2018.4 1 2 3 2014 2015 2016 2016 F325.1 A 17BJY010 16JZD02420142017-13 -
2009 1.48 2014 2.22 6 50%20162012 2013 6% 2015 2015 2.5 630 2016 2015 9 2015 2016 1 3 + 20172017 20162016 2017 2017 201720172017 201720172017 http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/future/agri/2016-09-13/docifxvueif6713364.shtml http://finance.ifeng.com/a/20141020/13198787_0.shtml http://www.sohu.com/a/162167116_616768 630 http://www.xinhuanet.com/2016-04/18/c_ 1118647597.htm - 14 -
2016 87.7 270 32.48% 50 350 25.06% 2016 44.5 2015 34.3 30%2017 201320142014 2014 2015 2016 2016 2016 6 50 1/3http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2016-11/20/c_1119947716.htm - 15 -
2011 2008 2016 X 321 173 100 2014 50%http://www.ce.cn/cysc/sp/info/201501/07/t20150107 4279952. shtml 2016 500 400 http://www.chinaneast.gov.cn/2017-02/06/c_136034397.htm 16.67 17.38 19.49 19.26 http://www.chinagrain.gov.cn/n316987/n990532/n994298//c1074381/ content.html - 16 -
H1 201431 3000 24 3050 80% 50% 2 2017 3 2014 3092 2826 2015 3073 2903 2014 2331 2016 3050 2998 2015 2516 3 2023 6069 2204 640 803 761 3 1 2014 253 153 60.47%2015 297 214 72.05% 2016 270 194 71.85% 1 2014 2023 640 253 153 100 2015 2023 803 297 214 83 2016 2023 761 270 194 76 6069 2204 820 561 259 4 2014 2015 2016-17 -
2014 2016 2014 26.09% 2015 31.65% 2016 40.74% 23 14.65 12016 270 2014 253 44 2017 2016 44.5 2016 2014 6.52 20142014 2014 26.80% 2015 32.24% 2016 43.81% 25% 30.12% 32.89% 2016 2016 2015 2014 35.89% 63.47% 9.19% 31.56% 2 % 2014 26.09 26.80 25.00 2015 31.65 32.24 30.12 2016 40.74 43.81 32.89 2016 2015 28.72 35.89 9.19 2016 2014 56.15 63.47 31.56 3 3 2014 40% 34.23% 60% 13.51% - 18 -
10 20% 10 30% 20 40% 2015 3 % 2014 2015 2016 25.97 32.48 40.87 27.27 21.74 38.89 [1,3] 20.25 25.00 29.63 [4,5] 25.00 30.67 36.29 >6 40.30 41.49 53.26 31.78 32.99 43.46 21.92 31.00 34.18 % (0, 40] 34.23 31.25 36.73 (40, 60] 21.90 32.23 60.00 >60 13.51 31.25 33.97 (0, 10] 15.91 20.21 26.47 (10, 20] 25.00 33.70 35.24 >20 37.65 39.64 56.70 y area year Z V a 1 it 0 i 2016 it t i it - 19 -
1i i 20142015 2016 y it i t y it =1 y it =0 areai i area i =1area i =0 year2016 2016 =1=0areai year2016 2016 Z it y it V t a i it y it 0 >0 >0 =0 <0 4 4 820 =1=0 0.33 0.47 2016 2016 =1=0 0.24 0.43 =1=0 0.92 0.27 46.19 8.37 =1=2=3=4=5 =6=7=8=9 3.66 1.23 5.60 4.94 =1=0 0.70 0.46 1.98 1.05 =1=0 0.48 0.50 =1=0 0.92 0.28 =1=0 0.82 0.38 =1=0 0.72 0.45 =1=0 0.06 0.23 % 51.84 25.22 23.36 34.85 425.99 258.49 27.36 38.68-20 -
OLS 1 Breusch and Pagan LM 1%Hausman 1% 1 Angrist and Pischke20092014 42 Angrist and Pischke2009Stock and Watson2011 OLS 1 OLS OLS 01 2016 2016 OLS 01 1.22% Probit 51 2016 OLS 52 OLS 5 2 2014 2015 2016 OLS 3 2014 2015 OLS 4 2015 1 Probit - 21 -
2014 2015 2016 OLS 5 2014 2015 2016 OLS 2 53 F 1% 1.2016 522016 5% 0.151 15.1% 2016 40.74% 2 1/3 30% 45.1% 2.2016 2014 2015 2016 52 2015 2016 2014 2015 2015 53 2015 2015 2014 2015 2016 542015 2016 37.06% 2 2015 2014 20.3% 20.48% Moser and Voena2012-22 -
3.2016 2014 2015 2016 55 552016 1% 4. 55 55 2016 2016 15.1% 2014 100 2014 20142016 2016 2016 100 15 2016-23 -
5 2016 1 2 3 4 5 Probit-RE OLS-FE OLS-FE OLS-FE OLS-FE 2016 0.144 *** 0.151 ** 0.148 ** 0.254 *** (0.028) (0.065) (0.062) (0.077) 0.070 *** (0.027-0.007 *** (0.002) -0.056 *** (0.010) 0.024 *** (0.004) 0.062 *** 0.060 ** 0.033 0.060 ** -0.016 (0.017) (0.028) (0.045) (0.029) (0.041) 0.052 *** 0.034 * -0.005 0.034 * 0.033 * (0.011) (0.018) (0.013) (0.018) (0.019) 0.083 *** 0.058 ** 0.059 * 0.058 ** 0.038 (0.020) (0.029) (0.031) (0.029) (0.029) 0.056 *** 0.010 0.137 0.010 0.058 (0.022) (0.068) (0.112) (0.069) (0.071) 0.010 0.078 * 0.086 * 0.078 * 0.061 (0.026) (0.048) (0.051) (0.047) (0.050) -0.004 0.067 * 0.048 0.067 * 0.078 ** (0.022) (0.035) (0.032) (0.034) (0.035) 0.145 *** 0.019 0.328 0.018-0.303 *** (0.025) (0.128) (0.282) (0.125) (0.080) -0.002 0.005 ** 0.001 0.005 ** 0.005 ** (0.001) (0.002) (0.003) (0.002) (0.002) 0.000-0.000 ** -0.000-0.000 ** -0.000 ** (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) -0.002 *** -0.004 *** -0.000-0.004 *** -0.005 *** (0.000) (0.001) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) 0.000 *** 0.000 *** -0.000 0.000 *** 0.000 *** (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) - 24 -
5 0.025 * -0.040-0.086-0.040-0.056 (0.015) (0.042) (0.054) (0.042) (0.051) 0.146 *** 0.120 *** 0.192 ** 0.120 *** 0.101 *** (0.012) (0.042) (0.088) (0.042) (0.038) 2015 0.057 *** 0.035 0.018 0.039 1.452 *** (0.022) (0.022) (0.028) (0.044) (0.118) 2016 0.022-0.006-0.003 1.172 *** (0.026) (0.057) (0.051) (0.124) -0.099-0.077-0.098-0.305 (0.282) (0.369) (0.282) (0.366) 2015 0.020-0.005 (0.035) (0.048) 820 820 550 820 820 430 430 381 430 430 Wald χ 2 F 32.90 3.29 1.37 3.14 2.69 Prob> Wald χ 2 Prob> F 0.035 0.000 0.161 0.000 0.000 ****** 1%5%10%Probit-RE 2014 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016-25 -
1.2017 6 2.2016 8 3.2017 3 4.2013 4 5.2016 8 6.2015 YSN 3 7.2014 12 8.2017 1 9.2008 11 10.2017 1 11.2014 5 12.2017 7 13.2011 11 14.2014 2 15.2017 1 16.2017 1 17.2017 9 18.2017 7 19.2017 16 20.2017 2 21.Angrist, J. D., and J. S. Pischke, 2009, Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion, Princeton, NJ: - 26 -
Princeton University Press. 22.Moser, P., and A. Voena, 2012, Compulsory Licensing: Evidence from the Trading with the Enemy Act, American Economic Review, 102(1): 396-427. 23.Stock, J., and M. Watson, 2011, Introduction to Economics (3rd edition), Boston: Addison-Wesley. 1 2 3 The Impact of the Corn Purchasing and Storage System Reform on the Participation of Family Farms in Cooperatives: An Empirical Study Based on the Monitoring Data on National Family Farms Liu Wenxia Du Zhixiong Gao Liangliang Abstract: The reform of corn purchasing and storage system is an important measure to promote the market-oriented reform of grain purchasing and storage in a steady way. It also is an important part in an attempt to explore and establish price mechanisms of agricultural products in China. It is of great significance to carry out research and conduct a timely impact evaluation. This article uses data on national household farms from 2014 to 2016 and analyzes the impact of the corn purchasing and storage system reform on the participation of family farms in cooperatives. The results show that the probability of family farms in the three provinces of Northeast China and Inner Mongolia in 2016 to join cooperatives is significantly higher than corn farms in other areas where purchasing and storage reform has not yet been implemented. The reason for this phenomenon is likely to be that the implementation of purchasing and storage system reform has changed main acquisition agencies from previously the state to market enterprises nowadays. When producers need to sell corn through the market mechanism by themselves, the participation in cooperatives can reduce market risk. This means that the reform of corn purchasing and storage system has stimulated the market-oriented behavior of agricultural producers, and that the market mechanism which reflects the supply-demand relationship has started to regulate the production and demand. Key Words: Corn Purchasing and Storage System Reform; Family Farm; Cooperative - 27 -