7 2 2011 3 ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH Vol. 7 No. 2 March 2011 1673-1719 (2011) 02-0097-07 1961 2007 77 5 5 6 2 3 8 11 1980 1980 1990 2015 8 11 P426.6 A 7.86% 4 50 0.35 5 6 19 7 8 9 1 1906 2005 0.74 (0.56 0.92) 10 14 1 20 10 2 3 1998 2007 15 2163 m 3 2010-06-03 2010-09-29 2009CB421300 2009BAC51B05 1981 E-mail: liuyuny@cma.gov.cn Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2011, 7 (2): 97 103 9 7
www.climatechange.cn 98 2011 1961 2007 5 9 200 mm 400 mm 15 mm 77 1 1961 2007 77 19 1961 2007 7 1 1 5 9 13 5 9 1 77 50 EOF mm/10a Fig. 1 Distributions of the trend of seasonal and annual precipitation at 77 representative stations in Northwest China arid region in recent 50 years (unit: mm/10a) 5 9 EOF REOF 10 76% 2 REOF 4 EOF REOF 2a 16 17 Morlet M-K 18 2 2b 50 3 2c 9 8 Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2011, 7 (2): 97 103
2 99 2 4 Fig. 2 The first four REOF eigenvectors of rainy season precipitation in Northwest China arid region (The relative large value regions are shaded) 14 III 17 IV 4 15 2d V 7 2.3.1 5 11 4 REOF 5 4a 4e 3 I 24 1 II 1980 1990 4b 4d 10 1998 2007 3 Fig. 3 Five rainy season precipitation subareas of Northwest China arid region 1980 Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2011, 7 (2): 97 103 9 9
www.climatechange.cn 100 2011 4 11 Fig. 4 Nomaly curves, 11-year binomial smoothed curves and linear tendencies of rainy season precipitation (a) (e) from the first to the fifth subarea of Northwest China arid region, respectively 2 3 1970 3 1980 2 1980 2.3.2 Morlet 1961 1960 1980 2 2007 5 2 3 2.3.3 M-K 6 6b 8 11 5d UF UB 13 14 5 6 2 3 5 6 5b 5c 5e 5a 3 6c 1980 6a 1980 1970 6 5 6e 1990 1 0 0 Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2011, 7 (2): 97 103
2 101 (a) (e) from the first to the fifth subarea of Northwest China 5 arid region, respectively Fig. 5 Wavelet-cycles of rainy season precipitation in Northwest China (a) (e) from the first to the fifth subarea of Northwest China arid region, respectively (The positive wavelet coefficient values in left panels are shaded, and wavelet variances are plotted in right panels ) 6 M-K Fig. 6 Mann-Kendall test of rainy season precipitation series 6d 1980 Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2011, 7 (2): 97 103 1 0 1
www.climatechange.cn 102 2011 1) 8~11 2000 2006 5 9 8 11 2) 1980 13 14 5 6 2 3 8 11 2004 13 14 3) 1980 1980 21 1990 2015 8 11 20 21 22 M-K 14 15 1998 1980 21 [2], [4],, [6] 1) 1980 2000 [8] 10 [10],, 2015 2) [1] IPCC. Climate change 2007: the physical scientific basis. Contribution of working group I to the forth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [M]. Cambridge, UK and New York, USA: Cambridge University Press, 2007,,. [J]., 2000, 24 (6) : 775 784 [3],. [J]., 2001, 20 (4): 362 367, 1997, 21 (3) : 331 340, 2001: 77 154. [J]. [5],. [M]. :,. [M]//.. :, 2005: 11 60 [7],,,. [J]., 2010, 27 (4): 592 599,,. [J]., 2002, 24 (3): 199 225 [9],,,. [J]., 2003, 23 (2): 152 164, 2004, 24 (1): 45 54. [J]. 1 0 2 Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2011, 7 (2): 97 103
2 103 [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16]. [M]. :, 2005: 130 170,, [J]., 2005, 29 (1): 24 32. [18]. [M]. :,,,. [19],,,. [M]. : [J]., 2005, 23 (1): 10 16,. : D, 2006, 36: 951 958, ENSO [J]. [20],,,.. 40a [J]. [21]., 2007, 21 (4): 10 13,,,. [J]., 2004, 23 (2): 245 252 [17],. [J]., 2009, 33 (6): 1247 1258 1999: 42 113, 1992: 158 164 [J]., 2005, 29 (5): 671 681 [J]., 2007, 52 (10): 1199 1206 40 [22],,,. [J]., 2009, 33 (1) : 90 98 Spatiotemporal Variations of Rainy Season Precipitation in Northwest China Arid Region Under Global Warming Liu Yunyun 1, Zhang Xueqin 2, Sun Yang 2, 3 (1 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 2 Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; 3 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China) Abstract: The spatiotemporal characteristics of rainy season precipitation for the five climatic subareas of Northwest China arid region (NCAR) under the background of global warming were investigated by using the daily precipitation data at 77 representative stations from 1961 to 2007, and future trends of the precipitation in the next decades were projected as well. The results are summarized as follows. 1) The precipitation in the NCAR presented significant interannual and interdecadal variabilities. The rainfall in western NCAR exhibited obvious increasing trends, especially in northern Xinjiang and the Yili River valley. There were generally two interannual periodic oscillations of five- to six-year and two- to three-year and one interdecadal cycle of eight- to eleven-year in rainy season precipitation time series in most areas of the NCAR, but in the Hexi Corridor, the thirteen- to fourteen-year long cycle dominated the interdecadal variability. 2) The abrupt change dates of precipitation in the five subareas were distinctively different from each other. The abrupt change from less to more than normal occurred in southern Xinjiang in the early 1980s, and then reached northern Xinjiang in the middle 1980s, the opposite trend abrupt change occurred in the Yili River valley and the Hexi Corridor region in the early 1990s, however no remarkable trend change was detected in the Alxa Plateau. 3) In the next interdecadal cycle, the precipitation will sustain the less than normal regime until the year of 2015 in western NCAR, afterwards return to the more than normal regime; while the precipitation may become more than normal in the next eight to eleven years in the Alxa Plateau. Key words: global warming; Northwest China arid region; precipitation; future trend Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2011, 7 (2): 97 103 1 0 3