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1 GEO GRA P HICAL RESEA RCH Vol124, No13 May, , 2,1, 1, 1 (1., ; 2., ) :, 20,, :,,,,,,, : ; ; : (2005) ,,, 20 50,, 1 111, [ 1 ],,, ( ESSP) ( IRS) ESSP,,, , 20 : ; : : ( KZCX32SW2321) ( ) (2004DFA07400) : (19632),,,, E2mail :

2 (SC - IGBP), IGBP, 112, / ( ),, : (1) ; (2) ; (3) ; (4) ; (5), (1) , ,,, [ 2 ] (2),,, [3 ] (3),,,,, [ 4 ] 212 (1) 50,, [4 ],,, (2) : [5 ] [6 ] [7 ] [8 ], (3) [9 ], , (4), (

3 3 : ) 57 %, % ; % % [10 ] (5),,, [11 ],, [ 12 ] 3 311, [2 ], 2000 [13 ] ,, [14 ] [2 ] ,, mm, 10 ( ),,, mm, ;,, 10 60mm,,, % [15 ] 313 (1),,,,, 1 Tab11 Social2economic scenario and its demand on resources at present and around 2020AD, respectively (2000 ) (2020 ) GDP () [16 ] GDP( ) [16,17 ] () [16,17 ] () [17 ] () [17 ] (61 6 %) 116 ( > 10 %) (m 2 ) [17 ] [16,17 ] 36 % 56 % [16 ] 40 % 30 % [16 ] () [18,19 ] (2000 ) (2020 ) (10 8 t) [20 ] (10 8 m 3 ) [21 ] [21 ] 53 % 75 % [21 ] 50 % 70 % (10 8 t) [22 ] [23 ] (10 6 t) [24 ] (10 6 t) [24 ] (10 6 t) [24 ] (10 6 t) [24 ]

4 , 1949, 300, t t t t t t 50,,,, 10 1, 2 3, 5 [ 25 ], t, t (), ( ), t ;,1018 % [26 ] 50, 20,,,, ( POPS) , t t [27 ], : (1) SO %2115 %, 7818 %, ;, 9717 % 100 o E [28 ] 6316 %,,,, [29 ] (2) 20 80,, km 2 ;90,, km ,5414 % ; 3714 %p H 516 [ 27 ] (3),, , 1/ 3,1/ 4,50 %,40 %,60 %70 % [30 ] (4), t, 20 90,, ; 237, 1918 % [9 ] (5) t,8 %10 % ; t, m 2 ;50 %, 10 %

5 3 : ,, 1/ 5 [ 9 ], ; 1/ 8 ( ) 7219 %, 2917 % ; ,21, 1 [27 ],, , 816,,,5600 m 3, hm 2 [31 ],,,, ,, [32 ], m 3, m 3[33 ],, 4 50,,,,, % 1978,,,, 159 4/ 5 ;,56 % ;,, 2000, , 3011 %3911 %, 28 %56 % [34 ] 1978,,,,, 2, ;,,, [ 35 ] 90,, ,20 90,,

6 ; [36,37 ], kg,51161 %,29103 % [38 ], [36 ], ( ) ; ( ) [ 36 ] % %, % ; % % ; % % [37 ] GDP, 30,,,,,1978, GDP GDP,, GDP GDP ;,GDP,, GDP [35 ], ( ) () ; ( ) ( ) ; [39 ] ,20 80,, [18 ],, % %17199 %, [ 40 ] ,,, , %,, [ 41 ],, [35,41 ], % % ; ,618,20 515, [ 18 ],,1978,,,,

7 3 : GDP,, GDP, [36 ] 414,, 50 : (1), 95 % 80 %70 % [42 ] 50,,,,, 50, [42 ],, [25 ] (2) 1980,, ,,,, [43 ],8,4,18, 413, , 9 [ 44 ] (3),, () () 1993,,, t, t, 34 % , 50, [45,46 ], [ 47 ] 41511, 50, 20 80,, km 2 / a [48 ] hm 2, hm 2[49 ], ,81 %, - [50 ]

8 ,, , hm 2, 1/ 4 [51 ], [52 ],, hm 2, hm 2[53 ], , 212 %,; 19, [50 ], %, 215 %4 % km km 2, km 2 90, 2713 %,2460km 2[54 ] ;2460km 2, 41513,20 70,,,,, %, hm m 3,,, hm 2,, 20 90, [55 ], PgC, 20 70, 0145PgC, 4138PgC PgC,, PgC a - 1[45 ] PgC a - 1[46 ] 41514, 50 %60 %, hm 2, 22 %,85 % , 30 %50 %, [56 ] 41515, hm 2, 50 % hm hm 2, 326, hm hm 2 50, 64 %, hm 2[57 ] ; %, 30 % ; hm 2,

9 3 : ,30 [ 33 ] 41516, km 2 [58 ] 50,,, t,70 % ;, hm 2, 15m, 50m [59 ] 5 511, 2020, 2000,35,, 50 % 30 %, 15, [60 ],,, (1) 20 % ; 1,7 ;, 75 %90 %,90 %,118,23,, : (1), [16 ] ; (2),, %10 %,116 [17 ] ; (3), %52 % [17 ] 513 (1), , 117 ;2050,212, [ 2 ] 2050,,, ;50 27 % 2100, 2628cm ;,,,, [2 ] (2), [11 ],,,, t, %

10 % [61 ], 0108 hm 2 ( ) 011 hm 2 (), ( 0128 hm 2 ), ( 012 hm 2 ) hm 2, hm 2,0113 hm 2 12 (), hm 2 [62 ] (3) 1/ 4,18 [63 ] m 3 [21 ], 20,,, m 3[63 ] (4) 11 %,214 %, 112 % 230,51 % [64 ],,,, t, t, 34 % t t, [ 22 ],, 2020, t m 3, 60 % 50 % [22 ] (5) 80 % 90 % 70 % [ 42 ] 45, , , ,, [65 ] %38 %, 2512 %2818 %, 7715 %91 %, 2917 %69 % [66 ] (6),,GDP 10 %,GDP 1 % [67 ],,, (7) 20, 20,,,,

11 3 : , 50,, ,, ,,,,,,, 50,,,,,,,, 612, 50,,,, ;,,, 613,, [ 3 ],,,,,,,, 614,,,,,,,,

12 356 24,,,, 615,,,,,,,, : [ 1 ] IGBP. Global Change and Earth System :a planet under pressure ( IGBP Science Series 4) [ 2 ]. 21.,2004, (7) :47. [ 3 ],..,2003,5 (2) :5258. [ 4 ].?,2003,1 (2) :58. [ 5 ]. :.,2003, (1) :2426. [ 6 ]..,1999, (5) :3334. [ 7 ]..,1996, (11) :1216. [ 8 ]..,2000,24 (4) :2334. [ 9 ] http :/ / www1cpirc1org1cn/ index1asp1 [ 10 ] g ,http :/ / / schfac/ libr/ ht m1 [ 11 ]..,1996,11 (3) : [ 12 ]..,2003,12 (3) :17. [ 13 ],,, ,2002,22 (2) : [ 14 ],, (D ),2002, 32 (4) : [ 15 ]. (). :,2002. [ 16 ] , (9) :5154. [ 17 ] ,26 (6) :16. [ 18 ]..,2003 (6) :5158. [ 19 ]..,2000,21 (10) :27. [ 20 ],, ,2004,6 (3) :5712. [ 21 ]..,2003,23 (2) :15. [ 22 ], ,26 (2) :47. [ 23 ]..,2002,17 (1) :713. [ 24 ],..,2002,23 (6) : [ 25 ]..,2004, (1) :3944. [ 26 ], ,15 (1) :1723. [ 27 ] ,http :/ / www1zhb1 gov1cn/. [ 28 ]. CO2,SO2NO x 1 o 1 o. :. (). :,

13 3 : [ 29 ],,..,1998,22 (4) : [ 30 ].. (),2000,36 (6) : [ 31 ]. 21.,1999,21 (3) :9398. [ 32 ]..,1999, (5) :4043. [ 33 ],..,2003,10 (4) : [ 34 ]..,2000,19 (1) :16. [ 35 ],. 20.,2001,21 (5) : [ 36 ]..,2000,20 (3) :8286. [ 37 ],..,2003,25 (3) :4956. [ 38 ],..,2002, (2) :3860. [39 ],..,2001,11 (1) :3437. [ 40 ],..,2003,58 (2) : [ 41 ]. 60.,1997, (2) :1115. [ 42 ]..,2002, (5) :1317. [ 43 ],,.. :, [ 44 ],,..,2001 (4) :1318. [ 45 ] Fang Jingyun, Chen Anping, Peng Changhui, et al1 Changes in forest biomass carbon storage in China between 1949 and Science, 2001, 292 : [ 46 ] Xu Deying. Forestry and Land Use Change Assessment. Asian Development Bank Report Chapter , Manila, Philipines [ 47 ],..,2001,46 (8) : [ 48 ],,..,2003,23 (5) : [ 49 ] http :/ / www1 mlr1 gov1cn/ query/ gtzygk/ index1 ht m1 [ 50 ],,, ,2003,22 (1) :1 12. [ 51 ],,.. :,2000. [ 52 ],,,. 300.,2003 (8) : [ 53 ],,..,2001,20 (2) : [ 54 ]. -.,2002,21 (2) : [ 55 ],,,. 50.,2001,16 (5) : [ 56 ],,..,2003,13(4) :4650. [ 57 ],,..,2000,22 (1) :913. [ 58 ],.. (),2003 (1) :5961. [ 59 ],,,..,2001,25 (12) :2022. [ 60 ],.,.,2002 (12) :1012. [ 61 ],.,. :, [ 62 ]..,2000,22 (3) :2428. [ 63 ]. :.,1998, (12) :2527. [ 64 ]..,2003, (3) :1619. [ 65 ]..,2003 (2) :1216. [ 66 ]. 21.,2001 (1) :2028. [ 67 ].. (),2000,37 (6) :

14 Remarkable environmental changes in China during the past 50 years : a case study on regional research of global environmental change GE Quan2sheng 1,FAN G Xiu2qi 2,1,ZHAN G Xue2qin 1,WU Shao2hong 1 (1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing ,China ; 2. School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing , China) Abstract :More and more attention is paid to the combination of global and regional issues in t he sutdy of global environmental change ( GEC). The GEC research emp hasizes t hat t he global environmental problems should be probed t hrough regional studies. Resources and environmental problems have become one important issues of GEC research. The geo2 grap hical environment of China has significantly changed during t he past 50 years due to t he intense ant hropogenic activities and t he glo bal enviro nmental changes1 The main chan2 ges of the p hysical processes and environment element s are as follows : 1) t he shift of cli2 mate zones in response to global warming ; 2) the uneven precipitation changes inducing more floods in southern China and more severe drought s in northern China ; 3) serious pol2 lutio n and enormo us demand o n materials and energy ; and 4) t he significant changes in natural hydrological process1 As to t he geograp hical patterns, t he economic geograp hical pattern has changed in t he process of industrialization, which brought changes as well to t he patterns of pop ulation, urban system, and supply2demand of nat ural resources1 As a result, t he land cover pattern has been greatly modified1 The urban and transportation ar2 ea has expanded quickly and occupied a great deal of farmland, causing farmland reductio n in core agricult ural area and cultivatio n increase in marginal agricult ural area1 The nat ural forest area is reducing while t he forest plantatio n is expanding1 The grassland is shrinking and has serio usly degraded1 The area of lakes and wetland has decreased, and t he sea farming area has remarkably increased1 The above2mentioned remarkable environmental changes indicated t hat some irreversi2 ble changes on environmental element s have taken place, and t he resources and environ2 ment have beco me key limiting factors to natio nal securit y1 The f ut ure develop ment of China is facing critical challenges f rom various risks on resource and environment issues, e1 g1 climate risk under t he global warming, t he risk of farmland and food supplies, t he risk of water resources, the risk of energy, t he risk of mineral resources, t he risk of envi2 ronmental quality, and the potential risk of some great project s1 The geograp hical envi2 ronment of China should be st udied from t he global views1 Key words :geograp hical environment ;China ;global environmental change

738 29,, ( ),, , , 112 (1) : [ 13 ], Q, : Q = CI/ FI (1) Q ; CI ( ) ; FI ( ), 100 ; Q = 1, ; Q < 1, ; Q > 1, [14

738 29,, ( ),, , , 112 (1) : [ 13 ], Q, : Q = CI/ FI (1) Q ; CI ( ) ; FI ( ), 100 ; Q = 1, ; Q < 1, ; Q > 1, [14 29 4 2010 4 GEO GRA P HICAL RESEA RCH Vol129, No14 Apr1, 2010 : 1996 2005 1, 1,2, 3, 1 (11, 100101 ; 21, 350007 ; 31, 100005) : 1996 2005,,, 10,,,,, ;,, 10,,,,, : ; ; ; : 100020585 (2010) 0420737211 (),