29 12 1 21-53519888-1922 Ch57261821@yahoo.com.cn 11 12.78 1.6 95.36 1 114.88 6 3 6% 8 35.% 3.% 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.%.% -5.% -1.% -15.% 9-6 9-6 9-7 9-7 9-7 9-8 9-8 9-8 9-9 9-9 9-1 9-1 9-11 9-11 9-11 9-12 EPS PE 8A 9E 1E 8A 9E 1E PBR 926 11.72.47.47.59 24.94 24.94 19.86 2.45 24 31.9.71 1. 1.2 43.79 31.9 25.91 3.64 6777 6.87.3.9.3 229. 76.33 22.9 3.55 A 2 11.53.44.44.61 26.2 26.2 18.9 3.69 3 6648 17.58.24.21.78 73.25 83.71 22.54 4.56 SL9-ALT1 6639 14.29.33.3.51 43.3 47.63 28.2 3.86 29 11 3 1
... 4... 4... 4... 4... 5... 6... 6... 7... 7... 9... 1... 1... 12... 13... 13... 15... 15... 15... 17... 18... 18... 2... 2... 21... 21 28 12 1 2
1... 5 2... 5 3... 6 4 2-24... 8 5... 8 6... 9 7... 1 8... 1 9... 11 1... 11 11... 12 12... 13 13... 14 14 /... 14 15 /... 15 16... 16 17... 16 18... 16 19... 16 2... 17 21... 17 22... 18 23... 18 24... 19 25... 19 26 1982 M2... 2 27... 21 28 1... 23 1... 6 2 PB... 21 3... 22 4... 22 5... 22 6... 23 28 12 1 3
1982-2 GDP 26.8% 5-1 19 6 8 213 213-215 22 193-1935 199-1995 7 7 68 1969 9 28 12 1 4
1 CEIC 19 6 6 2 28 12 1 5
CEIC 197-198 1972-1973 24.24% 26.83% 1973 3 25% 5 23 14.6 22 9.23 213 213 215 213 3 1 4. 35. 3. 25. 2. 15. 1. 5.. CEIC 28 12 1 6
1999 12.59 8.52 1.28 69.33 74.6 8.93.68 2 12.69 8.61 1.32 69.48 74.26 8.56.68 21 12.8 8.74 1.34 69.62 74.46 8.22.68 22 12.91 8.88 1.36 69.76 74.65 7.96.69 23 13.1 9.1 1.4 7.68 75.61 8.11.69 24 13.12 9.13 1.43 7.87 75.86 7.97.7 25 13.22 9.25 1.46 71.7 76.1 7.89.7 26 13.32 9.36 1.51 71.26 76.34 7.89.7 27 13.43 9.46 1.55 71.45 76.58 7.95.7 28 13.54 9.55 1.6 71.64 76.83 8.6.71 29 13.65 9.65 1.66 71.84 77.7 8.21.71 21 13.77 9.73 1.73 71.99 77.24 8.17.71 215 14.3 9.99 2.15 72.74 78.5 6.97.7 22 14.72 1.4 2.45 73.43 78.83 5.21.68 225 15.4 1.18 2.97 74.7 79.56 3.54.68 23 15.25 1.9 3.55 74.69 8.8 2.34.66 235 15.38 9.38 3.96 75.27 8.53 1.41.61 24 15.44 9.58 4.1 75.75 8.97.13.62 245 15.38 9.5 4.19 76.19 81.4-1.3.62 25 15.22 9.39 4.38 76.63 81.83-2.56.62 7 22 14 7 4%8 5 8 9 27% 24% 9 28 12 1 7
9 4 2-24 CEIC 5 28 12 1 45,. 4,. 35,. 3,. 25,. 2,. 15,. 1,. 5,.. CEIC 1.9.8.7.6.5.4.3.2.1 8
6 CEIC R.9 Model Summary Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate 1.972(a).944.942 7.8259 a Predictors: (Constant), 215-22 6% 213-215 28 12 1 9
7 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 CEIC 1.4 1.2 1.8.6.4.2 197 198-1982 8 28 12 1 1
CEIC 9 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5.35.3.25.2.15.1.5 -.5 -.1 CEIC 1 CEIC 28 12 1 11
11 6 5.3.25 4 3 2 1 CEIC >.7.2.15.1.5 Model Summary Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate 1.787(a).619.62 2.47214 a Predictors: (Constant), M2 2 M2 29.42% 18% 18% 28 12 1 12
12 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 CEIC / 1975 3 1976 1982 1994 23-27 4 28 12 1 13
13 CEIC 14 / CEIC / Model Summary Model R R Square Adjusted R Std. Error of 28 12 1 14
Square the Estimate 1.811(a).657.654 417663.17 a Predictors: (Constant), / b Dependent Variable: Existing Home Sales: sa: Annual Rate: US 27 5%, 24 12-27 12 27 12 29 11 15 / CEIC 11 7 28 12 1 15
5.7% 1 1.8 1.2% 1.5 6.2% 1 2.2 1.5% 1.6 67 5 14.7% 12.6% 11.8% 1.4% 9.6% 3 2.9% 2.1%.8% 67 5 4.7% 3.1% 3.% 2.8% 2.6% 1.3% 11 17813 / 9 2482 / 9 1858 / 16 17 2 16 12 25 2 15 8 4 1 5 Mar-5 Oct-5 May-6 Dec-6 Jul-7 Feb-8 Sep-8 Apr-9 Nov-9 Feb-5 Sep-5 Apr-6 Nov-6 Jun-7 Jan-8 Aug-8 Mar-9 Oct-9-18 19 28 12 1 16
2 21 3 25 2 15 5 45 4 35 3 25 35 3 25 2 25 2 15 1 5 2 15 1 5 15 1 5 1 5 Jan-7 Mar-7 May-7 Jul-7 Sep-7 Nov-7 Jan-8 Mar-8 May-8 Jul-8 Sep-8 Nov-8 Jan-9 Mar-9 May-9 Jul-9 Apr-7 Jun-7 Aug-7 Oct-7 Dec-7 Feb-8 Apr-8 Jun-8 Aug-8 Oct-8 Dec-8 Feb-9 Apr-9 Jun-9 Aug-9 Oct-9 28 12 1 17
12 3 12 9 2 5 1 11 7 5.7% 1 1.8 1.2%1-11 4.42 25.98%1-11 7.52 53.1% 17.21% 22 28 12 1 1 8 6 4 2 wind 23 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 18
35 3 25 2 15 1 5 wind 2 9 21 29 15.79% 12% 1% 21 24 3 2 1-1 -2 wind 321 4 21 25 28 12 1 19
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 29 21 M2 18% M2 18% 26 1982 M2 bloomberg 28 12 1 2
A 3-4 2 PB PBR A 2 11.53 3.12 3.69 24 31.9 8.54 3.64 926 11.72 4.78 2.45 6777 6.87 1.94 3.55 6648 17.58 3.86 4.56 6639 14.29 3.7 3.86 27 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 bloomberg 1 st 28 12 1 21
A 1.1 926 3 12 31. 27A 28A 29E 21E 3338 321 438 5185 % 35-4 26 28 317 33 334 417 % 2 4 1 25.6.47.47.59 PERX 14 18 18 15 1.2 6777 4 12 31. 27A 28A 29E 21E 995 121 685 2283 % -24 22-43 233-113 17 56 188 % - - 228 233 -.18.3.9.3 PERX - 229. 76.33 22.9 1.3 24 29 2764 / 5 28 12 1 22
12 31. 27A 28A 29E 21E 4111 3573 8654 1413 % 46-13 142 2 1157 1227 1711 259 % 83 6 39 2 1.62.71 1. 1.2 PERX 19.19 43.79 31.9 25.91 2 8% 22-28 5% 1% 2.1 6648 5 6% 5 212 1 EPS.78 23 RNAV 21 / 6 12 31. 27A 28A 29E 21E 985 8553 7229 11229 % 16 768-15 55 11 242 218 778 % -15 23-1 257.1.24.21.78 PERX 1758 73.25 83.71 22.54 3 A 21 NAV 2% 28 1 28 12 1 23
14.% 12.% 1.% 8.% 6.% 4.% 2.%.% -2.% -4.% 8-12 9-1 9-2 9-2 9-3 9-4 9-4 9-5 9-6 9-7 9-7 9-8 9-9 9-9 9-1 9-11 9-12 3 wind 7 A 2 11.53.37.44.61 31.16 26.2 18.9 24 31.9.71 1 1.2 33.8 31.9 25.91 648 24.9.7.77 1.16 35.57 32.34 21.47 667 16.52.6.6.9 27.53 27.53 18.36 2146 2.28.46.53.65 44.9 38.26 31.2 6325 22..88.9 1 25. 24.44 22. 6383 15.48.64.78.88 24.19 19.85 17.59 46 16.19.9.34.58 179.89 47.62 27.91 718 17.35.34.44.6 51.3 39.43 28.92 5.25 31.86 23.58 76.81 2.82 2.56 27.24 3. 3.6.16.17 22.5 21.18 1446. 37.86 43.58 38.19 33.18 bloomberg 28 12 1 24
Superperform 2% Outperform 1% In-Line ±1% Underperform 1% Attractive 5% Neutral ±5% Cautious 5% 25