CMIP5 MIROC RCP m RCP 0.2m RCP km

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "CMIP5 MIROC RCP m RCP 0.2m RCP km"

美苑宦
5 years ago
Views:

1 udo@irides.tohoku.ac.jp CMIP5MIROC RCP8.50.3mRCP 0.2mRCP km km 2 RCP Key Words : MIROC5, Bruun rule, beach erosion, sea level rise, climate change 1. 1) ) 20 3) IPCCSRES A1B ) 21 3) m 5) 5 1 SRES A1B IPCC5 RCPCMIP5 6)7)8) CMIP5 MIROC CMIP54 I_239

2 RCP2.6 N A RCP4.5 N A M Indian S Pacific Atlantic M Indian S Pacific Atlantic RCP6.0 N A An RCP8.5 N A An M Indian S Pacific Atlantic M Indian S Pacific Atlantic An An -1MIROC5RCP2.6RCP4.5 RCP6.0RCP NASAnM [m] 9) RCPRepresentative Concentration PathwaysMIROC5 RCPIPCC W/m W/m W/m W/m ) 4 RCP2.6RCP4.5RCP6.0 RCP8.5 Yin 11) CMIP534 RCP mRCP4.50.2mRCP8.50.3m MIROC5RCP mRCP mRCP mRCP mRCP2.6 CMIP3SRESCMIP5RCP SRES A2RCP8.5SRES A1BRCP6.0 SRES B1RCP4.5 7)10) CMIP3CMIP5 1)11) SRES A mRCP mSRES A1B mRCP mSRES B mRCP m CMIP5CMIP3 CMIP5 MIROC5 Yin 11) sea surface elevation global mean thermosteric sea level change kmsea surface elevation global mean thermosteric sea level change RCP NA I_240

3 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5-2MIROC5RCP2.6RCP4.5RCP6.0RCP [m] S An M RCP4.5RCP6.0RCP4.5 RCP6.0 7) RCP m RCP mRCP m RCP m RCP mRCP mRCP mRCP mRCP RCP2.6RCP4.5RCP6.0 RCP8.5 7cm RCP RCP RCP RCP Bruun 12) 77 Bruun 13) 2)3)5)14)15) Dean 16) 17) Bruun Bruun 17) Bruun h Ay (1) h A y A Dean 16) I_241

4 Bruun (1) y y* S h* B h (2) y h * y * S B h h * 2) Hallemeier 19) h 3 3 * 2.28H m H m g Tm (3) H m T m g 2) h * y * (1) h * B h 20) h 2 gt H b s B (4) H b T s H b 21) H s tan L s tan H L H H (5) b s B h 22 A 3) 5) s s ) mm1mm 2 0.2mm0.6mm RCP ADean 16) 0.2mm mm mm mm0.11 NOWPHAS 18 3)5)24) 5 A 2 0.3m0.65m 2 I_242

3. (3) 0.2mm0.6mm h * B h y 0.3m (1)(5)h * B h y 26 h * 115m B h 0.35m (3) -1 (3)h * B h y0.3m (3) [mm] h * [m] B h [m] y [m] 0.2 0.43 0.32.0-10-3 0.6 0.43 0.42.5-4-1 0.2 418 0.32.0-37-17 0.6 418 0.

5 3. (3) 0.2mm0.6mm h * B h y 0.3m (1)(5)h * B h y 26 h * 115m B h 0.35m (3) -1 (3)h * B h y0.3m (3) [mm] h * [m] B h [m] y [m] h * B h y h * h * y4 (3) B h B h B h Ay * y 0.2mm0.6mm2 MIROC5RCP2.6RCP4.5RCP6.0 RCP mm0.6mm 0.2mm RCP2.6614mRCP4.5513mRCP6.0410m -40.2mmRCP2.6RCP4.5RCP6.0RCP I_243

6 -50.6mmRCP2.6RCP4.5RCP6.0RCP RCP2.6RCP4.5RCP6.0RCP8.5 RCP RCP m RCP8.5 RCP m cm RCP8.5512m RCP mRCP mRCP mRCP m 0.6mmRCP2.62 6mRCP4.526mRCP6.024mRCP8.5 25mRCP2.6512m RCP4.5512mRCP6.0512mRCP m 4RCP RCP2.6 RCP4.5RCP6.0 RCP mm 0.6mm RCP km 2 RCP km 2 RCP km 2 RCP km 2 RCP 0.2mm km 2 0.6mm km 2 RCP I_244

7 -20.3m0.65mMIROC54RCP [km 2 ] 0.2mm 0.6mm [km] RCP RCP 0.3m 0.65m m 0.65m m0.65mRCP-2-3 2) A tan Dean 16) 1991 Wiegel 23) 77 2) , m0.65m 2) 2) 3 y1.04x I_245

8 [km 2 ] SLR0.3m SLR0.65m y=2.36x R²=0.95 y=1.47x R²=0.97 y=0.63x R²=0.97 y=1.01x R²= ) [ 2 ] m0.65m 0.2mm0.6mm R m 2) ) 0.65m 2) ) 2) 2) RCP m Bruun 4. MIROC RCP4.5RCP6.0 RCP mRCP mRCP mRCP m RCP km 2 RCP km 2 RCP km 2 RCP km 2 RCP RCP MIROC5 Bruun S-8-1(4) 1) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): Climate Change 2007: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by S. Solomon et al., Cambridge Univ. Press, New York., ) 41 pp ) B2 67pp I_246

9 4) G68I_279-I_ ) 5 B268I_1246-I_ ) Taylor, K.E., R.J. Stouffer, and G.A. Meehl: An Overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, , ) CMIP3 CMIP5 G68I_159-I_ ) B2 68I_1256-I_ ) Moss, R.H., et al.: The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment, Nature, 463, , ) Knutti, R. and J. Sedláek: Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections. Nature climate change, doi: /nclimate1716, ) Yin, J.: Century to multi-century sea level rise projections from CMIP5 models. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L17709, doi: /2012gl052947, ) Bruun, P.: Sea-level rise as a cause of shore erosion, J. Waterways and Harbors Div.,ASCE, 88(WW1), pp , ) Cooper, J.A.G. and O.H. Pilkey: Sea level rise and shoreline retreat: time to abandon the Bruun Rule, Global and Planetary Change, 43, pp , ) FitzGerald, D. M., M. S. Fenster, B. A. Argow and I. V. Buynevich: Coastal impacts due to sea-level rise, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Vol. 36, pp , ) Ranasinghe, R. and M. J. F. Stive: Rising seas and retreating coastlines, Climatic Change, Vol. 97, pp , ) Dean, R. G.: Equilibrium Beach Profiles: Characteristics and Applications, Journal of Coastal Research, 7, pp , ) 40 pp ) Dean, R. G.: BEACH NOURISHMENT: THEORY AND PRACTICE, Advanced Series on Engineering, Vol. 18, pp. 32, ) Hallermeier, R. J.: A profile zonation for seasonal sand beached from wave climate, Coastal Engineering, 4, pp , ) 30 pp ) 4 2 pp ) 47 pp ) pp ) Wiegel, R.L.: ographical Engineering, Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 531 p., ) B2 68I_1251-I_ ) 442p1997 Future Projections of Beach Erosion in using Sea Level Change Data of the MIROC5 model Keiko UDO 1, Yuriko TAKEDA 1, Jun YOSHIDA 2 and Akira MANO 1 1 International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University 2 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tohoku University This study estimates future beach erosion in due to sea level rise using the latest sea level change data of the MIROC5 model for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. In the vicinity of, the sea level rise is estimated to be maximum of 0.3 m for RCP8.5, whereas it is estimated to be 0.2 m for the other RCPs. Then, the beach erosion in is estimated to be maximum of km 2 for RCP8.5 and km for the other RCPs. The beach erosion will be accelerated in future compared to near future for all RCPs. Uncertainties of the estimation due to input data of beach characteristics are evaluated. I_247

mm 400 mm 15 mm EOF mm/10a Fig. 1 Distributions

mm 400 mm 15 mm EOF mm/10a Fig. 1 Distributions 7 2 2011 3 ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH Vol. 7 No. 2 March 2011 1673-1719 (2011) 02-0097-07 1961 2007 77 5 5 6 2 3 8 11 1980 1980 1990 2015 8 11 P426.6 A 7.86% 4 50 0.35 5 6 19 7 8 9 1 1906 2005