. 2004 6 33-40 15. 2005 : 8 44-53 16. 2005 1 1 83-96 17. Bertrand, M., and A., Schoar, 2003, Managing with Style: The Effect of Managers on Firm Policies Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118: 1169-1208. 18. Blanchard, O.., and A., Shleifer, 2001, Federalism with and without Political Centralization: china vs. Russia in Transitional Economics: How Much Progress? IMF Staff Papers 48: 171-179. 19. Fujita M. and D., Hu, 2001, Regional Disparity in China 1985-1994: the Effect of Globalization and Economic Liberalization, Annals of Regional Science, 35: 3-37. 20. Jian Luntian, J., Sachs and A., Warner, 1996, Trends in Regional Inequality in China, China Economic Review, 7: 1-21. 21. Jin, H., Y. Qian and B. Weingast, 2005, Regional Decentralization and Fiscal Incentives: Federalism, Chinese Style, Journal of Public Economics, 89:1719-1742. 13
22. Jones, B., and B., Olken, 2005, Do Leaders Matter? National Leadership and Growth Since World War II, Quarterly Journal of Economics,120: 835 64. 23. Li, Hongbin, and Li-An Zhou, 2004. Political Turnover and Economic Performance: The Incentive Role of Personel Control in China. Journal of Public Economics, 89: 1743-1762. 24. Mankiw, N.G., D. Romer and D. Weil, 1992, A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107: 407-437. 25. Maskin, E., Qian, Yingyi, Xu, Chenggang, 2000, Incentives, Information, and Organizational Form, Review of Economic Studies, 67: 359 378. 26. Meyer, B., 1995, Natural and Quasi-Experients in Economics, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13(2): 151-161. 27. Qian, Y. and G., Roland,1998, Federalism and the Soft Budget Constrain, American Economic Review, 88: 1143-1162. 28. Qian, Y., and B.,Weingast, 1997, Federalism as a commitment to preserving market incentives. Journal of Economic Perspectives,11:83-92. 29. Young, A.,2000, The Razor s Edge: Distributions and Incremental Reform in the People s Republic China, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115: 1091-1136. 30. Zhang,X. and Zhang K. H., 2003, How Does Globalization Affect Regional Inequality Within a Developing Country? Evidence from China, Journal of Development Studies, 39: 47-67. 14
1978-2005 1 (90.11-96.10) (96.10-02.10) 26 (86.7-90.7) (90.07-98.03) 2 (77.12-80.10) (80.11-85.07) 27 (90.07-98.03) (98.03-02.11) 3 (97.12-01.11) (01.12- ) 28 (95.6-98.8) (98.09-02.11) 4 (81.3-86.5) (88 89) 29 (98.09-02.11) (02.11- ) 5 (01.08-02.11) (02.11- ) 30 (83.03-87.07) (87.07-95.06) 6 (99.08-02.10) (02.10- ) 31 (77.02-81.10) (81.10-85.10) 7 (98.09-02.12) (02.12-06.10) 32 (00.10-04.12) (04.12- ) 8 (88.5-90.6) (90.6-94.4) 33 (92.12-99.06) (99.6-05.6) 9 (78.06-78.10) (78.10-81.01) 34 (91.3-93.9) (93.09-98.10) 10 (02.11-03.04) (03.04- ) 35 (77.01-79.02) (80.10-83.3) 11 (85.05-87.07) (93.03-97.08) 36 (77.06-88.04) (88.04-95.04) 12 (78.10-81.01) (81.01-84.05) 37 (92.10-00.10) (00.10-02.12) 13 (94.11-99.12) (00.01-02.12) 38 (87.09-90.03) (90.03-92.12) 14 (86.12-89.12) (89.12-93.09) 39 (82.12-85.04) (85.05-90.03) 15 (87.07-90.07) (90.07-98.10) 40 (79.02-83.04) (82.12-83.03) 16 (98.07-04.12) (04.12- ) 41 (86.05-93.01) (93.02-00.12) 17 (83.04-86.05) (86.05-93.12) 42 (77.02-79.12) (80.03-82.12) 18 (86.09-97.04) (97.04-02.11) 43 (85.07-88.12) (88.12-92.10) 19 (79.12-82.12) (82.12-88.12) 44 (97.04-01.10) (01.10- ) 20 (90.11-93.10) (93.10-97.8) 45 (83.03-86.04) (89.12-97.08) 21 (90.6-94.4) (94.4-97.7) 46 (92.03-95.06) (95.06-97.08) 22 (00.6-03.6) (05.7- ) 47 (01.10-03.08) (03.08-06.07) 23 (85.6-86.4) (86.04-88.04) 48 (03.10-04.12) (04.12-05.11) 24 (83.4-86.3) (86.3-87.8) 49 (98.09-01.08) (01.08- ) 25 (98.01-01.01) (01.01-02.10) 50 (99.01-05.12) (06.01- ) 51 (98.02-01.08) (07.01- ) 2005 15