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1 Vol1 31, No12 March Population Research Susan E. Short ,, (event history analysis), (discrete time hazard model),,,: ;, :;;, ; Susan E. Short, 1 20,, ( ) (Burch and Gendell,1970 ;Chi et al.,1996 ;Davis,1955 ; Wein2 stein et al.,1990),,,, :,,?,, (CHNS), : (1) ; (2) ; (3) ( ) ( ) ; (4) CHNS, ,,,,, ( ) (Cohen,1976 ;Lee and Camp bell,1998 ;Wolf,1985), ( Parish and Whyte,

2 ) (Lee and Wang,1999), ( Fairbank, 1979 ; Freedman,1979 ; Zhao,2000) ; ( Fairbank,1979), ( Goode,1963) 1936, (1998),49 %, ;,, , ( Tsui,1989),,,, ( Hirschman and Minh,2002),,,, ( Zhao,2000), ,, (,2004) ;, , (,2006) :, % % % ; % %,0. 64 %,(,2006), (,2006),, %, 2000, 21 % 59 % 19 % ( CHNS, ), : , ,, : 2000, 1 11 ; ( 2002),,,, CHNS,1990 ( 2), %,3 % 5 %,,,,, 2, 20 % ( ) 2. 2 (Barber and Axinn,1998) (Coombs 1978, 1979),

3 2 Susan E. Short , CHNS ( ) / ( ) : :, ( Weinstein et al.,1990),,,, (Davis,1955 ;Davis and Blake,1956), (Weinstein et al.,1990),,, (Barber and Axinn,1998 ;Davis,1955),,, (Barber and Axinn,1998),, ( Zheng,2000),, (Davis,1955 ;Davis and Blake,1956),, 2. 3,, : (1) ( Guo and Li,1995 ;Weinstein et al.,1990) ; (2) (Morgan and Rindf uss, 1984) (Burch and Gendell,1970) ; (3) (Zheng,2000), (Morgan and Rindf uss,1984) ; (4),, ( Fricke and Teachman, 1993), ( Fricke and Teachman,1993 ;Qian,1997),,,:,, ;,, (Chen et al.,2000),,,,, (:Chamratrithirong et al.,1988 ;Morgan and Rindf uss,1984),

4 52 31,,,,, ( Fricke and Teachman, 1993),,,,,, (Morgan and Rindf uss,1984),,, (Mor2 gan and Rindf uss,1984),, 1949,20 30,,, : ;,, ;,, ;,,,,,,: (1) ; (2) ; (3) ; (4) ( CHNS) CHNS, , ( ), , ( ) 20 45,, , ,,,,,, (conditional likelihood approach) ( Guo,1993), ( ),, ( ), ;1997, ; (censoring), (left cen2 soring) (right censoring) (, , ), (1) (, ), (2) (,, ) : (1) (2) (risk/ hazard),,,, ( Guo,1993)

5 2 Susan E. Short 53 : (1),, ; (2) 45,, ; (3), (1) (2), ( ) CHNS, ( 97 %),1410, (person - month observations) [, (risk hazard) ] :, 9, 1, 0 CHNS ( ; ; / ; ; ) : (1) ; (2),, ( ) ( ), ( ) ; (3),, (time - varying covariate),,, ( Morgan and Rindf uss,1984),,,, ( ), ( < =, > = ), ( ),( ), ( 1/ 3,1/ 3 2/ 3, 2/ 3) (,, ) () ,,,,,, ( ),, ( ),,63 % ;,59 % 25 % 16 % 28 %,58 %,14 % ;, 82 %, 8 %, 10 %, : 35 %, 32 %,4 %, 32 % 39 % 29 % ; 25 % 61 % 14 %,2/ 3,11 %, 23 % 3. 3 ( Yamaguchi,1991),,:,,,,,,, (,2003) CHNS CHNS

6 54 31 () , STA TA ( 8 ),, : Log pit 1 - pit = t + x it x itk k,t = 1, 2, 3 (Allison,2000), ( ) - ( Goldstein et al.,1997),, Huber - White :; ;,, ( ) ( ) , - :,46, , 147, 5908,80 3 1, 2,, :, ( 3),, 4. 2, :,46, ,,, , , ( 4), :,( 4),, ( 1) 5,,,,, 2. 7, 6,, 8,, : ;

7 2 Susan E. Short / : ( ) :( ) ( ) ( < = = ) > = ( < = = ) > = ( = ) ( = ) ( 1/ 3 = ) 1/ 3 2/ / ( ) ( = ) Log likelihood Wald chi square Pseudo R DF : p <. 10 ; 3 p < 05 ; 33 <. 01 ; 333 p <. 001

8 / : ( ) :( ) ( ) ( ) ( < = = ) > = ( < = = ) > = ( = ) ( = ) ( 1/ 3 = ) 1/ 3 2/ / ( ) ( = ) Log likelihood Wald chi square Pseudo R DF :. p <. 10 ; 3 p < 01 5, 33 p <. 01 ; 333 p <. 001

9 2 Susan E. Short 57,; ,, :,,,, (, ), (, ),,,, :, (1) 1990 ; (2), ; (3) (),, (,, ), 2 4, 1,,?,, /,, ;, ( Fricke and Teachman,1993) Rindf uss and Morgan (1983),,,,,,,,,,,1970, 2 1 ( Parish and Whyte,1978) Merli and Smit h (2002),, 1980 (Whyte and Gu,1987) 1990 ( Greenhalgh et al.,1994),,, ( Fricke and Teachman,1993),,,, (Axinn and Fricke,1996), :,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

10 58 31, ;,, ;,,,, CHNS,,,,, CHNS,,, : 1.., ( )., SPSS., ,2006 ; 1 5.., Allison, P Survival Analysis Using the SAS System. SAS Publishing 7 Axinn, W. G., & Fricke, T Community context, women s natal kin ties, and demand for children : Macro - micro linkages in social demography. Rural Sociology 61 : Barber, J., & Axinn, W. G The impact of parental pressure for grandchildren on young people s entry into cohabitation and marriage. Population Studies 52 : Burch, T, & Gendell, M Extended family structure and fertility : some conceptual and methodological is2 sues. Journal of Marriage and the Family 32 : Chamratrithirong, A., Morgan, S. P., & Rindfuss, R. R Living arrangements and family formation. So2 cial forces 66 : Chen, F., S. Short, and B. Entwisle The impact of grandparental proximity on maternal childcare in Chi2 na. Population Research and Policy Review 19 : Chi, P., & Hsin, P Family structure and fertility behavior in Taiwan. Population Research and Policy Re2 view 15 : Cohen, M. L House United, House Divided : the Chinese Family in Taiwan. New York : Columbia Uni2 versity Press 14 Coombs, L How many children do couples really want?" Family Planning Perspectives 10 : Reproductive goals and achieved fertility : a fifteen - year perspective. Demography 16 : Davis, K Institutional patterns favoring high fertility in underdeveloped areas. Eugenics Quarterly 2 : Davis, K., & Blake, J Social structure and fertility : an analytical framework. Economic Development and Cultural Change 4 : Fairbank, J The United States and China (4th ed. ). Cambridge, MA : Harvard University Press 18 Freedman, M The Chinese domestic family : models. In G. W. Skinner (ed. ), The Study of Chinese Soci2 ety : Essays by Maurice Freedman (pp ). Stanford : Stanford University Press 19 Fricke, T., & Teachman, J. D Writing the names : marriage style, living arrangements, and first birth in2 terval in a Nepali society. Demography 30 : Goldstein, A., White, M., & Goldstein, S Migration, fertility, and state policy in Hubei Province, Chi2 na. Demography 34 :

11 2 Susan E. Short Goode, W. J World Revolution and Family Patterns. New York : Free Press of Glencoe 22 Greenhalgh, S., Zhu, C., & Li, N Restraining population growth in three Chinese village, Population and Development Review 16 : Guo, G Event - history analysis for left - truncated data. Sociological Methodology, San Francisco, CA : Blackwell Publishers, pp Guo, Z., and Y. Li Influencing factors on rural fertility. Collection of Research Papers of 1992 Fertility Sampling Survey in China, edited by Jiang, Z. China Population Publishing House, Beijing, China 25 Hirschman, Charles, and Nguyen Huu Minh Tradition and change in Vietnam family structure in the Red River Delta. Journal of Marriage and the Family 64 (4) : Lee, J. Z., & Campbell, C. D Headship succession and household division in three Chinese banner serf populations, Continuity and Change 13 : Lee, J. & Wang, F One Quarter of Humanity, Malthusian Mythology and Chinese Realities Cambridge : Harvard University Press Merli, M. G., & Smith, H. L Has the Chinese family planning policy been successful in changing fertility preferences? Demography 39 : Morgan, S. P., & Rindfuss, R. R Household structure and the tempo of family formation in comparative perspective. Population Studies 38 : Parish, W. L., and Whyte, M. K Village and Family in Contemporary China. Chicago, IL : The Universi2 ty of Chicago Press 32 Qian, Z Progression to second birth in China : a study of four rural counties. Population Studies 51 : Rindfuss, R. R., & S. P. Morgan Marriage, sex, and the first birth interval : the quiet revolution in A2 sia. Population and Development Review 9 : Short, S., Linmao, M, and Wentao Y Birth planning and sterilization in China. Population Studies 54 (3) : Tsui, M Change in Chinese urban family structure. Journal of Marriage and the Family 51 : Weinstein, M., Sun, T., Chang, M., & Freedman, R Household composition, extended kinship, and reproduction in Taiwan : Population Studies 44 : Whyte, M. K., and Gu, S. Z Popular response to China s fertility transition. Population and Development Review 13 : Wolf, A. P Family and Population in East Asian History, edited by Susan B. Hanley and Arthur Wolf. Calif. : Stanford University Press 39 Yamaguchi, Kazuo Event History Analysis. Applied Social Science Research Methods Series, Volume 28. Newbury Park, CA : Sage Publications, Inc :1 40 Zhao, Z Coresidential patterns in historical China : a simulation study. Population and Development Re2 view, 26 : Zheng, Z Social - demographic influence on first birth interval in China, Journal of Biosocial Science 32 : (: : )

Jul Journal of Chinese Women's Studies No. 4 Ser. No. 148 * CFPS 2010 C A Where does the Ti

Jul Journal of Chinese Women's Studies No. 4 Ser. No. 148 * CFPS 2010 C A Where does the Ti 2018 7 Jul. 2018 4 148 Journal of Chinese Women's Studies No. 4 Ser. No. 148 * 210023 CFPS 2010 C913. 68 A 1004-2563 2018 04-0019-14 Where does the Time Go Gender Differences in Time Use over the Life