2008 05 14 47.36 33.05 3547.72 300 3975.78 3657.43 13532.34 4899.02 4636 4136 3636 3136 2636 2136 070514 070802 071030 080122 080421 300 1 2008.2.15 2 2008.2.13 3 2007.12.27 (8621)61038242 chenyh@gjzq.com.cn (8621)61038257 zhaoli@gjzq.com.cn 969 15A 200011 C PE 14 3-5 CDMA A 此文档仅供诺安基金管理有限公司使用 1
10% ICT 2007 EBITDA / 149%-8.8% 42%EBITADA 52.36% IPTV WCDMA 5 2012 30%55% 15% 2009201020112012 23.1% 13.8%16.0% 16.1%20092010 20112012 14.7%9.9%9.1% 8.9% 1-2 20092010 20112012 0.2%5.3%6.2% 7.3% 2012 63%41% 61% 1-2 2
3-5 F-FMC... 8... 8... 8 ICT... 10... 10... 12... 14 14... 14 3G... 16... 17 ICT... 18... 19... 21... 21... 23... 25... 26 3
2007... 26... 28... 29... 30... 33... 33... 35... 36... 37... 37... 39... 43... 46... 46... 47... 50 1... 8 2 WiFi... 9 3... 9 4... 11 5 NTT 5... 12 6 3... 12 7NTT... 12 8... 12 9... 13 10... 13 11 MOU... 15 12 ARPU... 15 13 ARPU... 15 14 MOU //... 15 152006... 15 16 90%... 16 1707 %... 16 18... 18 4
1974% 2000... 18 20 ICT... 18 212007... 19 222007... 19 232007... 19 242007... 19 25 07... 20 26... 20 27 GDP... 21 28 GDP... 21 29/... 21 30ICT %... 21 31 06 %... 22 322007... 22 33... 23 34... 23 35:... 24 362006 63%... 24 373Q /07... 24 38... 25 39... 25 402007... 25 412006... 25 422007... 26 43... 26 44 07... 26 45... 27 46 07 2/3... 27 47... 27 48... 27 49 ROE... 27 50 ROIC... 27 51/... 28 52... 28 53... 28 54/... 28 55/... 28 56/... 29 5
57... 29 58... 29 592007... 29 60... 29 612007... 29 622007... 31 632007... 31 64 G 22%... 31 65 C 23%... 31 6607 38.7% 42% 32% 25%... 31 67 ARPU... 32 68... 32 69 ARPU... 32 70//... 32 71... 33 72... 34 73... 34 74... 36 75... 37 76... 38 77... 38 78... 38 792012 18% 63% 19%... 39 802012 68% 32%... 39 81... 39 82... 39 83... 39 84... 40 85 2010 20%... 40 862012 30% 15% 55%... 40 87... 41 88... 41 89 ARPU //... 41 90 MOU //... 41 91... 41 92... 42 93-... 42 6
94... 44 95... 44 96... 44 97060708E... 45 98... 46 99... 46 100AT&T S&P500... 46 101SPRINT S&P500... 47 102VERIZON S&P500... 47 103... 47 104... 47 105... 47 106 ROA ATT VERIZON SPRINT... 48 107ROE ATT VERIZON SPRINT... 48 108 07... 48 1092007... 48 1102007... 48 1112007... 48 112ATT 68% 32%... 49 113VERIZON 53% 47%... 49 114SPRINT 84%... 49 1152007... 49 7
1 90% 10 DSL FTTX 8
FMC FMC VPN Wi-Fi /GSM UMA 3C 2 WiFi 3 IP IMS 9
ICT IC IT 10
4 IT IT IT 2007 470 1200 11
4-6 NTT 1998 2003 5 3 5 NTT 5 6 3 7NTT 8 2007 72% 2008 52% PCTV 12
5 PC TV 1 3 1/3 MBB 1000 HD TV 710 50% 910 2011 15 6 9 250T 3T 66% 2002 50% 2007 6 30% Tele Geography CAGR 75% 9 Nemertes 1 2 9 10 ICT 13
353 / 190 / 351 / 122 / 318 242 / 5 ARPU 6 ARPU 3 ARPU ARPU ARPU ARPU 14
11 MOU 12 ARPU IDATE / European Commission 13 ARPU 14 MOU // 152006 2.65 2.63 2.11 2.39 2.4 2.44 2.85 N/A 8% 22% 18% 13% 15% N/A N/A 278 351 270 372 318 190 2.07 3.66 2.19 1.96 2.76 2.53 1.34 N/A 38% 10% 18% 13% 20% N/A N/A 273 122 299 272 242 353 N/A N/A 48 48 143 80 134 51 40 38 48 52 46 11.4 IDATE / European Commission 15
3G 2000 18-28 76% 4 95.5%// 60% 3G 4 16 90% 1707 % iresearch 2-3 CMDA CDMA G C 3G 3G 16
3G 3G 3G 3G 3G 3G 3G 3G 3G 2-3 IPTV VOIP 2007 12 5% 2007 2.1 16% 2000 17
18 1974% 2000 20% 16% 12% 8% 4.6% 5.3% 6.2% 6.7% 7.3% 7.9% 12.3% 10.5% 9.4% 8.5% 16.0% 1001~2000 28.7% 2001~3000 12.4% 3001~5000 8.4% 4% 0% 2002.12 2003.06 2003.12 2004.06 2004.12 2005.06 2005.12 2006.06 2006.12 2007.06 2007.12 501~1000 16.7% 1~500 24.2% 4.4% 5000 5.2% ICT 2007 4.9% () 8% 16%() 63% ICT 17.8% 2.99 32.3%WAP 5.5% 4.1 30% 20 ICT 9.8%- 2.2%- 11.8%- 7.7%- ICT 9.0% 13.7% 9.1% 4.9% 5.0% 5.3% 7.9% 31.9% 38.8% 34.2% 29.6% 28.2% 42.8% 29.6% 66.1% 85.5% 18
212007 222007 2007 30.4%34.1% 21.0% 16.05%16.67% 16.12% 1837 1256 2077 2388 3155 224 232007 242007 43.82% 34.13% 22.18% 23.05% 20.92% 21.09% 3155.4 2388.2 2077.1 1836.8 1256.1 223.9 9090.8 8003.9 16116.6 16189.9 19
22744.2 1339.2 25 07 26 67.16% 50.09% 37.97% 28.20% 32.23% 43.87% 22744.2 16116.6 16189.9 9090.8 8003.9 1339.2 2007 20
GDP 2006 12% GDP 10.70% 4.78% GDP 4% GDP 8% 10% 27 GDP 28 GDP IDATE / European Commission 70% 2005 90.17 149.2, 537.88 2005 ICT GDP 5.28% 6.03% 29/ 30ICT % 21
2007 43% 139% 115% 114% 104% 70% 16% 19.1% 3.1 31 06 % 322007 IDATE / European Commission 22
2007 15.6% 19.2%34.76%9.34% 22.01% 8.59% 6.4% 13.3%14.40% 24.4% 33 34 ATTSKTVERIZONKDDI 47.2% 36.30% 26.10% 23.30% 22.24% 63% 47% 60%2007 78.4% ROE 23
35: 58.31% 66.70% 61.84% 70.60% 69.31% 66.33% 78.40% 36.90% 38.60% 45.50% 55.99% 33.59% 34.94% ROA 4.75% 8.78% 2.45% 10.60% 2.77% 6.16% 8.29% 9.67% -4.50% 5.83% 6.49% 15.47% 6.22% ROE 10.35% 26.10% 6.91% 36.30% 9.42% 22.24% 47.20% 15.83% -7.11% 10.70% 14.74% 23.30% 9.57% bloomberg 2005 022005 508 1 7.22%2006 8% 70% 2627 362006 63% 373Q /07 24
ICT /BB 20062007 31% 32% 20052006 31% 28% 2007 7% 9.38% 200520062007 16.7% 18.65% 17.49% 200420052006 11.35%7.64% 6.51% 3G 38 39 IDATE / Ofcom 402007 412006 IDATE / Ofcom 25
2007 422007 2007 EBITDA / 149%-8.8% 42%EBITADA 52.36% 20.86% 12.90% 31.86% 23.30% 26.87% 53.63% 147.95% 29.89% 32.00% 49.00% 82.1 1 2.03% 13.71% 2.98% 13.10% 7.75% 48.47% 355.99% 20.76% 39.00% 25.00% 68.1 2 5.56% -8.80% 149.22% 6.22% 5.49% 32.59% 347.62% 21.64% 25.00% 14.00% 44.4 4-3.35% 5.70% -6.67% 14.74% 7.40% 52.36% 296.69% 19.25% 42.00% 12.00% 46.9 3 20.86% 13.71% 149.22% 23.30% 26.87% 53.63% 355.99% 29.89% 42.00% 49.00% 100 2007 43 44 07 26
45 46 07 2/3 2007 47 48 49 ROE 50 ROIC 27
51/ 7.40% 7.33% 7.81% 6.91% 5.49% 3.33% 4.22% 3.61% 7.75% 7.72% 7.82% 7.90% 26.87% 23.35% 20.36% 16.49% 52 53 54/ 55/ 28
56/ 57 58 592007 60 612007 29
2005 NGN DSL FTTHFTTB/C+DSL/LAN WIFI IPTV 2006 2006 2007 2006 2007 39% 1980 37%ICT 2006 3.5% 07 4.7% 2006 32% 07 42% 2007 2007 2007 2007 3.7 22% 30% 2007 32%WAP 2006 28% 2007 32% 30
622007 632007 2007 2007 2007 2007 GSM 17.2%CDMA 20.68% C 64 G 22% 65 C 23% 2007 6607 38.7% 42% 32% 25% 2007 31
67 ARPU 68 69 ARPU 70// 32
IPTV 40 IPTV CDMA IPTV 71 33
72 CDMA WIFI CDMA CDMA WIFI CDMA WIFI CDMA WIFI CDMA GPRS EDGE WIFI CDMA VPN IPTV IPTV 73 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 40.0% 35.0% 29.0% 31.0% 29.0% 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 19.0% 15.0% 23.0% 12.0% 17.0% 13.0% 16.0% 15.0% 16.0% 19.0% 13.0% 13.0% 10.0% 8.0% 16.0% 13.0% 12.0% 18.0% 17.0% 18.0% 30.0% 36.0% 40.0% 44.0% 47.0% 2005/Q1 2005/Q3 2006/Q1 2006/Q3 2007/Q1 Fixed and broadband Broadband, fixed and TV Fixed and dial-up Fixed and TV other IDATE / Ofcom 34
IPTV FMC //112//BB114 FS IP BB [ WIMAX] M-FMC MTV 35
74 WIFIGSM/WCDMA WCDMA CDMA2000 TD-SCDMA M&A ARPU GSM ARPU 43 CDMA 56 89 ARPU 55 76 36
20082009201020112012 101510941194 1293 1386 10.67.8%9.1%8.3% 7.2% 75 1600.00 1400.00 1200.00 1000.00 800.00 600.00 400.00 200.00 0.00 633 1293 1386 18.0% 15.6% 16.0% 1194 1094 14.0% 12.6% 1015 918 824 11.3%10.6% 12.0% 732 7.8% 9.1% 10.0% 8.3% 8.0% 7.2% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 20% 5 20082009201020112012 71.65 90.95114.83141.60 170.88 29.3%26.9%26.3%23.3% 20.7% 18.13%22.67%28.09%34.50% 41.49% 10% 3G 20082009 2010 2011 2012 627.72 707.80 796.57 876.37945.63 18.2%12.8% 12.5% 10.0% 7.9% 46.50% 52.43% 59.01%64.92% 70.05% 20082009 2010 2011 2012 315.81 295.59 282.33 275.21 269.58-4.6%-6.4% -4.5%-2.5%-2.0% 23.39%21.90% 20.91%20.39% 19.97% 37
76 77 1200.00 1000.00 800.00 600.00 400.00 200.00 0.00 50.0% 45.5% 40.0% 31.6% 29.6%29.3%26.9%26.3%23.3% 30.0% 20.7% 18.4%18.5%19.7%18.3% 20.0% 14.8% 10.4% 13.0%11.4% 9.1% 10.0% 3.9% -2.0%-4.6% -6.4% -4.5% -2.5% -2.0% 0.0% -10.0% 2009 30% 2012 34% 2009 45% 44% 1-2 2009 25%2012 22% 78 3G 200920102011 2012 6,498.80 9,905.11 13,143.3716,729.28 2012 18%200920102011 2012 497,127.20 540,171.78 578,147.32 604,031.50 2012 63%200920102011 2012 14,568.95 15,734.47 16,678.54 17,430.59 2012 19% 200920102011 2012 59.375.9 94.9 115.8 31.638.9 46.7 55.1 38
792012 18% 63% 19% 802012 68% 32% 10% ICT 2010 20% 81 1,400,000.00 1,200,000.00 1,000,000.00 800,000.00 600,000.00 400,000.00 200,000.00 11.00% 1,157,836.74 10.80% 10.75% 10.70% 1,045,931.63 10.60% 946,657.46 859,467.58 10.49% 10.40% 710,125.54 782,794.33 10.23% 10.14% 10.20% 10.00% 9.79% 9.80% 9.60% 9.40% 0.00 9.20% 82 83 39
84 85 2010 20% 5 2012 30%55% 15% 2009201020112012 23.1% 13.8%16.0% 16.1%20092010 20112012 14.7%9.9%9.1% 8.9% 1-2 20092010 20112012 0.2%5.3%6.2% 7.3% 2012 63%41% 61% 862012 30% 15% 55% 40
87 88 89 ARPU // 90 MOU // 91 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2,865.00 2,970.00 2,913.00 2,735.00 2,735.00 2,735.00 2,735.00 2,735.00 2,735.00 29,827.00 30,351.00 28,973.00 25,346.00 19,574.20 14,689.72 9,603.31 6,416.86 4,337.25 47,646.00 47,624.00 46,188.00 42,343.00 42,872.99 42,183.34 41,429.13 41,183.86 40,601.17 80,338.00 80,945.00 78,074.00 70,424.00 65,182.19 59,608.06 53,767.44 50,335.72 47,673.42 26,231.00 25,993.00 25,517.00 24,127.00 24,191.81 23,802.66 23,377.09 23,238.69 22,909.90 3,788.00 3,407.00 3,140.00 2,882.00 2,776.42 2,652.19 2,554.19 2,464.39 2,429.53 10,719.00 12,838.00 14,095.00 13,879.00 13,666.31 13,456.88 13,250.66 13,047.60 12,847.65 40,738.00 42,238.00 42,752.00 40,888.00 40,634.54 39,911.74 39,181.94 38,750.68 38,187.08 14,109.00 17,862.00 23,630.00 31,340.00 35,320.18 44,151.45 54,818.44 67,167.02 81,182.54 3,015.00 9,976.00 14,133.00 19,231.00 25,667.49 31,330.88 38,473.16 46,192.42 54,240.84 4,154.00 2,958.00 3,031.00 3,013.00 3,073.26 3,073.26 3,073.26 3,073.26 3,073.26 10,400.00 8,550.00 8,502.00 10,466.00 11,512.60 12,088.23 12,692.64 13,327.27 13,993.64 152,754.00 162,529.00 170,122.00 175,362.00 181,390.26 190,163.61 202,006.89 218,846.37 238,350.77 8,458.00 6,781.00 4,971.00 3,294.00 2,022.00 1,151.00 497.98 0.00 0.00 161,212.00 169,310.00 175,093.00 178,656.00 183,412.26 191,314.61 202,504.87 218,846.37 238,350.77 15,833.54 25,753.69 37,450.35 50,036.87 4,734.26 5,475.51 5,513.40 5,325.22 2,346.64 3,816.87 5,550.39 7,415.80 10,769.06 18,550.52 29,856.95 43,972.02 810.02 850.52 893.05 937.70 34,493.52 54,447.12 79,264.15 107,687.61 5.0% 3.4% 2.0% 2.7% 23.1% 13.8% 16.0% 16.1% 41
92 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 1,568.00 1,442.00 1,364.00 1,283.00 1,283.00 1,283.00 1,283.00 1,283.00 1,283.00 17,964.00 18,261.00 16,546.00 12,387.00 8,936.49 6,369.50 4,674.91 3,492.99 2,640.56 24,858.00 24,582.00 22,059.00 19,989.00 17,455.17 15,860.11 14,392.68 13,434.84 13,080.59 44,390.00 44,285.00 39,969.00 33,659.00 27,674.66 23,512.61 20,350.60 18,210.82 17,004.14 11,266.00 10,260.00 9,495.00 8,769.00 7,804.28 7,076.96 6,689.77 6,502.07 6,393.93 1,285.00 1,180.00 819.00 791.00 736.20 663.43 614.59 579.60 553.03 6,453.00 7,783.00 8,432.00 8,376.00 7,368.76 6,689.83 6,150.27 5,815.64 5,677.04 5,307.00 7,824.00 9,916.00 13,835.00 18,194.19 22,287.88 26,647.39 30,759.09 34,908.49 1,075.00 591.00 516.00 532.00 558.60 586.53 615.86 646.65 678.98 2,993.00 4,000.00 5,341.00 6,114.00 7,769.04 8,232.95 8,812.29 9,677.63 10,292.85 1,584.00 1,656.00 1,413.00 1,284.00 1,309.68 1,309.68 1,309.68 1,309.68 1,309.68 2,591.00 2,596.00 2,540.00 2,521.00 2,571.42 2,571.42 2,571.42 2,571.42 2,571.42 0.00 0.00 855.00 3,990.00 5,187.00 6,483.75 8,104.69 10,130.86 12,663.57 991.00 2,281.00 2,492.00 2,617.00 2,748.27 2,886.12 3,030.89 3,182.93 3,342.58 1,517.00 628.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 82,281.00 85,861.00 84,194.00 84,005.00 82,550.11 82,301.17 84,897.46 89,386.38 95,395.72 31,997.00 32,077.00 33,609.00 35,111.67 33,444.23 33,808.43 36,147.97 37,933.68 41,428.13 6,922.40 6,840.00 7,370.00 6,965.33 6,845.41 3,235.31 3,249.54 3,306.74 3,404.62 2,614.00 3,466.00 4,914.00 6,022.83 6,926.25 7,618.87 8,152.20 8,559.81 8,816.60 4,543.00 7,966.00 11,543.00 13,528.20 17,171.18 20,151.17 22,483.29 25,342.49 27,461.89 1,432.00 1,784.00 1,852.00 1,147.29 1,204.65 1,264.88 1,328.13 1,394.53 1,464.26 47,508.40 52,133.00 59,288.00 62,775.30 65,591.72 66,078.67 71,361.14 76,537.25 82,575.50 9.7% 13.7% 5.9% 4.5% 0.7% 8.0% 7.3% 7.9% 93-2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 136,876 156,710 189,710 226,488 275,916 313,714 335,020 351,074 362,400 26,458 25,055 21,629 20,856 16,941 14,894 12,748 11,400 10,511 16,380 24,692 32,200 41,935 54,613 71,124 92,627 120,631 157,102 8,548 15,896 16,426 18,169 17,205 16,693 16,271 15,897 15,551 6,723 9,599 20,654 31,505 39,577 49,295 57,222 63,336 68,705 () 9,008 13,089 14,710 18,006 18,806 19,559 19,559 19,559 19,559 () 203,993.00 245,041.00 295,329.20 356,959.00 423,058 485,280 533,447 581,897 633,827 42
1-2 IPTV VPN 1-2 1-2 3-5 F-FMC 43
94 2% 10 2 6 10 6 7 2% 9 10 5 10 10 7 3% 10 2 5 10 3 5 3% 3 10 5 5 10 6 4% 6 10 5 9 10 8 6% 7 10 5 10 10 7 6% 7 10 5 10 10 8 4% 10 9 8 10 7 8 7% 8 10 6 9 10 8 6% 8 10 8 10 9 8 4% 9 10 7 10 8 6 3% 9 10 8 10 10 8 5% 10 6 5 10 8 6 3% 10 6 5 10 6 6 5% 10 1 5 10 3 5 7% 2 10 4 5 10 5 5% 10 7 5 10 7 6 5% 5 10 4 8 10 5 5% 6 10 4 8 10 4 5% 5 10 4 7 10 5 3% 8 10 6 9 10 6 3% 9 10 7 10 10 7 2% 9 10 8 10 10 8 2% 9 10 8 10 10 8 100% 7.53 8.64 5.55 8.96 8.73 6.46 95 96 CNNIC 44
97060708E 45
2006 12 AT&T 860 BellSouth AT&T Cingular AT&T 2004 10 36.9% S&P500 12.3% 2008 4 21 AT&T 2006 12 29 7.6% S&P500 2.6% 2005 2 Verizon MCI 11 13.4% S&P500 7% 2008 4 21 2006 1 6 17% S&P500 9% 2005 Sprint AT&T Cingular 350 Nextel 9 11.9% S&P500 1.9% 2008 4 21 2005 8 12 71% S&P500 13.9% 98 BellSouth 2004630 200638 20061229 2008421 AT&T 0 10.5% 47.4% 55.0% 0 12.1% 24.3% 21.7% 0 16.6% 38.8% 25.2% MCI 2004630 2005214 200616 2008421 Verizon 0 0.0% -13.4% 3.6% 0 5.7% 12.7% 21.7% 0 5.9% 6.9% 25.2% Nextel 2004630 20041215 2005812 2008421 Sprint 0 36.5% 48.6% -58.0% 0 5.7% 7.8% 21.7% 0 12.4% 8.1% 25.2% bloomberg 99 100AT&T S&P500 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 bloomberg 46
101SPRINT S&P500 102VERIZON S&P500 bloomberg ATT 2007 2006 1.6%VERIZON MIC 2007 6% SPRINT NEXTEL 2007-2% ATT VERIZON SPRINT-NEXTEL 103 bloomberg 104 105 bloomberg 47
106 ROA ATT VERIZON SPRINT 107ROE ATT VERIZON SPRINT bloomberg 2007 AT&TVERIAZONSPRINT-NEXTEL 45%36% 15% AT&T Verizon 2007 AT&TVERIAZON 41%15% 44%2007 AT&TVERIAZON SPRINT-NEXTEL 33%30% 21% 108 07 1092007 IDATE / Ofcom 1102007 1112007 IDATE / Ofcom 48
112ATT 68% 32% 113VERIZON 53% 47% 114SPRINT 84% 1152007 49
3-5 CDMA A 2009-210 50
612 20% 612 10%20% 612-10%10% 612 10%20% 612 20% 36 5% 36-5%5% 36 5% 51