9 Jan 214 Great Wall Motors(2333.HK) BUY Target price:hk$56. Driving by SUV With the highest exposure to the SUV market among all domestic OEMs, GWM is the best proxy of China s SUV boom which is expected to rise 25% in 214. The GWM brand will be strengthened further by the new launch in the pipeline which will help the company to command premium pricing and sell its products. At 1x 214 PE, valuation is undemanding. Highest SUV exposure among all major auto OEMs. Although 3.6% lower than our expectation, GWM 213 sales reached 754k units, or 7.7% higher than the company s target. SUV sales grew by 49% to 417k units driven by surging H6/M4 sales. We forecast its SUV sales to grow by 32% to 552k units in 214 and for the first time to take up over 6% of total sales. This will be the highest among all major auto OEMs compared with around 27% for GAC and 24% for Dongfeng Motors. Analyst John Luo SFC CE No.: AVT 518 852-2899 83 John.luo@guosen.com.hk Performance 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, AUTO 6 5 4 3 2 1 SUV to drive 9% of GWM s sales growth in 214. Following an estimated 5% surge in China s SUV sales in 213, we forecast another 25% growth in 214. GWM is in an excellent position for this booming market. The company owns 2 of the 5 best-selling SUV models in China and will launch more competitive models - H8, H2 and potentially H7 going forward. After the launch of Tianjin Phase II plant and the Xushui Plant, GWM will have 4k additional SUV capacity in 214 compared with mid-213. We forecast that over 9% of its sales growth in 214 will be contributed by SUV models. Capitalizing the strong GWM brand. GWM owns 3 of the 6 best-selling models among domestic players. The newly launched H8 model has received positive market feedbacks which should further enhance its brand. This should help GWM in pricing and selling its products. The company has succeeded in raising the price of the flagship H6 model from RMB96k to RMB116k through product upgrades. The forthcoming H2 model is likely to sell well given its outstanding design and lack of strong competition in the RMB8k - 1k price range. Source: Wind Key Data HSI GWM Price(HK$) 39.4 Shares Outstanding(m)* 1,326 Market Cap. (HK$ m)* 119,855 Free float (%) 43.6 Average Daily Turnover HK$ 237m 52 Week Range 51.9 / 2.6 Controlling Shareholder Baoding Innovation Great Wall Asset Management Company Limited (56.4%) BVPS (HK$) 7.4 Debt ratio (%) 49 Buy the SUV story, Buy GWM. GWM is the largest player in the fastest growing SUV market segment. It has firmly established a leading position and will launch more competitive models in 214. We have slightly adjusted down our 213-15 earnings forecast by 1%, 2% and 5% to account for the lower-than-expectation 213 sales. The stock is still trading at undemanding PE of 1x in 214. We reiterate Buy and TP of HK$56. Financial Summary Year to Dec 211A 212A 213E 214E 215E Revenue (RMB m) 3,89 43,16 55,792 7,994 8,273 Operating Profit (RMB m) 4,77 6,716 9,95 11,674 12,746 Reported Profit (RMB m) 3,426 5,692 8,476 1,13 1,957 Underlying EPS (RMB) 1.22 1.87 2.79 3.29 3.6 DPS (RMB).3.57.7.82.9 BVPS (RMB) 6.5 7.11 9.24 11.73 14.46 P/E (x) 25.8 16.8 11.3 9.6 8.8 Dividend Yield (%) 1.% 1.8% 2.2% 2.6% 2.9% P/B (x) 5.3 4.46 3.44 2.71 2.2 Source: Guosen Securities (HK) 1
买入 目标价 : HK$ 56. 押宝 SUV 汽车行业 作为国内 SUV 销量占比最高的汽车集团, 长城汽车将会是中国 SUV 普及浪潮的最好投资标的, 而这一市场在 214 年预计再增长 25% 长城汽车的品牌将会通过新的产品继续得到提升, 销售均价也将持续提高 214 年 1x 的 PE 十分吸引, 维持买入 分析师 罗文安证监会中央编号 :.AVT 518 852-2899 83 John.luo@guosen.com.hk 在主流汽车制造商中 SUV 占比最高 虽然比我们的预期稍差 3.6%, 但长城汽车 213 年的销量达到 75.4 万辆, 比公司目标高 7.7% 得益于 H6 和 M4 的热销, 期内公司 SUV 销量增长 49% 到 41.7 万辆 我们预计长城汽车 214 年的 SUV 销量会继续曾航 32%, 占比将第一次超过总销量的 6% 相比于广汽集团约 27%, 东风集团股份月 25% 的 SUV 占比, 长城汽车的 SUV 销量占比在主流汽车制造商中最高 预计 214 年 9% 的销量增长来自于 SUV 我们预计中国的 SUV 销量在 213 年强劲增长 5% 之后,214 年将会再增加 25% 长城汽车已经在这一蓬勃发展的细分市场拥有坚实的基础 长城汽车手握 SUV 销量前五名的 2 个产品, 未来将推出 H8 H2, 还有 H7 等产品 在天津二工厂以及徐水工厂投产后, 长城汽车将会在 214 年比 213 年中额外新增 4 万台的 SUV 产能 因此, 我们预计公司 214 年 9% 的销量增长将会来自于 SUV 产品 股价表现 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 恒生指数 资料来源 :Wind 6 5 4 3 2 1 长城汽车股票数据 以强大的品牌认可度为支撑, 持续提升产品档次 长城汽车在自主品牌所有车型销量最高的 6 款车中占据 3 款, 足见市场认可度较高 我们认为新推出的 H8 将会成为公司里程碑式的产品, 因为推出之后市场反应良好, 这将有助于推升公司品牌形象 公司已经成功地通过产品升级, 将旗舰 SUV 产品 H6 的主打产品价格从 9.6 万人民币提升到 11.6 万人民币 更重要的是, 我们认为 214 年初即将推出的 H2 将会成为推动 214 年销量增长 5% 的产品, 因为这款产品设计出众, 而在 8-1 万元级别市场中没有强劲的对手 收盘价 ( 港币 $) 39.4 流通股本 ( 百万 )* 1,326 总市值 ( 港币 $ 百万 )* 119,855 流通量 (%) 43.6 日均成交额 HK$ 237m 52 周最高 / 最低 51.9 / 2.6 主要控股股东保定创新长城资产管理 (56.4) 每股净资产 ( 港币 $) 7.4 负债率 (%) 49 买入长城汽车, 分享中国 SUV 市场高增长 长城汽车是中国汽车市场成长最快的 SUV 领域最大的生产商, 公司已经确立了坚实的市场地位并且将在 214 年发布更多具有竞争力的车型 即使我们鉴于低于预期的 213 年销量分别下调公司 213-215 年盈利预测 1%,2% 和 5%, 我们对公司的长期增长潜力依然充满信心 目前 1 倍 214 年 PE 十分吸引, 维持买入评级以及 56 港元的目标价 盈利预测 截至 31/12 211A 212A 213E 214E 215E 营业额 ( 人民币百万 ) 3,89 43,16 55,792 7,994 8,273 经营盈利 ( 人民币百万 ) 4,77 6,716 9,95 11,674 12,746 净利润 ( 人民币百万 ) 3,426 5,692 8,476 1,13 1,957 每股实际盈利 ( 人民币 ) 1.22 1.87 2.79 3.29 3.6 每股股息 ( 人民币 ).3.57.7.82.9 每股账面价值 ( 人民币 ) 6.5 7.11 9.24 11.73 14.46 市盈率 (x) 25.8 16.8 11.3 9.6 8.8 股息率 (%) 1.% 1.8% 2.2% 2.6% 2.9% 市净率 (x) 5.3 4.46 3.44 2.71 2.2 资料来源 : 2
广汽传祺 GA3 奇瑞艾瑞泽 7 江铃驭胜 华泰圣达菲 陆风 奇瑞 E3 中华 H33 长丰猎豹黑金刚 江南奥拓 东风风神 S3 英伦 SC6 东风风神 A6 江淮瑞风 S5 海马福美来 全球鹰 GC7 长安 CX2 众泰 58 全球鹰远景 力帆 62 全球鹰自由舰全球鹰熊猫 奔腾 X8 海马 M3 海马骑士 MG3 英伦金刚 江淮和悦 中华 V5 全球鹰 GX7 东南 V3 菱悦英伦 SC7 长安奔奔比亚迪 F MINI 北汽 E 系列 力帆 X6 众泰 Z3 奔腾 B5 广汽传祺 GS5 长安 CS35 奇瑞风云 2 奇瑞瑞虎 比亚迪 F3 长安逸动 比亚迪 S6 比亚迪 L3 荣威 35 奇瑞 QQ 速锐 长安悦翔 长安悦翔 帝豪 EC7 图表 1: 长城汽车在自主品牌中拥有最强的市场地位 3 人民币万 2 1 H5 C5 H6 M4 C3 平均月销量 - 5, 1, 15, 2, 25, 3, 35, 自主 SUV 自主轿车日系韩系德系美系 1. 以车单价和车型销量来看, 长城汽车在整个市场中的优势不明显 ; 但是在自主品牌里面, 长城汽车的竞争力突出 2. 以平均月销量计算, 长城汽车在自主品牌销量最大的 6 款车型中占 3 款, 这三款车的平均月销量在 1 万台以上 3. H6/M4 是自主品牌的 SUV 销量前两名,H6 是自主品牌销量最大的车型 4. C3 是除了吉利的帝豪 EC7 之外销量最好的自主品牌轿车注 : 平均月销量是 213 年前 11 个月的平均月销量 ; 样本中一共有 19 款车, 其中轿车 12 款,SUV 7 款 ; 价格选取每一款 SUV 在易车网当中关注度最高的型号作为代表 Source: 易车网 515fa.com 图表 2:9-12 万和 18-21 万是 SUV 销量最大的价格区间,H6 H8 的定价正切合这两个规模最大的市场 价格区间 ( 人民币万 ) >39 36-39 27-3 24-27 21-24 18-21 15-18 12-15 9-12 6-9 -6 价格区间 ( 人 民币万 ) 5,167 >39 3 8,543 36-39 2 5,96 27-3 2 13,745 24-27 2 H8 所在区间 24,132 21-24 5 51,2 18-21 7 29,7 15-18 H6 所在区间 2,377 12-15 6 57,85 9-12 24,828 6-9 7 平均月销量 4,799 M4 所在区间 -6 6-1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, - 5 1 15 2 11 19 车型数量 1. 9-12 万和 18-21 万是 SUV 销量最大的两个区间, 这也是长城 H6 和 H8 所在的区间 2. 18-21 万区间共有 7 个车型, 一个月平均销量超过 5.1 万台, 车均月销量超过 72 台, H8 只需要攫取 5% 的市场份额 (25 台 / 月 ) 即可以实现盈亏平衡注 : 平均月销量是 213 年前 11 个月的平均月销量 ; 样本中一共有 7 款 SUV; 价格选取每一款 SUV 在易车网当中关注度最高的型号作为代表 Source: 易车网 515fa.com 3
江铃驭胜 日产奇骏 华泰圣达菲 马自达 CX-5 陆风 宝马 X1 长丰猎豹黑金刚 江淮瑞风 S5 众泰 58 三菱新劲炫 奥迪 Q3 雪佛兰科帕奇 奔腾 X8 海马骑士 起亚狮跑 中华 V5 全球鹰 GX7 现代途胜 力帆 X6 福特翼搏 广汽传祺 GS5 别克昂科拉 哈弗 H5 长安 CS35 奇瑞瑞虎 比亚迪 S6 图表 3:H2 如果定价在 8-1 万人民币将非常有竞争力, 因为这个区间没有强劲的竞争对手 6 5 丰田普拉多 4 奔驰 GLK3 奥迪 Q5 3 现代全新胜达 丰田汉兰达 2 1 福特翼虎 起亚智跑 丰田 RAV4 日产逍客 长城 M4 现代 ix35 大众途观本田 CR-V 哈弗 H6 H8 H? H2-2, 4, 6, 8, 1, 12, 14, 16, 18, 2, 自主德系日系美系韩系 1. 绿线以外是明星车型, 这些车型单价或者销量较高 长城汽车在中低价位 SUV 市场优势显著 2. 8-1 万元级别的 SUV 平均月销量接近 3.2 万台, 一共有 13 款车, 平均每款车的月销量只有不足 2,5 台, 并且没有一款车月均销量超过 8, 台, 因此这个区间没有强劲的竞争对手 以长城 H2 的产品竞争力来看, 应该可以轻松打败这个区间的大部分车型 注 : 平均月销量是 213 年前 11 个月的平均月销量 ; 样本中 SUV 7 款 ; 价格选取每一款 SUV 在易车网当中关注度最高的型号作为代表 Source: 易车网 515fa.com 图表 4 : 盈利预测变动 ( 人民币百万 ) 此前收入 57,3 71,467 8,719 净利润 8,549 1,262 11,482 每股收益 ( 人民币 ) 2.81 3.37 3.77 目前收入 55,792 7,994 8,273 净利润 8,476 1,13 1,957 每股收益 ( 人民币 ) 2.79 3.29 3.6 变动收入 -2.2% -.7% -.6% 净利润 -.9% -2.4% -4.6% 每股收益 ( 人民币 ) -.9% -2.3% -4.6% Source: 4
Financial Summary Profit & Loss (RMB m) 211A 212A 213F 214F 215F Financial Ratios 211A 212A 213F 214F 215F Sales of Auto 28,178 4,728 52,717 67,99 76,5 Revenue growth (%) 3.9% 43.4% 29.3% 27.2% 13.1% Auto Parts 1,124 1,574 2,46 2,66 2,926 Operating profit growth (%) 36.8% 64.7% 48.1% 17.3% 9.2% Others 787 858 1,29 1,235 1,297 Reported profit growth (%) 26.9% 66.1% 48.9% 18.1% 9.4% Revenue 3,89 43,16 55,792 7,994 8,273 EPS growth (%) 23.2% 53.4% 48.9% 18.1% 9.4% Cost of sales (22,594) (31,562) (4,461) (51,833) (59,141) Dividend growth (%) 1.% 218.3% 21.6% 18.1% 9.4% Gross profit 7,496 11,599 15,332 19,162 21,132 Dividend payout (%) 15.6% 3.5% 25.% 25.% 25.% Other net income 116 188 141 18 24 Gross profit margin (%) 24.9% 26.9% 27.5% 27.% 26.3% SG&A expenses (3,534) (5,7) (5,523) (7,667) (8,589) Operating profit margin (%) 13.5% 15.6% 17.8% 16.4% 15.9% Operating profit 4,77 6,716 9,95 11,674 12,746 ROE (%) 25.6% 29.8% 34.3% 31.7% 27.7% Finance Income 23 15 79 18 152 ROA (%) 12.4% 15.1% 18.% 17.% 15.3% Associates & JCE (24) 19 74 81 87 Net debt/equity (%).%.%.%.%.% Profit before taxation 4,131 6,841 1,13 11,864 12,984 Net debt/total assets (%).%.%.%.%.% Taxation (62) (1,119) (1,515) (1,78) (1,948) Current ratio (%) 138.5% 133.8% 141.5% 146.5% 156.9% Non-controlling interests 84 3 112 71 8 Interest cover (x) NA NA NA NA NA Net profit 3,426 5,692 8,476 1,13 1,957 Dividend cover (x) 6.4 3.3 4. 4. 4. Balance Sheet (RMB m) 211A 212A 213F 214F 215F Cash Flows (RMB m) 211A 212A 213F 214F 215F Fixed assets 7,392 9,19 12,457 15,963 18,953 Profit before taxation 4,131 6,841 1,13 11,864 12,984 Associates & JCE 7 42 42 42 42 Depreciation & amortization 72 89 968 1,253 1,524 Others 5,298 7,661 7,696 7,96 8,28 Interest income 23 1 (79) (18) (152) Non-current assets 12,761 16,722 2,194 23,911 27,23 Others (464) (63) 23 Inventories 2,777 2,695 3,144 4,393 5,184 Change in working capital 678 (2,222) (1,42) (987) (65) Debtors & prepayments 1,393 16,728 21,299 26,869 3,269 Tax paid (62) (1,119) (1,515) (1,78) (1,948) Bank deposits & cash 7,17 6,337 7,931 1,89 15,164 Operating activities 4,449 4,337 8,97 1,242 11,759 Others 97 87 87 87 87 Purchase of non-current assets (3,759) (4,445) (4,463) (4,97) (4,816) Current assets 2,374 25,848 32,461 42,159 5,75 Disposal of non-current assets 7 179 Bank & other borrowings - - - - - Dividends received Trade & payables 14,43 18,782 22,4 28,233 31,773 Others 87 329 Taxation 284 537 537 537 537 Investing activities (3,664) (3,936) (4,463) (4,97) (4,816) Current liabilities 14,714 19,319 22,937 28,77 32,31 New loans raised 186 282 Others 1,4 1,67 1,67 1,67 1,67 Repayment of loans 181 281 Non-current liabilities 1,4 1,67 1,67 1,67 1,67 Dividends paid (663) (1,36) (2,4) (2,395) (2,587) Net assets 17,22 21,643 28,112 35,693 43,991 Others 3,752 (631) Share capital 3,42 3,42 3,42 3,42 3,42 Financing activities 3,456 (1,14) (2,4) (2,395) (2,587) Premium & reserves 13,77 18,472 24,829 32,339 4,556 Inc/(dec) in cash 4,241 (73) 1,594 2,878 4,355 Shareholders' funds 16,75 21,514 27,871 35,381 43,599 Cash at beginning of year 2,874 7,48 6,337 7,931 1,89 Non-controlling interests 284 129 241 312 392 Foreign exchange effect (8) (8) Total equity 17,34 21,643 28,112 35,693 43,991 Cash at end of year 7,17 6,337 7,931 1,89 15,164 Source: Guosen Securities (HK) 5
Information Disclosures Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions Stock Ratings: Buy: A return potential of 1 % or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Neutral: A return potential ranging from -1% to 1% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sell: A negative return of 1% or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sector Ratings: Overweight: The sector will outperform the overall market by 1% or higher within 6 12 months. Neutral: The sector performance will range from -1% to 1% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Underweight: The sector will underperform the overall market by 1% or lower within 6 12 months. Interest disclosure statement The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates serves as an officer of the listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies. Guosen Securities (HK) Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively Guosen Securities (HK) ) has no disclosable financial interests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no investment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no individual employed by the listed companies. Disclaimers The prices of securities may fluctuate up or down. It may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of Guosen Securities (HK) and does not constitute any buying/selling or dealing agreement in relation to the securities mentioned. Guosen Securities (HK) may be seeking or will seek investment banking or other business (such as placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or proprietary trading in such securities) with the listed companies. Individuals of Guosen Securities (HK) may have personal investment interests in the listed companies. This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not guaranteed by Guosen Securities (HK). This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation to anyone. Clients are wholly responsible for any investment decision based on this report. Clients are advised to consider whether any advice or recommendation contained in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances. This report is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. This report is for distribution only to clients of Guosen Securities (HK). Without Guosen Securities (HK) s written authorization, any form of quotation, reproduction or transmission to third parties is prohibited, or may be subject to legal action. Such information and opinions contained therein are subject to change and may be amended without any notification. This report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guosen Securities (HK) and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 6
信息披露 公司评级 行业评级及相关定义 公司评级买入 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅在 1% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅介于 -1% 与 1% 之间 ; 减持 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘跌幅大于 1% 行业评级超配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报高于市场整体水平 1% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报介于市场整体水平 -1% 与 1% 之间 ; 低配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报低于市场整体水平 1% 以上 利益披露声明 报告作者为香港证监会持牌人士, 分析员本人或其有联系者并未担任本研究报告所评论的上市法团高级管理人员, 也未持有其任何 财务权益 本报告中, 经纪有限公司及其所属关联机构 ( 合称) 并无持有该公司须作出披露的财务权益 ( 包 括持股 ), 在过去 12 个月内与该公司并无投资银行关系, 亦无进行该公司有关股份的庄家活动 本公司员工均非该上市公司的雇 员 免责条款证券价格有时可能非常波动 证券价格可升可跌, 甚至变成毫无价值 买卖证券未必一定能够赚取利润, 反而可能会招致损失 本研究报告内容既不代表 的推荐意见, 也并不构成所涉及的个别股票的买卖或交易要约 或其集团公司有可能会与本报告涉及的公司洽谈投资银行业务或其它业务 ( 例如配售代理 牵头经办人 保荐人 包销商或从事自营投资于该股票 ) 国信证券( 香港 ) 不排除其员工有个人投资于本报告内所提及的上市法团 报告中的资料均来自公开信息, 我们力求准确可靠, 但对这些信息的正确性 公正性及完整性不做任何保证 本报告没有考虑到个 别客户特殊的投资目标 财务状况或需要, 并不构成个人投资建议, 客户据此投资, 责任自负 客户在阅读本研究报告时应考虑报 告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其个人特定状况 本报告并不存在招揽或邀约购买或出售任何证券的企图 本报告仅向特定客户传送, 未经国信证券香港书面授权许可, 任何人不得引用 转载以及向第三方传播, 否则可能将承担法律责任 研究报告所载的资料及意见, 如有任何更改, 本司将不作另行通知 在一些管辖区域内, 针对或意图向该等区域内的市民 居民 个人或实体发布 公布 供其使用或提供获取渠道的行为会违反该区域内所适用的法律或规例或令 受制于任何注册或领牌规定, 则本研究报告不适用于该等管辖区域内的市民 居民或身处该范围内的任何人或实体 7