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2 National Sun Yat-Sen University Institute of China and Asia-Pacific Studies The Ph. D. Dissertation The Modern East Asia System: Patterns, Changes, and Dynamics Graduate Student Yu, Hubert Chia-che Adviser Tseng, I-jen Ph. D. Weng, Jia-hsi Ph. D. January 2010

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6 The Modern East Asia System: Patterns, Changes, and Dynamics Abstract By integrating system theories, geopolitics, strategic studies and historical sociology, this dissertation gets a research approach of dynamics of system changes, to explore the modern East Asian System: patterns, changes and dynamics. As the aspect of system changes, the Opium War (1839) between the British Empire and the Qing Empire led the collapse of the Tributary System, marked the beginning of modern East Asia System. All the Perry s Black Ship, the Great Game between Britain and Russia, Qing-Japanese War, Russo-Japanese War, the Pacific War, the collapse of Soviet Union and so on affected the changes of modern East Asia System, and gradually shaped into the current East Asian system: the coexistence of trade exchanges and military confrontation. As the aspect of system patterns, after the Opium War, the British became the dominant state of East Asia, and the operating principles of the West European State System replaced the Tributary System. The Great Game brought the first sea-land power game of the East Asia System. Japan Russo-Japanese war let Japan establish a sphere of influence. United States replaced Japan s sphere after the Pacific War. While the collapse of the Soviet Union, China could rebuild new Tributary System on the base of geopolitics of the Tributary System, and Beijing could become the new vertex in East Asia. Finally, the dissertation argues that the technological innovation, codes of geopolitics and join of numbers which were outside system, are the main dynamics of changes of modern East Asia System. However, with the recovery of the East Asian geo-economy and the rise of China, we should discuss the new dynamics of the future East Asia System. Keywords: East Asia System, Tributary System, West European States System, Geopolitics, Technology II

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13 Nemesis European landmass 1 East Asia quadrilateral 2 1 Union of Soviet Socialist Republics USSR or CCCP in Russian Halford Mackinder Halford J. Mackinder, The Round World and the Winning of the Peace, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 21, No. 4, 1943, pp

14 3 edge legacy Columbian age world-wide scope 7 tributary system 3 Robyn Lim, The Geopolitics of East Asia: The Search for Equilibrium New York: Routledge, 2003, p Roy Hofheinz and Kent Calder, The Eastasia Edge (New York: Basic Books, George, South Ossetia 6 David P. Calleo, Rethinking Europe s Future Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press, Halford J. Mackinder, The Geographic Pivot of History, Geographical Journal, Vol. 23, 1904, pp

15 Sea of Okhotsk 8 Robyn Lim, The Geopolitics of East Asia, pp Robert Ross, Bipolarity and Balancing in East Asia, in T. V. Paul and et al., eds. Balance of Power: Theory and Practice in the 21 st Century (Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press 2004), pp Robert Ross

16 social setting synchronicity diachronicity newly industrializing economies, NIEs Ferdinand de Saussure, Pacific Century Pacific Shift Roy Hofheinz and Kent Calder, The Eastasia Edge Staffan Burenstam Linder, The Pacific Century: Economic and Political Consequences of Asian-Pacific Dynamism (Standford, Calif.: Standford University Press, 1986) Harry Oshima, Economic Growth in Monsoon Asia (Tokyo: University of Tokyo Press, 1987) Douglas Stuart, ed. Security Within the Pacific Rim (London: Gower, 1987)

17 Atago 13,500 Hyuga 10% % % , , Annual Report to Congress: Military Power of the People s Republic of China , subject object inter-subject

18 Hedley Bull, The Theory of International Politics, , in James Der Derian (ed.), 6

19 Karl Polanyi linking 22 reduced theory International Theory: Critical Investigations (New York: New York University Press, 1995), pp Carl Polanyi Garvin McCain and Erwin M. Segal, The Game of Science (Monterey, CL: Brooks/Cole, 1973), p Kenneth Waltz, Man, the State, and War: A Theory of International Relations (New York: Columbia University Press, 1959)

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22 Bruce Russett and et al, World Politics: The Menu for Choice (Belmont, CA: Thomson Higher Education, 8 th ed, 2006), pp

23 Fukuyama flashpoint APEC China Rise China Threat 1978 GDP Francis Fukuyama, The End of History and the Last Man (New York: Free Press, 1992). 28 Robyn Lim, The Geopolitics of East Asia, p

24 29 situations 1945 located in time 29 futurology or futures studies Wendell Bell

25 (uni-mutlipolar system) Hedley Bull, The Theory of International Politics, , pp Samuel P. Huntington, The Lonely Superpower, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 78, No. 2. March/April 1999, pp

26 The China Threat 32 Ross H. Munro Nicholas D. Kristof Foreign Direct Investment, FDI 34 (China Quarterly) Greater China China s Transitional Economy China s Military in Transition David Shambaugh 35 Andrew G. Walder Ross H. Munro, Awakening Dragon the Real Danger in Asia from China, Policy Review, No. 62. Fall 1992, pp Nicholas D. Kristof, The Rise of China, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 72, No. 5. Nov/Dec 1993, pp David Shambaugh, Introduction: The Emergence of Great China, China Quarterly, No. 136, Special Issue: Greater China. Dec. 1993, pp

27 36 37 C 4 38 ISR (The Coming Conflict With China) 2000 (The China Threat) 36 Andrew G. Walder, China s Transitional Economic: Interpreting Its Significance, China Quarterly, No. 144, Special Issue: China s Transitional Economy. Dec. 1995, pp David Shambaugh, China s Military in Transition: Politics, Professionalism, Procurement and Power Projection, China Quarterly, No. 146, Special Issue: China s Military in Transition. Jun 1996, pp C 4 ISR (Command) (Control) (Communication) (Computer) (Intelligence) (Surveillance) (Reconnaissance) e ( 2001) David Shambaugh, China s Military in Transition: Politics, Professionalism, Procurement and Power Projection, pp Foreign Affairs International Security Commentary Policy Review 15

28 The Cox Report on Chinese Nuclear Espionage Bill Clinton 2009 Gross Domestic Product, GDP % 2009 identity (Richard Bernstein) ( 1997) Bill Gertz, The China Threat (Washington D.C.: Regnery Publishing, 2000) 42 David C. Kang, China Rising: Peace, Power, and order in East Asia (New York: Columbia University Press, 2007), pp Ross H. Munro, Awaking Dragon-The Real Danger in Asia is from China, pp Samuel P Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1996), pp

29 45 peaceful approach Robert G. Sutter, China s Rise in Asia: Promises and Perils (New York: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc, 2005). 47 The Chinese World Order: Traditional China's Foreign Relations (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1968), The United States and China (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1971), The Great Chinese Revolution (New York: Harper and Row Publisher, 1987) 1990 Huang, Ray China: A Macro History (New York: M. E. Sharpe, 1988) Hsu, Immanuel C. Y China s Entrance into the Family of Nations (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1960) The Rise of Modern China (New York: Oxford University Press, 4 th ed, 1990) 17

30 hard balancing soft balancing asymmetric balancing Michael Yahuda, The International Politics of the Asia-Pacific, (New York: Routledge, 1996). 49 Michael Leifer, ed. The Balance of Power in East Asia. (London: the Macmillan Press Ltd, 1986) and Paul, T. V Introduction: The Enduring Axioms of Balance of Power Theory and Their Contemporary Relevance, in T. V. Paul and et al., eds. Balance of Power: Theory and Practice in the 21 st Century, pp. 3 and Robert Ross, Bipolarity and Balancing in East Asia, pp

31 Robyn Lim, The Geopolitics of East Asia Peter J. Woolley, Geography and Japan s Strategic Choice: From Seclusion to Internationalization (Washington, D.C.: Potomac Book, Inc, 2005) Jonathan Bailey, Great Power Strategy in Asia: Empire, Culture and Trade, (New York: Routledge, 2007) 52 G. John Ikenberry and Michael Mastanduno, eds, International Relations Theory and the Asia-Pacific (New York: Columbia University Press, 2003)

32 E. H. Carr method of agreement method of difference 54 E. H. Carr, What is History? (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1963), pp E. H. Carr, What is History?, pp Theda Skocpol, State and Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia, and China (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1979), pp

33 Theda Skocpol, State and Social Revolutions, pp Robyn Lim, The Geopolitics of East Asia. 59 Akira Iriye, The Origins of the Second World War in Asia and the Pacific (New York: Longman Group, 1987). 21

34 60 factual data 61 nichy East Asia great East Asia Fringe East Asia 64 Asia 60 Hedley Bull, The Theory of International Politics, , pp Gerald Segal, Rethinking the Pacific (New York: Oxford University Press, 1990). southeast 22

35 Charles Elliot, Hugh Gough, Victor Purcell, South and East Asia since (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1965) 65 David C. Kang, China Rising, pp V 23

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41 system detént neo-neo synthesis 2 1 (Andrew Linklater) Andrew Linklater, Beyond Realism and Marxism: Critical Theory and International Relations (London: The MacMillan Press Ltd, 1990), pp Ole Wœver, The Rise and Fall of the Inter-paradigm Debate, in Steve Smith and et al, eds., International Theory: Positivism and Beyond (Cambridge: Cambridge 29

42 gains Kenneth N. Waltz 3 4 University Press, 1996), pp Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics (New York: McGraw-Hill, Inc, 1979). 4 English School 30

43 structure interacting units arrangement of its parts GM BP international society Hedley Bull and Adam Watson, eds., The Expansion of International Society (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1984) Stanley Hoffmann, International Systems and International Law, in Hoffman, The State of War: Essays on the Theory and Practice of International Politics (New York: Praeger, 1965), pp (unit veto) (universal) (hierarchic) Mortan A. Kaplan, System and Process in International Politics (New York: Wiley, 1964), p. 9 8 Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics, pp

44 9 anarchy ration 13 9 Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics, p Ibid., pp, (ordering principles) (coordination) (character) (distribution of capabilities) Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics, pp Ibid., p Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics, pp given 32

45 N 1 X 1 N 2 X 2 N 3 X Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics, p N X 33

46 14 15 regime public goods 16 free-rider entropy Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics, pp George Modelski A. F. K. Organski Charles P. Kindleberger Robert Gilpin Robert Keohane Paul Kennedy Immanuel Wallerstein Robert W. Cox 16 Charles P. Kindleberger, The World in Depression, (Berkeley, Calif.: University of California Press, 1973) 17 Stefano Guzzini, Realism in International Relations and International Political Economy: The Continuing Story of a Death Foretold (New York: Routledge, 1998), pp

47 Robert Gilpin, The Political Economy of International Relations (New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1987), pp Ibid, pp

48 hierarchy of prestige distribution of power international regime Robert Gilpin, War and Change in World Politics (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1981) Stanley Hoffmann the governance of an international system is a set of rights and rules that govern or at least influence the interactions among states 22 Robert Gilpin, War and Change in World Politics, pp

49 Robert Gilpin, The Political Economy of International Relations, pp Ibid, pp Timothy J. McKeown, Hegemonic Stability Theory and 19 th Century Tariff Levels in Europe, International Organization, 37(1). Winter 1983, pp Isabelle Grunberg, Exploring the Myth of Hegemonic Stability, International Organization, 44(4). Autumn 1990, pp Arthur A. Stein, The Hegemon s Dilemma: Great Britain, the United States, and the International Economic Order, International Organization, 38(2). Spring 1984, pp Stefano Guzzini, Realism in International Relations and International Political Economy, p

50 raw materials John Gerard Ruggie John Gerard Ruggie, International Responses to Technology: Concepts and Trends, International Organization, 29(3). Summer 1975, p Stephen D. Krasner, Structural Causes and Regime Consequence: Regimes as Intervening Variables, in Stephen D. Krasner, ed. International Regime (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1983), p Stephen D. Krasner, Structural Causes and Regime Consequence: Regimes as Intervening Variables, pp Robert O. Keohane, After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy (New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1984), pp. 32 and Robert Keohane powerful ideology of nationalism 38

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52 (hard power) (soft power) (smart power) Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics; Joseph Nye, Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics (New York: Public Affairs, 2004) strategic defense initiative, SDI 40

53 Nicholas Spykman, Geography and Foreign Policy, I, American Political Science Review, 32(1). 1938, p A.D-1914A.D

54 36 37 rimland Tuathail, (Essence of Decision) (standard operational process, SOPs) Graham T. Allison and Philip Zelikow, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (New York: Longman) 38 Nicholas Spykman, American s Strategy in World Politics: The United States and the Balance of Power (New York: Harcourt, Brace and Company, 1942). 42

55 Cohen, 2009: Ratzel Mackinder Mahan Bowman 2. Haushofer 3. Spykman 4. Kennan William Bullit domino theory ) linkage linchptin 5. Saul Bernard Cohen, Geopolitics: The Geography of International Relations (New York: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc, 2 nd ed, 2009)

56 location matters sense of vulnerability) pre-emptive strike) Alfred Mahan, The Influence of Sea Power upon History, (Boston: Little, Brown, and Company, 1998[1890]); Halford J. Mackinder, Democratic Ideals and Reality (London: Constable, 1919); Nicholas Spykman, The Geography of the Peace (New York: Harcourt, Brace and Company, 1944)

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58 44 Spykman, 1942: Theda Skocpol Theda Skocpol, State and Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia, and Chine (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1979), pp Nicholas Spykman, American s Strategy in World Politics, pp

59 46 geopolitical codes Jacques Levy, ed, From Geopolitics to Global Politics: A French Connection (London: Frank Cass Publishers, 2001) 47 John Lewis Gaddis, Strategies of Containment: A Critical Appraisal of Postwar American National Security Policy (New York: Oxford University Press, 1982), pp Jan Nijman, Geopolitical Codes, in John O Loughlin (ed.), Dictionary of Geopolitics (Westport, Conn.: Greenwood Press, 1994), pp Nicholas Spykman, The Geography of the Peace, p.7. 47

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61 1890 security dilemma product project routines standard operating procedure, SOP 49

62 enduring effects broad in scope difficult to reverse P 3 P 2 P 4 P 1 P 1 Planner P 2 Principle P 3 Perspective P 4 Perception P 5 Purpose P 6 Power P 7 Plan P 7 P 1 P 4 P 7 3P Planning P 6 P P 1 50 P 2 50 Amos A. Jordan and et al, American National Security: Policy and Process (Baltimore: The John Hopkins University Press, 3 rd ed, 1989), p

63 P 3 P 4 P 5 P 6 force-in-being P P 1 P 4 P 4 P 7 P P P 1 T F T H T P P 1 T F, Future T H, History T P, Present

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68 historical sociology bringing the state back in Andrew Linklater, Beyond Realism and Marxism, p

69 55 polymorphous Theda Skocpol Charles Tilly Michael Mann Anthony Giddens John M. Hobson Peter Evans Linda Weiss Dennis Smith, The Rise of Historical Sociology (Philadelphia: Temple University Press, 1991), p places present Charles Tilly, Historical Sociology, in Neil J. Smelser and Paul B. Baltes, eds, International Encyclopedia of the Behavioral and Social Sciences (Amsterdam: Elsevier Ltd, 2001), p

70 war making state making extraction Tilly, 1985: IEMP IEMP Charles Tilly, War Making and State Making as Organized Crime. in Peter B. Evans, and et al. eds. Bringing the State Back In (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1985), p IEMP Ideology, Economy, Military and Politics IEMP Michael Mann, The Source of Social Power: Volume I, A History of Power from the beginning to A.D (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1986), pp and figure 1.2 multiple overlapping intersecting Ibid, p IEMP Anthony Giddens, The Consequences of Modernity ( Standford: Standford University Press, 1990), pp outlines Hans Morgenthau Ann Tickner John M. Hobson, The Historical of the State and the State of Historical Sociology in International Relations, Review of International Political Economy, 5(2), 1998, p

71 multi-causality multi-spatiality 60 Ibid, pp John M. Hobson, The Historical of the State and the State of Historical Sociology in International Relations, p

72 4. partial autonomy complex change 62 tentative patterned mess, or patterned chaos texture Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics, p ahistoricism chronofetishism tempocentrism reification John M Hobson, What s at Stake in Bringing Historical Sociology Back into International Relations? Transcending Chronofetishism and tempocentrism in International Relations. in Stephen Hobden and John M. Hobson, eds, Historical Sociology of International Relations (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002), pp

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77 Sovereign State System Westphalia Treaty West European States System inner Asia Great Game nation-state 1 Tributary System, Adam Watson trial and error juridically equal Utrecht 1815 Adam Watson, European International Society and Its Expansion, in Hedley Bull and Adam Watson, eds., The Expansion of International Society (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1984), pp A.D-1914A.D

78 George Friedman

79 3-1 The CIA, /1/ ,

80 近代東亞體系 圖 3-2 中國歷史的主要區域 資料來源 The Wikipedia, /1/20 相對於廣袤的東亞大陸 面積約 250 萬平方公里的 東亞大島 核心區雖然 連接著東亞大陸和世界島 卻在地緣政治意涵上是座大島 核心區需要 草原之 舟 穿越泥濘不堪的滿州平原 Manchuria Plain 或大草原 Steppes 的戈壁沙 漠 騎乘 沙漠之舟 橫越以絲路聞名的西域 Desert and Oasis 高原之舟 用於青藏高原 Tibetan Plateau, 圖博高原 南詔高原和越南平原則被大江大河 與茂密的森林覆蓋 6就交通聯繫而言 核心區與其它區域最便捷的連絡似乎是 海上之舟 因此形成盤根錯節的南海貿易網絡 核心區無論朝向東南西北都 需藉助各種 舟 顯示東亞大島地緣的獨立性 然而 獨立性減損的是世界島 6 四川省 等 約當前中國統治面積的 1/4 強 這些省份也是人口密度最高的區域 這意 味著當前的中國核心區仍然是座大島 比對喬治 弗列德曼 未來一百年大預測 頁 119 的 中 國 難以穿越的地形 和頁 120 的 中國人口密度圖 就能理解地形 人口密度與東亞大島 的對應關係 人類可憑藉草原之舟 沙漠之舟與高原之舟穿越上述區域 但那些區域多半不適人居 人煙稀 少 資源不足以支持大規模的人類行動 唯一容許大批人馬通行的是當前中國與哈薩克的邊 界 但從歷史看來 這條通道也不甚便利 參見喬治 弗列德曼 未來一百年大預測 頁

81 John King Fairbank, The United States and China (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1971), pp Owen Lattimore Owen Lattimore, Inner Asia Frontiers of China (Boston: Beacon, 1940), Chapter 4 and 5 10 John King Fairbank, The United States and China 69

82 2, , Peter J. Woolley, Geography and Japan s Strategic Choice: From Seclusion to Internationalization (Washington, D.C.: Potomac Book, Inc, 2005), pp % 13 Peter J. Woolley, Geography and Japan s Strategic Choice, pp

83 The Wikipedia, /1/ Vladivostok

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85 Black Ship Peter J. Woolley, Geography and Japan s Strategic Choice, pp

86 Sibir, Albazin Achansk [ ] Ural Mountains Cossacks, Buriat Mongols Dzyngar 74

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89 Second British Empire 1760 Mughal Empire Malacca Nicholas Canny, The Origins of Empire, The Oxford History of the British Empire Volume I (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1998), p Andrew Porter, The Nineteenth Century, The Oxford History of the British Empire Volume III ( Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1998), pp Lawrence James, The Rise and Fall of the British Empire (London: Abacus, 1997), pp ; Frances V. Moulder, Japan, China, and the Modern World Economy: Toward a Reinterpretation of 77

90 George Macartney Smyrna East Asia Development, ca to ca (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1977), pp Battle of Plassey 33 Middle Kingdom Travis W. Hanes and Frank Sanello James Madison

91 William Pitt Amherst ,187 2,119 2,376, ,400 [ ]

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93 43 Fairbank, 1987: % Treaty of Bogue 5% 43 John King Fairbank, The Great Chinese Revolution , p His Majesty the Emperor of China agrees that British Subjects communication statement declaration perfect equality representation 81

94 John King Fairbank, The United States and China. 82

95 suzerain state tributary state

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118 1849 Punjab Tashkent Samarkand Bokhara Kokhand Yakub Beg watchful waiting Owen Lattimore, Pivot of Asia: Sinkiang and the Inner Asian Frontiers of China and Russia (Boston: Little, Brown and Company, 1950), pp

119

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122 Charles W. Le Gendre Peter J. Woolley, Geography and Japan s Strategic Choice, p Peter J. Woolley, Geography and Japan s Strategic Choice, p

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130 5-1 Max Boot, War Made New: Technology, Warfare, and the Course of History, 1500 to Today (New York: Penguin Group Inc, 2006), p Nicholas Spykman, America s Strategy in World Politics: the United States and the Balance of Power (New York: Harcourt, Brace and Company), pp

131 7 8 Grand White Fleet % 7 Akira Iriye, Across the Pacific: An Inner History of American-East Asian Relations (Chicago: Imprint Publications, Inc, 1992), pp Robert A. Hart, The Great White Fleet: Its Voyage Around the World, (Boston: Little, Brown and Company, 1965) 119

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133 Peter J. Woolley, Geography and Japan s Strategic Choice: From Seclusion to Internationalization. (Washington, D.C.: Potomac Book, Inc, 2005), pp

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135 ( 1966) David Mackenzie and Michael W. Curran David Mackenzie and Michael W. Curran David Mackenzie and Michael W. Curran

136 24 40% % % 75% 60% Geoffrey Parker, The Cambridge Illustrated History of Warfare, p (Basil H. Liddell-Hart) ( 1995 )

137 50-70% 4/5 2/ Hull Note ABCD America, British, China, and Dutch / ( 1990 ) ABCD ABD Akira Iriye, The Origins of the Second World War in Asia and the Pacific (Essex: Longman Group, 1987), pp

138 1990 String of Pearls United States Joint Forces Command, The Joint Operating Environment, 2008 (Suffolk: United States Joint Forces Command Center for Joint Futures, 2008), p

139 5-3 United States Joint Forces Command, The Joint Operating Environment, 2008, p Orange Plan Wake Midway Guam 1 3 Northern Mariana Island Saipan Naval Plan Division 127

140 Nicholas Spykman, American s Strategy in World Politics: The United States and the Balance of Power (New York: Harcourt, Brace and Company, 1942), p

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146 Potsdam Declaration unconditional surrender Robyn Lim, The Geopolitics of East Asia: The Search for Equilibrium (New York: Routledge, 2003), pp Pax Americana Torbjørn L. Knutsen, The Rise and Fall of World Orders (New York: Manchester University Press, 1999), pp

147 Dean Acheson 10 6 R. W. Davies, Soviet Economic Development from Lenin to Khrushchev (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998), pp W. Averell Harriman and Elie Abel, Special Envoy to Churchill and Stalin, (New York: Random House, 1975), p William Stueck, The Korean War: An International History (Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press, 1995), pp Formosa 135

148 containment , Øystein Tunsjø, US Taiwan Policy: Constructing the Triangle (New York: Routledge, 2008), p. 42 pp

149 6-1 Wikipedia, :USN_Fleets_(2009).png 2010/1/ William Stueck, The Korean War: An International History, pp William Stueck, The Korean War: An International History, pp Geoffrey Parker, The Cambridge Illustrated History of Warfare (Cambridge: Cambridge University 137

150 Press, 1995), pp William Stueck, The Korean War: An International History, pp Robyn Lim, The Geopolitics of East Asia: The Search for Equilibrium, pp

151 National Security Council Report 68, NSC Paul Nitze John P. Davies Chip Bohlen S. Nelson Drewed, NSC-68: Forging the Strategy of Containment, with Analyses by Paul H. Nitze (Washington, D.C.: National Defense University, 1994), p

152 18 18 General Headquarters, GHQ 140

153 European Recovery Program, Marshall Plan George Kennan Michael J. Hogan, America, Britain, and the Reconstruction of Western Europe, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1987); Eliot Sorel, and Pier Cario Padoan, eds. The Marshall Plan: Lessons Learned for the 21 st Century (Paris: OECD Publishing, 2008) X Foreign Affairs X (George F. Kennan), The Sources of Soviet Conduct, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 25, No. 4. July 1947, pp Geoffrey Parker, The Cambridge Illustrated History of Warfare, p

154 % % % % P. W. Preston, Understanding Modern Japan: A Political Economy of Development, Culture and Global Power (London: Sage Publications, 2000), pp P. W. Preston, Understanding Modern Japan, pp Alice H. Amsden, The State and Taiwan s Economic Development, in Evans and et al. eds, Bringing the State Back In (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1985), pp

155 % % Jae-Yong Chung and Richard J. R. Kirkby, The Political Economy of Development and Environment in Korea (New York: Routledge, 2002), pp NIEs

156 % % % % 39% % / (%) /1/20 144

157 /1/ / (%) /1/

158 George Friedman Christina Holmes, The Soviet Union and China, in Segal Gerald ed, The Soviet Union in East Asia (London: Heinemann, 1983), pp

159 Robyn Lim, The Geopolitics of East Asia: The Search for Equilibrium, pp

160 Henry Kissinger Robyn Lim, The Geopolitics of East Asia: The Search for Equilibrium, p David Mackenzie and Michael W. Curran

161 Reagan Doctrine Strategic Defense Initiative, Gorbachev Sinatra Doctrine David Mackenzie and Michael W. Curran William Maley, The Afghanistan War (New York: Palgrave MacMillan, 2002), pp Robyn Lim, The Geopolitics of East Asia: The Search for Equilibrium, p David Mackenzie and Michael W. Curran

162 Shahid Yusuf and et al, China and India Reshape Global Industrial Geography, in L. Alan Winters and Shahid Yusuf, eds. Dancing with Giants: China, India, and the Global Economy (Singapore: Institute of Policy Studies, 2007), pp BBC 150

163 2009 GDP The Economist, /1/ /1/20 151

164 First Island Chain United State Department of Defend (DoD), Annual Report to Congress: Military Power of the People s Republic of China, 2006, p Annual Report to Congress: Military Power of the People s Republic of China 10% 152

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176 3 3C 4 3 Martin Alborw Anthony Giddens Emanuel Richter Robert Cox Jan Aart Scholte, The Globalization of World Politics, in John Baylis and Steve Smith, eds., The Globalization of World Politics: An Introduction to International Relations (New York: Oxford University Press, 1997), pp (Thomas L. Friedman) 164

177 Internet (flows) 5 6 time-space compression 7 antithetical (Thomas L. Friedman) ( 2000 ) 5 (neo-liberalism) 6 David Held and Anthony G. McGrew, Globalization/Anti-Globalization (Malden, MA: Blackwell Publishers Ltd., 2002), p ( ) ( ) (Joseph E. Stiglitz) ( 2002 ) 165

178 David Held and Anthony McGrew, Introduction, in David Held and Anthony McGrew, eds, Governing Globalization (Malden: Polity Press, 2002), p Robert D. Kaplan, The Revenge of Geography, Foreign Policy, May/June 2009, pp

179 [ ] International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Database: Data for the Year United State Department of Defend (DoD) Annual Report to Congress: Military Power of the People s Republic of China, United State Department of Defend (DoD) Annual Report to Congress: Military Power of the People s Republic of China, United States Joint Forces Command The Joint Operating Environment, Suffolk: United States Joint Forces Command Center for Joint Futures. United States National Security Council, NSC-67, World Bank World Development Indicators Database: Data for the Year [ ] 1987 David Mackenzie and Michael W. Curran Joseph E. Stiglitz 2002 Globalization and Its Discontents

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