31 2 2007 3 Vol1 31, No12 March 2007 15 Population Research,,, ; 2020 420 435 kg, 18 14136 ; 450 kg, 14173,,,, :, ;, ; : ; ;,, :100101 21 20,,, (2010 2020 2030 2040 ),,,,, (2020 ) (2030 2040 ), 1 1. 1 : 20 5, 5 ; 300kg 350kg, 21 (1),20 5, 5 1-3,1949 2005 15, 1960,,
16 31, 1965 20 %, 15 % 1949 ( 1), : 4 8, ;, 1959 1960 1966 2 1984 1985 1990 4, 5 6 1 1949 2 1949 2 2. 5 3 3. 5 4 4. 5 6, 5,1996 1999 4, 5. 05, 400kg, 1998 5. 12, 20 5 2000, 4 4. 65,2005 4. 84,, 5,, : vi = ( Yi - Yi ) / Yi, vi i, Yi i, Yi
2 17 (2) 1980 360kg 1990 390kg, ; 2, 1978 30477, 3, 300kg,1977 1979 3 318kg, ( 3) 1982 1984 3. 5 4, 35450 40731,1983 1985 375kg,, 1977,1980 55 % ;1987 1980, 84 % 131 % 178 % 113 %, 1010. 1,,1993 1996 45649 50454,1996 1999 400kg,, ( 3) 1992,1995 54 % 65 % 20 % 62 %, 1829. 4 ;2005 1995, 47 % 72 % 326 % 103 %, 2483, 3 1949, 1980 360kg 1990 390kg 1987 20. 3kg 5. 4kg 3. 5kg 8. 8kg, 1980 1 ;2005 59. 2kg 22. 0kg 21. 9kg 39. 1kg, 1987 3 5,, 1978 1987, ;1993 2005, 21 1. 2 :,1979,1980 ;, (1) ( 4),1949, 1949 2003 2549. 2 10 4 hm 2, 47. 2 10 4 hm 2 1949,
18 31, 3 4 4 1949 (2), 1979, 20 80,1999, 5 2005 1. 22 (18. 3 ) 1996 13003 10 4 hm 2 (19. 5 ) 800 10 4 hm 2 (112 ), 6. 2 % 537. 7 10 4 hm 2, 87 %,,2002 2003 142. 55 10 4 hm 2 223. 73 10 4 hm 2, 84 % 88 %, 21 (3),, 1950 0. 185hm 2 (2. 78 ) 1980 0. 136hm 2 (2. 04 ) 21 0. 101hm 2 (1. 51 ), 2/ 5 ( 5 ),, 1. 3 : 5 1949 4, 1 6 ; 30 4, 1/ 3 ;21, (1) 4, 1 6,
2 19,1970,, 4 350 375kg, 1. 4 1. 5, 1/ 4 ; 3. 5t/ hm 2, 4000 hm 2 (6 ), 1/ 3,,, (2) 30 4, 1/ 3, 1971 2003 8. 52 12. 92, 4. 4 ;, 2. 5 5,, 400kg, 34 %, 2/ 3,21 20 30, ; 2 1949,,,, 21,,,,, 2. 1,,, (1) ( ), 1984 243kg,, 2005 158kg ( 6),,,,,,, (2),, 260kg 1978 ( ) 24718kg,, 1990 26211kg 260kg,1995, 2005 210kg ( 7) 1978,,,, 1985,, 80 %, 1990 83 %, 1 4,, ;,,
20 31 6 : 7 : 2005 (3),,, 100kg ( ),1980 150kg,1985 134. 8kg,1995 97kg,, 80kg ( 8), ( ),, ( 1/ 10 ), 1 1. 2,100kg, 1980 2005 25, 1,,,,, 2. 2,,,,,
2 21 8 : (1) 1978 61. 9 % 2005 55. 4 %, 1985 40. 7 % 2005 28. 4 %,,, (2), 1978 1. 9 % 2005 8. 8 %( 9 ),, ; 1985 10. 8 % 2001 20. 6 %( 9 ),, 9 ( ) ( ) (3),, ;,,,,,,, 2. 3,, 2001 ( 1) 6
22 31 1 ( ) ( 3 ) 3553 9000 3776 180 436 3915 1468 690 782 ( ) 93 0 4. 6 11. 4 6. 2 99. 5 123. 8 33. 6 125 ( ) 25. 7 1000 0 1. 6 2. 4 387. 8 101. 4 40. 2 24. 2 :..,2001 :20 22 3,,, ( ), ; :1cal = 4. 186J,,,, ;,,, 0. 85 6, (1), (, ) ;, (, ) 9, : = / = /,, ( 2) 2 (kcal) (g) (g) ( %) ( %) 1996 2225. 04 60. 99 83. 24 31. 97 47. 83 1997 2191. 01 60. 53 84. 99 34. 06 47. 55 1998 2243. 76 61. 72 88. 64 34. 51 48. 48 1999 2330. 05 64. 14 94. 68 35. 73 47. 93 2000 2427. 58 66. 35 102. 01 36. 51 48. 15 2001 2411. 37 66. 05 101. 31 36. 44 48. 90 2002 2568. 70 71. 09 118. 54 41. 77 43. 37 2003 2644. 78 72. 73 123. 75 41. 98 44. 55 2004 2563. 76 69. 93 117. 25 39. 86 47. 54 2005 2621. 50 71. 40 124. 39 41. 82 44. 76 : 1996 2005, 1985 2103. 69kcal, 2005 2621. 50kcal ; 1985 57. 05g 2005 71. 04g ; 59. 34g 124. 39g ( 2),,,
2 23,, 1985 21. 63 % 2005 41. 82 %,,,, ;,, 1985 50. 19 % 2001 44. 8 % ( 10),,,, ;,, ;,, 2400kcal, 40 %, 45 %, 10 (2), 1978 2229kcal 2503kcal,, ; 60,,, 1978 4 % 2005 16 %( 3 11),,, 1978 26g 2005 52g, 1978 74 % 2005 51 %, 11
24 31,,,, 3 (kcal) (g) (g) ( %) ( %) 1996 2497. 39 65. 60 45. 19 9. 93 62. 34 1997 2466. 75 64. 82 46. 06 10. 59 61. 98 1998 2459. 65 64. 70 46. 09 10. 77 60. 97 1999 2453. 67 64. 63 46. 87 11. 30 59. 64 2000 2503. 32 65. 61 50. 47 11. 82 60. 38 2001 2419. 63 63. 31 50. 16 12. 41 59. 79 2002 2414. 10 63. 04 51. 18 12. 74 59. 74 2003 2285. 59 60. 18 49. 61 13. 86 57. 33 2004 2220. 71 59. 07 46. 26 13. 81 55. 02 2005 2199. 83 58. 22 51. 56 16. 29 51. 37 : 1990 2005 2020,, 2010 (2001-2010 ), 2010 ( 4),, 4 (2621. 50kcal) (124. 39g), ( ) 2300 2250 2320, (71. 40g) (g) 77 80 75 (g) 70 80 65 (2199. 83kcal) (58. 22) (51. 56) : 2001-2010,,, ; 3,,,, TFR = 1. 8,, + 2000 + 2005 + 2005 + 2020 + = 0. 99, 2010 2020 2030 13. 53 14. 36 14. 73 ; 2033, 14. 73, 2003 1. 81 3. 1 (2010 2030 ) 2003 : (1) 2010 : 152kg 13kg 10kg 149kg 40kg 29kg 18kg 15kg 17kg ; 391kg,
2 25, (2) 2020, 147kg 15kg 10kg 157kg 48kg 28kg 28kg 17kg 19kg ; 437kg,, (3) 2030, 146kg 20kg 10kg 162kg 53kg 28kg 41kg 17kg 19kg ; 472kg,, :,,,21, 50kg 19kg 11kg 35kg, 2. 5 1. 8 0. 4 1. 0,, 2000 2001-2010 2003,, ( 5), 3. 0 1. 8 0. 5 1. 2, 2010 400 410kg 2020 420 435kg 2030 2040 450 470kg,2010 13. 53, 400 410kg, 5. 41 5. 55 ;2020 14. 36, 420 435kg, 6. 03 6. 25 ; 2033, 14. 73, 450 470kg, 6. 63 6. 92 5. 0, 5 % 10 %, 2020, 5. 5 6. 0, 5 10 % 20 %, 3. 2 (2010 2030 ) (1), 0. 1, 670 10 4 hm 2 800 10 4 hm 2 7, (2001-2010) ( 600 ), 514 % 616 %, 0. 1, 1998, 1997 2003, 157. 4 104hm 2, 21. 5 10 4 hm 2 104. 7 10 4 hm 2, 2/ 3, 2005, 30. 67 10 4 hm 2, 13. 87 10 4 hm 2,, (2) 21, 1. 2 hm 2 (18 ) 2005 1. 22 10 8 hm 2 (18. 3 ), 2010 1. 28 hm 2,1996 > 25 607. 15 10 4 hm 2 ( 80. 33 %), 2010 588. 2 10 4 hm 2 ;,1998 2005 669. 87 10 4 hm 2, 85 %, 2010, 261. 6 10 4 hm 2,2010 1. 2 hm 2 (18 )
26 31 3 5 2010 2020 2033 40 % 49 % < 40 % 30 % 39 % (kcal) 2400 2500 2500 2600 > 2600 (g) 77 (30 %) 80 (50 %) > 80 (50 %) (g) 70 78 (35 %) > 78 (35 %) (kg) 175 165 150 140 (kg) 152 140 130 115 (kg) 13 15 15 (kg) 149 157 162 (kg) 40 48 53 (kg) 10 10 10 (kg) 30 50 30 50 40 50 (kg) 17 20 20 (kg) 18 28 40 50 (kg) 20 25 25 30 (kg) 400 410 420 435 450 470 ( ) 13. 53 14. 36 14. 73 (10 8 t) 5. 41 5. 55 6. 03 6. 25 6. 63 6. 92 3, (3) 2010 2030, 1. 2 hm 2 (18 ), 1998,,,,,, 2010, 1. 2 hm 2 (18 ) (4) 2020 2030, 1/ 5, 2010 0. 88hm 2 (1. 35 ) 2020 0. 82hm 2 (1. 26 ) 2035 0. 78hm 2 (1. 22 ), 21 13 % 19 % 23 %,, 3. 3 (2010 2030 ) 1980,, 8 14, 2010 2020 2030 5. 92 6. 75 7. 34, 2010 5. 7 2020 6. 25 2030 6. 77 ( 6),, 2010 400 410kg 2020 2030 :,,2020 2030 420 450kg ;, 435 470kg, 2020 2030, 7, 18. 5, 10,, 8 ;
2 27 15, 19, 10, 1. 9kg/ m 3, 2050 7, 18, 2030 2040 450kg ;,, 6 (A EZ) 2010 2020 2030 2050 7. 05 5192 6177 7147 6. 25 6. 85 6. 75 7. 25 5. 80 6. 60 7. 34 5. 70 6. 59 5. 92 6. 75 7. 34 5. 70 6. 25 6. 77 4,,, ;2020 420 435kg, 18 14. 36 ; 450kg, 14. 73, 18,,, :, ;, ;,,, 4. 1 :,,,,,, 1978 1987, ;1993 2000 390 400kg,, 30 40, 400 450kg,,,,, :,,, ;,,
28 31,,,, 400kg, 1. 5,, 400 450kg,,,,,1980,,,,,,,,,,, (2001 35. 4 %, 55. 5 %),,,,,, 412 :,, 2000, 4, 30 ( FAO) ( IIASA) 20,,,90 %,,,, :,, " " " ",, " ",,,,,,,,, 1, ;,,, 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
2 29,,, 144,,,,, : 1. 2005. :,2006 2. (1949-1996). :,1997 3. 50. :,2003 4. 1997 2005 [ EB/ OL ]. http :/ / www. mlr. gov. cn/ query/ gtzygk/ index. htm 5,,. :1949 2003.,2005 ;24 (1) : 35 44 6,..,2004 7.. :,2001 :72 8..,1999 ;21 (6) :5 8 9,..,1996 ;11 (3) : 197 202 10,. 21.,1997 ;33 36 11.., 2002 ; 21 (3) : 294 304 12..,2003 ;11 :11 14 13. 21.,1995 ;11 :98 101 14.., 1996 ;10 (4) :33 38 15..,2000 Future Food Security and Arable Land Guarantee for Population Development in China Abstract :The study aims to explore food security and arable land guarantee for population development in China. The result s indicate that the increase of future population and food consumption will be definitely coupled with a decrease in total arable land and per capita arable land area, as well as an increase in per capita food consumption and total food de2 mand. The findings highlight that a total of 120 million ha of arable land will have to be reserved for ensuring grain de2 mand of about 1. 44 billion people at a per capita consumption level of 420-435 kg grain. And at a per capita consump2 tion level of 450 kg grain, the grain production capacity of arable land could meet grain demand of about 1. 47 billion people - estimated peak of the Chinese population. However, further increase in per capita grain occupancy is not opti2 mistic, thanks to the restriction of limited arable land resources. The relationship between arable land area, food pro2 duction and population suggest s that emphasis on future food security be transferred into grain security, and the focus be placed on food production restricted by arable land and on the increasing grain consumption driven by population growth. Thus, special attention should be paid, on the one hand, to the arable land area and food production, i. e., im2 provement in land productivity, and on the other hand, to the security of food production and consumption through for2 mation of moderate consumption ideology and establishment of reasonable food structure for proper intake of animal and plant nutrition. The study concludes that both production and consumption factors should be taken into consideration for ensuring the Chinese food security and arable land for population development in the middle and long run. Keywords :Food security ; Arable land guarantee ; Population development Author : Feng Zhiming is Professor, Center for Resources Science, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Re2 sources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences. ( : :2007-02)