Russia is the main immigrant recipient on the territory of CIS 俄罗斯是独联体境内的主要移民收件人 World leaders by the number of labor immigrants in 2012, million peop

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Russia is the main immigrant recipient on the territory of CIS 俄罗斯是独联体境内的主要移民收件人 World leaders by the number of labor immigrants in 2012, million peop"

四谒范
5 years ago
Views:

1 Migration Trends in the Russian Federation 在俄罗斯联邦的移民趋势 Dmitry Sanatov, Head of research project team, Foundation Center for Strategic Research «North-West» Economic Policy Dialogue among think tanks of emerging economies (Hainan, China) November

2 Russia is the main immigrant recipient on the territory of CIS 俄罗斯是独联体境内的主要移民收件人 World leaders by the number of labor immigrants in 2012, million people ,8 7,4 7,3 6,5 6,5 9,8 9,1 7,8 7,8 11 mln USA США Russia РФ Germany Германия Saudi Arabia Саудовская Аравия UAE ОАЭ Great Britain Великобритания France Франция Canada Канада Australia Австралия Spain Number of RF labor immigrants who have legal permission for work, thousand people The whole number of labor immigrants in 2012 was 15,88 mln people Source: Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs Source: Federal Migration Service 5

3 Main features of migration processes in Russia: 1. Russia completed its urban process later than other industrial countries. Urban population in Russia is steadily growing. It s likely to decline only after 俄罗斯的迁移过程中的主要特点 : 1 俄罗斯完成了城市的过程比其他工业国家在俄罗斯城市的人口稳步增长这是 2030 年后可能只会下降 In share of urban population in Russia stabilized at 73% level 74,2 75,5 76,3 72,1 80,6 94, ,4 103,8 104,4 104, ,3 61,1 57,6 56,1 49,3 42,5 39,1 38,7 36,3 38,2 37,2 36,6 37 9,9 15,7 15,5 16, Million people Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service 2

4 Main features of migration processes in Russia: 2. Russia, as well as other countries, has overcome two demographic transitions. 俄罗斯的迁移过程中的主要特点 : 2 俄罗斯以及其他国家已经克服了两个人口转变 Average marriage age is 25 years and over Male Female Average maternity age is years Informal birth rate Number of births per 1000 women Number of informal births Share of informal births до и более Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service 4

5 Main features of migration processes in Russia: 3. Industrial urbanization in Russia during last Soviet period has lead to the creation of a settlement system, where mono-cities network is a core component 俄罗斯的迁移过程中的主要特点 : 3 单城市的网络的核心组成部分 The most number of mono- cihes in Russia have Number of mono- cihes in Russian federal districts specializahon in metallurgy, industrial engineering, raw materials Far East Central region 8% 4% 3% 23% 66 Siberian 44 Ural North- West Southern region 6 6 North Caucasus 10% 11% 19% 22% Average distances between cizes: Western Siberia 114 km Far East Privoghsky region Metallurgy Transport and equipment produczon Power generazon, produczon and distribuzon of water and gaz ExtracZon of raw materials Chemical produczon Paper and wood produczon Other nonmetallurgy materials produczon Others 3

6 Current migration issues in Russia: 1. West transit and pressure on agglomerations 在俄罗斯目前的迁移问题 : 1 西过境和压力群 Demography and employment structure in the Leningrad region in 2012, million people 1,75 0,98 The Leningrad region doesn t receive taxes of more than 150 thousand people working in St. Petersburg Income tax distribution between regional and local budget Regional budget Local budget 0,37 0,15 40% 60% Population number Economically active population Number of working places Number of people working in St. Petersburg Moscow agglomeration St. Petersburg agglomeration from Moscow to the Moscow region from the Moscow region to Moscow from St. Petersburg to the Leningrad region from the Leningrad region to St. Petersburg s 2000-s s 6

7 Current migration issues in Russia: 2. In some cases uncontrolled migration became a source of ethnic and other conflicts 在俄罗斯目前的迁移问题 : 2 在某些情况下, 不受控制的迁移已经成为一个民族和其他冲突源 Average RF immigrant portrait Number of offences in Russia, conducted by foreigners, Women 10% 26% years Christianity 13% 9834 the Moscow region Moscow Men 90% 74% 85% years Moslem St. Petersburg other regions 0 Sex Age Religion 7

8 Current migration issues in Russia: 3. Migration leads to strengthen social segregation. This could further lead to creation of special migration ghetto zones 在俄罗斯目前的迁移问题 : 3 迁移导致加强社会隔离这可能进一步导致创造特殊迁移贫民窟区 Average RF labor immigrants monthly wages, 2012 Amounts of money, sent by RF labor immigrants to native countries per month, % 75% 15% 11% 15% 10% under $700 under $1000 over $1000 under $500 under $800 under $1000 8

9 Current migration issues in Russia: 4. There is a gap between educational and cultural level of native Russians and immigrants 在俄罗斯目前的迁移问题 : 4 有一个教育和文化层面, 俄罗斯本地人和移民之间的差距 RF immigration structure, % Educational level of Russians and immigrants, % ,3 19,4 24,1 39,2 Republic of Kazakhstan Middle Asia Caucasus European countries Higher educahon PopulaZon of the RF Labor immigrants 14, 3 23, 1 Professional secondary educahon 9

10 Migration calls to Russia 迁移呼吁俄罗斯 1. Risk of brain drain and achve youth migrahon to other countries while there is process of low qualified immigrahon 人才外流和活跃的青年移民到其它国家的风险, 同时有低资质的移民过程 2. AdaptaHon to the changes of ethnical and religious populahon structure 适应民族和宗教人口结构的变化 3. CompeHHon with foreign cihes for labor force 与国外城市劳动力的竞争 4. New agenda for mono- cihes (shmulate to relocate populahon from places where it is impossible to create new jobs) 单城市的新议程 ( 刺激人口迁往地方是不可能创造新的就业机会 ) 5. New tax policy for agglomerahons 新的税收政策群

11 Foundation Center for Strategic Research North-West independent think tank Thank you for your attention! Address: 26 line, VI, A, St.Petersburg, Russia, Phone (fax): , E- mail: nw.ru Materials are available at nw.ru 13

~ 10 2 P Y i t = my i t W Y i t 1000 PY i t Y t i W Y i t t i m Y i t t i 15 ~ 49 1 Y Y Y 15 ~ j j t j t = j P i t i = 15 P n i t n Y

~ 10 2 P Y i t = my i t W Y i t 1000 PY i t Y t i W Y i t t i m Y i t t i 15 ~ 49 1 Y Y Y 15 ~ j j t j t = j P i t i = 15 P n i t n Y * 35 4 2011 7 Vol. 35 No. 4 July 2011 3 Population Research 1950 ~ 1981 The Estimation Method and Its Application of Cohort Age - specific Fertility Rates Wang Gongzhou Hu Yaoling Abstract Based on the