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1 電子書的發展與服務趨勢陳昭珍國立臺灣師範大學圖書資訊學研究所教授兼圖書館館長

2 大綱電子書發展趨勢預測電子書出版銷售實況調查教育環境重要發展趨勢及面臨的挑戰資訊科技在教育環境重要之應用

3 2011 年電子書重要發展趨勢 Five ebook Trends that Will Change the Future of Publishing Are ebooks the Future of the Book Market? Six Predictions for 2011 ebook Trends to Watch for in 2011: Are ebooks Coming of Age? epublishing Predictions for 2011: ebooks Meet Self- Publishing The Future of ebooks Online in 2011: Trends and Predictions for the Publishing Industry

4 5 E-Book Trends That Will Change the Future of Publishing 改變出版未來的五個電子書發展趨勢 Enhanced E-Books 來臨, 且會越來越好閱讀器大戰即將結束電子書不會都只要 $9.99 元情境式銷售模式正夯出版者將比以前更重要

5 Are ebooks the Future of the Book Market? Six Predictions for 年有關電子書的六個預測整合行銷 Bundled Books 推薦閱讀 Social Reading 電子書俱樂部 e-book Clubs 電子書先行 e-first Publishing 免費閱讀器 Free e-readers 貨幣試驗 Monetization Experiments Thomas Nelson Publishers CEO Michael Hyatt

6 ebook Trends to Watch for in 2011: Are ebooks Coming of Age? 2011 年電子書發展趨勢整合行銷 Bundling Books 更多出版社發行電子書 More Publisher Released ebooks 免費閱讀器 Free e-readers 閱讀器更便宜 Lower Priced e-readers 電子書更便宜 Lower priced ebooks 廣告與行銷 Advertising and Marketing 獨立出版者增加 Increase in Indie epublishers 社會性閱讀團體及電子書俱樂部 Social Reading Groups and Book Clubs Suzanne Fyhrie Parrott

7 epublishing Predictions for 2011: ebooks Meet Self-Publishing 當電子書遇到自行出版當電子書遇到自行出版 Smashwords founder Mark Coker 電子書銷售增加, 但單價便宜 Agents 寫下電子書革命的下一章 ( 讓作者不透過傳統出版社出版 ) 很多大作家不願意分數位版權六大出版社提高電子書版稅電子書價格下降顧客是王, 出版社的顧客是讀者電子書國際市場擴大, 出版社重新思考領域權限發現力熱門 Discoverability becomes HOT 六大出版社拒絕放棄 DRM, 並仍不信任顧客 Big 6 publishers refuse to abandon DRM, Continue to Mistrust Customers

8 The Future of ebooks Online in 2011: Trends and Predictions for the Publishing Industry 未來出版市場預測適宜自行出版行銷的六個理由 6 Reasons 2011 Is the Perfect Year to Write and Sell Ebooks Online Ebooks Outselling Hardcovers : Amazon 2010 電子書銷售首度多於紙本書 140:100 Ebooks Getting Their Own Bestseller List : 2010 The New York Times 起每週三刊出暢銷電子書排行榜 Exploding Sales :2011 美國消費者預計花十億美元改電子書,2015 年將達三十億美元 Free to Publish : 在 Amazon 出書不需要申請 ISBN, 出版完全免費 No Need for Traditional Publishers : 完全不需傳統出版者 You Can Make a Helluva Lot of Money Selling Ebooks Inkwell Editorial

9 大綱電子書發展趨勢預測電子書出版銷售實況調查教育環境重要發展趨勢及面臨的挑戰資訊科技在教育環境重要之應用

10 Assessing the Latest Impact of ebooks on the Publishing Market (Aptara.com Dec. 2010) 貴公司目前是否有生產或發行電子書? Trade STM Collage K-12 B2B yes 74% 72% 64% 78% 57% no 25% 28% 35% 22% 43% Not sure 1% 0% 1% 0% 0%

11 Assessing the Latest Impact of ebooks on the Publishing Market (Aptara.com Dec. 2010) 電子書對貴公司發展策略與成長計畫之重要性為何 Trade STM Collage K-12 B2B high 55% 52% 50% 46% 39% Moderate 28% 33% 27% 39% 24% low 9% 9% 11% 10% 24% unsure 7% 7% 12% 4% 13% Undefined 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%

12 Assessing the Latest Impact of ebooks on the Publishing Market (Aptara.com Dec. 2010) 貴公司的書以電子書形式出版之百分比 Trade STM Collage K-12 B2B 0 25% 25% 22% 27% 36% 30% 26 50% 9% 12% 7% 18% 9% 51 75% 8% 9% 12% 4% 6% % 31% 29% 16% 19% 19% Unsure 5% 4% 6% 7% 7% Undefined 24% 25% 32% 15% 30%

13 Assessing the Latest Impact of ebooks on the Publishing Market (Aptara.com Dec. 2010) 貴公司未出版及發行電子書的原因為何 ( 前面選擇 no 者 ) Trade STM Collage K-12 B2B No customer demand/requirement 6% 12% 17% 7% 22% ereader/content format/compatibility issues 8% 9% 9% 9% 4% Return on investment (ROI) concerns 8% 8% 9% 9% 2% Distribution channel issues 6% 7% 5% 7% 4% Concern over protecting digital rights 6% 9% 7% 7% 2% Cost of overall ebook production 5% 5% 6% 7% 4% Complexity of pricing models 2% 5% 4% 9% 2% Lack of source rights to publish in new formats Perceived quality of the converted content 3% 4% 3% 4% 0% 5% 2% 2% 1% 2% Undefined 78% 75% 73% 82% 61%

14 Assessing the Latest Impact of ebooks on the Publishing Market (Aptara.com Dec. 2010) 出版電子書的主要趨動力為何? Trade STM Collage K-12 B2B New revenue stream 53% 50% 41% 58% 37% Seeking a new market/audience 53% 36% 36% 45% 31% Customer demand 39% 39% 35% 45% 37% Announcements by competitors 16% 11% 14% 21% 9% Other 6% 6% 7% 3% 11% Unsure 0% 2% 4% 3% 4% Undefined 19% 27% 35% 16% 33%

15 Assessing the Latest Impact of ebooks on the Publishing Market (Aptara.com Dec. 2010) 電子書出版之投資報酬率為何? Trade STM Collage K-12 B2B Better than printed books 15% 14% 9% 10% 15% Same as printed books 6% 5% 3% 1% 4% undefined 18% 25% 32% 13% 31% Don't know yet 40% 34% 33% 45% 35% Unsure 8% 10% 11% 10% 6% Worse than printed books 13% 12% 13% 19% 9%

16 Assessing the Latest Impact of ebooks on the Publishing Market (Aptara.com Dec. 2010) 您的電子書可在那一種設備上閱讀? Trade STM Collage K-12 B2B PC 62% 60% 54% 73% 57% Mac 55% 47% 47% 57% 46% Amazon Kindle 51% 37% 33% 45% 22% Apple ipad 50% 35% 32% 33% 30% Apple iphone 51% 32% 32% 39% 30% Sony Reader 47% 28% 29% 36% 24% Other 43% 26% 27% 30% 31% B&N Nook 42% 21% 23% 27% 19% Unsure 9% 7% 11% 10% 9% Undefined 23% 27% 35% 16% 30%

17 Assessing the Latest Impact of ebooks on the Publishing Market (Aptara.com Dec. 2010) 透過何種管道行銷電子書 Trade STM Collage K-12 B2B Our own ecommerce site 44% 47% 39% 46% 44% Amazon.com 53% 38% 34% 42% 22% Other 47% 40% 39% 43% 37% Apple itunes 38% 21% 12% 13% 19% Small or independent book sellers 19% 14% 17% 18% 15% Unsure 6% 4% 7% 7% 2% Undefined 23% 25% 34% 18% 31%

18 Assessing the Latest Impact of ebooks on the Publishing Market (Aptara.com Dec. 2010) 電子書的格式電子書原始檔格式?

19 Assessing the Latest Impact of ebooks on the Publishing Market (Aptara.com Dec. 2010) 面臨的挑戰為何? ereader/content format/compatibility issues Trade STM Collage K-12 B2B 55% 46% 47% 49% 31% Distribution channel issues 44% 40% 34% 36% 26% Digital Rights Management (DRM) 23% 31% 35% 43% 20% Cost of overall ebook production 25% 21% 27% 22% 22% Quality of the converted content 26% 20% 27% 24% 22% Cost of backlist conversion 20% 19% 22% 16% 17% Other 5% 7% 6% 12% 2% unsure 8% 7% 11% 7% 11% Undefined 5% 9% 9% 7% 13%

20 Assessing the Latest Impact of ebooks on the Publishing Market (Aptara.com Dec. 2010) Enhanced ebooks Trade STM Collage K-12 B2B Still investigating 28% 36% 29% 45% 31% No plans at this time 15% 9% 12% 9% 13% Planning to once EPUB standard supports enhanced ebooks Already producing them via iphone apps Planning to once ereaders become more prevalent 15% 11% 9% 12% 9% 10% 7% 3% 4% 0% 4% 5% 4% 1% 6% Unsure 6% 7% 9% 9% 7% Undefined 22% 26% 34% 19% 33%

21 大綱電子書發展趨勢預測電子書出版銷售實況調查教育環境重要發展趨勢及面臨的挑戰資訊科技在教育環境重要之應用

22 The Horizon Report EDUCAUSE Learning Initiative (ELI) and the New Media Consortium 四個重要發展趨勢網路資訊越來越多且易於取用, 教育者角色將重新定位人們期望可在任何地方任何時間行動式工作任何時間行動式工作學習學習研究這個世界的合作越來越多雲端科技越來越重要, 我們的 IT 支援都是分散式的主要的挑戰對每一領域及專業而言, 數位媒體素養都是重要技能面對新的學術創作出版及研究形式的出現, 需要更適切的評鑑方式經濟壓力及新教育模式是大學傳統模式的競爭者師生面對多元及快速發展之資訊軟體軟體工具工具載具之挑戰

23 大綱電子書發展趨勢預測電子書出版銷售實況調查教育環境重要發展趨勢及面臨的挑戰資訊科技在教育環境之應用

24 The Horizon Report 2011 三個將在教育學習及探索被採用的重要科技 On the near-term horizon that is, within the next 12 months are electronic books and mobiles The second adoption horizon considers technologies expected to gain widespread usage within two to three years, and this year s candidates are augmented reality and gamebased learning. Looking to the far-term horizon, four to five years from now for widespread adoption, are gesturebased computing and learning analytics.

25 圖書館的電子書服務電子書會成為圖書館重要的館藏圖書館出借電子書閱讀器圖書館如何購買及出借電子書 Open Library Harper Collins ( 限流通 26 次 ) and Overdrive Kindle Library Lending ( 與 Overdrive 合作 ) Patron driven acquisition: 如 Ebook Library (EBL) 不用付錢給 EBL, 直到該書被借了三次採購什麼格式的電子書聯盟採購 vs. 個自採購圖書館如何典藏電子書圖書館與大學出版

26 Thank you Welcome any Comments

3. 文创领域中剧本创作不应再是一个人的事情, 而应该是一个团队从今年开始, 广电总局将组织实施剧本精品创作工程, 设立优秀剧本奖励基金, 着力扶持优秀剧本项目每年拿

3. 文创领域中剧本创作不应再是一个人的事情, 而应该是一个团队从今年开始, 广电总局将组织实施剧本精品创作工程, 设立优秀剧本奖励基金, 着力扶持优秀剧本项目每年拿学者一周观察 1. 国家十二五时期文化改革发展规划纲要抓住了未来几年文化产业发展的核心环节与基本态势向勇简介国家十二五时期文化改革发展规划纲要于 2 月 15 日正式公布国家十二五时期文化改革发展规划纲要的内容是十七