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Research Department 20 January, 2014 2015 Hong Kong Market Outlook Summary (English Translation) Summary: GDP growth in China is still searching for a bottom, with estimated growth of 7.0% in 2015. Given the policy of maintaining the economic growth and slightly loose monetary policy, urban FAI is estimated to mildly slow down. Foreign trade growth remains modest, while consumption is steady. Currently, China s working age population continues to decline, but the total employed population continues to grow. Thus, employment status is stable and healthy. Given the population structure, demographic policy, and the future trend, as long as China s economy maintains moderate growth, there is little pressure on employment. Food prices are expected to remain stable in 2015, whereas commodity prices may decline, offsetting the increase of environmental protection cost. Inflation may stay quite low, leading to a shift toward slightly loose monetary policy in order to prevent deflation. With forex purchase position decreasing, given the background of a stable economy, low level of inflation and housing prices seeing some adjustments, monetary policy should be slightly loose. In order to guide the flow of funds into real economic entities while avoiding an excessive housing price rebound, PBoC may choose to use diversified monetary policy tools. The property industry still exerts a very important influence on China s economy. The relaxation in mortgage rates, housing provident fund and housing purchase restriction prevents the decline of the industry. The property industry has become a monetary policy indicator for the balance between stabilizing the economy and adjusting the economic structure. U.S. economic recovery is confirmed. The Fed concluded QE as expected and is patient to increase interest rates. The European economic recovery is slow, with the risk of deflation. Although facing differences in terms of markets, politics and effects, further QE measures are expected to be implemented. Therefore, quantitative easing is expected to continue in both Europe and Japan, and liquidity in China will be slightly loose. Nevertheless, the Renminbi exchange rate will appear with two-way volatility around an equilibrium level. Hong Kong market liquidity is expected to be stable. China is deepening the reform on fiscal and taxation systems, mainly focused on VAT reform. The overall tax burden should be lower, especially for small and micro enterprises, which could enjoy more preferential policies. Together with other reforms, reform dividends should lift company earnings. The U.S. dollar remains strong and the U.S. market will continue to be supported by its favorable earnings trends. A share market is expected to be buoyant. A+H, SOE reform, One Belt One Road, FTA, environmental protection and financial reform are attractive investment themes. Based on market cap weighted average, earnings of companies we cover are forecast to grow by 12.0%, 15.2% and 13.3% respectively in 2014-2016. We expect the Hang Seng Index to increase by 9.0% in 2015, representing 11.3x and 10.3x 2015 and 2016 PE, respectively. We are bullish on insurance, telecommunication equipment, environmental protection, telecommunication services, and internet sectors, while aviation, shipping and logistics, electric equipment, steel, and electricity sectors may have short-term trading opportunities. See the last page for disclaimer page 1 of 16

Top Picks in Sectors under GTJA International Coverage Sectors Company name Code Rating 6 to 18m TP (HKD) Automobiles & Components SINOTRUK - R 03808 HK Accumulate 4.90 Aviation CHINA EAST AIR-H 00670 HK Buy 5.20 Banking BANK OF CHINA-H 03988 HK Buy 5.25 Construction Materials ANHUI CONCH-H 00914 HK Accumulate 36.80 Coal CHINA SHENHUA-H 01088 HK Buy 27.50 Consumer -- Apparel CHINA LILANG 01234 HK Accumulate 6.63 Consumer -- Foods & Beverage XIAO NAN GUO RES 03666 HK Buy 1.65 Consumer -- Hotels HOMEINNS HOT-ADR HMIN US Buy US$47.00 Consumer -- Retailing SUN ART RETAIL 06808 HK Buy 11.47 Consumer -- Retailing HAIER ELECTRONIC 01169 HK Buy 28.73 Electric Equipment DONGFANG ELECT-H 01072 HK Accumulate 15.00 Electricity CHINA RES POWER 00836 HK Accumulate 24.30 Environmental Protection CHINA EVERBR INT 00257 HK Accumulate 12.10 Gaming WYNN MACAU LTD 01128 HK Accumulate 30.00 Infrastructure CHINA RAIL CN-H 01186 HK Accumulate 11.50 Insurance PING AN INSURA-H 02318 HK Buy 90.60 Internet TENCENT 00700 HK Buy 153.00 Internet YOUKU TUDOU INC YOKU US Buy US$32.00 Machinery ZOOMLION HEAVY-H 01157 HK Accumulate 7.60 Ports CHINA MERCHANT 00144 HK Buy 33.00 Property CHINA RES LAND 01109 HK Accumulate 23.70 Shipping and Logistics CHINA SHIPPING-H 01138 HK Buy 6.50 Telecommunication Equipment LENOVO GROUP LTD 00992 HK Buy 13.50 Telecommunication Services CHINA UNICOM HON 00762 HK Buy 14.40 Toll roads ZHEJIANGEXPRE-H 00576 HK Accumulate 9.50 Source: Guotai Junan International. Note: the outlook is based on the closing price on 31 December 2014. Top picks are by industry alphabetical order. Stocks Benefiting from SOE Reform Sector Company Name Stock Code Rating 6 to 18m TP (HKD) Banking BANK OF COMMUN-H 03328 HK Neutral 5.93 Conglomerate SHANG INDUS HLDG 00363 HK Accumulate 31.00 Electric Equipment SHANGHAI ELECT-H 02727 HK Neutral 4.20 Infrastructure CHINA RAIL GR-H 00390 HK Accumulate 6.05 Infrastructure CHINA RAIL CN-H 01186 HK Accumulate 11.50 Infrastructure CHINA COM CONS-H 01800 HK Accumulate 9.20 Oil and Gas PETROCHINA CO-H 00857 HK Neutral 9.30 Oil and Gas SINOPEC CORP-H 00386 HK Neutral 6.70 Source: Guotai Junan International. See the last page for disclaimer page 2 of 16

Stocks Benefiting from the SH-HK Stock Connect Sector Company Name Stock Code Rating 6 to 18m TP (HKD) Banking CCB-H 00939 HK Accumulate 6.76 Banking CHINA CITIC BK-H 00998 HK Neutral 5.91 Banking AGRICULTURAL-H 01288 HK Accumulate 4.50 Banking ICBC-H 01398 HK Accumulate 5.92 Banking CHINA MINSHENG-H 01988 HK Accumulate 11.90 Banking BANK OF COMMUN-H 03328 HK Neutral 5.93 Banking BANK OF CHINA-H 03988 HK Buy 5.25 Coal YANZHOU COAL-H 01171 HK Neutral 5.40 Coal CHINA COAL ENE-H 01898 HK Neutral 4.80 Electric Equipment DONGFANG ELECT-H 01072 HK Accumulate 15.00 Electric Equipment SHANGHAI ELECT-H 02727 HK Neutral 4.20 Electricity DATANG INTL PO-H 00991 HK Neutral 4.50 Electricity HUADIAN POWER-H 01071 HK Neutral 5.10 Gaming WYNN MACAU LTD 01128 HK Accumulate 30.00 Gaming MGM CHINA HOLDIN 02282 HK Accumulate 24.00 Insurance NEW CHINA LIFE-H 01336 HK Accumulate 37.50 Internet TENCENT 00700 HK Buy 153.00 Manufacturing SHANDONG CHEN-H 01812 HK Buy 4.50 Manufacturing ZHUZHOU CSR-H 03898 HK Buy 55.30 Petrochemicals PETROCHINA CO-H 00857 HK Neutral 9.30 Petrochemicals SINOPEC CORP-H 00386 HK Neutral 6.70 Shipping and Logistics CHINA SHIPPING-H 01138 HK Buy 6.50 Shipping and Logistics CHINA SHIPPING-H 02866 HK Accumulate 2.85 Telecommunication Equipment LENOVO GROUP LTD 00992 HK Buy 13.50 Telecommunication Services CHINA TELECOM-H 00728 HK Accumulate 5.40 Telecommunication Services CHINA UNICOM HON 00762 HK Buy 14.40 Telecommunication Services CHINA MOBILE 00941 HK Accumulate 101.00 Others HKEX 00388 HK Accumulate 195.00 Source: Guotai Junan International. See the last page for disclaimer page 3 of 16

Stocks Dual Listed in Hong Kong and Shenzhen A Share Stock Code H Share Stock Code Company Name A Share Stock Price H Share Stock Price Premium/Discount* 000002 CH 02202 HK CHINA VANKE CO-H 13.900 17.300-0.4% 000039 CH 02039 HK CHINA INTL MAR-H 21.890 17.220-37.1% 000063 CH 00763 HK ZTE-H 18.060 16.840-25.4% 000157 CH 01157 HK ZOOMLION HEAVY-H 7.060 5.910-33.0% 000338 CH 02338 HK WEICHAI POWER-H 27.290 32.700-4.1% 000488 CH 01812 HK SHANDONG CHEN-H 6.170 3.680-52.3% 000513 CH 01513 HK LIVZON PHARM-H 49.440 47.350-23.4% 000585 CH 00042 HK NORTHEAST ELEC-H 4.060 1.850-63.5% 000666 CH 00350 HK JINGWEI TEXTIL-H 18.000 8.980-60.1% 000756 CH 00719 HK SHANDONG XINHU-H 7.970 3.710-62.8% 000898 CH 00347 HK ANGANG STEEL-H 6.150 6.600-14.1% 000921 CH 00921 HK HISENSE KELON -H 8.350 6.850-34.4% 002202 CH 02208 HK XINJIANG GOLD-H 14.130 12.060-31.7% 002490 CH 00568 HK SHANDONG MOLON-H 8.630 3.050-71.7% 002594 CH 01211 HK BYD CO LTD-H 38.150 30.350-36.3% 002672 CH 00895 HK DONGJIANG ENVI-H 34.740 27.150-37.5% 002703 CH 01057 HK ZHEJIANG SHIBA-H 25.950 6.940-78.6% Average -39.2% Source: HKEx, Shenzhen Exchange. Note: HKD/RMB exchange rate was 0.8002. Negative represents an H share discount to A share. See the last page for disclaimer page 4 of 16

Stocks Benefiting from RRR cuts or Interest Rate cuts Sector Company Name Stock Code Rating 6 to 18m TP (HK$) Aviation CHINA EAST AIR-H 00670 HK Buy 5.20 Aviation AIR CHINA LTD-H 00753 HK Buy 8.40 Aviation CHINA SOUTHERN-H 01055 HK Buy 5.20 Banking CCB-H 00939 HK Accumulate 6.76 Banking CHINA CITIC BK-H 00998 HK Neutral 5.91 Banking AGRICULTURAL-H 01288 HK Accumulate 4.50 Banking ICBC-H 01398 HK Accumulate 5.92 Banking CHINA MINSHENG-H 01988 HK Accumulate 11.90 Banking BANK OF COMMUN-H 03328 HK Neutral 5.93 Banking CHINA MERCH BK-H 03968 HK Accumulate 23.20 Banking BANK OF CHINA-H 03988 HK Buy 5.25 Cement ANHUI CONCH-H 00914 HK Accumulate 36.80 Electricity CHINA RES POWER 00836 HK Accumulate 24.30 Electricity HUANENG POWER-H 00902 HK Accumulate 10.25 Electricity CHINA LONGYUAN-H 00916 HK Accumulate 9.20 Electricity HUANENG RENEWA-H 00958 HK Buy 3.50 Electricity DATANG INTL PO-H 00991 HK Neutral 4.50 Electricity HUADIAN POWER-H 01071 HK Neutral 5.10 Electricity CHINA DATANG C-H 01798 HK Neutral 1.08 Electricity CHINA POWER INTE 02380 HK Neutral 4.00 Infrastructure CHINA RAIL GR-H 00390 HK Accumulate 6.05 Infrastructure CHINA RAIL CN-H 01186 HK Accumulate 11.50 Infrastructure CHINA COM CONS-H 01800 HK Accumulate 9.20 Insurance CHINA TAIPING IN 00966 HK Accumulate 21.70 Insurance NEW CHINA LIFE-H 01336 HK Accumulate 37.50 Insurance PING AN INSURA-H 02318 HK Buy 90.60 Insurance CHINA PACIFIC-H 02601 HK Accumulate 38.30 Insurance CHINA LIFE INS-H 02628 HK Accumulate 29.20 Machinery ZOOMLION HEAVY-H 01157 HK Accumulate 7.60 Machinery LONKING 03339 HK Accumulate 1.95 Manufacturing SHANDONG CHEN-H 01812 HK Buy 4.50 Ports DALIAN PORT PD-H 02880 HK Neutral 2.50 Ports XIAMEN PORT-H 03378 HK Accumulate 2.60 Property CHINA OVERSEAS 00688 HK Accumulate 24.26 Property SHIMAO PROPERTY 00813 HK Accumulate 22.09 Property LONGFOR PROPERTI 00960 HK Neutral 11.24 Property CHINA RES LAND 01109 HK Accumulate 23.70 Toll roads SHENZHEN EXPRE-H 00548 HK Accumulate 5.50 Toll roads ANHUI EXPRESS-H 00995 HK Accumulate 5.00 Source: Guotai Junan International. See the last page for disclaimer page 5 of 16

Stocks Benefiting from One belt One Road Sector Company Name Stock Code Rating 6 to 18m TP (HK$) Banking BANK OF CHINA-H 03988 HK Buy 5.25 Cement ANHUI CONCH-H 00914 HK Accumulate 36.80 Electric Equipment DONGFANG ELECT-H 01072 HK Accumulate 15.00 Electric Equipment HARBIN ELECTRI-H 01133 HK Neutral 4.85 Electric Equipment SHANGHAI ELECT-H 02727 HK Neutral 4.20 Infrastructure CHINA RAIL CN-H 01186 HK Accumulate 11.50 Infrastructure CHINA RAIL GR-H 00390 HK Accumulate 6.05 Infrastructure CHINA COM CONS-H 01800 HK Accumulate 9.20 Machinery ZOOMLION HEAVY-H 01157 HK Accumulate 7.60 Machinery LONKING 03339 HK Accumulate 1.95 Manufacturing CSR CORP LTD-H 01766 HK Buy 11.90 Manufacturing ZHUZHOU CSR-H 03898 HK Buy 55.30 Ports CHINA MERCHANT 00144 HK Buy 33.00 Ports COSCO PAC LTD 01199 HK Accumulate 13.00 Shipping and Logistics CHINA COSCO HO-H 01919 HK Accumulate 4.00 Shipping and Logistics CHINA SHIPPING-H 02866 HK Accumulate 2.85 Source: Guotai Junan International. Stocks Benefiting from FTA or Regional Revitalization Sector Company Name Stock Code Rating 6 to 18m TP (HK$) Clean energy BINHAI INVESTMEN 02886 HK Accumulate 0.59 Conglomerate SHANG INDUS HLDG 00363 HK Accumulate 31.00 Insurance CHINA PACIFIC-H 02601 HK Accumulate 38.30 Ports XIAMEN PORT-H 03378 HK Accumulate 2.60 Ports TIANJIN PORT DEV 03382 HK Neutral 1.55 Source: Guotai Junan International. See the last page for disclaimer page 6 of 16

Stocks Worth Long-term Holding with Healthy Fundamentals Sector Company Name Stock Code Rating 6 to 18m TP (HK$) Banking CCB-H 00939 HK Accumulate 6.76 Banking AGRICULTURAL-H 01288 HK Accumulate 4.50 Banking ICBC-H 01398 HK Accumulate 5.92 Banking BANK OF CHINA-H 03988 HK Buy 5.25 Coal CHINA SHENHUA-H 01088 HK Buy 27.50 Consumer -- Foods & Beverage TINGYI 00322 HK Accumulate 20.70 Consumer -- Foods & Beverage CHINA MENGNIU DA 02319 HK Accumulate 33.00 Consumer -- Hotels HOMEINNS HOT-ADR HMIN US Buy US$47.00 Consumer -- Hotels CHINA LODGIN-ADS HTHT US Accumulate US$26.20 Consumer -- Household Products HENGAN INTL 01044 HK Accumulate 90.00 Consumer -- Retailing SUN ART RETAIL 06808 HK Buy 11.47 Consumer -- Retailing HAIER ELECTRONIC 01169 HK Buy 28.73 Conglomerate GUANGDONG INVEST 00270 HK Accumulate 10.00 Environmental Protection CHINA EVERBR INT 00257 HK Accumulate 12.10 Environmental Protection BJ ENT WATER 00371 HK Accumulate 6.38 Electric Equipment DONGFANG ELECT-H 01072 HK Accumulate 15.00 Electricity CHINA RES POWER 00836 HK Accumulate 24.30 Electricity CHINA LONGYUAN-H 00916 HK Accumulate 9.20 Insurance PING AN INSURA-H 02318 HK Buy 90.60 Manufacturing CSR CORP LTD-H 01766 HK Buy 11.90 Manufacturing ZHUZHOU CSR-H 03898 HK Buy 55.30 Ports CHINA MERCHANT 00144 HK Buy 33.00 Telecommunication Services CHINA MOBILE 00941 HK Accumulate 101.00 Toll roads SHENZHEN EXPRE-H 00548 HK Accumulate 5.50 Toll roads ZHEJIANGEXPRE-H 00576 HK Accumulate 9.50 Source: Guotai Junan International. Quality Stocks Undervalued with Large Upside Potential Sector Company Name Stock Code Rating 6 to 18m TP (HK$) Banking CCB-H 00939 HK Accumulate 6.76 Banking AGRICULTURAL-H 01288 HK Accumulate 4.50 Banking ICBC-H 01398 HK Accumulate 5.92 Banking BANK OF CHINA-H 03988 HK Buy 5.25 Coal CHINA SHENHUA-H 01088 HK Buy 27.50 Consumer -- Hotels HOME INNS HOT-ADR HMIN US Buy US$47.00 Insurance PING AN INSURA-H 02318 HK Buy 90.60 Internet YOUKU TUDOU INC YOKU US Buy US$32.00 Shipping and Logistics SINOTRANS SHIPPI 00368 HK Accumulate 2.65 Shipping and Logistics CHINA SHIPPING-H 01138 HK Buy 6.50 Source: Guotai Junan International. See the last page for disclaimer page 7 of 16

摘要 : 2015 年港股展望 国内 GDP 增速仍在探底,2015 年预测为 7.0% 在保增长和货币政策偏宽松的条件下, 固定资产投资预测为略有放缓 外贸温和增长, 消费基本稳定 目前国内劳动年龄人口下降, 但就业总人数保持增长, 因此就业处于稳定而且健康状态 以人口结构 人口政策及未来趋势来看, 只要经济适度增长, 就业基本没有压力 预计 2015 年食品价格增幅稳定, 大宗商品价格下跌, 抵消环保成本的上升, 通胀应在相当低的水平, 引导货币政策转为宽松, 防止通缩 预期外汇占款仍会放缓, 在稳经济 低通胀和房价有所调整的背景下, 货币政策应为偏宽松 为引导资金多流向实体, 同时避免房价反弹过快, 央行将采用多样化货币政策工具 房地产行业对中国经济有着极为重要的影响力 按揭利率 公积金 限购等政策放松, 阻止了行业的下滑 行业成为平衡稳经济和调结构的货币政策取向的指标 美国经济复苏势头确定 QE 如预期退出, 美联储对加息保持耐心 欧洲经济复苏缓慢, 有通缩风险 虽面临市场 政治和效用方面的分歧, 预料量宽仍会加码 因此, 欧洲和日本量宽持续, 国内流动性偏宽松, 但人民币将显示在均衡水平波动 预期香港市场流动性稳定 国内目前仍不断深化财税体制改革, 从以营改增为主的多个税种改革来看, 总体税负应是有所下降的, 尤其小微企业政策优惠明显 加上其它改革红利, 支持盈利水平 美元维持强势, 美国股市将继续受到良好的盈利趋势支撑 A 股市场畅旺 A+H 国企改革 一带一路 自贸区 环保 金融改革等都是较好的投资主题 按照市值加权平均计算, 我们覆盖的公司在 2014-2016 年的盈利增长分别为 12.0% 15.2% 和 13.3% 我们认为恒指 2015 年将上升 9% 相当于 11.3 倍及 10.3 倍 2015 及 2016 年市盈率 我们看好保险 通信设备 环保 电信服务和互联网, 而航空 航运及物流 电力设备 钢铁 电力则有阶段性的机会 See the last page for disclaimer page 8 of 16

国泰君安国际荐股名单 行业 公司 代码 评级 6-18 个月目标价 (HK$) 汽车 中国重汽 03808 HK 收集 4.90 航空 中国东方航空 00670 HK 买入 5.20 银行 中国银行 03988 HK 买入 5.25 水泥 海螺水泥 00914 HK 收集 36.80 煤炭 中国神华 01088 HK 买入 27.50 消费 -- 服装 中国利郎 01234 HK 收集 6.63 消费 -- 食品饮料 小南国 03666 HK 买入 1.65 消费 -- 酒店 如家酒店 HMIN US 买入 US$47.00 消费 -- 零售 高鑫零售 06808 HK 买入 11.47 消费 -- 家电 海尔电器 01169 HK 买入 28.73 电力设备 东方电气 01072 HK 收集 15.00 电力 华润电力 00836 HK 收集 24.30 环保 光大国际 00257 HK 收集 12.10 博彩 永利澳门 01128 HK 收集 30.00 基建 中国铁建 01186 HK 收集 11.50 保险 中国平安 02318 HK 买入 90.60 互联网 腾讯 00700 HK 买入 153.00 互联网 优酷 YOKU US 买入 US$32.00 机械 中联重科 01157 HK 收集 7.60 港口 招商局国际 00144 HK 买入 33.00 房地产 华润置地 01109 HK 收集 23.70 航运及物流 中海发展 01138 HK 买入 6.50 通信设备 联想 00992 HK 买入 13.50 电信服务 中国联通 00762 HK 买入 14.40 收费公路 浙江沪杭甬 00576 HK 收集 9.50 资料来源 : 国泰君安国际 注 : 展望中所有分析均基于 2014 年 12 月 31 日的收市价 按行业英文首字母排序 受惠国企改革个股名单 行业 公司 代码 评级 6-18 个月目标价 (HK$) 银行 交通银行 03328 HK 中性 5.93 综合 上海实业 00363 HK 收集 31.00 电力设备 上海电气 02727 HK 中性 4.20 基建 中国中铁 00390 HK 收集 6.05 基建 中国铁建 01186 HK 收集 11.50 基建 中交建 01800 HK 收集 9.20 石化 中国石油 00857 HK 中性 9.30 石化 中国石化 00386 HK 中性 6.70 资料来源 : 国泰君安国际 See the last page for disclaimer page 9 of 16

受益于沪港通个股名单 行业 公司 代码 评级 6-18 个月目标价 (HK$) 银行 建设银行 00939 HK 收集 6.76 银行 中信银行 00998 HK 中性 5.91 银行 农业银行 01288 HK 收集 4.50 银行 工商银行 01398 HK 收集 5.92 银行 民生银行 01988 HK 收集 11.90 银行 交通银行 03328 HK 中性 5.93 银行 中国银行 03988 HK 买入 5.25 煤炭 兖州煤业 01171 HK 中性 5.40 煤炭 中煤能源 01898 HK 中性 4.80 电力设备 东方电气 01072 HK 收集 15.00 电力设备 上海电气 02727 HK 中性 4.20 电力 大唐发电 00991 HK 中性 4.50 电力 华电国际 01071 HK 中性 5.10 博彩 永利澳门 01128 HK 收集 30.00 博彩 美高梅中国 02282 HK 收集 24.00 保险 新华保险 01336 HK 收集 37.50 互联网 腾讯 00700 HK 买入 153.00 工业制造 晨鸣纸业 01812 HK 买入 4.50 工业制造 株洲南车时代电气 03898 HK 买入 55.30 石化 中国石油 00857 HK 中性 9.30 石化 中国石化 00386 HK 中性 6.70 航运及物流 中海发展 01138 HK 买入 6.50 航运及物流 中海集运 02866 HK 收集 2.85 通信设备 联想 00992 HK 买入 13.50 电信服务 中国电信 00728 HK 收集 5.40 电信服务 中国联通 00762 HK 买入 14.40 电信服务 中国移动 00941 HK 收集 101.00 其他 港交所 00388 HK 收集 195.00 资料来源 : 国泰君安国际 See the last page for disclaimer page 10 of 16

同时在香港 深圳上市的 A+H 股公司 A 股代码 H 股代码 名称 A 股股价 (RMB) H 股股价 (HKD) H 对 A 折溢价 * 000002 CH 02202 HK 万科 13.900 17.300-0.4% 000039 CH 02039 HK 中集集团 21.890 17.220-37.1% 000063 CH 00763 HK 中兴通讯 18.060 16.840-25.4% 000157 CH 01157 HK 中联重科 7.060 5.910-33.0% 000338 CH 02338 HK 潍柴动力 27.290 32.700-4.1% 000488 CH 01812 HK 晨鸣纸业 6.170 3.680-52.3% 000513 CH 01513 HK 丽珠集团 49.440 47.350-23.4% 000585 CH 00042 HK 东北电气 4.060 1.850-63.5% 000666 CH 00350 HK 经纬纺机 18.000 8.980-60.1% 000756 CH 00719 HK 新华制药 7.970 3.710-62.8% 000898 CH 00347 HK 鞍钢股份 6.150 6.600-14.1% 000921 CH 00921 HK 海信科龙 8.350 6.850-34.4% 002202 CH 02208 HK 金风科技 14.130 12.060-31.7% 002490 CH 00568 HK 山东墨龙 8.630 3.050-71.7% 002594 CH 01211 HK 比亚迪 38.150 30.350-36.3% 002672 CH 00895 HK 东江环保 34.740 27.150-37.5% 002703 CH 01057 HK 浙江世宝 25.950 6.940-78.6% 简单平均 -39.2% 资料来源 : 港交所 深交所 * 注 :HKD/RMB 汇率为 0.8002, 负数表示 H 股较 A 股有折让 截至 2014 年 12 月 31 日收市 See the last page for disclaimer page 11 of 16

受益于降息 降准的股票名单 行业 公司 代码 评级 6-18 个月目标价 (HK$) 航空 东方航空 00670 HK 买入 5.20 航空 国际航空 00753 HK 买入 8.40 航空 南方航空 01055 HK 买入 5.20 银行 建设银行 00939 HK 收集 6.76 银行 中信银行 00998 HK 中性 5.91 银行 农业银行 01288 HK 收集 4.50 银行 工商银行 01398 HK 收集 5.92 银行 民生银行 01988 HK 收集 11.90 银行 交通银行 03328 HK 中性 5.93 银行 招商银行 03968 HK 收集 23.20 银行 中国银行 03988 HK 买入 5.25 水泥 海螺水泥 00914 HK 收集 36.80 电力 华润电力 00836 HK 收集 24.30 电力 华能国际 00902 HK 收集 10.25 电力 龙源电力 00916 HK 收集 9.20 电力 华能新能源 00958 HK 买入 3.50 电力 大唐发电 00991 HK 中性 4.50 电力 华电国际 01071 HK 中性 5.10 电力 大唐新能源 01798 HK 中性 1.08 电力 中国电力 02380 HK 中性 4.00 基建 中国中铁 00390 HK 收集 6.05 基建 中国铁建 01186 HK 收集 11.50 基建 中交建 01800 HK 收集 9.20 保险 中国太平 00966 HK 收集 21.70 保险 新华保险 01336 HK 收集 37.50 保险 中国平安 02318 HK 买入 90.60 保险 中国太保 02601 HK 收集 38.30 保险 中国人寿 02628 HK 收集 29.20 机械 中联重科 01157 HK 收集 7.60 机械 中国龙工 03339 HK 收集 1.95 工业制造 晨鸣纸业 01812 HK 买入 4.50 港口 大连港 02880 HK 中性 2.50 港口 厦门港 03378 HK 收集 2.60 房地产 中海外发展 00688 HK 收集 24.26 房地产 世茂房地产 00813 HK 收集 22.09 房地产 龙湖地产 00960 HK 中性 11.24 房地产 华润置地 01109 HK 收集 23.70 收费公路 深高速 00548 HK 收集 5.50 收费公路 安徽皖通 00995 HK 收集 5.00 资料来源 : 国泰君安国际 See the last page for disclaimer page 12 of 16

受惠 一带一路 政策个股 行业 公司 代码 评级 6-18 个月目标价 (HK$) 银行 中国银行 03988 HK 买入 5.25 水泥 海螺水泥 00914 HK 收集 36.80 电力设备 东方电气 01072 HK 收集 15.00 电力设备 哈尔滨电气 01133 HK 中性 4.85 电力设备 上海电气 02727 HK 中性 4.20 基建 中国铁建 01186 HK 收集 11.50 基建 中国中铁 00390 HK 收集 6.05 基建 中交建 01800 HK 收集 9.20 机械 中联重科 01157 HK 收集 7.60 机械 中国龙工 03339 HK 收集 1.95 工业制造 中国南车 01766 HK 买入 11.90 工业制造 株洲南车时代电气 03898 HK 买入 55.30 港口 招商局国际 00144 HK 买入 33.00 港口 中远太平洋 01199 HK 收集 13.00 航运及物流 中国远洋 01919 HK 收集 4.00 航运及物流 中海集运 02866 HK 收集 2.85 资料来源 : 国泰君安国际 自贸区与区域振兴相关股票名单 行业 公司 代码 评级 6-18 个月目标价 (HK$) 清洁能源 滨海投资 02886 HK 买入 0.59 综合 上海实业 00363 HK 收集 31.00 保险 中国太保 02601 HK 收集 38.30 港口 厦门港 03378 HK 收集 2.60 港口 天津港 03382 HK 中性 1.55 资料来源 : 国泰君安国际 See the last page for disclaimer page 13 of 16

值得长期持有 基本面健康的公司 行业 公司 代码 评级 6-18 个月目标价 (HK$) 银行 建设银行 00939 HK 收集 6.76 银行 农业银行 01288 HK 收集 4.50 银行 工商银行 01398 HK 收集 5.92 银行 中国银行 03988 HK 买入 5.25 煤炭 中国神华 01088 HK 买入 27.50 消费 -- 食品饮料 康师傅 00322 HK 收集 20.70 消费 -- 食品饮料 蒙牛乳业 02319 HK 收集 33.00 消费 -- 酒店 如家酒店 HMIN US 买入 US$47.00 消费 -- 酒店 华住酒店 HTHT US 收集 US$26.20 消费 -- 日用品 恒安国际 01044 HK 收集 90.00 消费 -- 零售 高鑫零售 06808 HK 买入 11.47 消费 -- 家电 海尔电器 01169 HK 买入 28.73 综合 粤海投资 00270 HK 收集 10.00 环保 光大国际 00257 HK 收集 12.10 环保 北控水务 00371 HK 收集 6.38 电力设备 东方电气 01072 HK 收集 15.00 电力 华润电力 00836 HK 收集 24.30 电力 龙源电力 00916 HK 收集 9.20 保险 中国平安 02318 HK 买入 90.60 工业制造 中国南车 01766 HK 买入 11.90 工业制造 株洲南车时代电气 03898 HK 买入 55.30 港口 招商局国际 00144 HK 买入 33.00 电信服务 中国移动 00941 HK 收集 101.00 收费公路 深高速 00548 HK 收集 5.50 收费公路 浙江沪杭甬 00576 HK 收集 9.50 资料来源 : 国泰君安国际 估值偏低 有上升空间的优质个股 行业 公司 代码 评级 6-18 个月目标价 (HK$) 银行 建设银行 00939 HK 收集 6.76 银行 农业银行 01288 HK 收集 4.50 银行 工商银行 01398 HK 收集 5.92 银行 中国银行 03988 HK 买入 5.25 煤炭 中国神华 01088 HK 买入 27.50 消费 -- 酒店 如家酒店 HMIN US 买入 US$47.00 保险 中国平安 02318 HK 买入 90.60 互联网 优酷 YOKU US 买入 US$32.00 航运及物流 中外运航运 00368 HK 收集 2.65 航运及物流 中海发展 01138 HK 买入 6.50 资料来源 : 国泰君安国际 See the last page for disclaimer page 14 of 16

Research Department 研究部 Grace Liu 刘谷 Head of Research, Market Strategy, Petrochemicals 主管, 市场策略 石化 liugu@gtjas.com (86755) 23976698 / (852) 25097516 Ray Zhao 赵睿 Conglomerate, E-commerce 综合 电子商务 zhaorui@gtjas.com (86755) 23976755 Harry Chen 陈欢瑜 Aviation, Automobiles & Components Gary Wong 黄家玮 Environmental Protection, Infrastructure 航空 汽车 chenhuanyu@gtjas.com (86755) 23976683 环保 基建 gary.wong@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092616 Leo Wu 吴逸超 Coal, Electricity 煤炭 电力 wuyichao@gtjas.com (86755) 23976871 Noah Hudson Noah Hudson Consumer (Hotels), Gaming 消费 ( 酒店 ) 博彩 noah.hudson@gtjas.com (86755) 23976684 Sunny Kwok 郭日升 Consumer (Food & Beverage, Household Products) 消费 ( 食品饮料 日用品 ) sunny.kwok@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092642 Jason Song 宋然 Market Strategy 市场策略 jason.song@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25097768 Shirley Gu 古乔艺 Market Strategy 市场策略 guqiaoyi@gtjas.com (86755) 23976718 Square Chui 徐惠芳 Futures 期货 square.chui@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092629 Kevin Guo 郭勇 Raw Materials, Gas 原材料 燃气 kevin.guo@gtjas.com (86755) 23976671 Ricky Lai 黎柏坚 Telecommunications, Internet 电信 互联网 ricky.lai@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092603 Dayton Wang 王庆鲁 Insurance, Fixed-income 保险 债券 wangqinglu010421@gtjas.com (86755) 23976680 Angus Chan 陈庆 Machinery, Construction Materials 机械 建材 angus.chan@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092665 Richard Cao 曹柱 Banking 银行 caozhu013592@gtjas.com (86755) 23976870 Louis Chan 陈少威 Consumer (Apparel) 消费 ( 服装 ) louis.chan@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25095310 Jun Zhu 朱俊杰 Clean Energy, Electric Equipment 清洁能源 电力设备 junjie.zhu@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25097592 Ivan Zhou 周一帆 Shipping & Logistics, Ports 航运物流 港口 zhouyifan013593@gtjas.com (86755) 23976685 Andrew Song 宋涛 Consumer (Retailing), Home Appliances 消费 ( 零售 ) 家电 andrew.song@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25095313 Van Liu 刘斐凡 Research Assistant 研究助理 liufeifan@gtjas.com (86755) 23976672 Raul Song 宋辞 Research Assistant 研究助理 raul.song@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25095317 Sherry Li 李沁亦 Research Assistant 研究助理 liqinyi@gtjas.com (86755) 23976675 Esabella Zhao 赵舒蔓 Research Assistant, Translator 研究助理 翻译员 zhaoshuman013399@gtjas.com (86755) 23976681 See the last page for disclaimer page 15 of 16

Company Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Buy Relative Performance >15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Accumulate Relative Performance is 5% to 15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral. Reduce Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sell Relative Performance <-15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sector Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Outperform Relative Performance >5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral. Underperform Relative Performance <-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable. DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS (1) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Except for Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited-H shares (01812) and China All Access (Holdings) Limited (00633), Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited-H shares (00338), Guangshen Railway Company Limited-H shares (00525), Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited (01788) and Binhai Investment Company Limited (02886), Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4) Guotai Junan and its group companies have had investment banking relationships with Huaneng Power (00902)/ China Dredging (00871)/ China Shipping Container Lines Co. Ltd. - H Shares (02866)/ China U-Ton Holdings Ltd. (06168)/ Merry Garden Holdings Ltd. (01237)/ Xiezhong International Holdings Limited (03663)/ China All Access Holdings Ltd. (00633)/ China Int'l Marine Containers (Group) Co., Ltd. (02039)/ Yanzhou Coal Mining Co.,Ltd (01171)/ Modern Land (01107)/ China Creative Home (01678)/ Huaneng Renewables Corporation Limited (00958)/ Xiao Nan Guo (03666)/ Jiangsu Express (00177)/ Colour Life (01778)/ CGN Meiya (01811)/ Chanjet (01588)/ Baguio Green (01397)/ CH Wood Opt (08099)/ Redco Ppt (01622)/ Powerlong (01238) and SH Electric (02727) mentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports, including investment banking, investment services and etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales persons, dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 2015 Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited. All Rights Reserved. 27/F., Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza, 181 Queen s Road Central, Hong Kong. Tel.: (852) 2509-9118 Fax: (852) 2509-7793 Website: www.gtja.com.hk See the last page for disclaimer page 16 of 16