41 2 2017 3 Vol. 41 No. 2 March 2017 71 Population Research * 2016 200433 Determinants and Effects of Return Migration in China Ren Yuan Shi Wen Abstract This paper examines the factors associated with return migration using data from a survey on rural labour transfer and urbanization in seven provinces in central-west China. Rural return migration is influenced on the one hand by employment status income and social security exclusion in cities and on the other hand by family life family labor size and land acquisitions in the villages. Return migration is a combined result of active return and passive return and of individual and family decision making. The authors analyze the positive effects of return migration resulting in Brain Gain based on migrants' human capital accumulation during their migration. Returned migrants are more likely to engage in non-agricultural activities and self-entrepreneurship. Migration and return migration jointly help mobilize labor market and promote rural-urban development in China. Keyw ords Rural Migrants Return Migration Return Migration Effect Migration Effect Authors Ren Yuan is Professor Demography and Urban Studies Institute of Population Research Fudan University Shanghai China. Email yren@ fudan. edu. cn Shi Wen is Master Student Institute of Population Research Fudan University Shanghai China. Email 13210730005@ fuan. edu. cn * 2012WSH002
72 41 1 1980 20% 2016 57. 3% 2000 1600 2015 2. 77 1. 69 2007 2010 1980 1980 1990 30% Zhao 2002 2002 Wang & Fan 2006 2008 2009 2008 7000 20% 2007 88. 69 2014 13. 61 2015 2014 2425 2415 2 2. 1 Lee 1966 Bogue 1969 Lewis 1954 Todaro 1969 1976
2 73 Return of failure Borjas & Bratsberg 1994 2002 Wang & Fan 2006 Stark & Levhari 1982 Vadean & Piracha 2009 Constant & Massey 2002 2. 2 Olesen 2002 Stark & Levhari 1982 2009 2002 Zhao 2002 2009 2006 2013 Zhao 2002 Hu et al. 2011 2008 2005 2007 2012 Zhao 2002 2010 2011 2012 Zhao 2002 Wang & Fan 2006 2002 2009 2010 2015 Zhao 2002 2009 2010 2011 2. 3 2002 Vadean & Piracha 2009 Ma
74 41 2002 2009 Brain Drain Brain Gain Zhao 2002 Ma 2002 Zhao 2002 Zhao 2002 2003 2009 30% ~ 40% Murphy 1999 2010 2001 Kapur 2004 3 3. 1 1 2 3 1 2 3
2 75 4 3. 2 1 2 4 2013 7 7 5 1 2011 2 2011 3 3 2011 3 ~ 5 4 70 5 15 15 1 15 15 7 41 88 341 15233 15 ~ 59 12949 10651
76 41 5 5. 1 65. 7% 40. 5% 31 ~ 45 47. 3% 38. 8% 24. 9% 18. 1% 1 1 Table 1 Basic Situation of Returned Rural Labors Out-Migrant Labors and Non-Migrant Labors 10651 2833 4168 3650 % 100 26. 6 39. 1 34. 3 % 52. 2 54. 0 59. 6 42. 5 47. 8 46. 0 40. 4 57. 5 39. 0 40. 4 32. 8 45. 0 % 15 ~ 30 27. 2 19. 3 47. 0 10. 6 30 ~ 45 40. 6 47. 3 39. 6 36. 7 45 ~ 60 32. 2 33. 4 13. 4 52. 7 % 18. 8 10. 7 32. 4 9. 5 81. 2 89. 3 67. 6 90. 5 % 25. 4 24. 3 16. 3 36. 9 57. 4 61. 8 60. 1 51. 1 17. 2 13. 9 23. 6 12. 0 % 16. 8 19. 5 13. 0 19. 0 27. 6 28. 2 33. 6 20. 1
2 77 1 17068 14983 22852 11562 40286 34745 50925 32472 % 1 9. 5 8. 6 10. 8 8. 5 2 19. 1 21. 4 16. 7 20. 2 3 71. 4 70. 0 72. 5 71. 3 % 41. 8 44. 0 48. 8 32. 0 % 37. 6 47. 3 12. 0 59. 5 % 18. 7 41. 6 7. 4 25. 0 % 9. 3 10. 1 6. 8 11. 5 3. 6 3. 8 2. 6 4. 7 % 37. 0 30. 6 49. 0 28. 7 2597. 6 2098. 8 2866. 9 % 70. 7 73. 0 69. 5 % 51. 8 43. 6 56. 0 5. 2 2 logistic 45 ~ 60 15 ~ 30 3. 7 3 1 36% 1 3 94% 3
78 41 2 logistic Table 2 Logistic Model on Factors of Return Migration of Rural Labors 1 2 3 Odds Ratio S. E. Odds Ratio S. E. Odds Ratio S. E. = 1 0. 640 *** 0. 045 0. 908 0. 068 0. 873 0. 082 15 ~ 30 30 ~ 45 1. 841 *** 0. 160 3. 001 *** 0. 258 1. 618 *** 0. 179 45 ~ 60 6. 131 *** 0. 646 4. 607 *** 0. 503 3. 722 *** 0. 523 1. 146 0. 100 1. 399 *** 0. 133 1. 379 *** 0. 162 1. 052 0. 126 1. 154 0. 149 1. 190 0. 189 = 1 2. 093 *** 0. 203 2. 253 *** 0. 227 1. 958 *** 0. 239 = 1 0. 943 0. 073 0. 916 0. 074 0. 941 0. 093 0. 999 *** 0. 000 0. 999 *** 0. 000 = 1 1. 064 0. 089 0. 898 0. 091 = 1 0. 792 *** 0. 058 0. 760 *** 0. 068 2 0. 605 *** 0. 082 0. 454 *** 0. 082 3 0. 582 *** 0. 069 0. 462 *** 0. 069 0. 671 *** 0. 051 0. 786 ** 0. 078 1. 362 0. 257 1. 582 * 0. 371 = 1 3. 616 *** 0. 288 3. 172 *** 0. 340 = 1 10. 742 *** 0. 979 10. 835 *** 1. 270 = 1 1. 074 0. 133 1. 207 0. 183 1. 027 *** 0. 008 1. 032 *** 0. 010 = 1 0. 545 *** 0. 040 0. 725 *** 0. 069 0. 361 *** 0. 055 0. 568 *** 0. 081 0. 975 0. 210 LR chi2 2277. 7 *** 646. 5 *** 1405. 1 *** Log likelihood - 2762. 6-2351. 2-1658. 1 Pseudo R2 0. 292 0. 121 0. 298 N 6121 4165 3646 1 *** p < 0. 01 ** p < 0. 05 * p < 0. 1 2 2 3 Odds Ratio 0. 9995 0. 9995 3 = 1 = 0 4 1 2 1 0 3 1 0 4 15 ~ 59 5 1 0 6 1 0 7 18 / 1 0 8 1 0 9 10 1 0
2 79 2 3 3 27. 1% 80 3 18 10 3 5. 3 43. 7% 43. 71% 55. 8% 34. 3% 12. 8% 15. 7% 11. 2% 3 logistic 4 20% 5
80 41 Table 3 3 logistic Logistic Model on Rural Migrants' Non-Agricultural Employment and Intention of Self-Entrepreneurship 4 5 Odds Ratio S. E. Odds Ratio S. E. = 1 2. 167 *** 0. 121 1. 205 ** 0. 109 1. 789 *** 0. 115 3. 511 *** 0. 491 3. 509 *** 0. 337 6. 688 *** 1. 074 = 1 0. 516 *** 0. 039 1. 024 0. 114 = 1 2. 624 *** 0. 183 1. 624 *** 0. 165 = 0 1 1. 294 ** 0. 150 1. 228 0. 246 2 1. 328 *** 0. 138 1. 469 ** 0. 263 = 1 1. 623 *** 0. 091 2. 127 *** 0. 197 = 1 0. 838 * 0. 079 0. 573 *** 0. 079 0. 220 *** 0. 030 0. 032 *** 0. 008 LR chi2 860. 58 *** 367. 96 *** Log likelihood - 3773. 0714-1688. 6825 Pseudo R2 0. 1024 0. 0982 N 6898 5543 1 *** p < 0. 01 ** p < 0. 05 * p < 0. 1 2 4 = 1 = 0 3 = 1 = 0 4 1 1 0 2 3 1 0 4 1 0 6 6. 1
2 81 6. 2
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