EASING POLICIES EXCEEDED MARKET EXPECTATIONS IN FIRST QUARTER During Q1, the luxury residential market saw 1, sqm of new supply, a similar level compa

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1 RESEARCH 研究报告 SHANGHAI LUXURY RESIDENTIAL MARKET REPORT Q1 215 上海豪宅市场报告 215 第一季度

2 EASING POLICIES EXCEEDED MARKET EXPECTATIONS IN FIRST QUARTER During Q1, the luxury residential market saw 1, sqm of new supply, a similar level compared with a year ago. New luxury projects in the downtown market all recorded excellent sales results in Q1. The government launched several stimulus policies exceeding market expectations during the first quarter (Q1) of 215 to deal with the risks caused by a large amount of inventory in the residential market. These included lowering the down-payment ratio on second homes from 6% to 4% and shortening the time requirement for housing business tax exemption from five years to two years. In February, the Central Bank lowered the standard interest rate for the second time in half a year. The relaxation measures incited buyers to change their wait-andsee attitude and return to the market. Policies on the residential market are expected to be significantly relaxed in 215 for buyers with end-user and upgrading demand. Joffre Classic located on Huaihai West Road launched 37 new luxury apartments, providing 11, sqm in Q1. This was one of the few new luxury residential projects in the area. In Q2, Daning Jinmao Palace will begin the initial sales of the luxury flats in Zhabei District. This will be the fifth Jinmao Palace project of Franshion Properties in China. In Q2, demand for luxury residential properties is expected to increase. The average price of luxury residences is set to increase 2-3%. It is expected to rise 8% over the coming year with the market welcoming another round of hikes in both prices and transaction volumes. TABLE 1 Shanghai luxury residential sales market indicators Indicator Q1 215 figure QoQ change Outlook (Q2 215) New supply 18,76 sqm 26.2% Sold area 6,53 sqm 37.9% Price RMB 78,177 / sqm 3.7% Yield 2.8% Source: Knight Frank Research 2

3 SHANGHAI LUXURY RESIDENTIAL MARKET REPORT Q1 215 RESEARCH SALES PRICES As credit policies continued to ease, the luxury residential market grew stronger. In Q1, homebuyers with end-user and upgrading demand returned to the market, pushing up the average price by 3.7% to RMB78,177 per sqm In Q1, government incentives pushed up prices in both the downtown and emerging luxury residential areas. The downtown and the Xuhui Riverside area submarkets were very active during Q1. The average transaction price in downtown rose 5.3% year on year to reach RMB91,259 per sqm. The average transaction price in the Xuhui Riverside area also rose 2.1% to RMB79,368 per sqm. Being one of the few luxury villa transactions in the downtown area, a 283-sqm villa in Jing an s City Castle, a luxury residential community, was sold for RMB137,937 per sqm in Q1. At the end of March, eased business tax threshold enrouraged owners to raise prices in the secondary home market. This is expected to inevitably push up the sales prices of primary luxury residential properties. FIGURE 1 Luxury apartment price by district, Q1/215 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, RMB per sqm Huangpu Jing'an Changning Xuhui Pudong Zhabei Minhang Source: Knight Frank Research TABLE 2 Major luxury apartment sales transactions, Q1 215 District Building Zone Area (sqm) Price (RMB million) Unit price (RMB/sqm) Huangpu The Paragon High zone ,63 Pudong Shanghai Arch Low zone ,47 Xuhui Shanghai Bay High zone ,8 Jing an Grand Summit Low zone ,173 Zhabei Suhe Creek High zone ,118 Changning Joffre Classic Low zone ,824 Minhang One Park High zone ,783 Source: Shanghai Real Estate Trading Centre / Knight Frank Research Note: all transactions are subject to confirmation. TABLE 3 Major luxury villa sales transactions, Q1 215 District Building Villa Area (sqm) Price (RMB million) Unit price (RMB/sqm) Pudong Dongjiao Villas ,347 Jing an City Castle ,937 Pudong Mandarin Palace ,555 Songjiang Mandala Garden ,567 Minhang Firenze Villa ,24 Pudong Dahua Graceful Oasis Source: : Shanghai Real Estate Trading Centre / Knight Frank Research Note: all transactions are subject to confirmation ,5 3

4 SUPPLY AND DEMAND In Q1, 18,76 sqm of new supply was added to Shanghai s luxury residential market. The majority of the supply was launched in downtown, easing the shortage. Over Q1, primary luxury residential sales volume fell 37.9% quarter-on-quarter to 6,53 sqm during the traditional Spring Festival holiday season. However, relaxed policies helped restore confidence among homebuyers. We expect the luxury transaction volume in the second quarter will surge by approximately 8% year on year. FIGURE 2 Luxury residential sales volume and average price index, Q1/28 to Q1/ ' sqm Sales volume of new luxury housing (left) Luxury housing price index (right) Q1 26= Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Source: Shanghai Real Estate Trading Centre / Knight Frank Research LAND MARKET During Q1, sales in Shanghai s land market became less active. In total, 12 plots for residential use were sold, 15 less than Q Real estate companies sales results in 214 did not meet expectations. Over Q1 215, developers became more cautious in land acquisition, so land premium rates were not high. During the quarter, China Resources Real Estate joined Huafa Industrial Co. Limited to acquire a mixed residential and commercial plot in Zhabei s Shibei Hi-tech Park for RMB7.5 billion, with a 16.2% premium. The land price based on gross floor area reached RMB34,871 per sqm, making it the most expensive plot sold in the quarter. TABLE 4 Major residential land transactions, Q1 215 District Zhabei Jiading Plot Plot 1-3, N751, Shibei Hi-Tech Park Plot 43-7, Juyuan New Area Land area (sqm) 76,135 Buyer China Resources / Huafa Industrial Total Value (RMB million) Unit price (RMB/sqm) 7,52 34,871 77,578 Green Land 1,71 11,22 Source: Shanghai Planning and Land Authority Bureau / Knight Frank Research 4

5 上海写字楼豪宅市场报告 215 第一季度研究报告第一季度楼市宽松政策力度超出市场预期第一季度, 豪宅市场新增供应约为 1 万平方米, 与 214 年同期相比基本持平新推出的市中心豪宅项目在第一季度录得不错的销售业绩面对可能存在的高库存风险, 政府在第一季度又出台多项刺激需求的购房税收政策二套房首付比例由之前的 6% 降至 4%, 普通住房营业税免征由满 5 年减至满 2 年等政策的力度均超出市场预期 2 月份, 央行在半年内再度下调存贷款基准利率, 信贷放松促成潜在购房者放弃之前观望心态, 积极入场对于刚性需求以及改善需求的购房者而言,215 年政策将十分宽松 37 套高档公寓, 共计 11, 平方米这是淮海西路区域为数不多的新推豪宅项目之一展望第二季度, 闸北区的豪宅项目大宁金茂府计划开盘销售, 这将是方兴地产在全国的第五座金茂府第二季度, 豪宅市场的购买需求将进一步得到释放预计豪宅平均售价将有 2-3% 的涨幅, 而未来一年豪宅价格或将实现 8% 左右的涨幅, 上海豪宅市场将迎来新一轮量价齐升的走势淮海西路的淮海名邸在第一季度推出表一上海豪宅销售市场参考指标指标 215 年第一季度数字按季变幅预测 (215 年第二季度 ) 新增供应 18,76 平方米 26.2% 销售面积 6,53 平方米 37.9% 价格人民币 78,177 元 / 平方米 3.7% 回报率 2.8% 资料来源 : 莱坊研究部 5

6 销售价格信贷政策持续宽松化, 带动豪宅市场走强刚性自住客以及改善性购房者积极入市, 将第一季度豪宅平均售价推高至每平方米人民币 78,177 元, 环比上涨 3.7% 新政的激励作用促成了第一季度市中心以及新兴高档住宅区域价格的上升市中心以及徐汇滨江一季度表现活跃, 平均成交价格分别达每平方米人民币 91,259 元以及 79,368 元, 与 214 年同期相比分别上涨 5.3% 和 2.1% 第一季度, 位于静安区的高端项目远中风华园成交一套 283 平方米的别墅, 成交价格达每平方米人民币 137,937 元, 是中心区域内较为少见的别墅成交 3 月下旬, 营业税征收放松推动二手市场业主纷纷提价, 预计对一手豪宅市场售价也将产生影响, 价格上涨将不可避免图一各区一手高档公寓平均售价,215 年第一季度 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 人民币元 / 平方米资料来源 : 莱坊研究部黄浦静安长宁徐汇浦东闸北闵行表二豪宅销售成交举例,215 年第一季度区域项目楼层面积 ( 平方米 ) 售价 ( 百万元人民币 ) 单价 ( 人民币 / 平方米 ) 黄浦茂名公馆高区 ,63 浦东凯旋滨江园低区 ,47 徐汇尚海湾豪庭高区 ,8 静安嘉天汇御苑低区 ,173 闸北苏河湾华侨城高区 ,118 长宁淮海名邸低区 ,824 闵行虹桥尚嘉苑高区 ,783 资料来源 : 上海房地产交易中心 / 莱坊研究部注 : 所有成交均有待落实表三高档别墅销售成交举例,215 年第一季度区域项目别墅面积 ( 平方米 ) 售价 ( 百万元人民币 ) 单价 ( 人民币 / 平方米 ) 浦东东郊花园 ,347 静安远中风华园 ,937 浦东九间堂别墅 ,555 松江中凯曼荼园 ,567 闵行翡冷翠园 ,24 浦东大华锦绣华城 ,5 资料来源 : 上海房地产交易中心 / 莱坊研究部注 : 所有成交均有待落实 6

7 上海写字楼豪宅市场报告 215 第一季度研究报告供应与需求第一季度上海豪宅市场新增供应面积为 18,76 平方米, 主要集中在市区, 缓解市中心供应紧绌的局面受传统春节假期的影响, 第一季度豪宅交易量环比下降 37.9%, 成交量为 6,53 平方米但央行降息和三月底贷款政策的宽松使得市场内购房者信心开始恢复我们预计第二季度的豪宅交易量将同比大涨约 8% 图二一手豪宅成交量与售价指数,28 年第一季度至 215 年第一季度千平方米一手豪宅成交量 ( 左轴 ) 豪宅价格指数 ( 右轴 ) Q1 26= Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q 资料来源 : 上海房地产交易中心 / 莱坊研究部土地市场第一季度, 上海土地市场表现较为平静, 共成交住宅用地 12 宗, 与 214 年同期相比减少了 15 宗房企 214 年度的销售额并不尽如人意, 第一季度土地市场开发商拿地趋于谨慎, 地价溢价率普遍不高华润地产及华发股份在第一季度以人民币 7.52 亿元联合摘得闸北区市北高新服务业园区一商住地块, 溢价 16.2%, 楼板价达到每平方米人民币 34,8 7 1 元, 成为一季度土地总价最高的地块表二主要住宅用地成交,215 年第一季度区域闸北嘉定地块名称市北高新技术服务业园区 N751 单元 1-3 地块嘉定区菊园新区 43-7 地块面积 ( 平方米 ) 76,135 买家华润地产 / 华发股份资料来源 : 上海规划和国土资源管理局 / 莱坊研究部总成交金额 ( 亿元人民币 ) 楼面价 ( 人民币 / 平方米 ) ,871 77,578 绿地地产 ,22 7

8 GLOBAL BRIEFING For the latest news, views and analysis on the world of prime property, visit KnightFrankblog.com/global-briefing RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY 研究及咨询部 David Ji 纪言迅 Director, Head of Research & Consultancy, Greater China 董事及大中华区研究及咨询部主管 Regina Yang 杨悦晨 Director, Head of Research & Consultancy, Shanghai 董事及上海研究及咨询部主管 Knight Frank Research provides strategic advice, consultancy services and forecasting to a wide range of clients worldwide, including developers and investors, as well as financial and corporate institutions. All recognise the need for the provision of expert independent advice, customised to their specific needs. 莱坊研究团队向众多商业和住宅物业客户, 包括发展商投资者金融机构和企业机构提供策略性建议市场预测和顾问服务客户均认为我们按其特定需要提供的专业和独立意见能切合他们的需要 RECENT MARKET-LEADING RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS 近期市场研究报告 Stephanie Sun 孙文静 Director, Head of Research & Consultancy, Beijing 董事及北京研究及咨询部主管 stephanie.sun@cn.knightfrank.com Ocean Ruan 阮洋 Manager, Research & Valuation, Guangzhou 广州研究及估价部经理 ocean.ruan@cn.knightfrank.com Pamela Tsui 崔佩贤 Senior Manager, Research & Consultancy, Greater China 大中华区研究及咨询部高级经理 pamela.tsui@hk.knightfrank.com Wealth Report 215 Global Cities The 215 Report Greater China Hotel Report 214 China Retail Property Market Watch 2H 214 Cliff So 苏锐强 Executive Director, Agency & Professional Advisory Services, REPro Knight Frank, Taipei 台北瑞普莱坊物业代理及咨询部副总经理 cliff.so@repro.knightfrank.com Knight Frank Research Reports are available at 浏览莱坊的全球研究报告, 请登入 KnightFrank.com/Research Follow us on Wechat 关注莱坊微信帐号 Scan the QR code and tune in to the latest property insights and research from Knight Frank. 扫描二维码, 即时了解更多房产资讯及莱坊研究报告 Knight Frank 莱坊 215 This document and the material contained in it is general information only and is subject to change without notice. All images are for illustration only. No representations or warranties of any nature whatsoever are given, intended or implied. Knight Frank will not be liable for negligence, or for any direct or indirect consequential losses or damages arising from the use of this information. You should satisfy yourself about the completeness or accuracy of any information or materials. This document and the material contained in it is the property of Knight Frank and is given to you on the understanding that such material and the ideas, concepts and proposals expressed in it are the intellectual property of Knight Frank and protected by copyright. It is understood that you may not use this material or any part of it for any reason other than the evaluation of the document unless we have entered into a further agreement for its use. This document is provided to you in confidence on the understanding it is not disclosed to anyone other than to your employees who need to evaluate it. 本文件及其内容只提供一般资料, 可能随时变更而不作另行通知所有图片只供展示用途本文件并不表示意图或暗示任何性质的代表或担保因使用此资料而直接或间接引致的损失或损毁, 莱坊恕不负责客户应自行确保数据或内容的完整和准确性本文件及其内容属莱坊所有, 使用者知悉其中的观点, 概念及建议均属莱坊的知识产权所有, 并受版权保护除了对上述文件作出评估外, 若非已与莱坊达成协议, 任何人不得以任何原因使用这些内容或其部分本文件在保密的情况下提供予使用者, 除参与评估此文件的人员外, 恕不得向任何人透露

2014 年前言房地产投资信托基金 (Real Estate Investment Trusts,REITs) 在海外早已发展成熟, 而香港政府去年也进一步准备放宽房托限制, 相比之下, 中国已经改革开放

2014 年前言房地产投资信托基金 (Real Estate Investment Trusts,REITs) 在海外早已发展成熟, 而香港政府去年也进一步准备放宽房托限制, 相比之下, 中国已经改革开放研究报告 REITs 中国路 2014 年 2014 年前言房地产投资信托基金 (Real Estate Investment Trusts,REITs) 在海外早已发展成熟, 而香港政府去年也进一步准备放宽房托限制, 相比之下, 中国已经改革开放三十年, 对房托发展至今还未