89 6 189222 * *
190 cutting edge 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 Tun-jen Cheng, Chi Huang, and Samuel S.G. Wu, eds., Inherited Rivalry (Boulder, Colorado: Lynne Rienner, 1995) 2 Gregory Henderson, Richard Ned Lebow, and John G. Stoessinger, eds., Divided Nations in a Divided World (New York: David McKay, 1974) 3 4 5 1950-1989 6 7 8 9 10 Yu-Shan Wu, The Collapse of the Bipolar System and Mainland China's Foreign
89 6 191 11 12 13 14 15 Policy, Issues and Studies, vol. 29, no. 7 (July 1993), pp. 1-25. 11 12 13 Lowell Dittmer, The Chinese Mini-Triangle : An Analysis of United States Policy Toward China and Taiwan, working paper, 1996. 14 15 Yu-Shan Wu, Exploring Dual Triangles: The Development of Taipei-Washington-Beijing Relations, Issues and Studies, vol. 32, no. 10 (October 1996), pp. 26-52.
192 Richard Nixon Henry Kissinger pivot Lowell Dittmer The Strategic Triangle: An Elementary Game-Theoretical Analysis 16 wing 17 tilting 16 Lowell Dittmer, The Strategic Triangle: An Elementary Game-Theoretical Analysis, World Politics, vol. 33, no. 4 (July 1981), pp. 485-516. 17
89 6 193 romantic triangle 18 menage à trois marriage unite veto 19 outcast partner 20 desirability 1 1 18 19 Lowell Dittmer Lowell Dittmer, The Strategic Triangle : A Critical Review, in Ilpyo ng J. Kim, ed., The Strategic Triangle: China, the United States and the Soviet Union (New York: Paragon House Publisher, 1987), p. 34 Lowell Dittmer, The Strategic Triangle: An Elemental Game-Theoretical Analysis 20 Yu-Shan Wu, Exploring Dual Triangles: The Development of Taipei-Washington-Beijing Relations
194 1 1
89 6 195 Pivot 2 1 1 Friend 2 2 2 Partner 1 3 2 Wing 1 4 3 Enemy 0 5 3 Outcast 0 6 4 Yu-Shan Wu, Exploring Dual Triangles: The Development of Taipei- Washington-Beijing Relations, p. 30 21 21 Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1994)
196 22 unintending pivot 22
89 6 197 Otto von Bismarck Wilhelm I, 1797-1888 Frederick III, 1831-1888 Wilhelm II, 1859-1941
198 23 24 the Second Reich sated 25 French revanchism 23 24 25 Stephen J. Lee, Aspects of European History: 1789-1980 (London: Routledge, 1982), p. 134.
89 6 199 26 27 Dreikaiserbund 28 German Kaiser Austrian Emperor Russian Tsar 29 Count Harry Arnim 30 26 Rene Albrecht-Carrie, A Diplomatic History of Europe Since the Congress of Vienna (New York: Harper & Row, 1973), p. 164 27 D. G. Williamson, Bismarck and Germany: 1862-1890 (London: Longman, 1992), p. 66 28 29 Peter Pulzer, Germany: 1870-1945 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1997), p. 41. 30 Gordon A. Craig, Germany 1866-1945 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1978), p. 105
200 menage à trois 31 31 Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy, p. 165
89 6 201 32 32 N.Y. Danilevskii Russia and Europe Nikolai Ignatiev
202 Count Gyula Andrássy Aleksandr Gorchakov Reichstadt Nikolai Ignatiev Treaty of San Stefano 33 honest broker 34 The Dual Alliance 35 33 Peter Pulzer, Germany: 1870-1945, p. 42. 34 Fritz Stern, Gold and Iron (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1977), p. 316. 35
89 6 203 36 junior partner 37 38 39 40 41 36 Otto Pflanze, Bismarck and the Development of Germany (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1963), p. 79. 37 Rene Albrecht-Carrie, A Diplomatic History of Europe Since the Congress of Vienna, pp. 177-178 38 Fritz Stern, Gold and Iron, p. 344 39 D.G. Williamson, Bismarck and Germany: 1862-1890, p. 71. 40 Nicholas Der Bagdasarian, The Austro-German Rapprochement, 1870-1879: From the Battle of Sedan to the Dual Alliance (Cranbury, New Jersey: Associated University Presses, 1976), p. 301-302 41 Stephen J. Lee, Aspects of European History, p. 137.
204 42 43 44 42 W. N. Medlicott and Dorothy K. Coveney, eds., Bismarck and Europe (London: Edward Arnold, 1977), p. 126 43 Bleichroder D.G. Williamson, Bismarck and Germany: 1862-1890 (London: Longman, 1992), p. 72. 44 Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy, p. 164.
89 6 205 45 46 47 45 Rene Albrecht-Carrie, A Diplomatic History of Europe Since the Congress of Vienna, pp. 204-205 46 Count Leo von Caprivi (1890-1894)Prince Chlodwig-Hohenlohe (1894-1900)Prince Berhard von Bulow (1900-1909) Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg (1909-1917) 47 Francis Joseph
206 48 1871-1875 1875-1890 1890-1914 (1872-73) (1875-) (1879) (1881, 1884) (1890) (1904) 48 senior partner junior partner
89 6 207 (1887)
208 49 49 John W. Garver, China s Decision for Rapprochement with the United States, 1968-1971 (Boulder, Colo.: Westview, 1982).
89 6 209 50 51 Mikhail Gorbachev President Ronald Reagan 52 50 51 Yu-Shan Wu, Exploring Dual Triangles: The Development of Taipei-Washington-Beijing Relations, pp. 26-52 52
210
89 6 211 53 54 55 53 Yu-Shan Wu, The Collapse of the Soviet Union: A Crises and Sequences Approach, Political Science Review, no. 4 (December 1992), pp. 179-224 54 Yu-Shan Wu, The Collapse of the Bipolar System and Mainland China s Foreign Policy, Issues and Studies, vol. 29, no. 7 (July 1993), pp. 1-25 55 exogenous factors endogenous factors
212 56 56 Henry Kissinger, White House Years (Boston: Little, Brown, 1979), p. 165, 712
89 6 213 57 interim agreement 58 peace will not be disturbed from our side 59 57 58 59 Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy, p. 165
214 TMD 60 61 60 tilting 61
89 6 215
216 tilting policy 62 Count Andrássy 63 62 D.G. Williamson, Bismarck and Germany: 1862-1890, p. 65. 63 Nicholas Der Bagdasarian, The Astro-German Rapprochement, 1870-1879: From the Battle of Sedan to the Dual Alliance, p. 300.
89 6 217 Woodrow Wilson Fourteen Points 64 65 66 64 E.H. Carr, The Twenty Years Crisis: 1919-1939 (New York: Harper & Row, 1946)David A. Baldwin, ed., Neorealism and Neoliberalism (New York: Columbia University Press, 1993) 65 Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy, ch. 1. 66 1997
218 President James E. Carter
89 6 219 67 George W. Bush 68 69 William J. Clinton 70 F-16 71 delink 67 68 Strobe Talbott, Post-Victory Blues, Foreign Affairs, vol. 71, no. 1 (1991/1992), p. 69 69 Alan Tonelson, Prudence or Inertia? The Bush Administration s Foreign Policy, Current History, vol. 90, no. 558 (1991), pp. 311-316. 70 Far Eastern Economic Review, 19 November 1992, p. 16. 71
220 72 73 TMD 74 Taiwan Security Enhancement Act TMD 72 73 74 An Interview With China s Zhu Rongji, The Wall Sreet Journal, April 6, 1999, p. A23
89 6 221 WBT W B T W T Wt WtBT T B W B Wb WbBT Wb B T W Wt Wb W Wt W Wb Wb W Wt B T
222 sated 75 75
89 6 223 WTO 76 76 Robert G. Sutter, The Taiwan Crisis of 1995-96 and U.S. Domestic Politics, Conference on the Security Relationship Between the U.S. and Taiwan: After the March 1996 Mini-Crisis 85 7 10
224 Unintending Pivot: The US Between Taipei and Beijing Yu-Shan Wu Abstract This paper examines the literature on strategic triangle and the pivot role, compares German diplomacy under Otto von Bismarck of 1875-1890 and the China policy of the US in the 1990s as two unintending pivots, and analyzes the cause of tilting between wings by unintending pivots. We find sated powers are more interested in a menage à trios than a romantic triangle. When such powers take the role of a pivot, the chances are that they are unintending pivots. Secondly, for unintending pivots tilting between wings is determined not by elite strategic thinking, but by domestic politics. In the case of the US China policy, Washington s tilt towards either Taipei or Beijing is determined by the balance of power between idealism and realism, which in turn is synchronized with the presidential electoral cycles. Whenever presidential elections approach, or the opposition candidate defeats the incumbent (or candidate from the incumbent party), then idealism surges and Washington tilts towards Taipei. During the inter-election periods, however, realism rules and Washington tilts towards Beijing. Finally, compared with intending pivots, unintending pivots are less committed to their role in the strategic triangle, and are more prone to make structural tilts towards one wing, thus transforming a romantic triangle to a marriage. Key words: strategic triangle, pivot, wing, China policy, Bismarck, romantic triangle
89 6 225