05 Nov. 05 6 Arab World Studies No. 6 04 04 0 05 05 ~ 06 00007 67-56 05 06-0045 - D85 A 04 05 05 7 http / /forex. hexun. com / 05-0 - 7 /744678. html 45
05 6 04 0 04 0 04 6 04 9 ~ 05 55% 04 05 0 04 60 / 4 04 IMF Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia January 05 p.. BP 05 05 5 7 04 0 05 87 / IMF Regional Economic Outlook Middle East and Central Asia October 04 p. 0. 4 Saudi claims oil price strategy success Financial Times May 05. 46
04 04 6 04 0 04 04 04 04 IMF Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia January 05 p. 4. 47
05 6 04 04. 5% 0. 5% 04. 75% 0 ~ 05. 5% 7% % 04 4. 6% 4 04. 7% 0. 6% 5 05. 4 5 / IMF Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia January 05 p. 6. IMF Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia October 04 p. 8. Ibid p.. IMF Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia January 05 p. 7. Ibid p. 4. 48
00 04 97 04 0 6 94. 0% 05 400 0% 04 GDP 04 4. 6% 76 0 507 896 4 0 646. 4 04 474. 6. % 04 0 6. 6% 4. % 5 04 80 0 00 04 0 5. 8% 04 7. 0% 6 04 / 04 /05 9. % 4 5 6 Saudi claims oil price strategy success Financial Times May 05. EIU Country Report: Saudi Arabia, March, 05 p. 9. 05 0 9 EIU Country Report: United Arab Emirates March 04 p. 7 EIU Country Report: United Arab E- mirates March 05 p. 0. EIU Country Report: United Arab Emirates March 05 pp. 0 -. EIU Country Report: Kuwait March 05 p. 9 EIU Country Report: Kuwait March 04 p. 8. 49
05 6 04. 4% 7 0 9 8 GDP 4. 9% 0. % 0 04 4. 5% 05 0% 04 4. % 4. 04. % 4. 4% 04 5 04 6. 4% 6 04 45. 9 49. 7% 5. % 7 04. 9% 8 4 5 6 7 8 EIU Country Report: Qatar March 05 p. 6. Ibid p. 9. EIU Country Report: Bahrain March 05 p. 6. Ibid p. 0. EIU Country Report: Iraq March 05 p. 7. Ibid p. 9. EIU Country Report: Libya March 05 pp. 8-9 EIU Country Report: Libya March 04 p. 7. EIU Country Report: Yemen st Quarter 05 p.. 50
04 04 5. 4%. 04. 8% 4. 5% 04 0. 8% 04. 5% 0. 6% 04 04 EIU Country Report: Algeria March 05 pp. 0 -. EIU Country Report: Iran March 04 p. 0. IMF Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia January 05 p. 4. 5
05 6. 04 /05 4% 04 /05 0. 5% 04 GDP 7. %. % 04. % 5% 4 04 4. 9% 04. 4% 5. 04 04 0. 5% 6 04 % 7 4 5 6 7 EIU Country Report: Egypt March 05 p. 7. Ibid p. 5. EIU Country Report: Jordan March 05 p. 8. EIU Country Report: Tunisia March 05 pp. 7-9. EIU Country Report Morocco March 05 pp. 5-7. EIU Country Report: Syria March 05 p. 9. EIU Country Report: Lebanon March 05 p. 9. 5
0 8. 9% 04 6. 9%. 04 04. 9%. 9% 04. % 4 04 5 04 % 05 ~ 06 05 05. % 04 0. % 6 5 04 05 4 5 6 EIU Country Report: Lebanon March 05 p. 6. EIU Country Report: Israel March 05 p. 7. Ibid pp. 9-6. EIU Country Report: Turkey March 05 p.. 04 9. 4% 6. 8% 0 8. 9% 0. % EIU Country Report: Turkey March 05 p. 7. IMF Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices World Economic Outlook October 05 pp. XIII XV. 5
05 6 05. % 4 7 0. 4% 0. % 05 ~ 06 05 0 50 / 04 0 0 ~ 5 / 4 5 4 5 http / /zhuanlan. zhihu. com /zhongdongxueren /05040 EIU Country Report: Saudi Arabia September 05 p. 9. IMF Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices World Economic Outlook October 05 p.. IMF Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices World Economic Outlook October 05 p. xiii. IMF 05 0 05 80 ~ 8 54
5 60 / 05 870 GDP % 900 GDP % 05 0 GDP % 05 760 0 GDP 8% G0 05 05 9 0 7 ~ 8 5 ~ 6 IMF Regional Economic Outlook Update, Middle East and Central Asia May 05 p.. 55
05 6 56
Impacts of the Global Economic Changes on the Middle - East Economy JIANG Mingxin Jiang Mingxin Institute of West-Asian and African Studies Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Abstract The w orld economy has undergone many significant changes since 04 such as the consolidation of global economic recovery the differentiation of economic growth among the major economies the US normalization of monetary policy as well as the slump of international oil prices all these factors have made and will make great impacts on the MENA economy. However due to the lagged effects of the world economic changes especially that of the oil price in the international futures market the MENA economies followed by and large their trend in 0 during most of time in 04 namely most influenced by the slow decline of international oil price and rapid change of the regional security situation. In 05 as the downside risks to the world economy become more pronounced and that the slump of international oil prices continues the regional security issues become more complex and protracted the Fed is expected to raise its policy rates the outlook of MENA economic growth in 05-6 becomes increasingly negative. Key Words International Oil Price Security WANA Economy 57