17 March 2014 TRT CM (8138.HK) Strong results TRT CM reported a strong 2013 results with revenue growing 71.1% to HK$614m and net profit surging 146.9% to HK$227.5m mainly driven by the sale of flagship product Angong Niuhuang Pills. In 2014, sale momentum of Angong Niuhuang Pills will continue and GLSPC will start to make significant contribution. The counter is trading at PE of 34x in FY13A and 24x in FY14F based on Bloomberg estimates. Good set of results. For FY13, TRT CM s sales soared 71.1% YoY to HK$614.0m, gross profit surged 67.5% YoY to HK$420.0m, while the net profit jumped 146.9% YoY to HK$227.5m. The sales growth was mainly driven by the sales of self-manufactured products (mainly Angong Niuhuang Pills) which recorded a 160% growth to HK$403.5m. Gross margin decreased slightly to 68.4% from 69.9% mainly because of preparation cost for the sale of GLSPC, which affected the gross margin in 4Q. Net margin improved to 37.1% from 25.7% mainly because a lower increase of 5.9% in distribution and selling expenses only. GLSPC will be a new growth driver going forward. TRT CM announced in October 2013 that it would sell GLSPC (Ganoderma Lucidum Spores Powder Capsule) products in mainland China. Tongrentang group and other third party distributors agreed to purchase and distribute TRT CM s GLSPC and other Chinese medicine products containing ganoderma lucidum or ganoderma lucidum spore as raw material. The company proposed an annual cap for the GLSPC at HK$30m in 2013, HK$110m in 2014, and HK$150m in 2015. TRT CM has completed the R&D of another ganoderma lucidum related product, which is currently under the registration process in HK. Setting up centers for Chinese medicine healthcare services. The company is establishing a healthcare center in Hong Kong which will provide Chinese medicine healthcare services including prophylactic, facial, message, acupuncture and etc. The center will be targeting at mid to high end customers. Also, the company already set up its first Tong Ren Tang healthcare center in Europe in 2013. Rising selling and marketing expenses under control. The company has increased its budget for prompting its self-manufactured products and the Tong Ren Tang brand. With high recognition of its brand and advantages in leveraging parent s distribution channel in mainland, the percentage of selling and distribution expenses as a percentage of sales will be under control. Analyst Helena Qiu SFC CE No.:AOX910 00852-2899 8328 helena.qiu@guosen.com.hk Performance 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Source: Bloomberg Key Data Not Rated Healthcare 2013/5/6 2013/6/6 2013/7/6 2013/8/6 2013/9/6 2013/10/6 2013/11/6 2013/12/6 2014/1/6 2014/2/6 2014/3/6 8138 H S I Price(HK$) 10.64 Shares Outstanding(m) 830 Market Cap. (HK$ m) 8,914 Free float (%) 27.71% Average Daily Turnover HK$16.81m 52 Week Range 4.70/14.9 Controlling Shareholder Tongrentang group (72.29%) BVPS (HK$) 1.748 Net Debt ratio (%) N.A. Financial Summary Year to Dec 2011A 2012A 2013A Revenue (HK$ m) 197 359 614 Operating Profit (HK$ m) 14 118 268 Reported Profit (HK$ m) 3 89 220 Underlying Profit (HK$ m) 27 100 233 Underlying EPS (HK$) 0.068 0.249 0.31 BVPS (HK$) 1.017 1.409 1.748 P/E (x) 156.8 42.8 34.3 Dividend Yield (%) - 2.333 0.752 P/B (x) 10.5 7.6 6.1 Source: Guosen Securities (HK) 1
2014 年 03 月 17 日 同仁堂国药 (8138.HK) 利润增长强劲 同仁堂国药 2013 年实现了强劲的增长 销售收入增长 71.7% 为 6.14 亿港元, 净利润增长 146.9% 为 2.3 亿港元 公司的旗舰产品安宫牛黄丸是增长的主要驱动力 我们预期 2014 年安宫牛黄丸将保持持续增长, 破壁灵芝孢子粉胶囊将开始有重大贡献 该股目前的市盈率为 2013 年的 34 倍,2014 年的 24 倍 ( 根据彭博数据 ) 2013 年业绩亮丽 2013 年, 同仁堂国药的销售收入同比增长了 71.1% 为 6.14 亿港元, 毛利同比增长了 67.5% 为 4.2 亿港元, 同时, 净利润增长了 146.9% 为 2.3 亿港元 销售收入的增长主要受到公司自制产品 ( 主要是安宫牛黄丸 ) 的强劲增长的推动, 公司自制产品同比增长 160% 为 4.035 亿港元 毛利率略微下跌, 从 69.9% 到 68.4%, 主要是因为公司在第 4 季度开始为破壁灵芝孢子粉胶囊的销售做准备而提升了成本 破壁灵芝孢子粉胶囊将成为新的增长动力 同仁堂国药于 2013 年 10 月份宣布公司将在中国大陆销售破壁灵芝孢子粉胶囊 同仁堂集团和其他独立第三方分销商将向同仁堂国药购买其自制的破壁灵芝孢子粉胶囊和其他含有灵芝或灵芝孢子为原料的中药产品, 然后分销至中国的零售商或终端用户 发展中医医疗服务 公司目前正在香港筹建中医养生中心, 该中心将提供中医养生 中医美容 中医推拿 针灸等传统中式保健项目, 并以中高端消费群体为目标 公司已经在 2013 年设立了同仁堂品牌在欧洲第一家养生文化保健中心 营销费用将有所提升, 但应该不会影响到净利率 公司有计划提升产品促销和同仁堂品牌推广的营销费用 但是基于同仁堂品牌的知名度和公司可以利用母公司的销售渠道产生协同效应, 其销售费用占销售收入的比重应该可以控制在不影响净利率的水平 盈利预测 截至 31/12 2011A 2012A 2013A 营业额 ( 百万港元 ) 197 359 614 经营盈利 ( 百万港元 ) 14 118 268 净利润 ( 百万港元 ) 3 89 220 实际盈利 ( 港元 ) 27 100 233 每股实际盈利 ( 港元 ) 0.068 0.249 0.31 每股账面价值 ( 港元 ) 1.017 1.409 1.748 市盈率 (x) 156.8 42.8 34.3 股息率 (%) - 2.333 0.752 市净率 (x) 10.5 7.6 6.1 资料来源 : 分析师 邱海燕证监会中央编号 :.:AOX910 00852-2899 8328 helena.qiu@guosen.com.hk 股价表现 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 资料来源 : 彭博 股票数据 未评级 医药保健行业 2013/5/6 2013/6/6 2013/7/6 2013/8/6 2013/9/6 2013/10/6 2013/11/6 2013/12/6 2014/1/6 2014/2/6 2014/3/6 8138 H S I 收盘价 ( 港币 $) 10.64 总股本 ( 百万 ) 830 总市值 ( 港币 $ 百万 ) 8,914 流通量 (%) 27.71% 日均成交额 HK$16.81m 52 周最低 / 最高 4.70/14.9 主要控股股东 Tongrentang group (72.29%) 每股净资产 ( 港币 $) 1.748 净负债率 (%) N.A. 2
Financial Summary Profit & Loss (HK$ m) 2011A 2012A 2013A Financial Ratios 2011A 2012A 2013A Revenue growth (%) 82 71 Operating profit growth (%) 732 127 Reported profit growth (%) 2617 147 Underlying profit growth (%) 266 132 Revenue 197 359 614 Underlying EPS growth (%) 25 Cost of sales (65) (108) (194) Dividend growth (%) 0 (34) Gross profit 132 251 420 Dividend payout (%) 112 30 Other net income (33) (7) 5 Gross profit margin (%) 70 68 SG&A expenses (85) (125) (157) Operating profit margin (%) 33 44 Operating profit 14 118 268 Underlying profit margin (%) 25 36 Finance costs 1 1 5 ROE (%) 16 17 Fair value change from CB ROA (%) 13 16 Associates & JCE (2) (1) (2) Net debt/equity (%) Profit before taxation 14 118 271 Net debt/total assets (%) Taxation (9) (26) (44) Current ratio (%) 5 12 Non controlling interests (1) (3) (8) Interest cover (x) 3559 Net profit 3 89 220 Dividend cover (x) 1 3 Balance Sheet (HK$ m) 2011A 2012A 2013A Cash Flows (HK$ m) 2011A 2012A 2013A Fixed assets 213 134 228 Profit before tax 78 199 Associates & JCE 2 1 14 Depreciation&Amortization 11 12 Others 10 9 9 Interest income (1) (1) Non current assets 225 144 251 Others 39 18 Inventories 62 87 102 Change in working capital (36) (6) Debtors & prepayments 35 38 133 Tax paid (21) (35) Bank deposits 12 11 469 Operating activities 69 188 Cash 152 238 454 Purchase of non current assets (62) (67) Others 1 163 0 Disposal of non current assets 0 0 Current assets 261 536 1159 Associates & JCE (net) 0 0 Bank & other borrowings 0 5 0 Interest received 1 1 Trade & payables 38 72 69 Dividends received 25 (6) Others 13 33 27 Investing activities (36) (72) Current liabilities 51 109 96 New loans raised 0 0 Others 25 4 4 Repayment of loans 0 5 Non current liabilities 25 4 4 Dividends paid (3) (4) Net assets 410 568 1310 Others (12) (11) Share capital 201 201 415 Financing activities (14) (10) Premium & reserves 140 293 859 Inc/(dec) in cash 19 105 Shareholders' funds 342 495 1274 Cash at beginning of year 133 152 Non controlling interests 68 73 36 Foreign exchange effect 0 2 Total equity 410 568 1310 Others 0 (21) Cash at end of year 152 238 Source: Guosen Securities (HK) 3
2014 年 3 月 17 日 Information Disclosures Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions Stock Ratings: Buy: A return potential of 10 % or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Neutral: A return potential ranging from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sell: A negative return of 10% or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sector Ratings: Overweight: The sector will outperform the overall market by 10% or higher within 6 12 months. Neutral: The sector performance will range from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Underweight: The sector will underperform the overall market by 10% or lower within 6 12 months. Interest disclosure statement The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates serves as an officer of the listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies. Guosen Securities (HK) Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively Guosen Securities (HK) ) has no disclosable financial interests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no investment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no individual employed by the listed companies. Disclaimers The prices of securities may fluctuate up or down. It may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of Guosen Securities (HK) and does not constitute any buying/selling or dealing agreement in relation to the securities mentioned. Guosen Securities (HK) may be seeking or will seek investment banking or other business (such as placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or proprietary trading in such securities) with the listed companies. Individuals of Guosen Securities (HK) may have personal investment interests in the listed companies. This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not guaranteed by Guosen Securities (HK). This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation to anyone. Clients are wholly responsible for any investment decision based on this report. Clients are advised to consider whether any advice or recommendation contained in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances. This report is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. This report is for distribution only to clients of Guosen Securities (HK). Without Guosen Securities (HK) s written authorization, any form of quotation, reproduction or transmission to third parties is prohibited, or may be subject to legal action. Such information and opinions contained therein are subject to change and may be amended without any notification. This report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guosen Securities (HK) and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 4
2014 年 3 月 17 日 信息披露 公司评级 行业评级及相关定义 公司评级买入 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅在 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅介于 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 减持 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘跌幅大于 10% 行业评级超配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报高于市场整体水平 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报介于市场整体水平 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 低配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报低于市场整体水平 10% 以上 利益披露声明报告作者为香港证监会持牌人士, 分析员本人或其有联系者并未担任本研究报告所评论的上市法团高级管理人员, 也未持有其任何财务权益 本报告中, 经纪有限公司及其所属关联机构 ( 合称) 并无持有该公司须作出披露的财务权益 ( 包括持股 ), 在过去 12 个月内与该公司并无投资银行关系, 亦无进行该公司有关股份的庄家活动 本公司员工均非该上市公司的雇员 免责条款证券价格有时可能非常波动 证券价格可升可跌, 甚至变成毫无价值 买卖证券未必一定能够赚取利润, 反而可能会招致损失 本研究报告内容既不代表 的推荐意见, 也并不构成所涉及的个别股票的买卖或交易要约 或其集团公司有可能会与本报告涉及的公司洽谈投资银行业务或其它业务 ( 例如配售代理 牵头经办人 保荐人 包销商或从事自营投资于该股票 ) 国信证券( 香港 ) 不排除其员工有个人投资于本报告内所提及的上市法团 报告中的资料均来自公开信息, 我们力求准确可靠, 但对这些信息的正确性 公正性及完整性不做任何保证 本报告没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标 财务状况或需要, 并不构成个人投资建议, 客户据此投资, 责任自负 客户在阅读本研究报告时应考虑报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其个人特定状况 本报告并不存在招揽或邀约购买或出售任何证券的企图 本报告仅向特定客户传送, 未经国信证券香港书面授权许可, 任何人不得引用 转载以及向第三方传播, 否则可能将承担法律责任 研究报告所载的资料及意见, 如有任何更改, 本司将不作另行通知 在一些管辖区域内, 针对或意图向该等区域内的市民 居民 个人或实体发布 公布 供其使用或提供获取渠道的行为会违反该区域内所适用的法律或规例或令 受制于任何注册或领牌规定, 则本研究报告不适用于该等管辖区域内的市民 居民或身处该范围内的任何人或实体 5